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Forecast to 2027 #550

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merged 20 commits into from
Mar 24, 2022
Merged

Forecast to 2027 #550

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e47415e
Add 2023-26 calibration parameters
nikhilwoodruff Mar 18, 2022
f7ec5e3
Uprate benefits with CPI
nikhilwoodruff Mar 19, 2022
3521051
Fix Sept CPI
nikhilwoodruff Mar 19, 2022
7413740
Add uprating improvements
nikhilwoodruff Mar 21, 2022
9ab5bb5
Fix bugs
nikhilwoodruff Mar 22, 2022
46de33a
Recalibrate
nikhilwoodruff Mar 22, 2022
1bf5605
Update validation page
nikhilwoodruff Mar 22, 2022
9cd7228
Start takeup process
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
4c6c7d8
Use would_claim in place of claims_
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
684985f
Add takeup rates
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
1351128
Add takeup rates
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
0e60258
Apply formatting and recalibrate
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
79e070c
Adjust tests
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
205448e
Pass tests
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
7851282
Bump version
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
8596aea
Fix action
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
05b335d
Add auto-changelog and fix gh actions
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
531fa13
Add to changelog
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
1af8256
Add descriptions
nikhilwoodruff Mar 23, 2022
861745b
Recalibrate
nikhilwoodruff Mar 24, 2022
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24 changes: 24 additions & 0 deletions .vscode/yaml.code-snippets
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -46,5 +46,29 @@
" ${4:expected output here}"
],
"description": "Insert a basic OpenFisca parameter for one person."
},
"2019-2025 (millions) OpenFisca parameter": {
"prefix": "1926bn",
"body": [
"2019-01-01: ${1}_000_000",
"2020-01-01: ${2}_000_000",
"2021-01-01: ${3}_000_000",
"2022-01-01: ${4}_000_000",
"2023-01-01: ${5}_000_000",
"2024-01-01: ${6}_000_000",
"2025-01-01: ${7}_000_000",
]
},
"2019-2025 (thousands) OpenFisca parameter": {
"prefix": "1926mn",
"body": [
"2019-01-01: ${1}_000",
"2020-01-01: ${2}_000",
"2021-01-01: ${3}_000",
"2022-01-01: ${4}_000",
"2023-01-01: ${5}_000",
"2024-01-01: ${6}_000",
"2025-01-01: ${7}_000",
]
}
}
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions docs/book/model/child_benefit.ipynb
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Expand Up @@ -1497,7 +1497,7 @@
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
"display_name": "Python 3",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
Expand All @@ -1511,7 +1511,7 @@
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.7.11"
"version": "3.8.8"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
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278,287 changes: 212,311 additions & 65,976 deletions docs/book/model/reweighting.ipynb
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions docs/book/model/stamp_duty.ipynb
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Expand Up @@ -2384,7 +2384,7 @@
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
"display_name": "Python 3",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
Expand All @@ -2398,7 +2398,7 @@
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.7.11"
"version": "3.8.8"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions docs/book/model/tax_credits.ipynb
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Expand Up @@ -2453,7 +2453,7 @@
],
"metadata": {
"kernelspec": {
"display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)",
"display_name": "Python 3",
"language": "python",
"name": "python3"
},
Expand All @@ -2467,7 +2467,7 @@
"name": "python",
"nbconvert_exporter": "python",
"pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
"version": "3.7.11"
"version": "3.8.8"
}
},
"nbformat": 4,
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170 changes: 170 additions & 0 deletions docs/book/model/ukmod_country_report_statistics.yaml
