diff --git a/.circleci/workflows.yml b/.circleci/workflows.yml
index 5d8c6d58c1d8..15701f41fac8 100644
--- a/.circleci/workflows.yml
+++ b/.circleci/workflows.yml
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ mainBuildFilters: &mainBuildFilters
       only:
         - develop
         - /^release\/\d+\.\d+\.\d+$/
-        - 'mschile/chrome_memory_fix'
+        - 'emily/next-version'
 
 # usually we don't build Mac app - it takes a long time
 # but sometimes we want to really confirm we are doing the right thing
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ commands:
       - run:
           name: Check current branch to persist artifacts
           command: |
-            if [[ "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "develop" && "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "release/"* && "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "mschile/chrome_memory_fix" ]]; then
+            if [[ "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "develop" && "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "release/"* && "$CIRCLE_BRANCH" != "emily/next-version" ]]; then
               echo "Not uploading artifacts or posting install comment for this branch."
               circleci-agent step halt
             fi
diff --git a/cli/lib/tasks/cache.js b/cli/lib/tasks/cache.js
index cb653acb7309..15a19a841c6f 100644
--- a/cli/lib/tasks/cache.js
+++ b/cli/lib/tasks/cache.js
@@ -33,14 +33,14 @@ const clear = () => {
 
 const prune = () => {
   const cacheDir = state.getCacheDir()
-  const currentVersion = util.pkgVersion()
+  const checkedInBinaryVersion = util.pkgVersion()
 
   let deletedBinary = false
 
   return fs.readdirAsync(cacheDir)
   .then((versions) => {
     return Bluebird.all(versions.map((version) => {
-      if (version !== currentVersion) {
+      if (version !== checkedInBinaryVersion) {
         deletedBinary = true
 
         const versionDir = join(cacheDir, version)
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ const prune = () => {
   })
   .then(() => {
     if (deletedBinary) {
-      logger.always(`Deleted all binary caches except for the ${currentVersion} binary cache.`)
+      logger.always(`Deleted all binary caches except for the ${checkedInBinaryVersion} binary cache.`)
     } else {
       logger.always(`No binary caches found to prune.`)
     }
diff --git a/cli/test/lib/tasks/cache_spec.js b/cli/test/lib/tasks/cache_spec.js
index 02d96504ba7a..bb74c2444bf0 100644
--- a/cli/test/lib/tasks/cache_spec.js
+++ b/cli/test/lib/tasks/cache_spec.js
@@ -136,14 +136,14 @@ describe('lib/tasks/cache', () => {
     it('deletes cache binaries for all version but the current one', async () => {
       await cache.prune()
 
-      const currentVersion = util.pkgVersion()
+      const checkedInBinaryVersion = util.pkgVersion()
 
       const files = await fs.readdir('/.cache/Cypress')
 
       expect(files.length).to.eq(1)
 
       files.forEach((file) => {
-        expect(file).to.eq(currentVersion)
+        expect(file).to.eq(checkedInBinaryVersion)
       })
 
       defaultSnapshot()
@@ -155,14 +155,14 @@ describe('lib/tasks/cache', () => {
       await fs.removeAsync(dir)
       await cache.prune()
 
-      const currentVersion = util.pkgVersion()
+      const checkedInBinaryVersion = util.pkgVersion()
 
       const files = await fs.readdirAsync('/.cache/Cypress')
 
       expect(files.length).to.eq(1)
 
       files.forEach((file) => {
-        expect(file).to.eq(currentVersion)
+        expect(file).to.eq(checkedInBinaryVersion)
       })
 
       defaultSnapshot()
diff --git a/scripts/binary/index.js b/scripts/binary/index.js
index 00efe9790f68..d90a5985c26a 100644
--- a/scripts/binary/index.js
+++ b/scripts/binary/index.js
@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+/* eslint-disable no-console */
 // store the cwd
 const cwd = process.cwd()
 
@@ -194,7 +195,7 @@ const deploy = {
 
     return askMissingOptions(['version', 'platform'])(options)
     .then(() => {
-      debug('building binary: platform %s version %s', options.platform, options.version)
+      console.log('building binary: platform %s version %s', options.platform, options.version)
 
       return build.buildCypressApp(options)
     })
diff --git a/scripts/get-next-version.js b/scripts/get-next-version.js
index 58ac78c5edc0..2f71f5c6f159 100644
--- a/scripts/get-next-version.js
+++ b/scripts/get-next-version.js
@@ -1,18 +1,20 @@
 /* eslint-disable no-console */
 
-// See ../guides/next-version.md for documentation.
-
 const path = require('path')
 const semver = require('semver')
 const bumpCb = require('conventional-recommended-bump')
 const { promisify } = require('util')
 
