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outline.yaml
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toc:
title: Table Of Contents
page: 8
preface:
title: Preface
page: 12
parts:
- title: "PART I: Exploring and Understanding Data"
page: 24
chapters:
- title: "1 Stats Starts Here"
page: 25
sections:
- title: "So, What Is (Are?) Statistics?"
page: 24
- title: "Statistics in a Word"
page: 25
- title: "But What Are Data?"
page: 26
- title: "Who and What"
page: 27
- title: "How the Data Are Collected"
page: 27
- title: "More About Variables (What ?)"
page: 28
- title: "2 Displaying and Describing Categorical Data"
page: 37
sections:
- title: "The Three Rules of Data Analysis"
page: 38
- title: "The Area Principle"
page: 39
- title: "Frequency Tables: Making Piles"
page: 39
- title: "Bar Charts"
page: 40
- title: "Pie Charts"
page: 42
- title: "Contingency Tables: Children and First-Class Ticket Holders First?"
page: 42
- title: "Conditional Distributions"
page: 44
- title: "Other Types of Graphs"
page: 51
- title: "Is the Difference Meaningful?"
page: 52
- title: "3 Displaying and Summarizing Quantitative Data"
page: 67
sections:
- title: "Histograms"
page: 67
- title: "Stem-and-Leaf Displays (aka Stemplots)"
page: 70
- title: "Dotplots"
page: 72
- title: "Cumulative Distribution Graphs"
page: 72
- title: "Think Before You Draw, Again"
page: 74
- title: "The Shape of a Distribution"
page: 75
- title: "A Measure of Center: The Median"
page: 78
- title: "Spread: Home on the Range"
page: 79
- title: "Spread: The Interquartile Range"
page: 79
- title: "5-Number Summary"
page: 81
- title: "Boxplots"
page: 82
- title: "Summarizing Symmetric Distributions: The Mean"
page: 85
- title: "Mean or Median?"
page: 86
- title: "What About Spread? The Standard Deviation"
page: 88
- title: "What to Tell About a Quantitative Variable"
page: 90
- title: "4 Understanding and Comparing Distributions"
page: 109
sections:
- title: "The Big Picture"
page: 110
- title: "Comparing Groups with Histograms"
page: 110
- title: "Comparing Groups with Boxplots"
page: 111
- title: "Outliers"
page: 115
- title: "Timeplots: Order, Please!"
page: 116
- title: "Looking into the Future"
page: 117
- title: "*Re-expressing Data: A First Look"
page: 117
- title: "5 The Standard Deviation as a Ruler and the Normal Model"
page: 133
sections:
- title: "The Standard Deviation as a Ruler"
page: 133
- title: "Standardizing with z-Scores"
page: 134
- title: "Shifting Data: Move the Center"
page: 136
- title: "Rescaling Data: Adjust the Scale"
page: 137
- title: "Back to z-Scores"
page: 139
- title: "When Is a z-Score BIG?"
page: 140
- title: "The 68–95–99.7 Rule"
page: 141
- title: "The First Three Rules for Working with Normal Models"
page: 143
- title: "Determining Normal Percentiles"
page: 145
- title: "From Percentiles to Scores: z in Reverse"
page: 147
- title: "*Are You Normal? Find Out with a Normal Probability Plot "
page: 152
- title: "The Truth About Assessing Normality "
page: 153
- title: "Review of Part I"
page: 166
- title: "PART II Exploring Relationships Between Variables"
page: 178
chapters:
- title: "6 Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation"
page: 178
sections:
- title: "Looking at Scatterplots; Describing Associations"
page: 179
- title: "Roles for Variables"
page: 181
- title: "Correlation"
page: 183
- title: "Correlation Conditions"
page: 184
- title: "Correlation Properties"
page: 188
- title: "Accidental Correlation"
page: 188
- title: "Warning: Correlation ≠ Causation"
page: 190
- title: "7 Linear Regression"
page: 202
sections:
- title: "Residuals"
page: 203
- title: "Squared Residuals as a Measure of Fit"
page: 204
- title: "Correlation and the Line"
page: 204
- title: "How Big Can Predicted Values Get?"
page: 206
- title: "The Regression Line in Real Units"
page: 207
- title: "Residuals Revisited"
page: 212
- title: "The Typical Residual Size (aka Standard Error)"
page: 213
- title: "Different Samples, Different Regression Lines"
page: 214
- title: "R^2—The Variation Accounted For"
page: 216
- title: "How Big Should R^2 Be?"
page: 218
- title: "More About Regression Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 218
- title: "A Tale of Two Regressions"
page: 219
- title: "Reality Check: Is the Regression Reasonable?"