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@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
ukmod:
description: Statistics for UKMOD as published by their country report.
metadata:
reference:
- title: UKMOD Country report 2019-2025
href: https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/cempa/cempa2-22.pdf
budgetary_impact:
child_benefit:
values:
2019-01-01: 11_340_000_000
2020-01-01: 11_539_000_000
2021-01-01: 11_703_000_000
2022-01-01: 11_963_000_000
2023-01-01: 12_331_000_000
2024-01-01: 12_547_000_000
2025-01-01: 12_579_000_000
working_tax_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 2_138_000_000
2020-01-01: 2_412_000_000
2021-01-01: 2_099_000_000
2022-01-01: 1_573_000_000
2023-01-01: 1_320_000_000
2024-01-01: 897_000_000
2025-01-01: 423_000_000
child_tax_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 8_451_000_000
2020-01-01: 7_795_000_000
2021-01-01: 6_538_000_000
2022-01-01: 5_382_000_000
2023-01-01: 4_546_000_000
2024-01-01: 3_287_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_461_000_000
ESA_income:
values:
2019-01-01: 6_141_000_000
2020-01-01: 5_521_000_000
2021-01-01: 4_772_000_000
2022-01-01: 4_203_000_000
2023-01-01: 3_664_000_000
2024-01-01: 2_680_000_000
2025-01-01: 1_221_000_000
universal_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 17_419_000_000
2020-01-01: 26_397_000_000
2021-01-01: 29_821_000_000
2022-01-01: 34_073_000_000
2023-01-01: 39_133_000_000
2024-01-01: 39_133_000_000
2025-01-01: 45_644_000_000
pension_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 4_442_000_000
2020-01-01: 4_553_000_000
2021-01-01: 4_055_000_000
2022-01-01: 4_153_000_000
2023-01-01: 4_410_000_000
2024-01-01: 4_491_000_000
2025-01-01: 4_466_000_000
housing_benefit:
values:
2019-01-01: 12_560_000_000
2020-01-01: 12_319_000_000
2021-01-01: 10_955_000_000
2022-01-01: 10_332_000_000
2023-01-01: 9_622_000_000
2024-01-01: 8_476_000_000
2025-01-01: 6_706_000_000
income_tax:
values:
2019-01-01: 163_270_000_000
2020-01-01: 159_230_000_000
2021-01-01: 152_443_000_000
2022-01-01: 161_197_000_000
2023-01-01: 170_626_000_000
2024-01-01: 178_488_000_000
2025-01-01: 187_865_000_000
total_NI:
values:
2019-01-01: 149_412_000_000
2020-01-01: 140_831_000_000
2021-01-01: 137_694_000_000
2022-01-01: 156_016_000_000
2023-01-01: 145_114_000_000
2024-01-01: 147_890_000_000
2025-01-01: 151_875_000_000
nonzero_units:
child_benefit:
values:
2019-01-01: 7_102_000
2020-01-01: 7_094_000
2021-01-01: 7_159_000
2022-01-01: 7_116_000
2023-01-01: 7_072_000
2024-01-01: 7_022_000
2025-01-01: 6_990_000
working_tax_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 810_000
2020-01-01: 621_000
2021-01-01: 664_000
2022-01-01: 540_000
2023-01-01: 443_000
2024-01-01: 297_000
2025-01-01: 129_000
child_tax_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 1_737_000
2020-01-01: 1_480_000
2021-01-01: 1_312_000
2022-01-01: 1_080_000
2023-01-01: 890_000
2024-01-01: 643_000
2025-01-01: 292_000
ESA_income:
values:
2019-01-01: 891_000
2020-01-01: 793_000
2021-01-01: 680_000
2022-01-01: 581_000
2023-01-01: 489_000
2024-01-01: 342_000
2025-01-01: 146_000
universal_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 2_128_000
2020-01-01: 3_147_000
2021-01-01: 3_566_000
2022-01-01: 4_214_000
2023-01-01: 4_656_000
2024-01-01: 5_311_000
2025-01-01: 6_146_000
pension_credit:
values:
2019-01-01: 1_522_000
2020-01-01: 1_546_000
2021-01-01: 1_422_000
2022-01-01: 1_413_000
2023-01-01: 1_445_000
2024-01-01: 1_442_000
2025-01-01: 1_417_000
housing_benefit:
values:
2019-01-01: 2_912_000
2020-01-01: 2_685_000
2021-01-01: 2_435_000
2022-01-01: 2_262_000
2023-01-01: 2_050_000
2024-01-01: 1_783_000
2025-01-01: 1_432_000
income_tax:
values:
2019-01-01: 39_853_000
2020-01-01: 29_545_000
2021-01-01: 29_431_000
2022-01-01: 30_011_000
2023-01-01: 30_583_000
2024-01-01: 30_939_000
2025-01-01: 31_466_000
total_NI:
values:
2019-01-01: 26_923_000
2020-01-01: 20_323_000
2021-01-01: 25_266_000
2022-01-01: 26_084_000
2023-01-01: 26_194_000
2024-01-01: 26_239_000
2025-01-01: 26_271_000
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