diff --git a/lib/maths/CTrendComponent.cc b/lib/maths/CTrendComponent.cc
index 2ca1ccba67..8b603c8d8e 100644
--- a/lib/maths/CTrendComponent.cc
+++ b/lib/maths/CTrendComponent.cc
@@ -59,6 +59,7 @@ const std::string RESIDUAL_MOMENTS_TAG{"c"};
 const double TIME_SCALES[]{144.0, 72.0, 36.0, 12.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.25, 0.05};
 const std::size_t NUMBER_MODELS{boost::size(TIME_SCALES)};
 const double MAX_CONDITION{1e12};
+const double MINIMUM_WEIGHT_TO_USE_MODEL_FOR_PREDICTION{0.01};
 const core_t::TTime UNSET_TIME{0};
 }
 
@@ -210,11 +211,16 @@ CTrendComponent::TDoubleDoublePr CTrendComponent::value(core_t::TTime time,
     double scaledTime{scaleTime(time, m_RegressionOrigin)};
 
     TMeanAccumulator prediction_;
-    {
-        TDoubleVec factors(this->factors(std::abs(time - m_LastUpdate)));
-        for (std::size_t i = 0u; i < NUMBER_MODELS; ++i) {
-            prediction_.add(m_Models[i].s_Regression.predict(scaledTime, MAX_CONDITION),
-                            factors[i] * CBasicStatistics::mean(m_Models[i].s_Weight));
+
+    TDoubleVec weights(this->factors(std::abs(time - m_LastUpdate)));
+    double Z{0.0};
+    for (std::size_t i = 0u; i < NUMBER_MODELS; ++i) {
+        weights[i] *= CBasicStatistics::mean(m_Models[i].s_Weight);
+        Z += weights[i];
+    }
+    for (std::size_t i = 0u; i < NUMBER_MODELS; ++i) {
+        if (weights[i] > MINIMUM_WEIGHT_TO_USE_MODEL_FOR_PREDICTION * Z) {
+            prediction_.add(m_Models[i].s_Regression.predict(scaledTime, MAX_CONDITION), weights[i]);
         }
     }
 
diff --git a/lib/maths/unittest/CForecastTest.cc b/lib/maths/unittest/CForecastTest.cc
index 6dc01fb764..819a488bdb 100644
--- a/lib/maths/unittest/CForecastTest.cc
+++ b/lib/maths/unittest/CForecastTest.cc
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ void CForecastTest::testDailyNoLongTermTrend() {
         return 40.0 + alpha * y[i / 6] + beta * y[(i / 6 + 1) % y.size()] + noise;
     };
 
-    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 64.0, 4.0, 0.13);
+    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 64.0, 5.0, 0.14);
 }
 
 void CForecastTest::testDailyConstantLongTermTrend() {
@@ -163,7 +163,7 @@ void CForecastTest::testComplexConstantLongTermTrend() {
                scale[d] * (20.0 + y[h] + noise);
     };
 
-    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 24.0, 17.0, 0.04);
+    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 24.0, 13.0, 0.01);
 }
 
 void CForecastTest::testComplexVaryingLongTermTrend() {
@@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ void CForecastTest::testComplexVaryingLongTermTrend() {
         return trend_.value(time_) + scale[d] * (20.0 + y[h] + noise);
     };
 
-    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 4.0, 23.0, 0.05);
+    this->test(trend, bucketLength, 60, 4.0, 24.0, 0.051);
 }
 
 void CForecastTest::testNonNegative() {
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@ void CForecastTest::testFinancialIndex() {
     //file << "my = " << core::CContainerPrinter::print(my) << ";\n";
     //file << "uy = " << core::CContainerPrinter::print(uy) << ";\n";
 
-    CPPUNIT_ASSERT(percentageOutOfBounds < 53.0);
+    CPPUNIT_ASSERT(percentageOutOfBounds < 52.0);
     CPPUNIT_ASSERT(maths::CBasicStatistics::mean(error) < 0.1);
 }