M4.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# set up imports\n",
    "import pandas as pd, numpy as np, seaborn as sns\n",
    "from tabulate import tabulate\n",
    "import statsmodels\n",
    "import arch\n",
    "import matplotlib\n",
    "matplotlib.use('qt5agg')\n",
    "\n",
    "# configure plot style\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "plt.rcParams['mathtext.fontset'] = 'stix'\n",
    "plt.rcParams['font.family'] = 'STIXGeneral'\n",
    "plt.rcParams[\"figure.figsize\"] = (9.5,4.15)\n",
    "plt.rcParams['figure.constrained_layout.use'] = False\n",
    "plt.rcParams['figure.dpi'] = 100\n",
    "plt.rcParams['savefig.dpi'] = 10\n",
    "plt.rcParams['lines.linewidth'] = 0.8\n",
    "save_plot_to =  r'C:\\\\Users\\joche\\OneDrive\\03 TUM - TUM-BWL\\Semester 8\\01 Bachelorarbeit\\04 Results\\Plots/'"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# load data and crop to start_date:end_date\n",
    "start_date = '2015-08-07'\n",
    "end_date = '2020-06-26'\n",
    "idx = pd.date_range(start_date, end_date)\n",
    "index_name = 'date'\n",
    "mydateparser = lambda x: pd.datetime.strptime(str(x), '%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S')\n",
    "mydateparser1 = lambda x: pd.datetime.strptime(str(x), '%Y-%m-%d')\n",
    "\n",
    "# btc\n",
    "btc = pd.read_excel('Data/BTC_closing.xlsx', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "btc.index.name = index_name\n",
    "btc.columns = ['btc']\n",
    "\n",
    "# usd_eur\n",
    "usd_eur = pd.read_excel('Data/DEXUSEU.xls', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, skiprows=10, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "usd_eur.index.name = index_name\n",
    "usd_eur.columns = ['usd_eur']\n",
    "usd_eur = usd_eur.loc[(usd_eur!=0).any(1)]\n",
    "\n",
    "# tot_btc: only weekly data - missing values interpolated\n",
    "tot_btc = pd.read_csv('Data/total-bitcoins.txt', index_col=0)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "tot_btc.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(tot_btc.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "tot_btc.index.name = index_name\n",
    "tot_btc = tot_btc.reindex(idx, fill_value=None)\n",
    "tot_btc.interpolate(method='time', inplace=True, limit_direction='both')\n",
    "tot_btc.columns = ['tot_btc']\n",
    "\n",
    "# hs_rate: only weekly data - missing values interpolated\n",
    "hs_rate = pd.read_csv('Data/hash-rate.txt', index_col=0)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "hs_rate.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(hs_rate.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "hs_rate.index.name = index_name\n",
    "hs_rate = hs_rate.reindex(idx, fill_value=None)\n",
    "hs_rate.interpolate(method='time', inplace=True, limit_direction='both')\n",
    "hs_rate.columns = ['hs_rate']\n",
    "\n",
    "# eth\n",
    "eth = pd.read_excel('Data/ETH.xlsx', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, date_parser=mydateparser, usecols='A,E')[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "eth.index.name = index_name\n",
    "eth.columns = ['eth']\n",
    "\n",
    "# ggl_trends: only weekly data - missing values interpolated\n",
    "# ggl_trends: weighted average of 15 countries\n",
    "ggl_trends = pd.read_csv('Data/googletrends.txt', index_col=0)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "ggl_trends.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(ggl_trends.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "ggl_trends.index.name = index_name\n",
    "ggl_trends = ggl_trends.reindex(idx, fill_value=None)\n",
    "ggl_trends.interpolate(method='time', inplace=True, limit_direction='both')\n",
    "ggl_trends['btc-average'] = np.round(ggl_trends.sum(axis=1)/15)\n",
    "ggl_trends = ggl_trends[['btc-average']].copy()\n",
    "ggl_trends.columns = ['ggl_trends']\n",
    "\n",
    "# wiki_views: sum of 99 countries\n",
    "wiki_views = pd.read_excel('Data/wikipedia.xlsx', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, date_parser=mydateparser1)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "wiki_views.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(wiki_views.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "wiki_views.index.name = index_name\n",
    "wiki_views['wiki-total'] = np.round(wiki_views.sum(axis=1))\n",
    "wiki_views = wiki_views[['wiki-total']].copy()\n",
    "wiki_views.columns = ['wiki_views']\n",
    "\n",
    "# wti_oil\n",
    "oil_wti = pd.read_excel('Data/DCOILWTICO.xls', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, skiprows=10, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "oil_wti.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(oil_wti.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "oil_wti.index.name = index_name\n",
    "oil_wti.columns = ['oil_wti']\n",
    "oil_wti = oil_wti.loc[(oil_wti!=0).any(1)]\n",
    "\n",
    "# gold\n",
    "gold = pd.read_excel('Data/GOLDAMGBD228NLBM10AM.xls', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, skiprows=10, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "gold.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(gold.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "gold.index.name = index_name\n",
    "gold.columns = ['gold']\n",
    "gold = gold.loc[(gold!=0).any(1)]\n",
    "\n",
    "# sp500\n",
    "sp500 = pd.read_excel('Data/SP500.xls', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, skiprows=10, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "sp500.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(sp500.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "sp500.index.name = index_name\n",
    "sp500.columns = ['sp500']\n",
    "sp500 = sp500.loc[(sp500!=0).any(1)]\n",
    "\n",
    "# sse \n",
    "sse = pd.read_excel('Data/SSEcomposite.xlsx', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, header=0, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "sse.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(sse.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "sse.index.name = index_name\n",
    "sse = sse[['Zuletzt']].copy()\n",
    "sse.columns = ['sse']\n",
    "\n",
    "# ffd_rate\n",
    "ffd_rate = pd.read_excel('Data/DFF.xls', parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, skiprows=10, date_parser=mydateparser)[start_date:end_date]\n",
    "ffd_rate.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(ffd_rate.index, normalize=True).normalize()\n",
    "ffd_rate.index.name = index_name\n",
    "ffd_rate.columns = ['ffd_rate']"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "                btc       tot_btc       hs_rate         eth  ggl_trends  \\\ndate                                                                      \n2015-08-07   279.58  1.447762e+07  3.775640e+05    2.770000         2.0   \n2015-08-10   264.47  1.448130e+07  3.687855e+05    0.708448         2.0   \n2015-08-11   270.39  1.448498e+07  3.754390e+05    1.070000         2.0   \n2015-08-12   266.38  1.448865e+07  3.820926e+05    1.220000         2.0   \n2015-08-13   264.08  1.449229e+07  3.887461e+05    1.830000         2.0   \n...             ...           ...           ...         ...         ...   \n2020-06-18  9411.84  1.840797e+07  1.090229e+08  232.100000        10.0   \n2020-06-19  9288.02  1.840862e+07  1.074749e+08  227.140000        10.0   \n2020-06-22  9648.72  1.841192e+07  1.074657e+08  242.530000        10.0   \n2020-06-23  9629.66  1.841279e+07  1.082351e+08  244.140000        10.0   \n2020-06-24  9313.61  1.841366e+07  1.082351e+08  235.770000        10.0   \n\n            wiki_views  usd_eur  oil_wti     gold    sp500      sse  ffd_rate  \ndate                                                                           \n2015-08-07       15560   1.0958    43.87  1091.35  2077.57  3744.20      0.14  \n2015-08-10       15113   1.0994    44.94  1094.80  2104.18  3928.42      0.14  \n2015-08-11       15320   1.1042    43.11  1113.25  2084.07  3927.91      0.15  \n2015-08-12       15255   1.1198    43.22  1116.80  2086.05  3886.32      0.15  \n2015-08-13       23711   1.1144    42.27  1117.35  2083.39  3954.56      0.15  \n...                ...      ...      ...      ...      ...      ...       ...  \n2020-06-18       16234   1.1216    38.79  1732.65  3115.34  2939.32      0.09  \n2020-06-19       15721   1.1189    39.72  1728.55  3097.74  2967.63      0.09  \n2020-06-22       16482   1.1260    40.60  1745.45  3117.86  2965.27      0.08  \n2020-06-23       16216   1.1322    40.40  1756.60  3131.29  2970.62      0.08  \n2020-06-24       15743   1.1272    37.91  1775.70  3050.33  2979.55      0.08  \n\n[1112 rows x 12 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>btc</th>\n      <th>tot_btc</th>\n      <th>hs_rate</th>\n      <th>eth</th>\n      <th>ggl_trends</th>\n      <th>wiki_views</th>\n      <th>usd_eur</th>\n      <th>oil_wti</th>\n      <th>gold</th>\n      <th>sp500</th>\n      <th>sse</th>\n      <th>ffd_rate</th>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-07</td>\n      <td>279.58</td>\n      <td>1.447762e+07</td>\n      <td>3.775640e+05</td>\n      <td>2.770000</td>\n      <td>2.0</td>\n      <td>15560</td>\n      <td>1.0958</td>\n      <td>43.87</td>\n      <td>1091.35</td>\n      <td>2077.57</td>\n      <td>3744.20</td>\n      <td>0.14</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-10</td>\n      <td>264.47</td>\n      <td>1.448130e+07</td>\n      <td>3.687855e+05</td>\n      <td>0.708448</td>\n      <td>2.0</td>\n      <td>15113</td>\n      <td>1.0994</td>\n      <td>44.94</td>\n      <td>1094.80</td>\n      <td>2104.18</td>\n      <td>3928.42</td>\n      <td>0.14</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-11</td>\n      <td>270.39</td>\n      <td>1.448498e+07</td>\n      <td>3.754390e+05</td>\n      <td>1.070000</td>\n      <td>2.0</td>\n      <td>15320</td>\n      <td>1.1042</td>\n      <td>43.11</td>\n      <td>1113.25</td>\n      <td>2084.07</td>\n      <td>3927.91</td>\n      <td>0.15</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-12</td>\n      <td>266.38</td>\n      <td>1.448865e+07</td>\n      <td>3.820926e+05</td>\n      <td>1.220000</td>\n      <td>2.0</td>\n      <td>15255</td>\n      <td>1.1198</td>\n      <td>43.22</td>\n      <td>1116.80</td>\n      <td>2086.05</td>\n      <td>3886.32</td>\n      <td>0.15</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-13</td>\n      <td>264.08</td>\n      <td>1.449229e+07</td>\n      <td>3.887461e+05</td>\n      <td>1.830000</td>\n      <td>2.0</td>\n      <td>23711</td>\n      <td>1.1144</td>\n      <td>42.27</td>\n      <td>1117.35</td>\n      <td>2083.39</td>\n      <td>3954.56</td>\n      <td>0.15</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2020-06-18</td>\n      <td>9411.84</td>\n      <td>1.840797e+07</td>\n      <td>1.090229e+08</td>\n      <td>232.100000</td>\n      <td>10.0</td>\n      <td>16234</td>\n      <td>1.1216</td>\n      <td>38.79</td>\n      <td>1732.65</td>\n      <td>3115.34</td>\n      <td>2939.32</td>\n      <td>0.09</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2020-06-19</td>\n      <td>9288.02</td>\n      <td>1.840862e+07</td>\n      <td>1.074749e+08</td>\n      <td>227.140000</td>\n      <td>10.0</td>\n      <td>15721</td>\n      <td>1.1189</td>\n      <td>39.72</td>\n      <td>1728.55</td>\n      <td>3097.74</td>\n      <td>2967.63</td>\n      <td>0.09</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2020-06-22</td>\n      <td>9648.72</td>\n      <td>1.841192e+07</td>\n      <td>1.074657e+08</td>\n      <td>242.530000</td>\n      <td>10.0</td>\n      <td>16482</td>\n      <td>1.1260</td>\n      <td>40.60</td>\n      <td>1745.45</td>\n      <td>3117.86</td>\n      <td>2965.27</td>\n      <td>0.08</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2020-06-23</td>\n      <td>9629.66</td>\n      <td>1.841279e+07</td>\n      <td>1.082351e+08</td>\n      <td>244.140000</td>\n      <td>10.0</td>\n      <td>16216</td>\n      <td>1.1322</td>\n      <td>40.40</td>\n      <td>1756.60</td>\n      <td>3131.29</td>\n      <td>2970.62</td>\n      <td>0.08</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2020-06-24</td>\n      <td>9313.61</td>\n      <td>1.841366e+07</td>\n      <td>1.082351e+08</td>\n      <td>235.770000</td>\n      <td>10.0</td>\n      <td>15743</td>\n      <td>1.1272</td>\n      <td>37.91</td>\n      <td>1775.70</td>\n      <td>3050.33</td>\n      <td>2979.55</td>\n      <td>0.08</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>1112 rows × 12 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 5
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# merge data to one df (inner join)\n",
    "from functools import reduce\n",
    "temp = [btc,tot_btc,hs_rate,eth,ggl_trends,wiki_views,usd_eur,oil_wti,\n",
    "              gold,sp500,sse,ffd_rate]\n",
    "df = reduce(lambda left, right: pd.merge(left, right, left_index=True, right_index=True), temp)\n",
    "df"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# split data in pre and post bubble 2018\n",
    "pre_bubble_end_date = '2017-12-01'\n",
    "post_bubble_start_date = '2018-02-01'\n",
    "\n",
    "# pre bubble df\n",
    "pre_df = df[:pre_bubble_end_date]\n",
    "\n",
    "# post bubble df\n",
    "post_df = df[post_bubble_start_date:]"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save btc_new.txt dataset with 1112 observations for use in M1-M3\n",
    "def save_btcnew():\n",
    "    btc_cropped = df['btc']\n",
    "    btc_cropped.to_csv(path_or_buf=save_plot_to+'btc_new.txt')\n",
    "\n",
    "# save_btcnew()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "### RUN TO DEFINE ALL FUNCTIONS ###\n",
    "\n",
    "# define overview-printing function of dataframe\n",
    "def dates_overview(dataframe):\n",
    "    print('start_date:\\t', dataframe.index[0])\n",
    "    print('end_date:\\t', dataframe.index[-1])\n",
    "    print('len df:\\t\\t', len(dataframe))\n",
    "    \n",
    "# define plotting function of dataframe\n",
    "import matplotlib.dates as mdates\n",
    "def plot_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    fig_i, axs = plt.subplots(4,3, figsize=(9.5,4.15))\n",
    "    for i, ax in enumerate(axs.flatten()):\n",
    "        data = dataframe[dataframe.columns[i]]\n",
    "        ax.plot(data, color='black')\n",
    "        ax.set_title(dataframe.columns[i])\n",
    "        ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('none')\n",
    "        ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('none')\n",
    "        ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter(\"%Y-%m\"))\n",
    "        ax.xaxis.set_minor_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter(\"%Y-%m\"))\n",
    "        #ax.spines['top'].set_alpha(0)\n",
    "        ax.tick_params(labelsize=8)\n",
    "    fig_i.set_size_inches(12,5)\n",
    "    fig_i.tight_layout()\n",
    "    return fig_i\n",
    "\n",
    "# define log-taking and relabeling function\n",
    "def log_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    df_log = np.log(dataframe)\n",
    "    new_cols = list()\n",
    "    for i in df_log.columns:\n",
    "        new_cols.append(i+'_log')\n",
    "    df_log.columns = new_cols\n",
    "    # fill na value of negative oil price on 2020-04-20 with 0\n",
    "    df_log.fillna(value=0, inplace=True)\n",
    "    return df_log\n",
    "\n",
    "# define correlation-table generating function of dataframe\n",
    "def corr_table_aslatex_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    corr = dataframe.corr().round(3)\n",
    "    print(tabulate(corr, headers=corr.columns, showindex=True, tablefmt=\"latex\"))\n",
    "\n",
    "# define heatmap-generating function of dataframe\n",
    "def heatmap_corr_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    corr = dataframe.corr()\n",
    "    # more html colors here: https://www.w3schools.com/colors/colors_names.asp\n",
    "    # pal = sns.light_palette('lightgrey', as_cmap=True)\n",
    "    ax = sns.heatmap(corr, xticklabels=corr.columns.values, yticklabels=corr.columns.values, annot=True, \n",
    "            annot_kws={'size':7}, vmin=-1, center=0, vmax=1, cmap=\"YlGnBu\")\n",
