Validation for operational WAM-IPE forecast

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

the issue will show the results of the operational WAM-IPE forecast on neutral density, TEC etc key output variables.

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

The following plots show the neutral density 24-hour forecast for Apr.2024.
We can see there is a mismatch of the peak times between the realtime and 24-hour forecast time.

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

The following shows the 12-hr, 24-hr and 48-hr forecast of the total number density at 400km compared with the 'realtime'.

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

Here is the 12-hr forecast for for the 202304.

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

The 12, 24 and 48hr forecast of Kp and F107 in Apr. 2023 have also been checked, it looks like there isn't a lower value tendency in kp forecast compared the observed value. Just the stand deviation and root mean square root are very large.

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

[ZhuxiaoLi66]

The simulation runs mimic operational cycles for Apr.2023 to test kp derived Eletronic solar wind (Esw= VswBz) the new algorithm (high_quartile + current)/2
return ((0.1455+0.4675kp-0.1446kp**2+0.0276kp3)+(0.3387+0.9087kp-0.2884kp2+0.0513*kp**3))/2.0
The runs are 2 days forecast start 0UT each day, I compared the values of realtime (start time) , 24 and 48 hr forecast from these runs. we can see there isn't delay and drop down of the forecast from the mimic cycle runs.