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interpretation.md

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Interpretation of results

DENSITY

  • Based on stack bar charts, most municipalities have comparable ratios of different levels of LTS?

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At the local and grid level, obviously much larger variations.

At the global level:

  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 1

At the adm and socio level, the median levels ordered after share:

  • 2
  • 3
  • 1
  • 4

1 and 4 very close for global, adm, socio.

(ofc total car highest)

At grid level:

  • 3
  • 4
  • 2
  • 1

Highly uneven distribution of both network length AND density.

Density distributions are different at various aggregation levels. Very different distributions, also across space.

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Spatial distributions

  • At socio level - share of LTS 1 is not only an urban phenomenon - but absolute quantity is.
  • Same for LTS 2
  • Absolute values for LTS 3 a bit 'random' - but low in CPH. Share of LTS 3 low in larger cities.
  • LTS 4 - not urban - neither based on share or absolute values - but a bit random - generally low values

Results for spatial autocorrelation:

HEX GRID

  • Significant clustering of network density - obviously
  • Significant clustering of LTS 1 density and LTS relative length - but not the same places!
  • Sig clustering of LTS 2 dens and rel. length - overlapping but not identical clusters.
  • Sig clustering of LTS 3 dens - but small scattered clusters. Slightly bigger clusters for LTS 3 share.
  • LTS 4 dens - sig but sparse clustering - this might change with new results!! LTS 4 share - sig clustering, especially of low LTS 4 share.
  • Car dens/car share - sig. clustering - but reversed (i.e. high dens in cities, but low share).

Socio

  • Same for LTS 1 - mostly not the same places with a high dens and high share, but both sig.
  • LTS 2 - same
  • LTS 3 - sig., overlapping but not identical clusters
  • LTS 4 - stronger clustering tendency than hex? Overlapping but not identical clusters for dens and share

Fragmentation

The number of components per level (steps):

  • 1-2
  • 1-3
  • 1
  • 1-4
  • Car
  • Total

Mean component size ranked smallest to biggest: (Median can be misleading - e.g. car have a few actual components and then tiny tracks and service)

  • LTS 1-2
  • LTS 1
  • 1-3
  • 1-4
  • Car
  • Total

Thus - LTS 1 is very fragmented - adding LTS 2 adds more network but does not result in less fragmentation! LTS 3 and 4 serve as connectors.

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Based on rug plots, the pattern in distribution of comp counts is similar across aggregation levels.

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Zipf plot confirms that LTS 4 works as connector (OBS - does this change after data update??)

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Interpretation - for LTS 1, comp count increases with density/mixed picture - for LTS 1-2 and 1-3 it decreases? (see also ind. plots) (same at muni level - no pattern at hex level).

Some spatial clustering of comp per sqkm or km for lower LTS - less fragmentation around larger cities. (at socio level)

At hex grid:

  • Longer largest components around CPH and across Sjælland
  • Some clustering in component per length (lower in urban areas)
  • But genereally very low Moran's I!

Reach

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  • As expected based on density and fragmentation results?

  • Low reach for both LTS 1 and LTS 1-2

  • A bit better for 1-3

  • LTS 4 and car similar - and highest

  • There are a few locations with more reach for bikes than cars

  • Confirms picture from fragmentation:

  • Average reach is from smallest to biggest: 1, 1-2, 1-3, car, 1-4, (OBS on car) (OBS - might change with update??)

  • But for median reach is LTS 1-2 smaller than 1 because of smaller LTS 2 components

Comparing reach

  • Because of fragmentation, the majority of LTS 1 and LTS 1-2 cells have no improvement in reach when increasing distance.

  • For LTS 1-3 it is around a third

  • Almost no LTS 1-4 cells have no improvements.

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  • Clear spatial patterns in reach - both for distance 5 reach and for where there is no reach increase when increasing distance!
  • Sig. clustering in reach differences - high differences in 5-10/5-15 in urban areas - and some others! - low in non urban for LTS 1, 1-2. Opposite for LTS 4 and car.

Correlation

Socio socio

Under 100k:

  • Very low income positively correlated with other low income - with decreasing strength - up untill 500+ K, which is negatively correlated
  • Very low income is negatively correlated with share of households with cars
  • Positive with urban pct and pop density

100-150k:

  • Similar for income 100-150 - but even stronger association with urban, pop, no car

Income 150-200 + 200-300:

  • Similar, but positive corr with share of households with 1 car - but negative with 2!
  • Positive but weak corr with pop and urban

Income 400 - 500k:

  • positive corr with almot all income groups - but weak, except 200-300,400-400, and negative for 750+!
  • Positive for share of households with 1 car, but negative for households with 2 cars --> results in negative in households w car and pos for no car
  • Weak positive corr with urban, pop

Income 500-750k:

  • Negativ corr with all income segments except 400-500 and 750+
  • Strong positive with cars and 2 cars (!) - weaker positive corr with 1 car
  • Negative corr with pop density and urban

Income 750+:

  • Negative corr with all groups except 500-750
  • Positive corr with car and 2 cars - but negative with 1 car!
  • Negative corr with pop dens and urban (but only weak corr for urban)
  • Fairly weak positive corr with total number of households with cars

1 car:

  • Negatively correlated with two lowest income groups
  • Positively corr with 3-6
  • Negatively with two higest
  • Quite weak corr between 1 car and 2 car
  • Negative with urban and pop

2 cars:

  • Negative corr with all income groups except two highest
  • Strong positive corr with households with car
  • Strong negative corr with pop and urban pct

POP & Urban pct:

  • Pop and urban have similar corrs
  • Positive with lower income groups - up to 200-300 k for pop and 300-400k for urban
  • Negative with higer incomes
  • Negative with car ownership

Socio density

  • Lower income groups live in areas with higher network density and higher density of low LTS network
  • Medium income weak positive corr with high density/high lts 1 and 2 density
  • High income live in low density areas, low dens of lts 1 and 2
  • Negative corr with 1 and 2 dens and total network dens vs. cars
  • Positve corr with 3 and 4 dens and cars (might change with updated data!)