    "    bottom, top = ax.get_ylim()\n",
    "    ax.set_ylim(bottom + 0.5, top - 0.5)\n",
    "    fig_3 = plt.gcf()\n",
    "    fig_3.set_size_inches(9.5,4.15)\n",
    "    plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=7.5, labelbottom = False, bottom=False, top = False, labeltop=True)\n",
    "    plt.xticks(fontsize=7.5, rotation=1)\n",
    "    plt.yticks(fontsize=7.5)\n",
    "    \n",
    "# define train/test-splitting function of dataframe\n",
    "def split_traintest_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    train_size = int(len(dataframe) * 0.8)\n",
    "    df_train, df_test = dataframe[0:train_size], dataframe[train_size:]\n",
    "    # create dataframe for printout\n",
    "    data = {'Dataframe': ['dataframe', 'df_train', 'df_test'],\n",
    "            'date_start': [dataframe.index[0], df_train.index[0], df_test.index[0]],\n",
    "            'date_end': [dataframe.index[-1], df_train.index[-1], df_test.index[-1]],\n",
    "            'nobs': [len(dataframe), len(df_train), len(df_test)]}\n",
    "    df_print = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=['Dataframe','date_start','date_end','nobs'])\n",
    "    print(df_print)\n",
    "    return df_train, df_test\n",
    "\n",
    "# define adf- and pp-testing of dataframe with latex-printout on/off\n",
    "from arch.unitroot import ADF, PhillipsPerron\n",
    "def stationarity_tests(dataframe, latex):\n",
    "    for col in dataframe:\n",
    "        adf = ADF(dataframe[col])\n",
    "        pp = PhillipsPerron(dataframe[col])\n",
    "        if latex is False:\n",
    "            # write summary as plain text to std.out\n",
    "            print('Timeseries:\\t',col,'\\n',\n",
    "                  adf.summary(),'\\n\\n',pp.summary(),'\\n\\n\\n')\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            # write summary as latex to file\n",
    "            with open(save_plot_to + 'Stationarity_Tests_LaTeX.txt', 'a') as myfile:\n",
    "                myfile.write('Timeseries:\\t'+col+'\\n'\n",
    "                         +adf.summary().as_latex()+'\\n\\n'\n",
    "                         +pp.summary().as_latex()+'\\n\\n\\n')\n",
    "\n",
    "# define first difference-taking function of dataframe\n",
    "def diff_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    df_train_log_diff = df_train_log.diff()\n",
    "    # relabel columns\n",
    "    new_cols = list()\n",
    "    for i in df_train_log_diff.columns:\n",
    "        new_cols.append(i+'_diff')\n",
    "    df_train_log_diff.columns = new_cols\n",
    "    return df_train_log_diff\n",
    "\n",
    "# define stationaritiy table-generating function of a dataframe filepath\n",
    "def stationarity_table_aslatex_from_df(filepath):\n",
    "    # read in dataframe from .txt file\n",
    "    stationarity_dataframe = pd.read_csv(save_plot_to+filepath, delimiter='\\s+', header=0)\n",
    "    # print dataframe as latex output\n",
    "    print(tabulate(stationarity_dataframe, headers=stationarity_dataframe.columns, showindex=False, tablefmt=\"latex\"))\n",
    "\n",
    "# define granger causality test performing function of a dataframe\n",
    "# code taken from: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/58005681/is-it-possible-to-run-a-vector-autoregression-analysis-on-a-large-gdp-data-with\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import grangercausalitytests\n",
    "maxlag=15\n",
    "test = 'ssr-chi2test'\n",
    "def grangers_causality_matrix(X_train, variables, test = 'ssr_chi2test', verbose=False):\n",
    "    dataset = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((len(variables), len(variables))), columns=variables, index=variables)\n",
    "    for c in dataset.columns:\n",
    "        for r in dataset.index:\n",
    "            test_result = grangercausalitytests(X_train[[r,c]], maxlag=maxlag, verbose=False)\n",
    "            p_values = [round(test_result[i+1][0][test][1],4) for i in range(maxlag)]\n",
    "            if verbose: print(f'Y = {r}, X = {c}, P Values = {p_values}')\n",
    "            min_p_value = np.min(p_values)\n",
    "            dataset.loc[r,c] = min_p_value\n",
    "    dataset.columns = [var + '_x' for var in variables]\n",
    "    dataset.index = [var + '_y' for var in variables]\n",
    "    return dataset\n",
    "\n",
    "# define granger causality table generating function from dataframe\n",
    "def grangercausality_table_aslatex_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    print(tabulate(dataframe, headers=dataframe.columns, showindex=True, tablefmt=\"latex\"))\n",
    "\n",
    "# define grangercausality heatmap generating function of a dataframe\n",
    "def grangercausality_heatmap_of_df(dataframe):\n",
    "    fig, ax = plt.subplots()\n",
    "    sns.heatmap(dataframe, xticklabels=dataframe.columns.values, yticklabels=dataframe.index.values,\n",
    "                 annot=True, annot_kws={'size':7}, vmin=0, vmax=1, cmap=\"YlGnBu_r\", ax=ax)\n",
    "    bottom, top = ax.get_ylim()\n",
    "    ax.set_ylim(bottom + 0.5, top - 0.5)\n",
    "    fig = plt.gcf()\n",
    "    fig.set_size_inches(9.5,4.15)\n",
    "    plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=7, labelbottom = False, bottom=False, top = False, labeltop=True)\n",
    "    plt.xticks(fontsize=7, rotation=45)\n",
    "    plt.yticks(fontsize=7)\n",
    "    plt.set_size_inches(12,5)\n",
    "    plt.tight_layout()\n",
    "    return fig\n",
    "\n",
    "# define VAR-order selecting function of dataframe\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.var_model import VAR\n",
    "def select_VAR_order(dataframe):\n",
    "    var_model = VAR(endog=dataframe)\n",
    "    var_order_res = var_model.select_order(15).summary()\n",
    "    res_as_html = var_order_res.as_html()\n",
    "    df_var_order = pd.read_html(res_as_html, header=0, index_col=0)[0]\n",
    "    return df_var_order\n",
    "\n",
    "# define VAR-order latex-table-generating function of a var_order\n",
    "def var_order_aslatex_of_order(var_order):\n",
    "    print(tabulate(var_order, headers=var_order.columns, showindex=True, tablefmt=\"latex\"))\n",
    "\n",
    "# define VAR-model-fitting function of a dataframe and a lag order\n",
    "def fit_VAR_model_of_df(dataframe, order):\n",
    "    var_model = VAR(endog=dataframe)\n",
    "    var_fitted = var_model.fit(maxlags = order)\n",
    "    return var_fitted\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "# transform var_fitted into data frame\n",
    "# code taken from: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/51734180/converting-statsmodels-summary-object-to-pandas-dataframe\n",
    "def results_summary_to_dataframe(results):\n",
    "    '''take the result of an statsmodel results table and transforms it into a dataframe'''\n",
    "    pvals = results.pvalues\n",
    "    coeff = results.params\n",
    "    conf_lower = results.conf_int()[0]\n",
    "    conf_higher = results.conf_int()[1]\n",
    "\n",
    "    results_df = pd.DataFrame({\"pvals\":pvals,\n",
    "                               \"coeff\":coeff,\n",
    "                               \"conf_lower\":conf_lower,\n",
    "                               \"conf_higher\":conf_higher\n",
    "                                })\n",
    "    #Reordering\n",
    "    results_df = results_df[[\"coeff\",\"pvals\",\"conf_lower\",\"conf_higher\"]]\n",
    "    return results_df\n",
    "\n",
    "# define dataframe generating function from .txt file at filepath\n",
    "def var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt(filepath):\n",
    "    # read in df from textfile\n",
    "    var_btc_coefficients = pd.read_csv(save_plot_to+filepath, delimiter='\\s+', header=0)\n",
    "    var_btc_coefficients.set_index(var_btc_coefficients.columns[0], inplace=True)\n",
    "    # generate latex output\n",
    "    print(tabulate(var_btc_coefficients.round(4), headers=var_btc_coefficients.columns, showindex=True, tablefmt=\"latex\"))\n",
    "\n",
    "# define rolling forecast function\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error as mse\n",
