diff --git a/part_III.m b/part_III.m index 7a9d36b..1f8dd99 100644 --- a/part_III.m +++ b/part_III.m @@ -92,6 +92,89 @@ xlabel('Days') ylabel('Cases') hold off; +%----------------------Higher Travel Rate Delta Wave------------------- +%Travel matrix 1 +S2to1 = 0.5; %travel rate of Susceptible pop2 to region 1 +I2to1 = 0.4; +R2to1 = 0.36; + +T_1 = [S2to1,0 ,0 ,0; + 0 ,I2to1 ,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,R2to1,0; + 0 ,0 ,0 ,0]; + +%Travel matrix 2 +S1to2 = 0.45; %travel rate of Susceptible pop1 to region 2 +I1to2 = 0.39; +R1to2 = 0.47; + +T_2 = [S1to2, 0 ,0 ,0; + 0 ,I1to2 ,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,R1to2,0; + 0 ,0 ,0 ,0]; +%Transition Matrix 1 +r_infec1 = unknowns_opt_D(1); +r_recover1 = unknowns_opt_D(3); +r_reinfec1 = unknowns_opt_D(2); +r_death1 = unknowns_opt_D(4); + +A_1 = [1-r_infec1 - S1to2, r_recover1 ,r_reinfec1 ,0; + r_infec1, 1-r_recover1-r_death1 - I1to2,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec1 - R1to2 ,0; + 0 ,r_death1, 0 ,1]; + + +%Transition Matrix 2 +r_infec2 = 0.15; +r_recover2 = 0.02; +r_reinfec2 = 0.04; +r_death2 = 0.03; + +A_2 = [1-r_infec2 - S2to1, r_recover2 ,r_reinfec2 ,0; + r_infec2, 1-r_recover2-r_death2 - I2to1,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec2 - R2to1,0; + 0 ,r_death2, 0 ,1]; + +%concatenating 4 matrices + +A_travel = [A_1,T_1;T_2,A_2]; + +%Initial SIRD conditions of region 1 and 2 + +sir_ini = [POP_1,0,0,0,POP_2,0,0,0]'; + +%days of interactions +t = 1000; + +sir_tot = zeros(8,t); +sir_tot(:,1) = sir_ini; + +for i = 2:t + sir_ini = A_travel * sir_ini; + sir_tot(:,i) = sir_ini; +end + +%extract data from interactions model +I_1 = sir_tot(2,:); +I_2 = sir_tot(6,:); + +D_1 = sir_tot(4,:); +D_2 = sir_tot(8,:); + +cum_cases_1 = cumsum(I_1)*POP_1; +cum_cases_2 = cumsum(I_2)*POP_2; + +%plotting the data + +figure; +hold on; +plot(cum_cases_1); +plot(cum_cases_2); +title('Higher Travel Rate Delta Wave Regions Interactions') +legend('Region 1 Cases','Region 2 Cases'); +xlabel('Days') +ylabel('Cases') +hold off; %-----------------------Restricted travel Policy Delta ------------------ @@ -118,6 +201,28 @@ 0 ,0 ,R1to2,0; 0 ,0 ,0 ,0]; +%Transition Matrix 1 +r_infec1 = unknowns_opt_D(1); +r_recover1 = unknowns_opt_D(3); +r_reinfec1 = unknowns_opt_D(2); +r_death1 = unknowns_opt_D(4); + +A_1 = [1-r_infec1 - S1to2, r_recover1 ,r_reinfec1 ,0; + r_infec1, 1-r_recover1-r_death1 - I1to2,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec1 - R1to2 ,0; + 0 ,r_death1, 0 ,1]; + + +%Transition Matrix 2 +r_infec2 = 0.15; +r_recover2 = 0.02; +r_reinfec2 = 0.04; +r_death2 = 0.03; + +A_2 = [1-r_infec2 - S2to1, r_recover2 ,r_reinfec2 ,0; + r_infec2, 1-r_recover2-r_death2 - I2to1,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec2 - R2to1,0; + 0 ,r_death2, 0 ,1]; %concatenating 4 matrices @@ -259,8 +364,6 @@ hold off; -%plotting the combined cum cases and deaths - %-----------------------Restricted travel Policy Omicron ------------------ %policy infected population in two @@ -284,7 +387,27 @@ 0 ,I1to2 ,0 ,0; 0 ,0 ,R1to2,0; 0 ,0 ,0 ,0]; +%Transition Matrix 1 +r_infec1 = unknowns_opt_O(1); +r_recover1 = unknowns_opt_O(3); +r_reinfec1 = unknowns_opt_O(2); +r_death1 = unknowns_opt_O(4); +A_1 = [1-r_infec1 - S1to2, r_recover1 ,r_reinfec1 ,0; + r_infec1, 1-r_recover1-r_death1 - I1to2,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec1 - R1to2 ,0; + 0 ,r_death1, 0 ,1]; + +%Transition Matrix 2 +r_infec2 = 0.3; +r_recover2 = 0.08; +r_reinfec2 = 0.04; +r_death2 = 0.03; + +A_2 = [1-r_infec2 - S2to1, r_recover2 ,r_reinfec2 ,0; + r_infec2, 1-r_recover2-r_death2 - I2to1,0 ,0; + 0 ,0 ,1-r_reinfec2 - R2to1,0; + 0 ,r_death2, 0 ,1]; %concatenating 4 matrices