page: 223
- title: "8 Regression Wisdom"
page: 238
sections:
- title: 'Getting the "Bends": When the Residuals Aren t Straight'
page: 238
- title: "Extrapolation: Reaching Beyond the Data"
page: 240
- title: "Outliers, Leverage, and Influence"
page: 243
- title: "Lurking Variables and Causation"
page: 246
- title: "Working with Summary Values"
page: 248
- title: "9 Re-expressing Data: Get It Straight!"
page: 262
sections:
- title: "Straight to the Point"
page: 263
- title: "Goals of Re-expression"
page: 264
- title: "The Ladder of Powers"
page: 268
- title: "Plan B: Attack of the Logarithms"
page: 273
- title: "Why Not Just Use a Curve?"
page: 275
- title: "Review of Part II"
page: 287
- title: "PART III: Gathering Data"
page: 299
chapters:
- title: "10 Understanding Randomness"
page: 299
sections:
- title: "It's Not Easy Being Random"
page: 300
- title: "Let's Simulate!"
page: 301
- title: "11 Sample Surveys"
page: 313
sections:
- title: "Idea 1: Examine a Part of the Whole"
page: 314
- title: "Bias"
page: 314
- title: "Idea 2: Randomize"
page: 315
- title: "Idea 3: It's the Sample Size"
page: 316
- title: "Does a Census Make Sense?"
page: 316
- title: "Populations and Parameters"
page: 317
- title: "Simple Random Samples"
page: 318
- title: "Stratified Sampling"
page: 319
- title: "Stratified Sampling: A Simulation"
page: 320
- title: "Cluster and Multistage Sampling"
page: 322
- title: "Systematic Samples"
page: 323
- title: "The Valid Survey"
page: 325
- title: "Lots Can Go Wrong: How to Sample Badly"
page: 327
- title: "12 Experiments and Observational Studies"
page: 338
sections:
- title: "Observational Studies"
page: 338
- title: "Randomized, Comparative Experiments"
page: 339
- title: "The Four Principles of Experimental Design"
page: 341
- title: "Diagrams"
page: 343
- title: "Does the Difference Make a Difference?"
page: 345
- title: "Experiments and Samples"
page: 347
- title: "Control Treatments"
page: 347
- title: "Blinding"
page: 348
- title: "Placebos"
page: 349
- title: "Blocking"
page: 350
- title: "Adding More Factors"
page: 352
- title: "Confounding"
page: 353
- title: "Lurking or Confounding?"
page: 354
- title: "Statistical Significance, Revisited"
page: 355
- title: "Review of Part III"
page: 366
- title: "PART IV: Randomness and Probability"
page: 377
chapters:
- title: "13 From Randomness to Probability"
page: 377
sections:
- title: "Random Phenomena"
page: 377
- title: "The Law of Large Numbers"
page: 379
- title: 'The Nonexistent "Law of Averages"'
page: 379
- title: "Modeling Probability"
page: 381
- title: "Subjective Probability"
page: 382
- title: "The First Three Rules for Working with Probability"
page: 382
- title: "Formal Probability"
page: 383
- title: "Checking for Independence"
page: 385
- title: "14 Probability Rules!"
page: 397
sections:
- title: "The General Addition Rule"
page: 397
- title: "It Depends..."
page: 401
- title: "Independence"
page: 404
- title: "Independent ≠ Disjoint"
page: 405
- title: "Tables, Venn Diagrams, and Probability"
page: 406
- title: "The General Multiplication Rule"
page: 409
- title: "Drawing Without Replacement"
page: 409
- title: "Tree Diagrams"
page: 411
- title: "Reversing the Conditioning"
page: 413
- title: "15 Random Variables"
page: 425
sections:
- title: "Expected Value: Center"
page: 426
- title: "First Center, Now Spread ..."
page: 428
- title: "Representations of Random Variables"
page: 431
- title: "More About Means and Variances"
page: 434
- title: "Continuous Random Variables"
page: 440
- title: "16 Random Variables"
page: 452
sections:
- title: "Searching for Simone: Bernoulli Trials"
page: 452
- title: "The Geometric Model: Waiting for Success"
page: 454
- title: "The Binomial Model: Counting Successes"
page: 457
- title: "The Normal Model to the Rescue!"
page: 461
- title: "Should I Be Surprised? A First Look at Statistical Significance"
page: 465
- title: "Review of Part IV"
page: 473
- title: "PART V: From the Data at Hand to the World at Large"
page: 483
chapters:
- title: "17 Sampling Distribution Models"
page: 483
sections:
- title: "The Sampling Distribution of a Proportion"
page: 483
- title: "Can We Always Use a Normal Model?"
page: 486
- title: "A Sampling Distribution Model for a Proportion"
page: 487
- title: "The Sampling Distributions of Other Statistics"
page: 490
- title: "Simulating the Sampling Distribution of a Mean"
page: 490
- title: "The Fundamental Theorem of Statistics"
page: 491
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 492
- title: "But Which Normal?"