    "def var_rolling_forecast(dataframe, lag_order):\n",
    "    # create train and test dataframes\n",
    "    train_size = int(len(dataframe) * 0.8)\n",
    "    dataframe_train, dataframe_test = dataframe[0:train_size], dataframe[train_size:]\n",
    "    index = len(dataframe_train) - 1\n",
    "    # initialize lists\n",
    "    pred_val_btc = list()\n",
    "    lo_conf_int_btc = list()\n",
    "    up_conf_int_btc = list()\n",
    "    ausreisser_ctr = 0\n",
    "    # rolling forecast\n",
    "    for i in range(len(dataframe_test)):\n",
    "        # input data, dependent on i\n",
    "        input_data = log_of_df(dataframe).diff().values[lag_order+1:index + i]\n",
    "        # fit model and predict 1 step\n",
    "        dataframe_var = VAR(endog=input_data)\n",
    "        dataframe_var_fitted = dataframe_var.fit(maxlags=lag_order)\n",
    "        dataframe_var_result = dataframe_var_fitted.forecast_interval(y=input_data, steps=1, alpha=0.05)\n",
    "        # obtain absolute (inversed) btc values for mean prediction, upper- and lower confidence interval\n",
    "        yhat_btc = np.exp(dataframe_var_result[0][0][0] + np.log(dataframe).iloc[:,0][index+i])\n",
    "        lo_conf_btc_val = np.exp(dataframe_var_result[1][0][0] + np.log(dataframe).iloc[:,0][index+i])\n",
    "        up_conf_btc_val = np.exp(dataframe_var_result[2][0][0] + np.log(dataframe).iloc[:,0][index+i])\n",
    "        if (dataframe.iloc[:,0][index+i+1] > up_conf_btc_val) or (dataframe.iloc[:,0][index+i+1] < lo_conf_btc_val):\n",
    "            ausreisser_ctr += 1\n",
    "        pred_val_btc.append(yhat_btc)\n",
    "        lo_conf_int_btc.append(lo_conf_btc_val)\n",
    "        up_conf_int_btc.append(up_conf_btc_val)\n",
    "    # return [0]: mse, [1]: ausreisser ctr, [2]: predictions, [3]: lo_confint, [4]: up_confint\n",
    "    return (np.sqrt(mse(pred_val_btc, dataframe_test.iloc[:,0].values)), ausreisser_ctr,\n",
    "            pred_val_btc, lo_conf_int_btc, up_conf_int_btc)\n",
    "\n",
    "# define series-generating and plotting function for dataframe_var_pred_result\n",
    "def plot_var_pred_result(dataframe, dataframe_train, dataframe_test, dataframe_var_pred_result):\n",
    "    # make series for plotting pred. vs. actual\n",
    "    index_pred = np.arange(len(dataframe_train) + 1, len(dataframe) + 1)\n",
    "    pred_val_btc_series = pd.Series(dataframe_var_pred_result[2], index=index_pred)\n",
    "    test_series_btc = pd.Series(dataframe_test.iloc[:,0].values, index=index_pred)\n",
    "    lo_conf_int_btc_series = pd.Series(dataframe_var_pred_result[3], index=index_pred)\n",
    "    up_conf_int_btc_series = pd.Series(dataframe_var_pred_result[4], index=index_pred)\n",
    "    # create plot: \n",
    "    fig, axs = plt.subplots(1,2)\n",
    "    axs[0].plot(dataframe_train.iloc[:,0].values, label= r'$btc_T$', color='black')\n",
    "    axs[0].plot(test_series_btc, label= r'$btc_{T+h}$', color='green')\n",
    "    axs[0].plot(pred_val_btc_series, label= r'$\\hat{btc}_{T+h}$', color= 'red')\n",
    "    axs[0].fill_between(lo_conf_int_btc_series.index, lo_conf_int_btc_series, up_conf_int_btc_series, color='k', alpha=0.1)\n",
    "    axs[0].legend(loc='upper left')\n",
    "    axs[0].title.set_text('Gesamter Zeitraum')\n",
    "    axs[1].plot(test_series_btc, label= r'$btc_{T+h}$', color='green')\n",
    "    axs[1].plot(pred_val_btc_series, label= r'$\\hat{btc}_{T+h}$', color= 'red')\n",
    "    axs[1].fill_between(lo_conf_int_btc_series.index, lo_conf_int_btc_series, up_conf_int_btc_series, color='k', alpha=0.1)\n",
    "    axs[1].legend(loc='upper left')\n",
    "    axs[1].title.set_text('Vorhersage-Zeitraum')\n",
    "    fig.set_size_inches(15,2.5)\n",
    "    return fig\n",
    "\n",
    "# define cointegration rank testing function based on select_coint_rank of a dataframe\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import select_coint_rank\n",
    "def print_select_coint_rank(dataframe, method, k_ar_diff, signif):\n",
    "    dataframe_vecm_rank = select_coint_rank(dataframe,det_order=-1,k_ar_diff=k_ar_diff,method=method,signif=signif)\n",
    "    print(dataframe_vecm_rank.summary())\n",
    "    # summary output must be copied and saved as .txt\n",
    "\n",
    "# define trace cointegration testing function for dataframe\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import coint_johansen\n",
    "def print_cointegration_test_of(dataframe, k_ar_diff, signif):\n",
    "    result = coint_johansen(dataframe, -1, k_ar_diff)\n",
    "    d = {'0.90':0, '0.95':1, '0.99':2}\n",
    "    trace_stat = result.lr1\n",
    "    crit_val_trace_stat = result.cvt[:, d[str(1-signif)]]\n",
    "    \n",
    "    def adjust(val, length = 6): \n",
    "        return str(val).ljust(length)\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print(' Variable  \\t\\ttest-statistic\\tCV(95%)\\t\\tSignif\\n')\n",
    "    for col, trace, cvt in zip(dataframe.columns, trace_stat, crit_val_trace_stat):\n",
    "        if col is 'dax' or col is 'sp500':\n",
    "            tab = 2\n",
    "        else:\n",
    "            tab = 1\n",
    "        print(adjust(col), '\\t'*tab, adjust(round(trace,2), 9),'\\t', adjust(cvt, 8), '\\t' , trace > cvt)\n",
    "    # -> Copy summary output and save as .txt\n",
    "    \n",
    "# define VECM specifying function for dataframe\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import VECM\n",
    "def get_vecm_model(dataframe,k_ar_diff,coint_rank,det):\n",
    "    dataframe_vecm = VECM(endog=dataframe,k_ar_diff=k_ar_diff,coint_rank=coint_rank,deterministic=det)\n",
    "    dataframe_vecm_fitted = dataframe_vecm.fit()\n",
    "    return dataframe_vecm_fitted\n",
    "\n",
    "# define rolling forecast function\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error as mse\n",
    "def vecm_rolling_forecast(dataframe, lag_order, coint_rank, det):\n",
    "    # create train and test dataframes\n",
    "    train_size = int(len(dataframe) * 0.8)\n",
    "    dataframe_train, dataframe_test = dataframe[0:train_size], dataframe[train_size:]\n",
    "    index = len(dataframe_train) - 1\n",
    "    # initialize lists\n",
    "    pred_val_btc = list()\n",
    "    lo_conf_int_btc = list()\n",
    "    up_conf_int_btc = list()\n",
    "    ausreisser_ctr = 0\n",
    "    # rolling forecast\n",
    "    for i in range(len(dataframe_test)):\n",
    "        # input data, dependent on i\n",
    "        input_data = log_of_df(dataframe).values[lag_order:index + i]\n",
    "        # fit model and predict 1 step\n",
    "        dataframe_vecm_fitted = get_vecm_model(dataframe=input_data,k_ar_diff=lag_order,coint_rank=coint_rank,det=det)\n",
    "        dataframe_vecm_result = dataframe_vecm_fitted.predict(steps=1,alpha=0.05)\n",
    "        # obtain absolute (inversed) btc values for mean prediction, upper- and lower confidence interval\n",
    "        yhat_btc = np.exp(dataframe_vecm_result[0][0][0])\n",
    "        lo_conf_btc_val = np.exp(dataframe_vecm_result[1][0][0])\n",
    "        up_conf_btc_val = np.exp(dataframe_vecm_result[2][0][0])\n",
    "        if (dataframe.iloc[:,0][index+i+1] > up_conf_btc_val) or (dataframe.iloc[:,0][index+i+1] < lo_conf_btc_val):\n",
    "            ausreisser_ctr += 1\n",
    "        pred_val_btc.append(yhat_btc)\n",
    "        lo_conf_int_btc.append(lo_conf_btc_val)\n",
    "        up_conf_int_btc.append(up_conf_btc_val)\n",
    "    # return [0]: mse, [1]: ausreisser ctr, [2]: predictions, [3]: lo_confint, [4]: up_confint\n",
    "    return (np.sqrt(mse(pred_val_btc, dataframe_test.iloc[:,0].values)), ausreisser_ctr,\n",
    "            pred_val_btc, lo_conf_int_btc, up_conf_int_btc)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "## not used ##\n",
    "# imports the coint_johansen function to test for cointegration as a prerequisite for VEC \n",
    "# modeling\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import coint_johansen\n",
    "\n",
    "# uses https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/mapsa/seminario-doc-2014/blob/master/cointegration-\n",