-const currentVersion = require('../package.json').version
+const checkedInBinaryVersion = require('../package.json').version
 const { changeCatagories } = require('./semantic-commits/change-categories')
+const { getCurrentReleaseData } = require('./semantic-commits/get-current-release-data')
+
 const bump = promisify(bumpCb)
 const paths = ['packages', 'cli']
 
 const getNextVersionForPath = async (path) => {
+  const { version: releasedVersion } = await getCurrentReleaseData(false)
+
   let commits
   const whatBump = (foundCommits) => {
     // semantic version bump: 0 - major, 1 - minor, 2 - patch
@@ -48,9 +50,20 @@ const getNextVersionForPath = async (path) => {
     path,
   })
 
+  let nextVersion = semver.inc(checkedInBinaryVersion, releaseType || 'patch')
+
+  const hasVersionBump = checkedInBinaryVersion !== releasedVersion
+
+  // See ../guides/next-version.md for documentation.
+  // for the time being, honoring this ENV -- ideally this will be deleted to remove manually overriding without a PR
+  if (process.env.NEXT_VERSION) {
+    nextVersion = process.env.NEXT_VERSION
+  } else if (hasVersionBump) {
+    nextVersion = checkedInBinaryVersion
+  }
+
   return {
-    // allow the semantic next version to be overridden by environment
-    nextVersion: process.env.NEXT_VERSION || semver.inc(currentVersion, releaseType || 'patch'),
+    nextVersion,
     commits,
   }
 }
@@ -93,7 +106,7 @@ if (require.main !== module) {
 
   const { nextVersion } = await getNextVersionForBinary()
 
-  if (process.argv.includes('--npm')) {
+  if (process.argv.includes('--npm') && checkedInBinaryVersion !== nextVersion) {
     const cmd = `npm --no-git-tag-version version ${nextVersion}`
 
     console.log(`Running '${cmd}'...`)
diff --git a/scripts/npm-release.js b/scripts/npm-release.js
index 3610aa574f5a..70f4baf5de8b 100644
--- a/scripts/npm-release.js
+++ b/scripts/npm-release.js
@@ -5,8 +5,8 @@
 /* eslint-disable no-console */
 const execa = require('execa')
 const fs = require('fs')
-const path = require('path')
 const semverSortNewestFirst = require('semver/functions/rcompare')
+const checkedInBinaryVersion = require('../package.json').version
 
 const { getCurrentBranch, getPackagePath, readPackageJson, independentTagRegex } = require('./utils')
 
@@ -27,14 +27,6 @@ const getTags = async () => {
   return stdout.split('\n')
 }
 
-const getBinaryVersion = async () => {
-  const { stdout: root } = await execa('git', ['rev-parse', '--show-toplevel'])
-  const rootPath = path.join(root, 'package.json')
-  const rootPackage = JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(rootPath))
-
-  return rootPackage.version
-}
-
 const parseSemanticReleaseOutput = (output) => {
   const currentVersion = (output.match(/associated with version (\d+\.\d+\.\d+-?\S*)/) || [])[1]
   const nextVersion = (output.match(/next release version is (\d+\.\d+\.\d+-?\S*)/) || [])[1]
@@ -71,13 +63,11 @@ const getCurrentVersion = async (name) => {
 const getPackageVersions = async (packages) => {
   console.log(`Finding package versions...\n`)
 
-  const binaryVersion = await getBinaryVersion()
-
-  console.log(`Cypress binary: ${binaryVersion}`)
+  console.log(`Cypress binary: ${checkedInBinaryVersion}`)
 
   const versions = {
     cypress: {
-      currentVersion: binaryVersion,
+      currentVersion: checkedInBinaryVersion,
       nextVersion: undefined,
     },
   }
@@ -232,7 +222,6 @@ if (require.main === module) {
 }
 
 module.exports = {
-  getBinaryVersion,
   parseSemanticReleaseOutput,
   readPackageJson,
   releasePackages,
diff --git a/scripts/semantic-commits/get-binary-release-data.js b/scripts/semantic-commits/get-binary-release-data.js
index c055af64dca2..98301b2e2340 100644
--- a/scripts/semantic-commits/get-binary-release-data.js
+++ b/scripts/semantic-commits/get-binary-release-data.js
@@ -1,32 +1,14 @@
 /* eslint-disable no-console */
-const execa = require('execa')
+const childProcess = require('child_process')
 const _ = require('lodash')
 const { Octokit } = require('@octokit/core')
 
+const { getCurrentReleaseData } = require('./get-current-release-data')
 const { getNextVersionForBinary } = require('../get-next-version')
 const { getLinkedIssues } = require('./get-linked-issues')
 
 const octokit = new Octokit({ auth: process.env.GITHUB_TOKEN })
 