Socio fragmentation

  • Low income associated with lower fragmentation of LTS 1 and 2 networks

  • weak both pos and negative corr with middle income and lts 1 and 2 fragmentation

  • 500-700 live in areas iwth high fragmentation of 1-3 lts but low fragmenation of lts 4

  • weaker pattern for 750+ (they live in slightly more urban areas?)

  • Car ownership positively correlated with fragmentation of low lts network - negatively correlated with fragmentation of car and lts 4 network

Socio reach

  • High network reach possitive cor with income groups up to 300-400k - this group has slightly negative corr with network reach
  • Slightly positive for 400-500
  • Negative for high income - especially 500-700 (matches results for fragmentation and dens?)

Socio network

  • Positive corr between LTS 1 and 2 density

  • Positive corr between 3 and 4

  • Negative corr between 1-2 and 3-4 (weaker for 3!)

  • Also holds for relative length!

  • Negative corr between lts 1 dens and lts comp count and comp per length - but positive with 4 and car comp count and comp per length

  • Similar with lts 2

  • On the other hand, high lts 3 and 4 positively correlated with many components of LTS 1 and 2 (lts 4 density also positively correlated with many lts 3 comps!)

  • BUT - high lts 3 and 4 density is negatively correlated with all levels of network reach! Only positively correlated with differences in 5-10 and 10-15 reach for own LTS level

  • High fragmentation results in low network reach

Hex network

  • Much weaker pattern between components/fragmentation and density

  • Similar pattern as socio with areas with high 1-2 and low 3-4 and vice versa.

  • Different pattern for relative length - high relative LTS X is usually negatively associated with high relative lenght of other levels - because of the scale.

  • Reach corrs a bit different - still a stronger pos corr between LTS 1 reach and lts 4 dens, but also a weak positive corr between lts 4 dens and lts 4 reach (same for 3)

  • Reach comparison interesting - a high jump from lts 1 and lts 2 5 to 10 reach or 10 to 15 is associoated with low 3 and 4 dens. For LTS 3, associated with low lts 4 dens. For 4, associated with low lts 1-2 dens to, weaker assoc wiht low lts 3 --> seems like good network reach for low lts do not happen in areas with high lts 4, and vice versa.

Spatial weights sensitivity tests

Socio densi

Moran's I decrease for most LTS levels as K increase, clusters increase - but smaller differences and still positive

Same for relative length - mostly the same, but smaller variations

Hex grid densi

Usually higest Moran's I for smallest k - but only smaller differences.

Socio fragmentation

Similar - does change number of areas in clusters, but does not change the general trend/global value a lot

Hex fragmentation

Somewhat sensitive to spatial weights - but very low Moran's I, not significant

Reach

Not sensitive to changing weights.

Clustering

0 fourth most bikeable

  • Low density

  • low high stress

  • low-ish car pct

  • rel high share of 1

  • highest share of 2

  • low fragmentation

  • low reach

  • high local reach increase (1-5)

  • Both medium towns, outside of larger cities, and in some rural areas?

  • Second largest cluster

1 MOST BIKEABLE

  • highest low stress dens

  • low high stress dens

  • highest car dens

  • highest total dens

  • low share of 3 and 4

  • low fragmentation

  • highest reach

  • higest reach increases for almost all metrics - except for car

  • In urban centers

  • fourth largest cluster (area wise)

2 LEAST BIKEABLE

  • Small cluster!

  • no/very low lts 1

  • high lts 4

  • almost only car

  • highly fragmented for lower stress

  • very low reach for lower stress

  • high increase for car and lts 4 at longer distances

3 THIRD LEAST BIKEABLE

  • low density

  • low low stress AND low 4

  • mostly lts 3

  • medium fragmentation for lts 2

  • very low reach

  • Only smaller islands?

4 SECOND LEAST BIKEABLE

  • Very low low stress

  • high high stress density

  • low total density

  • very high car pct

  • high fragmentation for 1 (a little) and 2 (medium)

  • low reach

  • low reach increases for low stress - but high for high stress and car

  • Rural areas?

  • Third biggest area-wise

5 fifth most bikeable

  • low low stress

  • medium/high high stress density

  • low total density

  • medium lts 4 share

  • evenly split share between 2 and 3 (around 30)

  • medium/high car share

  • low fragmentation

  • low reach

  • medium/low reach increase for lower stress - some connectivity

  • higher increases for higher stress

  • by far the biggest cluster

  • rural

6 Second most bikeable

  • high low stress

  • low high stress density

  • high density

  • high share of low stress

  • low share of car

  • low fragmentation

  • high reach (second best)

  • high reach increases for all

  • Small cluster

  • Urban/suburban

7 Third most bikeable

  • medium low stress density

  • very low high stress dens

  • very high share of lts 1 and 2

  • very low share of lts 3 and esp 4

  • medium-low network density

  • high fragmentation for lts 3,4, car and all??

  • medium-high reach - but lower for car than lts 3 and 4!

  • high reach increases

  • Very small cluster