    "# example.ipynb to create functions to return the number of cointegrating vectors based \n",
    "# on the Trace version if the Johansen Cointegration Test\n",
    "def johansen_trace(y, p):\n",
    "        N, l = y.shape\n",
    "        joh_trace = coint_johansen(y, 0, p)\n",
    "        r = 0\n",
    "        for i in range(l):\n",
    "            if joh_trace.lr1[i] > joh_trace.cvt[i, 1]:     # 0: 90%  1:95% 2: 99%\n",
    "                r = i + 1\n",
    "        joh_trace.r = r\n",
    "\n",
    "        return joh_trace\n",
    "\n",
    "# loops through 1 to 10 lags of trading days\n",
    "#for i in range(1, 11): \n",
    "    # tests for cointegration at i lags\n",
    "    #joh_trace = johansen_trace(df_select_train_log, i)\n",
    "    # prints the results\n",
    "    #print('Using the Trace Test, there are', joh_trace.r, '''cointegrating vectors at \n",
    "    #%s lags between the df_select_train_log''' % i)\n",
    "    # prints a space for readability\n",
    "    #print()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "start_date:\t 2015-08-07 00:00:00\nend_date:\t 2020-06-24 00:00:00\nlen df:\t\t 1112\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# overview of df\n",
    "dates_overview(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\plotting\\_matplotlib\\converter.py:103: FutureWarning: Using an implicitly registered datetime converter for a matplotlib plotting method. The converter was registered by pandas on import. Future versions of pandas will require you to explicitly register matplotlib converters.\n\nTo register the converters:\n\t>>> from pandas.plotting import register_matplotlib_converters\n\t>>> register_matplotlib_converters()\n  warnings.warn(msg, FutureWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# plot df\n",
    "fig_1 = plot_df(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\ipykernel_launcher.py:29: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# take log of df\n",
    "df_log = log_of_df(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# plot log time series\n",
    "fig_2 = plot_df(df_log)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_2\n",
    "fig_2.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_2.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrrrrrrrr}\n\\hline\n            &    btc &   tot\\_btc &   hs\\_rate &   eth &   ggl\\_trends &   wiki\\_views &   usd\\_eur &   oil\\_wti &   gold &   sp500 &    sse &   ffd\\_rate \\\\\n\\hline\n btc        &  1     &     0.756 &     0.65  & 0.736 &        0.711 &        0.38  &     0.463 &     0.425 &  0.575 &   0.823 & -0.13  &      0.564 \\\\\n tot\\_btc    &  0.756 &     1     &     0.881 & 0.361 &        0.33  &       -0.034 &     0.145 &     0.287 &  0.765 &   0.929 & -0.464 &      0.642 \\\\\n hs\\_rate    &  0.65  &     0.881 &     1     & 0.144 &        0.157 &       -0.223 &    -0.068 &     0.046 &  0.831 &   0.832 & -0.463 &      0.392 \\\\\n eth        &  0.736 &     0.361 &     0.144 & 1     &        0.653 &        0.484 &     0.772 &     0.515 &  0.175 &   0.474 &  0.17  &      0.409 \\\\\n ggl\\_trends &  0.711 &     0.33  &     0.157 & 0.653 &        1     &        0.799 &     0.469 &     0.236 &  0.233 &   0.377 &  0.186 &      0.277 \\\\\n wiki\\_views &  0.38  &    -0.034 &    -0.223 & 0.484 &        0.799 &        1     &     0.403 &     0.146 & -0.094 &   0.036 &  0.35  &      0.025 \\\\\n usd\\_eur    &  0.463 &     0.145 &    -0.068 & 0.772 &        0.469 &        0.403 &     1     &     0.501 & -0.013 &   0.249 &  0.099 &      0.377 \\\\\n oil\\_wti    &  0.425 &     0.287 &     0.046 & 0.515 &        0.236 &        0.146 &     0.501 &     1     & -0.159 &   0.477 & -0.038 &      0.718 \\\\\n gold       &  0.575 &     0.765 &     0.831 & 0.175 &        0.233 &       -0.094 &    -0.013 &    -0.159 &  1     &   0.663 & -0.294 &      0.108 \\\\\n sp500      &  0.823 &     0.929 &     0.832 & 0.474 &        0.377 &        0.036 &     0.249 &     0.477 &  0.663 &   1     & -0.29  &      0.697 \\\\\n sse        & -0.13  &    -0.464 &    -0.463 & 0.17  &        0.186 &        0.35  &     0.099 &    -0.038 & -0.294 &  -0.29  &  1     &     -0.364 \\\\\n ffd\\_rate   &  0.564 &     0.642 &     0.392 & 0.409 &        0.277 &        0.025 &     0.377 &     0.718 &  0.108 &   0.697 & -0.364 &      1     \\\\\n\\hline\n\\end{tabular}\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# correlation matrix of df\n",
    "corr_table_aslatex_of_df(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# correlation heatmap of df\n",
    "heatmap_corr_of_df(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "   Dataframe date_start   date_end  nobs\n0  dataframe 2015-08-07 2020-06-24  1112\n1   df_train 2015-08-07 2019-07-01   889\n2    df_test 2019-07-02 2020-06-24   223\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# split df in df_train and df_test\n",
    "df_train, df_test = split_traintest_df(df)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# take log of df_train\n",
    "df_train_log = log_of_df(df_train)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# plot df_train_log\n",
    "fig_4 = plot_df(df_train_log)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Timeseries:\t btc_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -0.883\nP-value                         0.794\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -0.931\nP-value                         0.778\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t tot_btc_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.824\nP-value                         0.055\nLags                               19\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -9.262\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t hs_rate_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.563\nP-value                         0.502\nLags                                9\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.449\nP-value                         0.558\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t eth_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.700\nP-value                         0.431\nLags                               13\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.173\nP-value                         0.685\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t ggl_trends_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.675\nP-value                         0.444\nLags                                6\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.668\nP-value                         0.448\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t wiki_views_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.206\nP-value                         0.204\nLags                                4\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -3.269\nP-value                         0.016\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t usd_eur_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.017\nP-value                         0.279\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.840\nP-value                         0.361\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t oil_wti_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.825\nP-value                         0.368\nLags                               11\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.721\nP-value                         0.420\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t gold_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.201\nP-value                         0.206\nLags                                3\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.442\nP-value                         0.130\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t",
      " sp500_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -0.741\nP-value                         0.836\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -0.571\nP-value                         0.877\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t sse_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.151\nP-value                         0.224\nLags                               13\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -3.102\nP-value                         0.026\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t ffd_rate_log \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.776\nP-value                         0.392\nLags                               18\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -1.606\nP-value                         0.481\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# adf- and pp-testing of df_train_log - no latex printout\n",
    "stationarity_tests(df_train_log, latex=False)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "            btc_log_diff  tot_btc_log_diff  hs_rate_log_diff  eth_log_diff  \\\ndate                                                                         \n2015-08-07           NaN               NaN               NaN           NaN   \n2015-08-10     -0.055561          0.000254         -0.023525     -1.363526   \n2015-08-11      0.022138          0.000254          0.017881      0.412337   \n2015-08-12     -0.014942          0.000254          0.017567      0.131192   \n2015-08-13     -0.008672          0.000251          0.017264      0.405465   \n...                  ...               ...               ...           ...   \n2019-06-25      0.068426          0.000099          0.024530      0.024534   \n2019-06-26      0.098867          0.000098          0.023942      0.056881   \n2019-06-27     -0.151819          0.000098          0.010964     -0.134843   \n2019-06-28      0.103910          0.000098          0.010845      0.056034   \n2019-07-01     -0.159026          0.000393          0.012636     -0.058178   \n\n            ggl_trends_log_diff  wiki_views_log_diff  usd_eur_log_diff  \\\ndate                                                                     \n2015-08-07                  NaN                  NaN               NaN   \n2015-08-10             0.000000            -0.029148          0.003280   \n2015-08-11             0.000000             0.013604          0.004357   \n2015-08-12             0.000000            -0.004252          0.014029   \n2015-08-13             0.000000             0.441032         -0.004834   \n...                         ...                  ...               ...   \n2019-06-25            -0.083382            -0.007638         -0.000615   \n2019-06-26            -0.044452             0.413610          0.000351   \n2019-06-27            -0.046520            -0.173980         -0.001582   \n2019-06-28            -0.100083            -0.147271          0.000176   \n2019-07-01            -0.111226            -0.189906         -0.005908   \n\n            oil_wti_log_diff  gold_log_diff  sp500_log_diff  sse_log_diff  \\\ndate                                                                        \n2015-08-07               NaN            NaN             NaN           NaN   \n2015-08-10          0.024098       0.003156        0.012727      0.048029   \n2015-08-11         -0.041573       0.016712       -0.009603     -0.000130   \n2015-08-12          0.002548       0.003184        0.000950     -0.010645   \n2015-08-13         -0.022226       0.000492       -0.001276      0.017407   \n...                      ...            ...             ...           ...   \n2019-06-25         -0.001734       0.017002       -0.009542     -0.008708   \n2019-06-26          0.026371      -0.016078       -0.001235     -0.001943   \n2019-06-27          0.000169      -0.003204        0.003816      0.006868   \n2019-06-28         -0.016698       0.007779        0.005741     -0.005994   \n2019-07-01          0.012126      -0.016517        0.007643      0.021921   \n\n            ffd_rate_log_diff  \ndate                           \n2015-08-07                NaN  \n2015-08-10           0.000000  \n2015-08-11           0.068993  \n2015-08-12           0.000000  \n2015-08-13           0.000000  \n...                       ...  \n2019-06-25           0.000000  \n2019-06-26           0.000000  \n2019-06-27           0.000000  \n2019-06-28           0.008368  \n2019-07-01          -0.004175  \n\n[889 rows x 12 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>btc_log_diff</th>\n      <th>tot_btc_log_diff</th>\n      <th>hs_rate_log_diff</th>\n      <th>eth_log_diff</th>\n      <th>ggl_trends_log_diff</th>\n      <th>wiki_views_log_diff</th>\n      <th>usd_eur_log_diff</th>\n      <th>oil_wti_log_diff</th>\n      <th>gold_log_diff</th>\n      <th>sp500_log_diff</th>\n      <th>sse_log_diff</th>\n      <th>ffd_rate_log_diff</th>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-07</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-10</td>\n      <td>-0.055561</td>\n      <td>0.000254</td>\n      <td>-0.023525</td>\n      <td>-1.363526</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n      <td>-0.029148</td>\n      <td>0.003280</td>\n      <td>0.024098</td>\n      <td>0.003156</td>\n      <td>0.012727</td>\n      <td>0.048029</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-11</td>\n      <td>0.022138</td>\n      <td>0.000254</td>\n      <td>0.017881</td>\n      <td>0.412337</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n      <td>0.013604</td>\n      <td>0.004357</td>\n      <td>-0.041573</td>\n      <td>0.016712</td>\n      <td>-0.009603</td>\n      <td>-0.000130</td>\n      <td>0.068993</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-12</td>\n      <td>-0.014942</td>\n      <td>0.000254</td>\n      <td>0.017567</td>\n      <td>0.131192</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n      <td>-0.004252</td>\n      <td>0.014029</td>\n      <td>0.002548</td>\n      <td>0.003184</td>\n      <td>0.000950</td>\n      <td>-0.010645</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-13</td>\n      <td>-0.008672</td>\n      <td>0.000251</td>\n      <td>0.017264</td>\n      <td>0.405465</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n      <td>0.441032</td>\n      <td>-0.004834</td>\n      <td>-0.022226</td>\n      <td>0.000492</td>\n      <td>-0.001276</td>\n      <td>0.017407</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-25</td>\n      <td>0.068426</td>\n      <td>0.000099</td>\n      <td>0.024530</td>\n      <td>0.024534</td>\n      <td>-0.083382</td>\n      <td>-0.007638</td>\n      <td>-0.000615</td>\n      <td>-0.001734</td>\n      <td>0.017002</td>\n      <td>-0.009542</td>\n      <td>-0.008708</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-26</td>\n      <td>0.098867</td>\n      <td>0.000098</td>\n      <td>0.023942</td>\n      <td>0.056881</td>\n      <td>-0.044452</td>\n      <td>0.413610</td>\n      <td>0.000351</td>\n      <td>0.026371</td>\n      <td>-0.016078</td>\n      <td>-0.001235</td>\n      <td>-0.001943</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-27</td>\n      <td>-0.151819</td>\n      <td>0.000098</td>\n      <td>0.010964</td>\n      <td>-0.134843</td>\n      <td>-0.046520</td>\n      <td>-0.173980</td>\n      <td>-0.001582</td>\n      <td>0.000169</td>\n      <td>-0.003204</td>\n      <td>0.003816</td>\n      <td>0.006868</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-28</td>\n      <td>0.103910</td>\n      <td>0.000098</td>\n      <td>0.010845</td>\n      <td>0.056034</td>\n      <td>-0.100083</td>\n      <td>-0.147271</td>\n      <td>0.000176</td>\n      <td>-0.016698</td>\n      <td>0.007779</td>\n      <td>0.005741</td>\n      <td>-0.005994</td>\n      <td>0.008368</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-07-01</td>\n      <td>-0.159026</td>\n      <td>0.000393</td>\n      <td>0.012636</td>\n      <td>-0.058178</td>\n      <td>-0.111226</td>\n      <td>-0.189906</td>\n      <td>-0.005908</td>\n      <td>0.012126</td>\n      <td>-0.016517</td>\n      <td>0.007643</td>\n      <td>0.021921</td>\n      <td>-0.004175</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>889 rows × 12 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 17
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# take first difference of df_train_log\n",
    "df_train_log_diff = diff_of_df(df_train_log)\n",
