如何获得幸运
Why do you say, “Get rich without getting lucky”?
你为什么说“致富不需走运”？
In 1,000 parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them. You don’t want to be wealthy in the fifty of them where you got lucky, so we want to factor luck out of it. 在1000个平行宇宙中，你想要在其中的999个中变得富有。你不会想要在你幸运的50个国家里变得富有，所以我们想把运气因素考虑在内。
But getting lucky would help, right?
但走运会有帮助的，对吧？
Just recently, Babak Nivi, my co -founder , and I were talking on Twitter about how one gets lucky, and there are really four kinds of luck we were talking about. 就在最近，我的联合创始人巴巴克·尼维(Babak Nivi)和我在推特上讨论了一个人是如何走运的，我们谈论的运气真的有四种。
The first kind of luck is blind luck where one just gets lucky because something completely out of their control happened. This includes fortune, fate, etc.
第一种运气是盲目的运气，人们只是因为发生了完全不受他们控制的事情而幸运。这包括财富、命运等。
Then, there’s luck through persistence, hard work, hustle, and motion. This is when you’re running around creating opportunities. You’re generating a lot of energy, you’re doing a lot to stir things up. It’s almost like mixing a petri dish or mixing a bunch of reagents and seeing what combines. You’re just generating enough force, hustle, and energy for luck to find you.
然后，通过坚持不懈、努力工作、匆忙和行动来获得运气。这是你四处奔跑创造机会的时候。你产生了很大的能量，你做了很多事情来挑起事端。这几乎就像混合一个培养皿或混合一堆试剂，然后看看是什么结合在一起。你只是产生了足够的力量、忙碌和能量，好让幸运找到你。
A third way is you become very good at spotting luck. If you are very skilled in a field, you will notice when a lucky break happens in your field, and other people who aren’t attuned to it won’t notice. So, you become sensitive to luck.
第三种方法是你变得非常善于发现运气。如果你在某一领域非常熟练，你会注意到在你的领域中发生幸运的机会，而其他不熟悉它的人不会注意到。所以，你对运气变得敏感。
The last kind of luck is the weirdest, hardest kind, where you build a unique character, a unique brand, a unique mindset, which causes luck to find you.
最后一种运气是最奇怪、最艰难的一种，你会建立一个独特的性格、独特的品牌、独特的心态，这会让运气来找你。
For example, let’s say you’re the best person in the world at deep -sea diving. You’re known to take on deep -sea dives nobody else will even dare to attempt. By sheer luck, somebody finds a sunken treasure ship off the coast they can’t get to. Well, their luck just became your luck, because they’re going to come to you to get to the treasure, and you’re going to get paid for it.
例如，假设你是世界上最擅长深海潜水的人。大家都知道你会进行深海潜水，其他人甚至都不敢尝试。幸运的是，有人在离海岸不远的地方发现了一艘沉没的宝船，他们无法到达那里。嗯，他们的运气就变成了你的运气，因为他们会来找你拿到宝藏，而你会为此得到报酬。
This is an extreme example, but it shows how one person had blind luck finding the treasure. Them coming to you to extract it and give you half is not blind luck. You created your own luck. You put yourself in a position to capitalize on luck or to attract luck when nobody else created the opportunity for themselves. To get rich without getting lucky, we want to be deterministic. We don’t want to leave it to chance. [78]
这是一个极端的例子，但它显示了一个人是如何盲目地幸运地找到了宝藏的。他们来找你提取并给你一半不是盲目的运气。你创造了你自己的运气。当没有人为自己创造机会时，你把自己放在利用运气或吸引运气的位置上。要想在不需走运的情况下致富，我们要有决定论的态度。我们不想让它听天由命。“[78]
Ways to get lucky:
幸运之道：
• Hope luck finds you.祝你好运降临。 • Hustle until you stumble into it. 忙碌到你跌跌撞撞地走进去。 • Prepare the mind and be sensitive to chances others miss. 做好思想准备，对其他人错过的机会保持敏感。 • Become the best at what you do. Refine what you do until this is true. Opportunity will seek you out. Luck becomes your destiny. 成为你所做的事情中的佼佼者。改进你所做的直到这是真的。机会会来找你的。运气就是你的命运。
It starts becoming so deterministic, it stops being luck. The definition starts fading from luck to destiny. To summarize the fourth type: build your character in a certain way, then your character becomes your destiny.
它开始变得如此确定，它不再是运气。这个定义开始从运气淡出到命运。总结第四种类型：以某种方式塑造你的性格，那么你的性格就成了你的命运。
One of the things I think is important to make money is having a reputation that makes people do deals through you. Remember the example of being a great diver where treasure hunters will come and give you a piece of the treasure for your diving skills.
我认为赚钱最重要的一件事是拥有让人们通过你进行交易的声誉。记住一个伟大的潜水员的例子，在那里寻宝者会来给你一块宝藏来奖励你的潜水技能。
If you are a trusted, reliable, high -integrity , long -term -thinking dealmaker, when other people want to do deals but don’t know how to do them in a trustworthy manner with strangers, they will literally approach you and give you a cut of the deal just because of the integrity and reputation you’ve built up.
