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Calibrate national ECPS to state-level targets #118

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MaxGhenis opened this issue Nov 14, 2024 · 0 comments
Open

Calibrate national ECPS to state-level targets #118

MaxGhenis opened this issue Nov 14, 2024 · 0 comments

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@MaxGhenis
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MaxGhenis commented Nov 14, 2024

@DTrim99 and I found that the CPS understates the number of children under five in DC by 30% compared to the more-reliable ACS (notebook), which is causing inaccurate forecasts of the District Child Tax Credit. Short of calibrating the nationwide CPS to each state (like what we're doing in the UK), we can start by adding state-level targets to the nationwide version. Currently the ECPS is even farther off for this, since there are no state targets. This may also improve other targets related to SALT and SNAP, for instance, or make them more resilient to out-of-sample targets that relate to state.

Dataset Number of Children
CPS 3-year pooled 27,183
CPS 2024 23,070
Enhanced CPS 2024 186,983
ACS 2023 38,512
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