    "df_train_log_diff"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# plot df_train_log_diff\n",
    "fig_5 = plot_df(df_train_log_diff[1:])"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_5\n",
    "fig_5.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_5.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Timeseries:\t btc_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -29.318\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -29.679\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t tot_btc_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -2.820\nP-value                         0.055\nLags                               18\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -36.439\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t hs_rate_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -9.032\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                8\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -21.153\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t eth_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -6.103\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               12\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -33.620\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t ggl_trends_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -12.714\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                5\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -27.314\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t wiki_views_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -21.020\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                3\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -47.659\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t usd_eur_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -30.127\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -30.523\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t oil_wti_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -9.736\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               10\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -30.708\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t gold_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -16.021\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                2\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -29.242\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\n",
      "Timeseries:\t sp500_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -29.929\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                                0\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -30.209\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t sse_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -9.765\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               12\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -29.894\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\nTimeseries:\t ffd_rate_log_diff \n    Augmented Dickey-Fuller Results   \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                 -7.604\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               17\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n      Phillips-Perron Test (Z-tau)    \n=====================================\nTest Statistic                -51.254\nP-value                         0.000\nLags                               21\n-------------------------------------\n\nTrend: Constant\nCritical Values: -3.44 (1%), -2.86 (5%), -2.57 (10%)\nNull Hypothesis: The process contains a unit root.\nAlternative Hypothesis: The process is weakly stationary. \n\n\n\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# adf- and pp-testing of df_train_log_diff - no latex printout\n",
    "stationarity_tests(df_train_log_diff[1:], latex=False)\n",
    "    "
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# plot stationarity table of df\n",
    "stationarity_table_aslatex_from_df('M4_stationarity tests.txt')"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "                       btc_log_diff_x  tot_btc_log_diff_x  hs_rate_log_diff_x  \\\nbtc_log_diff_y                 1.0000              0.5272              0.0225   \ntot_btc_log_diff_y             0.6692              1.0000              0.1870   \nhs_rate_log_diff_y             0.0850              0.0000              1.0000   \neth_log_diff_y                 0.0038              0.1471              0.1155   \nggl_trends_log_diff_y          0.0750              0.0225              0.1172   \nwiki_views_log_diff_y          0.0001              0.1781              0.1756   \nusd_eur_log_diff_y             0.2558              0.0974              0.5620   \noil_wti_log_diff_y             0.0331              0.1157              0.1933   \ngold_log_diff_y                0.5008              0.0778              0.1955   \nsp500_log_diff_y               0.1098              0.4486              0.0199   \nsse_log_diff_y                 0.0665              0.0001              0.5457   \nffd_rate_log_diff_y            0.7937              0.0014              0.0117   \n\n                       eth_log_diff_x  ggl_trends_log_diff_x  \\\nbtc_log_diff_y                 0.0784                 0.0055   \ntot_btc_log_diff_y             0.0567                 0.1614   \nhs_rate_log_diff_y             0.0223                 0.0467   \neth_log_diff_y                 1.0000                 0.4148   \nggl_trends_log_diff_y          0.2559                 1.0000   \nwiki_views_log_diff_y          0.4502                 0.0000   \nusd_eur_log_diff_y             0.0306                 0.1226   \noil_wti_log_diff_y             0.0012                 0.0271   \ngold_log_diff_y                0.0814                 0.3031   \nsp500_log_diff_y               0.0004                 0.0204   \nsse_log_diff_y                 0.0000                 0.6918   \nffd_rate_log_diff_y            0.1119                 0.2267   \n\n                       wiki_views_log_diff_x  usd_eur_log_diff_x  \\\nbtc_log_diff_y                        0.2011              0.2354   \ntot_btc_log_diff_y                    0.0000              0.0362   \nhs_rate_log_diff_y                    0.0797              0.0150   \neth_log_diff_y                        0.1589              0.0975   \nggl_trends_log_diff_y                 0.0050              0.0417   \nwiki_views_log_diff_y                 1.0000              0.4715   \nusd_eur_log_diff_y                    0.5229              1.0000   \noil_wti_log_diff_y                    0.6849              0.2089   \ngold_log_diff_y                       0.7110              0.0000   \nsp500_log_diff_y                      0.0668              0.1182   \nsse_log_diff_y                        0.0090              0.1845   \nffd_rate_log_diff_y                   0.0000              0.0440   \n\n                       oil_wti_log_diff_x  gold_log_diff_x  sp500_log_diff_x  \\\nbtc_log_diff_y                     0.4655           0.3461            0.1532   \ntot_btc_log_diff_y                 0.0008           0.4126            0.0181   \nhs_rate_log_diff_y                 0.0029           0.0229            0.1382   \neth_log_diff_y                     0.5212           0.2341            0.1532   \nggl_trends_log_diff_y              0.1165           0.1172            0.1349   \nwiki_views_log_diff_y              0.0284           0.1477            0.1051   \nusd_eur_log_diff_y                 0.0175           0.1499            0.2106   \noil_wti_log_diff_y                 1.0000           0.3901            0.0051   \ngold_log_diff_y                    0.0077           1.0000            0.0259   \nsp500_log_diff_y                   0.4076           0.1643            1.0000   \nsse_log_diff_y                     0.0014           0.1045            0.0000   \nffd_rate_log_diff_y                0.0235           0.4840            0.3657   \n\n                       sse_log_diff_x  ffd_rate_log_diff_x  \nbtc_log_diff_y                 0.6332               