如果你是一个值得信任的、可靠的、高度正直的、有长远思维的交易撮合者，当其他人想做交易，但不知道如何与陌生人以值得信赖的方式进行交易时，他们真的会接近你，仅仅因为你建立的诚信和声誉，他们就会给你分一杯羹。
Warren Buffett gets offered deals to buy companies, buy warrants, bail out banks, and do things other people can’t do because of his reputation. Of course, he has accountability on the line, and he has a strong brand on the line.
沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)得到了收购公司、购买认股权证、救助银行以及做其他人因为他的声誉而做不到的事情的交易。当然，他在线路上有责任，在线路上有强大的品牌。
Your character and your reputation are things you can build, which will let you take advantage of opportunities other people may characterize as lucky, but you know it wasn’t luck. [78] My co -founder Nivi said, “In a long -term game, it seems that everybody is making each other rich. And in a short -term game, it seems like everybody is making themselves rich.”
你的性格和声誉是你可以建立的，这会让你利用别人可能认为是幸运的机会，但你知道这不是运气。“[78]我的联合创始人尼维说，”在长期的游戏中，似乎每个人都在让彼此致富。而在短期博弈中，似乎每个人都在让自己致富。“
I think that is a brilliant formulation. In a long -term game, it’s positive sum. We’re all baking the pie together. We’re trying to make it as big as possible. And in a short -term game, we’re cutting up the pie. [78]
我认为这是一个很棒的提法。在长期博弈中，它是正和。我们都在一起烤馅饼。我们在努力把它做得尽可能大。在一个短期的游戏中，我们正在切馅饼。
How important is networking? 网络有多重要？
I think business networking is a complete waste of time. And I know there are people and companies popularizing this concept because it serves them and their business model well, but the reality is if you’re building something interesting, you will always have more people who will want to know you. Trying to build business relationships well in advance of doing business is a complete waste of time. I have a much more comfortable philosophy: “Be a maker who makes something interesting people want. Show your craft, practice your craft, and the right people will eventually find you.” [14]
我认为商务社交完全是浪费时间。我知道有些人和公司普及这一概念，因为它很好地服务于他们和他们的商业模式，但现实是，如果你正在建设一些有趣的东西，你总是会有更多的人想要了解你。试图在做生意之前很好地建立业务关系完全是浪费时间。我有一个更舒适的哲学：“做一个能制造出人们想要的有趣东西的制造者。展示你的手艺，练习你的手艺，合适的人最终会找到你。“ And once you’ve met someone, how do you determine if you can trust someone? What signals do you pay attention to?
一旦你遇到了某人，你如何确定你是否可以信任某人呢？你会注意哪些信号？
If someone is talking a lot about how honest they are, they’re probably dishonest. That is just a little telltale indicator I’ve learned. When someone spends too much time talking about their own values or they’re talking themselves up, they’re covering for something. [4]
如果有人喋喋不休地说他们有多诚实，那么他们很可能是不诚实的。这只是我学到的一个小小的指示器。当某人花太多时间谈论他们自己的价值观，或者他们在自吹自擂时，他们是在掩饰什么。
Sharks eat well but live a life surrounded by sharks.
鲨鱼吃得很好，但是生活在鲨鱼的包围之中。
I have great people in my life who are extremely successful, very desirable (like everybody wants to be their friend), very smart. Yet, I’ve seen them do one or two things slightly not great to other people. The first time, I’ll say, “Hey, I don’t think you should do this to that other person. Not because you won’t get away with it. You will get away with it, but because it will hurt you in the end.”
我的生活中有非常成功、非常令人向往(就像每个人都想成为他们的朋友)、非常聪明的伟人。然而，我看到他们做了一两件对其他人不太好的事情。第一次，我会说，“嘿，我认为你不应该这样对另一个人。不是因为你不会逍遥法外。你会逍遥法外，但因为它最终会伤害你。“
Not in some cosmic, karma kind of way, but I believe deep down we all know who we are. You cannot hide anything from yourself. Your own failures are written within your psyche, and they are obvious to you. If you have too many of these moral shortcomings, you will not respect yourself. The worst outcome in this world is not having self -esteem . If you don’t love yourself, who will?
不是以某种宇宙的、因果报应的方式，但我相信在内心深处我们都知道自己是谁。你不能对自己隐瞒任何事。你自己的失败写在你的心灵里，它们对你来说是显而易见的。如果你有太多这样的道德缺陷，你就不会尊重自己。这个世界上最糟糕的结果就是没有自尊。如果你不爱自己，谁会呢？ I think you just have to be very careful about doing things you are fundamentally not going to be proud of, because they will damage you. The first time someone acts this way, I will warn them. By the way, nobody changes. Then I just distance myself from them. I cut them out of my life. I just have this saying inside my head: “The closer you want to get to me, the better your values have to be.” [4] 我认为你只需要非常小心地做一些你根本不会引以为豪的事情，因为它们会伤害你。第一次有人这样做，我会警告他们。顺便说一下，没有人会改变。然后我就和他们保持距离。我把他们从我的生活中剔除。我脑子里只有一句话：“你越想接近我，你的价值观就必须越好。”