-/**
- * Get the version, commit date and git sha of the latest tag published on npm.
- */
-const getCurrentReleaseData = async () => {
-  console.log('Get Current Release Information\n')
-  const { stdout } = await execa('npm', ['info', 'cypress', '--json'])
-  const npmInfo = JSON.parse(stdout)
-
-  const latestReleaseInfo = {
-    version: npmInfo['dist-tags'].latest,
-    commitDate: npmInfo.buildInfo.commitDate,
-    buildSha: npmInfo.buildInfo.commitSha,
-  }
-
-  console.log({ latestReleaseInfo })
-
-  return latestReleaseInfo
-}
-
 /**
  * Get the list of file names that have been added, deleted or changed since the git
  * sha associated with the latest tag published on npm.
@@ -36,8 +18,8 @@ const getCurrentReleaseData = async () => {
  * @param {string} latestReleaseInfo.commitDate - data of release
  * @param {string} latestReleaseInfo.buildSha - git commit associated with published content
  */
-const getChangedFilesSinceLastRelease = async (latestReleaseInfo) => {
-  const { stdout } = await execa('git', ['diff', `${latestReleaseInfo.buildSha}..`, '--name-only'])
+const getChangedFilesSinceLastRelease = (latestReleaseInfo) => {
+  const stdout = childProcess.execSync(`git diff ${latestReleaseInfo.buildSha}.. --name-only`)
 
   if (!stdout) {
     console.log('no files changes since last release')
@@ -117,7 +99,6 @@ const getReleaseData = async (latestReleaseInfo) => {
 
 if (require.main !== module) {
   module.exports = {
-    getCurrentReleaseData,
     getReleaseData,
   }
 
diff --git a/scripts/semantic-commits/get-current-release-data.js b/scripts/semantic-commits/get-current-release-data.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..d031c5160d4d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/semantic-commits/get-current-release-data.js
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+/* eslint-disable no-console */
+const childProcess = require('child_process')
+
+/**
+ * Get the version, commit date and git sha of the latest tag published on npm.
+ */
+const getCurrentReleaseData = (verbose = true) => {
+  verbose && console.log('Get Current Release Information\n')
+
+  const stdout = childProcess.execSync('npm info cypress --json')
+  const npmInfo = JSON.parse(stdout)
+
+  const latestReleaseInfo = {
+    version: npmInfo['dist-tags'].latest,
+    commitDate: npmInfo.buildInfo.commitDate,
+    buildSha: npmInfo.buildInfo.commitSha,
+  }
+
+  verbose && console.log({ latestReleaseInfo })
+
+  return latestReleaseInfo
+}
+
+module.exports = {
+  getCurrentReleaseData,
+}
diff --git a/scripts/semantic-commits/validate-binary-changelog.js b/scripts/semantic-commits/validate-binary-changelog.js
index 1ee3c9fa890c..865d2b557346 100644
--- a/scripts/semantic-commits/validate-binary-changelog.js
+++ b/scripts/semantic-commits/validate-binary-changelog.js
@@ -1,19 +1,18 @@
 /* eslint-disable no-console */
-const { getBinaryVersion } = require('../npm-release')
 const { validateChangelog } = require('./validate-changelog')
-const { getCurrentReleaseData, getReleaseData } = require('./get-binary-release-data')
+const { getCurrentReleaseData } = require('./get-current-release-data')
+const { getReleaseData } = require('./get-binary-release-data')
+const checkedInBinaryVersion = require('../../package.json').version
 
 const changelog = async () => {
   const latestReleaseInfo = await getCurrentReleaseData()
 
   if (process.env.CIRCLECI) {
-    const checkedInBinaryVersion = await getBinaryVersion()
-
     console.log({ checkedInBinaryVersion })
 
     const hasVersionBump = checkedInBinaryVersion !== latestReleaseInfo.version
 
-    if (process.env.CIRCLE_BRANCH !== 'develop' || !/^release\/\d+\.\d+\.\d+$/.test(process.env.CIRCLE_BRANCH) || !hasVersionBump) {
+    if (process.env.CIRCLE_BRANCH !== 'develop' && !/^release\/\d+\.\d+\.\d+$/.test(process.env.CIRCLE_BRANCH) && !hasVersionBump) {
       console.log('Only verify the entire changelog for develop, a release branch or any branch that bumped to the Cypress version in the package.json.')
 
