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csep/core/non_poissonian_evaluations.py

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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
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import numpy
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import scipy.stats
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import scipy.spatial
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from csep.core.regions import QuadtreeGrid2D
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def _nbd_number_test_ndarray(fore_cnt, obs_cnt, variance, epsilon=1e-6):
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"""
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Computes delta1 and delta2 values from the Negative Binomial (NBD) number test.
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""" Computes delta1 and delta2 values from the Negative Binomial (NBD) number test.
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Args:
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fore_cnt (float): parameter of negative binomial distribution coming from expected value of the forecast
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def negative_binomial_number_test(gridded_forecast, observed_catalog, variance):
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"""
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Computes "negative binomial N-Test" on a gridded forecast.
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""" Computes "negative binomial N-Test" on a gridded forecast.
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Computes Number (N) test for Observed and Forecasts. Both data sets are expected to be in terms of event counts.
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We find the Total number of events in Observed Catalog and Forecasted Catalogs. Which are then employed to compute the
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def binary_joint_log_likelihood_ndarray(forecast, catalog):
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"""
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Computes Bernoulli log-likelihood scores, assuming that earthquakes follow a binomial distribution.
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""" Computes Bernoulli log-likelihood scores, assuming that earthquakes follow a binomial distribution.
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Args:
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forecast: Forecast of a Model (Gridded) (Numpy Array)
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def _binary_likelihood_test(forecast_data, observed_data, num_simulations=1000, random_numbers=None,
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seed=None, use_observed_counts=True, verbose=True, normalize_likelihood=False):
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"""
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Computes binary conditional-likelihood test from CSEP using an efficient simulation based approach.
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""" Computes binary conditional-likelihood test from CSEP using an efficient simulation based approach.
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Args:
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forecast_data (numpy.ndarray): nd array where [:, -1] are the magnitude bins.
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observed_data (numpy.ndarray): same format as observation.
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def binary_spatial_test(gridded_forecast, observed_catalog, num_simulations=1000, seed=None, random_numbers=None, verbose=False):
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"""
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Performs the binary spatial test on the Forecast using the Observed Catalogs.
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""" Performs the binary spatial test on the Forecast using the Observed Catalogs.
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Note: The forecast and the observations should be scaled to the same time period before calling this function. This increases
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transparency as no assumptions are being made about the length of the forecasts. This is particularly important for
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gridded forecasts that supply their forecasts as rates.
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Args:
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gridded_forecast: csep.core.forecasts.GriddedForecast
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observed_catalog: csep.core.catalogs.Catalog
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num_simulations (int): number of simulations used to compute the quantile score
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seed (int): used fore reproducibility, and testing
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random_numbers (numpy.ndarray): random numbers used to override the random number generation. injection point for testing.
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Returns:
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evaluation_result: csep.core.evaluations.EvaluationResult
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"""
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def binary_conditional_likelihood_test(gridded_forecast, observed_catalog, num_simulations=1000, seed=None, random_numbers=None, verbose=False):
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"""
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Performs the binary conditional likelihood test on Gridded Forecast using an Observed Catalog.
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""" Performs the binary conditional likelihood test on Gridded Forecast using an Observed Catalog.
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Normalizes the forecast so the forecasted rate are consistent with the observations. This modification
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eliminates the strong impact differences in the number distribution have on the forecasted rates.
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def matrix_binary_t_test(target_event_rates1, target_event_rates2, n_obs, n_f1, n_f2, catalog, alpha=0.05):
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"""
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Computes binary T test statistic by comparing two target event rate distributions.
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""" Computes binary T test statistic by comparing two target event rate distributions.
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We compare Forecast from Model 1 and with Forecast of Model 2. Information Gain per Active Bin (IGPA) is computed, which is then
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employed to compute T statistic. Confidence interval of Information Gain can be computed using T_critical. For a complete
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def binary_paired_t_test(forecast, benchmark_forecast, observed_catalog, alpha=0.05, scale=False):
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"""
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Computes the binary t-test for gridded earthquake forecasts.
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""" Computes the binary t-test for gridded earthquake forecasts.
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This score is positively oriented, meaning that positive values of the information gain indicate that the
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forecast is performing better than the benchmark forecast.

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