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+
+
+
+ 20240520T205043-75c2090e43f94eec4b0640f83c00912b8a1effb3
+ 20240520205043
+
+ JOSS Admin
+ admin@theoj.org
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+ The Open Journal
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+ Journal of Open Source Software
+ JOSS
+ 2475-9066
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+ https://joss.theoj.org
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+
+
+ 05
+ 2024
+
+
+ 9
+
+ 97
+
+
+
+ Kirstine.jl: A Julia Package for Bayesian Optimal
+Design of Experiments
+
+
+
+ Ludger
+ Sandig
+ https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3174-3275
+
+
+
+ 05
+ 20
+ 2024
+
+
+ 6424
+
+
+ 10.21105/joss.06424
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+ 10.21105/joss.06424
+ https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.06424
+
+
+ https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.06424.pdf
+
+
+
+
+
+ Julia: A fresh approach to numerical
+computing
+ Bezanson
+ SIAM review
+ 1
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+ 10.1137/141000671
+ 2017
+ Bezanson, J., Edelman, A., Karpinski,
+S., & Shah, V. B. (2017). Julia: A fresh approach to numerical
+computing. SIAM Review, 59(1), 65–98.
+https://doi.org/10.1137/141000671
+
+
+ DoseFinding: Planning and analyzing dose
+finding experiments
+ Bornkamp
+ 2023
+ Bornkamp, B., Pinheiro, J., Bretz,
+F., & Sandig, L. (2023). DoseFinding: Planning and analyzing dose
+finding experiments.
+https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=DoseFinding
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+ Bayesian experimental design: A
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+ 10.1214/ss/1177009939
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+(1995). Bayesian experimental design: A review. Statistical Science,
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+https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177009939
+
+
+ Optimal design for nonlinear response
+models
+ Fedorov
+ 10.1201/b15054
+ 2013
+ Fedorov, V. V., & Leonov, S. L.
+(2013). Optimal design for nonlinear response models. CRC Press.
+https://doi.org/10.1201/b15054
+
+
+ POPED, a software for optimal experiment
+design in population kinetics
+ Foracchia
+ Computer Methods and Programs in
+Biomedicine
+ 74
+ 10.1016/s0169-2607(03)00073-7
+ 2004
+ Foracchia, M., Hooker, A. C., Vicini,
+P., & Ruggeri, A. (2004). POPED, a software for optimal experiment
+design in population kinetics. Computer Methods and Programs in
+Biomedicine, 74.
+https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2607(03)00073-7
+
+
+ ICAOD: Optimal designs for nonlinear
+statistical models by imperialist competitive algorithm
+(ICA)
+ Masoudi
+ 2020
+ Masoudi, E., Holling, H., & Wong,
+W. K. (2020). ICAOD: Optimal designs for nonlinear statistical models by
+imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA).
+https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ICAOD
+
+
+ PopED: An extended, parallelized, nonlinear
+mixed effects models optimal design tool
+ Nyberg
+ Computer Methods and Programs in
+Biomedicine
+ 108
+ 10.1016/j.cmpb.2012.05.005
+ 2012
+ Nyberg, J., Ueckert, S., Stroemberg,
+E. A., Hennig, S., Karlsson, M. O., & Hooker, A. C. (2012). PopED:
+An extended, parallelized, nonlinear mixed effects models optimal design
+tool. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, 108.
+https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmpb.2012.05.005
+
+
+ acebayes: An R package for Bayesian optimal
+design of experiments via approximate coordinate
+exchange
+ Overstall
+ Journal of Statistical
+Software
+ 13
+ 95
+ 10.18637/jss.v095.i13
+ 2020
+ Overstall, A. M., Woods, D. C., &
+Adamou, M. (2020). acebayes: An R package for Bayesian optimal design of
+experiments via approximate coordinate exchange. Journal of Statistical
+Software, 95(13), 1–33.
+https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v095.i13
+
+
+ A review of modern computational algorithms
+for Bayesian optimal design
+ Ryan
+ International Statistical
+Review
+ 1
+ 84
+ 10.1111/insr.12107
+ 2015
+ Ryan, E. G., Drovandi, C. C., McGree,
+J. M., & Pettitt, A. N. (2015). A review of modern computational
+algorithms for Bayesian optimal design. International Statistical
+Review, 84(1), 128–154.
+https://doi.org/10.1111/insr.12107
+
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+ On optimal designs for nonlinear models: A
+general and efficient algorithm
+ Yang
+ Journal of the American Statistical
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+ 504
+ 108
+ 10.1080/01621459.2013.806268
+ 2013
+ Yang, M., Biedermann, S., & Tang,
+E. (2013). On optimal designs for nonlinear models: A general and
+efficient algorithm. Journal of the American Statistical Association,
+108(504), 1411–1420.
+https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.806268
+
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+ Particle swarm optimization
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+ 10.1109/icnn.1995.488968
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+(1995). Particle swarm optimization. Proceedings of ICNN’95 -
+International Conference on Neural Networks, 4, 1942–1948.
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+
+
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+
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+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+Journal of Open Source Software
+JOSS
+
+2475-9066
+
+Open Journals
+
+
+
+6424
+10.21105/joss.06424
+
+Kirstine.jl: A Julia Package for Bayesian Optimal Design
+of Experiments
+
+
+
+https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3174-3275
+
+Sandig
+Ludger
+
+
+
+
+
+Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University,
+Germany
+
+
+
+
+8
+1
+2024
+
+9
+97
+6424
+
+Authors of papers retain copyright and release the
+work under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC
+BY 4.0)
+2022
+The article authors
+
+Authors of papers retain copyright and release the work under
+a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY
+4.0)
+
+
+
+Julia
+design of experiments
+Bayesian statistics
+
+
+
+
+
+ Summary
+
Good design of planned experiments increases the precision of
+ parameter estimates. In a dose-response study, for example, the
+ credible intervals for the response curve’s parameters are shorter
+ when the dose levels have been chosen carefully. The general
+ mathematical framework that guides the choice of values and weights
+ for the covariates in a regression model is called optimal design
+ theory. In the special case of nonlinear regression models, a
+ researcher must specify prior knowledge about the model parameters.
+ Accounting here for a full distribution of parameter values produces
+ designs that are more robust than designs for a single best guess. To
+ help compute such designs efficiently for general nonlinear regression
+ models, we propose the Julia
+ (Bezanson
+ et al., 2017) package Kirstine.jl.
+
+
+ Mathematical Background
+
Consider a nonlinear regression model with mean function
+
+
+ μ:X×Θ→ℝm,
+ known covariance matrix
+
+ Σ,
+ and compact design region
+
+
+ X⊂ℝd,
+ where we want to design an experiment for estimating the unknown
+ parameter
+
+ θ.
+ In nonlinear optimal design theory
+ (Fedorov
+ & Leonov, 2013), we represent the design by a probability
+ measure
+
+ ξ
+ on
+
+ X.
+ For every such design measure we define the
+ normalized information matrix
+
+
+ M(ξ,θ)=∫(Dθμ(x,θ))′Σ−1(Dθμ(x,θ))ξ(dx),
+ where
+
+ Dθμ
+ denotes the Jacobian matrix of
+
+ μ
+ with respect to
+
+ θ.
+ To obtain, on average, small confidence or posterior credible
+ intervals, we aim to construct a design
+
+ ξ*
+ that maximizes a functional
+
+ ϕ
+ of the normalized information matrix, with popular choices being the
+ D- or A-criterion
+
+
+ ϕD(M(ξ,θ))=logdet(M(ξ,θ)),ϕA(M(ξ,θ))=−tr(M(ξ,θ)−1).
+ Since
+
+ M(ξ,θ)
+ still depends on the unknown
+
+ θ,
+ we either plug in a best guess
+
+ θ0
+ and obtain a locally optimal design problem, or we
+ try to find a Bayesian optimal design that maximizes
+ the average of
+
+ ϕ
+ with respect to a prior distribution with density
+
+
+ p:Θ→[0,∞)
+ (Chaloner
+ & Verdinelli, 1995). Having obtained a candidate design
+
+
+ ξ*,
+ we then apply an equivalence theorem from infinite-dimensional convex
+ analysis to verify that the design
+
+ ξ*
+ is indeed optimal. The setup above can be generalized to designs that
+ are optimal for estimating a transformed
+
+
+ T(θ),
+ or to models where
+
+ Σ
+ also depends on
+
+ x.
