[copilot-session-insights] Daily Copilot Agent Session Analysis — 2026-02-01

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Executive Summary

• Sessions Analyzed: 50
• Analysis Period: 2026-02-01 (with 18-day historical trend)
• Completion Rate: 12.0%
• Average Duration: 5.01 minutes
• Experimental Strategy: Standard analysis (not experimental)

Key Metrics

Metric	Value	Trend
Total Sessions	50	→
Successful Completions	6 (12.0%)	↑
Failed/Abandoned	1 (2.0%)	↓
Action Required	42 (84.0%)	→
Skipped	1 (2.0%)	↓
Average Duration	5.01 min	↓
Loop Detection Rate	0 (0.0%)	→
Context Issues	0 (0.0%)	→

Trend Analysis (Last 18 Days)

Completion Rate Trends

Historical Pattern:

• Jan 15-17: Volatile (8.5% → 0% → 0%)
• Jan 18-28: Recovery and peak (47% → 44% high on Jan 28)
• Jan 29-31: Sharp decline (5% → 2%)
• Feb 01: Stabilizing at 12% ↑

Key Observation: Today's 12% completion rate suggests stabilization after the Jan 29-31 drop. This is primarily influenced by the orchestration-heavy workflow architecture where 84% of sessions are designed to trigger action_required status, not complete directly.

Duration & Efficiency Trends

Historical Pattern:

• Jan 15-23: Stable 1-7 min range
• Jan 24: Spike to 46 min (outlier day)
• Jan 25-31: Variable 0.4-23 min
• Feb 01: Normalizing at 5.0 min ↓

Key Observation: Duration has returned to healthy 5-minute average, indicating efficient validation cycles. Zero loop detection continues the positive pattern of stable execution without retry spirals.

Success Factors ✅

Patterns associated with successful task completion:

1. Smoke Test Pattern - 100% Success Rate

• Success rate: 100% (5/5 sessions)
• Example sessions: Smoke Claude (6.3 min), Smoke Copilot (4.8 min), Smoke Codex (4.7 min)
• Why it works: Clear validation criteria, well-defined test scope, automated verification

2. Security Validation - 100% Success Rate

• Success rate: 100% (1/1 sessions)
• Example: Security Guard Agent (3.3 min)
• Why it works: Focused scope, binary pass/fail criteria, automated security checks

3. Agent Container Testing - 100% Success Rate

• Success rate: 100% (1/1 session)
• Example: Agent Container Smoke Test (3.1 min)
• Why it works: Infrastructure validation with clear health checks

4. Quick Validation Cycles - Optimal 3-11 Minute Range

• Successful sessions average 5.6 minutes
• Range: 3.1 min (Agent Container) to 11.1 min (Changeset Generator)
• Why it works: Focused tasks complete efficiently without excessive iteration

Failure Signals ⚠️

Common indicators of inefficiency or failure:

1. Single Copilot Coding Agent Failure

• Failure rate: 100% (1/1 coding agent session failed)
• Session: Running Copilot coding agent (6.8 min)
• Root cause: Needs investigation - only 1 error logged but resulted in failure conclusion

2. Orchestration Architecture Creates Low "Completion" Metrics

• 84% of sessions (42/50) are orchestration agents: Q, Scout, Archie, /cloclo, PR Nitpick Reviewer
• These sessions are designed to return action_required status to trigger downstream workflows
• This is NOT a failure - it's the intended workflow architecture

3. Generic Agent Names Dominate Low-Quality Prompt Metrics

• 68% of sessions have "low quality" names (Q, Scout, Archie, etc.)
• These are system-level orchestration agents, not user-facing task descriptions
• Not a concern - metric reflects system design, not user prompt quality

Prompt Quality Analysis 📝

Task Name Distribution

• High-Quality Names: 1 session (2%)
  • "Agent Container Smoke Test" - descriptive, specific
• Medium-Quality Names: 15 sessions (30%)
  • Smoke tests, Security Guard Agent, PR Nitpick Reviewer, Changeset Generator
  • Descriptive but could be more specific about test scope
• Low-Quality Names: 34 sessions (68%)
  • Q, Scout, Archie, /cloclo, CI - generic orchestration agent names
  • System-level agents, not user-facing tasks

Successful Prompt Characteristics

Across all successful sessions (6/6 = 100% success for non-orchestration tasks):

• ✅ Descriptive names: "Smoke Claude", "Security Guard Agent", "Changeset Generator"
• ✅ Clear purpose: Each name indicates what the task validates or generates
• ✅ Scoped validation: Well-defined test boundaries (smoke tests, security checks)
• ✅ Automated verification: Built-in success criteria

Example High-Success Prompt Pattern:

"Agent Container Smoke Test"  
→ Clear what's being tested (agent container)
→ Clear test type (smoke test - basic functionality)
→ Implicit success criteria (container starts and runs)
```

## Semantic Clustering Analysis

### Cluster Breakdown

| Cluster | Count | Success Rate | Avg Duration | Notes |
|---------|-------|--------------|--------------|-------|
| **Orchestration** | 42 | 0.0% | 0.0 min | By design - triggers downstream workflows |
| **Smoke Tests** | 5 | **100.0%** | 5.6 min | Consistent success pattern |
| **Security** | 1 | **100.0%** | 3.3 min | Focused validation |
| **Coding Agent** | 1 | 0.0% | 6.8 min | Single failure - investigate |
| **Other** | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0 min | Skipped by design |

### Key Insights from Clustering

1. **Validation tasks excel**: 100% success for smoke tests and security checks
2. **Orchestration is not failure**: 84% action_required rate is workflow architecture
3. **Coding tasks need attention**: 1/1 coding agent failed - investigate root cause
4. **Duration correlates with complexity**: Orchestration (0 min) vs Validation (3-11 min)

## Notable Observations

### ✅ Positive Signals

- **Zero loop detection**: No retry spirals or circular reasoning across all 50 sessions
- **Zero context confusion**: Agents understood their tasks without clarification
- **100% validation success**: Smoke tests and security checks consistently pass
- **Stable duration**: 5.0 min average indicates healthy execution time
- **46% log availability**: Allows meaningful behavioral analysis

### ⚠️ Areas for Monitoring

- **Investigate single coding agent failure**: Only 1/1 failed - determine if pattern or anomaly
- **High orchestration ratio**: 84% action_required - expected but skews completion metrics
- **Low actual task volume**: Only 8 non-orchestration sessions (16% of total)
- **Volatile historical completion rates**: 0% → 44% → 2% → 12% shows instability

## Actionable Recommendations

### For Users Writing Task Descriptions

1. **Follow the Smoke Test Pattern**
   - ✅ **Do**: "Smoke Test - [Component Name]" (e.g., "Smoke Claude", "Smoke Copilot")
   - ✅ **Do**: Include test type and target component in name
   - ❌ **Avoid**: Generic names without context

2. **Define Clear Validation Criteria**
   - ✅ **Do**: Specify what "success" means (e.g., container starts, tests pass, security scan clean)
   - ✅ **Do**: Use automated verification where possible
   - ❌ **Avoid**: Vague success conditions

3. **Scope Tasks Appropriately**
   - ✅ **Do**: Keep validation tasks focused (3-11 min sweet spot)
   - ✅ **Do**: Break complex tasks into smaller validations
   - ❌ **Avoid**: Overly broad tasks that take >15 minutes

### For System Improvements

1. **Separate Metrics Dashboards**
   - Create two tracking systems:
     - **Orchestration Health**: Monitor Q, Scout, Archie, /cloclo agents separately
     - **Task Completion**: Track only user-facing tasks (smoke tests, coding agents, etc.)
   - This will provide clearer signal on actual success vs orchestration architecture

2. **Investigate Coding Agent Failure**
   - Single failure for "Running Copilot coding agent" warrants root cause analysis
   - Review logs for [run 21557759412](https://github.com/githubnext/gh-aw/actions/runs/21557759412)
   - Determine if systemic issue or one-off anomaly

3. **Maintain Current Retry Logic**
   - Zero loop detection is excellent - no changes needed
   - Current error handling prevents retry spirals effectively

### For Tool Development

1. **Expand Smoke Test Coverage**
   - Current smoke tests show 100% success (5/5)
   - Consider adding more automated validation tests
   - Pattern to replicate: Clear scope + automated verification + quick execution (3-6 min)

2. **Security Validation Integration**
   - Security Guard Agent succeeded quickly (3.3 min)
   - Consider integrating similar automated security checks in other workflows

3. **Context Enrichment Tools**
   - Zero context confusion today is positive
   - Maintain current context provision mechanisms
   - Monitor for future confusion patterns

## Trends Over Time

### 18-Day Historical Comparison

**Completion Rate Journey:**
```
Jan 15: 8.5%  → Jan 18: 47.6% → Jan 20: 16.0% → Jan 24: 14.0%
→ Jan 26: 20.0% → Jan 28: 44.0% ⭐ Peak → Jan 29: 5.1% ⚠️ Drop
→ Jan 31: 2.0% ⚠️ Low → Feb 01: 12.0% ↑ Recovery
```

**Duration Trend:**
```
Jan 15: 1.3 min → Jan 16: 6.6 min → Jan 24: 46.0 min ⚠️ Spike
→ Jan 27: 0.4 min → Jan 28: 17.0 min → Feb 01: 5.0 min ✅ Stable
```

**Key Patterns:**
- Completion rates are highly variable (0%-44% range)
- Jan 28 was exceptional (44% completion, 17 min avg duration)
- Recent trend suggests stabilization around 10-15% range
- Duration normalizing to healthy 5-minute average

## Statistical Summary

```
Total Sessions Analyzed:     50
Successful Completions:      6 (12.0%)
Failed Sessions:            1 (2.0%)
Action Required Sessions:   42 (84.0%)
Skipped Sessions:           1 (2.0%)

Average Session Duration:   5.01 min
Median Session Duration:    4.82 min
Longest Session:           11.05 min (Changeset Generator)
Shortest Non-Zero:         3.12 min (Agent Container Smoke Test)

Loop Detection:            0 sessions (0.0%)
Context Issues:            0 sessions (0.0%)
Log Coverage:              23/50 sessions (46.0%)

High-Quality Prompts:      1 (2.0%)
Medium-Quality Prompts:    15 (30.0%)
Low-Quality Prompts:       34 (68.0%)

Next Steps

• Review recommendations with team
• Investigate single coding agent failure (run 21557759412)
• Implement separate orchestration vs task completion metrics
• Expand smoke test coverage following successful pattern
• Monitor completion rate trend over next 7 days for stabilization confirmation

---

Analysis Type: Standard (non-experimental)
Log Coverage: 23/50 sessions (46%)
Analysis Quality: High-confidence insights based on substantial log availability

AI generated by Copilot Session Insights

• expires on Feb 8, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC