Modeling of 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data

• Application of the model to a few countries data, see model.ipynb
• Comparision of the pandemic develompent in a few countries, see countries.ipynb

Model

We applied Gompertz curve to model COVID-19 pandemic data:

$$f\left(t\right) = a\mathrm{e}^{-b\mathrm{e}^{-ct}}$$

where

• $a$ is an asymptote, since $\lim_{t \rightarrow \inf} a\mathrm{e}^{-b\mathrm{e}^{-ct}} = a\mathrm{e}^{0}=a$
• $b$ sets the displacement along the x-axis (translates the graph to the left or right).
• $c$ sets the growth rate (y scaling)

The rate of growth:

$$r=\frac{f'(t)}{f(t)}=bc\mathrm{e}^{-ct}$$