The uncertainty of the ensemble mean is generally similar when computed with an historical ensemble and the corresponding piControl experiment.
This remains true for other epoch lengths: 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
and other variables:
Net Surface Heat flux: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
NHF regressed on SST: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
Sea Surface Height: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
SST regressed on SSH: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
SST: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
Taux: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
Taux regressed on SST: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
Tauy: 30, 45, 60, 75, 90-year epochs
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project: CMIP6
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experiments: piControl, historical
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epoch length: 30-year
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regions: Niño4 (5N-5S, 160E-150W), Niño3.4 (5N-5S, 120-170W), Niño3 (5N-5S, 90-150W)
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variable: PR (seasonal cycle removed for variance and skewness)
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statistics: mean, variance, skewness
Computed using equation (9) from Planton et al. (preprint)
<iframe src="f05_uncertainty_hi_vs_pi_pr_030_year_epoch.pdf" width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" />