+
To find a candidate design in practice, we must make three
+ simplifications. We first have to approximate the prior expectation,
+ since the integral is not tractable analytically. Monte-Carlo
+ (MC) integration
+
+ ∫ϕ(M(ξ,θ))p(θ)dθ≈1S∑s=1Sϕ(M(ξ,θ(s)))
+ is a versatile method for that because we can use it with any
+
+
+ p
+ from which we can draw a sample
+
+ θ(1),…,θ(S),
+
+
+ S∈ℕ.
+ Next, we reduce the search space from all probability measures on
+
+
+ X
+ to the subset of those that are discrete and have
+
+
+ K∈ℕ
+ design points. The optimal
+
+ K*
+ is usually not known beforehand, but as long as we do not enforce
+ unique design points, we may guess at a
+ K^*]]>
+ K>K*
+ and will still be able to find the solution. Finally, we have to
+ choose one of the many proposed algorithms
+ (Ryan
+ et al., 2015) for maximizing the objective function
+ numerically.
+
+
+ Statement of Need
+
Currently, most open-source experimental design software is
+ implemented in R. There is also a
+ Julia package that focuses on
+ factorial
+ design problems but does not address nonlinear regression.
+ Among the R packages
+ on
+ CRAN, only four deal with nonlinear regression models, and
+ all of them have to make a tradeoff between speed and flexibility.
+ With MC integration, thousands of information matrices, each built
+ from
+
+ K
+ Jacobian matrices
+
+ Dθμ,
+ have to be computed for one evaluation of the objective function. In
+ R, these matrix-valued functions are a
+ performance bottleneck since each call has to allocate new matrix
+ objects. To avoid the memory overhead, package authors can implement
+ internals in C and pass around pointers to
+ pre-allocated matrices. However, this requires the users to be
+ proficient in C in order to supply the Jacobian
+ matrices of their models. Consequently, packages either just accept
+ the slowdown
+ (Masoudi
+ et al., 2020), recommend using C++
+ (Overstall
+ et al., 2020), or come with a small set of models pre-specified
+ (Bornkamp
+ et al., 2023;
+ Foracchia
+ et al., 2004;
+ Nyberg
+ et al., 2012). Hence a design package is needed where knowledge
+ of only one language is required for efficiently implementing
+ arbitrary nonlinear regression models.
+
Kirstine.jl attempts to fill this gap in the
+ design software ecosystem. The package achieves modeling flexibility
+ through Julia’s multiple dispatch mechanism,
+ and performs matrix operations efficiently by passing object
+ references to BLAS and
+ LAPACK routines. It currently implements the D-
+ and A-criterion, vector-valued measurements, posterior transformations
+ of
+
+ θ
+ via the Delta method, box-shaped design regions of arbitrary
+ dimension, particle swarm optimization
+ (Kennedy
+ & Eberhart, 1995), and a variant of Fedorov’s coordinate
+ exchange algorithm
+ (Yang
+ et al., 2013). Plotting functions for checking the equivalence
+ theorem are also provided. Locally optimal design is supported
+ implicitly. Since user-defined Julia code does
+ not inherently incur performance penalties, specific regression models
+ are not supplied. Instead, users should first define subtypes of
+ NonlinearRegression,
+ Covariate, Parameter,
+ and CovariateParameterization, and then add
+ methods for a few functions that dispatch on them. Optionally, one of
+ Julia’s automatic differentiation packages can
+ be used. Kirstine.jl has a modular and readable
+ code base, which enables users to extend the package’s functionality
+ with drop-in replacements for new criteria, design regions, or even
+ custom optimization algorithms. Thanks to multiple dispatch, no
+ changes are required in the package internals. This way,
+ Kirstine.jl provides an additional level of
+ flexibility without sacrificing efficiency.
+
+
+ Acknowledgments
+
This work has been supported by the Research Training Group
+ Biostatistical Methods for High-Dimensional Data in
+ Toxicology (RTG 2624, Project P2), funded by the Deutsche
+ Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation – Project
+ Number 427806116).