page: 493
- title: "The CLT when the Population Is Very Skewed"
page: 496
- title: "About Variation"
page: 498
- title: "The Real World vs. the Model World"
page: 499
- title: "Sampling Distribution Models"
page: 500
- title: "18 Confidence Intervals for Proportions"
page: 511
sections:
- title: "A Confidence Interval"
page: 512
- title: "What Does “95% Confidence” Really Mean?"
page: 514
- title: "Margin of Error: Degree of Certainty vs. Precision"
page: 516
- title: "Critical Values"
page: 517
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 518
- title: "Choosing Your Sample Size"
page: 521
- title: "The Proof Is in the Pudding"
page: 523
- title: "19 Testing Hypotheses About Proportions"
page: 534
sections:
- title: "Hypotheses"
page: 535
- title: "A Jury Trial as a Hypothesis Test?"
page: 536
- title: "P-Values: Are We Surprised?"
page: 537
- title: "Alternative Alternatives?"
page: 538
- title: "The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing"
page: 539
- title: "P-Values and Decisions: What to Tell About a Hypothesis Test?"
page: 545
- title: "Hypothesis Testing by Simulation?"
page: 549
- title: "20 More About Tests and Intervals"
page: 558
sections:
- title: "Zero In on the Null"
page: 558
- title: "How to Think About P-Values"
page: 560
- title: "Alpha Levels"
page: 564
- title: "Practical vs. Statistical Significance"
page: 565
- title: "Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests"
page: 566
- title: "*A 95% Confidence Interval for Small Samples"
page: 567
- title: "Making Errors"
page: 568
- title: "Power"
page: 571
- title: "21 Comparing Two Proportions"
page: 585
sections:
- title: "Another Ruler"
page: 585
- title: "The Standard Deviation of the Difference Between Two Proportions"
page: 586
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 587
- title: "A Confidence Interval"
page: 588
- title: "Screen Time Before Bed: A Cultural Difference?"
page: 592
- title: "Everyone into the Pool"
page: 593
- title: "The Two-Proportion z-Test"
page: 594
- title: "*A Permutation Test for Two Proportions"
page: 597
- title: "Review of Part V"
page: 606
- title: "PART VI: Learning About The World"
page: 616
chapters:
- title: "22 Inferences About Means"
page: 616
sections:
- title: "Getting Started: The Central Limit Theorem (Again)"
page: 617
- title: "The Story of Gosset’s t"
page: 618
- title: "A Confidence Interval for Means"
page: 621
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 624
- title: "Using Table T to Find t-Values"
page: 627
- title: "Be Careful when Interpreting Confidence Intervals"
page: 629
- title: "A Hypothesis Test for the Mean"
page: 629
- title: "Intervals and Tests"
page: 633
- title: "Choosing the Sample Size"
page: 634
- title: "23 Comparing Means"
page: 647
sections:
- title: "Plot the Data"
page: 648
- title: "Comparing Two Means"
page: 648
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 650
- title: "Another One Just Like the Other Ones?"
page: 654
- title: "A Test for the Difference Between Two Means"
page: 655
- title: "Back into the Pool?"
page: 660
- title: "The Pooled t-Test (In Case You’re Curious)"
page: 660
- title: "Is the Pool All Wet?"
page: 662
- title: "*A Permutation Test for Two Means"
page: 662
- title: "24 Paired Samples and Blocks"
page: 675
sections:
- title: "Paired Data"
page: 676
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 677
- title: "Confidence Intervals for Matched Pairs"
page: 683
- title: "Effect Size"
page: 685
- title: "Blocking"
page: 686
- title: "Review of Part VI"
page: 698
- title: "PART VII: Inference When Variables Are Related"
page: 712
chapters:
- title: "25 Comparing Counts"
page: 712
sections:
- title: "Goodness-of-Fit Tests"
page: 712
- title: "Homogeneity: Comparing Observed Distributions"
page: 721
- title: "Chi-Square Test of Independence"
page: 725
- title: "Chi-Square and Causation"
page: 730
- title: "26 Inferences for Regression"
page: 743
sections:
- title: "The Model and the Data"
page: 744
- title: "Assumptions and Conditions"
page: 745
- title: "Intuition About Regression Inference"
page: 750
- title: "Standard Error for the Slope"
page: 752
- title: "Regression Inference"
page: 753
- title: "Another Example: Breaking Up Is Hard to Predict"
page: 755
- title: "Different Samples, Different Slopes"
page: 759
- title: Review of Part VII
page: 776
appendixes:
- title: "APPENDIX A: Selected Formulas"
page: 792
- title: "APPENDIX B: Guide to Statistical Software"
page: 794
- title: "APPENDIX C: Answers"
page: 820