       return
diff --git a/scripts/unit/get-next-version-spec.js b/scripts/unit/get-next-version-spec.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..aafcd17ac746
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/unit/get-next-version-spec.js
@@ -0,0 +1,183 @@
+const { expect, use } = require('chai')
+const proxyquire = require('proxyquire').noCallThru()
+const sinon = require('sinon')
+
+use(require('sinon-chai'))
+
+describe('get-next-version', () => {
+  const releasedVersion = '12.2.0'
+  let getNextVersionForPath
+  let getNextVersionForBinary
+  let bumpStub
+  let getCurrentReleaseDataStub
+
+  afterEach(() => {
+    delete process.env.NEXT_VERSION
+  })
+
+  beforeEach(() => {
+    sinon.restore()
+
+    bumpStub = sinon.stub()
+    getCurrentReleaseDataStub = sinon.stub()
+    getCurrentReleaseDataStub.resolves({
+      version: releasedVersion,
+    })
+
+    const npmRelease = proxyquire('../get-next-version', {
+      'conventional-recommended-bump': bumpStub,
+      './semantic-commits/get-current-release-data': {
+        getCurrentReleaseData: getCurrentReleaseDataStub,
+      },
+      '../package.json': sinon.stub({ version: releasedVersion }),
+    })
+
+    getNextVersionForPath = npmRelease.getNextVersionForPath
+    getNextVersionForBinary = npmRelease.getNextVersionForBinary
+  })
+
+  context('#getNextVersionForPath', () => {
+    it('determines next version is patch', async () => {
+      const semanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        const { level } = whatBump(semanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(2)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'patch' })
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForPath('packages')
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('12.2.1')
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(semanticCommits)
+    })
+
+    it('determines next version is minor', async () => {
+      const semanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix' },
+        { type: 'feat' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        const { level } = whatBump(semanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(1)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'minor' })
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForPath('packages')
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('12.3.0')
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(semanticCommits)
+    })
+
+    it('determines next version is major', async () => {
+      const semanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix' },
+        { type: 'feat' },
+        { type: 'breaking' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        const { level } = whatBump(semanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(0)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'major' })
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForPath('packages')
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('13.0.0')
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(semanticCommits)
+    })
+
+    it('honors package.json version when its been bumped', async () => {
+      const semanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        const { level } = whatBump(semanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(2)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'patch' })
+      })
+
+      getCurrentReleaseDataStub.resolves({
+        // package version !== release version assumed check in version is correct
+        version: '12.2.2',
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForPath('packages')
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('12.2.0')
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(semanticCommits)
+    })
+
+    it('honors NEXT_VERSION env', async () => {
+      process.env.NEXT_VERSION = '15.0.0'
+      const semanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        const { level } = whatBump(semanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(2)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'patch' })
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForPath('packages', '12.2.2')
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('15.0.0')
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(semanticCommits)
+    })
+  })
+
+  context('#getNextVersionForBinary', () => {
+    it('determines next version for all cli & packages changes', async () => {
+      let calls = 0
+      const cliSemanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'fix', title: 'fix: cli' },
+        { type: 'fix', title: 'fix: typescript' },
+        { type: 'dependency', title: 'dependency: security update' },
+      ]
+
+      const packagesSemanticCommits = [
+        { type: 'feat', title: 'feat: add new command' },
+      ]
+
+      bumpStub.callsFake(async ({ whatBump, _path }, cb) => {
+        if (calls === 0) {
+          const { level } = whatBump(packagesSemanticCommits)
+
+          expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(1)
+          calls++
+
+          return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'minor' })
+        }
+
+        const { level } = whatBump(cliSemanticCommits)
+
+        expect(level, 'semantic bump level').to.eq(2)
+
+        return cb(undefined, { releaseType: 'patch' })
+      })
+
+      const { nextVersion, commits } = await getNextVersionForBinary('packages', releasedVersion)
+
+      expect(nextVersion).to.eq('12.3.0')
+
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(packagesSemanticCommits)
+      expect(commits).to.contain.members(cliSemanticCommits)
+    })
+  })
+})
diff --git a/system-tests/lib/performance-reporter.js b/system-tests/lib/performance-reporter.js
index fe304ff2c0c2..9dddab2d6720 100644
--- a/system-tests/lib/performance-reporter.js
+++ b/system-tests/lib/performance-reporter.js
@@ -38,7 +38,10 @@ circleCiRootEvent.add({
 
 // Therefore, we have each honeycomb event await this promise
 // before sending itself.
-let asyncInfo = Promise.all([getNextVersionForPath(path.resolve(__dirname, '../../packages')), commitInfo()])
+let asyncInfo = Promise.all([
+  getNextVersionForPath(path.resolve(__dirname, '../../packages')),
+  commitInfo(),
+])
 .then(([{ nextVersion }, commitInformation]) => {
   const ciInformation = ciProvider.commitParams() || {}