0.4867  \ntot_btc_log_diff_y             0.0009               0.0000  \nhs_rate_log_diff_y             0.4550               0.1592  \neth_log_diff_y                 0.0184               0.0384  \nggl_trends_log_diff_y          0.4080               0.0079  \nwiki_views_log_diff_y          0.0831               0.0207  \nusd_eur_log_diff_y             0.0364               0.0024  \noil_wti_log_diff_y             0.0368               0.0561  \ngold_log_diff_y                0.0947               0.1240  \nsp500_log_diff_y               0.0000               0.0002  \nsse_log_diff_y                 1.0000               0.0008  \nffd_rate_log_diff_y            0.1967               1.0000  ",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>btc_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>tot_btc_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>hs_rate_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>eth_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>ggl_trends_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>wiki_views_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>usd_eur_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>oil_wti_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>gold_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>sp500_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>sse_log_diff_x</th>\n      <th>ffd_rate_log_diff_x</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>btc_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.5272</td>\n      <td>0.0225</td>\n      <td>0.0784</td>\n      <td>0.0055</td>\n      <td>0.2011</td>\n      <td>0.2354</td>\n      <td>0.4655</td>\n      <td>0.3461</td>\n      <td>0.1532</td>\n      <td>0.6332</td>\n      <td>0.4867</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>tot_btc_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.6692</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.1870</td>\n      <td>0.0567</td>\n      <td>0.1614</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0362</td>\n      <td>0.0008</td>\n      <td>0.4126</td>\n      <td>0.0181</td>\n      <td>0.0009</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>hs_rate_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0850</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0223</td>\n      <td>0.0467</td>\n      <td>0.0797</td>\n      <td>0.0150</td>\n      <td>0.0029</td>\n      <td>0.0229</td>\n      <td>0.1382</td>\n      <td>0.4550</td>\n      <td>0.1592</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>eth_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0038</td>\n      <td>0.1471</td>\n      <td>0.1155</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.4148</td>\n      <td>0.1589</td>\n      <td>0.0975</td>\n      <td>0.5212</td>\n      <td>0.2341</td>\n      <td>0.1532</td>\n      <td>0.0184</td>\n      <td>0.0384</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>ggl_trends_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0750</td>\n      <td>0.0225</td>\n      <td>0.1172</td>\n      <td>0.2559</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0050</td>\n      <td>0.0417</td>\n      <td>0.1165</td>\n      <td>0.1172</td>\n      <td>0.1349</td>\n      <td>0.4080</td>\n      <td>0.0079</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>wiki_views_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0001</td>\n      <td>0.1781</td>\n      <td>0.1756</td>\n      <td>0.4502</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.4715</td>\n      <td>0.0284</td>\n      <td>0.1477</td>\n      <td>0.1051</td>\n      <td>0.0831</td>\n      <td>0.0207</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>usd_eur_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.2558</td>\n      <td>0.0974</td>\n      <td>0.5620</td>\n      <td>0.0306</td>\n      <td>0.1226</td>\n      <td>0.5229</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0175</td>\n      <td>0.1499</td>\n      <td>0.2106</td>\n      <td>0.0364</td>\n      <td>0.0024</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>oil_wti_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0331</td>\n      <td>0.1157</td>\n      <td>0.1933</td>\n      <td>0.0012</td>\n      <td>0.0271</td>\n      <td>0.6849</td>\n      <td>0.2089</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.3901</td>\n      <td>0.0051</td>\n      <td>0.0368</td>\n      <td>0.0561</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>gold_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.5008</td>\n      <td>0.0778</td>\n      <td>0.1955</td>\n      <td>0.0814</td>\n      <td>0.3031</td>\n      <td>0.7110</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0077</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0259</td>\n      <td>0.0947</td>\n      <td>0.1240</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>sp500_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.1098</td>\n      <td>0.4486</td>\n      <td>0.0199</td>\n      <td>0.0004</td>\n      <td>0.0204</td>\n      <td>0.0668</td>\n      <td>0.1182</td>\n      <td>0.4076</td>\n      <td>0.1643</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0002</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>sse_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.0665</td>\n      <td>0.0001</td>\n      <td>0.5457</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>0.6918</td>\n      <td>0.0090</td>\n      <td>0.1845</td>\n      <td>0.0014</td>\n      <td>0.1045</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0008</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>ffd_rate_log_diff_y</td>\n      <td>0.7937</td>\n      <td>0.0014</td>\n      <td>0.0117</td>\n      <td>0.1119</td>\n      <td>0.2267</td>\n      <td>0.0000</td>\n      <td>0.0440</td>\n      <td>0.0235</td>\n      <td>0.4840</td>\n      <td>0.3657</td>\n      <td>0.1967</td>\n      <td>1.0000</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 19
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# perform granger causality test each on each based on df_train_log_diff\n",
    "granger_causality_matrix = grangers_causality_matrix(df_train_log_diff[1:], variables = df_train_log_diff.columns)\n",
    "granger_causality_matrix.round(4)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# generate granger causality table as latex output\n",
    "grangercausality_table_aslatex_of_df(granger_causality_matrix)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# generate granger causality heatmap of df_train_log_diff\n",
    "fig_6 = grangercausality_heatmap_of_df(granger_causality_matrix)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_6\n",
    "fig_6.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_6.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "## VAR: df_select_train_log_diff (3 Variables) ##"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "            btc_log_diff  hs_rate_log_diff  ggl_trends_log_diff\ndate                                                           \n2015-08-07           NaN               NaN                  NaN\n2015-08-10     -0.055561         -0.023525             0.000000\n2015-08-11      0.022138          0.017881             0.000000\n2015-08-12     -0.014942          0.017567             0.000000\n2015-08-13     -0.008672          0.017264             0.000000\n...                  ...               ...                  ...\n2019-06-25      0.068426          0.024530            -0.083382\n2019-06-26      0.098867          0.023942            -0.044452\n2019-06-27     -0.151819          0.010964            -0.046520\n2019-06-28      0.103910          0.010845            -0.100083\n2019-07-01     -0.159026          0.012636            -0.111226\n\n[889 rows x 3 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>btc_log_diff</th>\n      <th>hs_rate_log_diff</th>\n      <th>ggl_trends_log_diff</th>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n      <th></th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-07</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n      <td>NaN</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-10</td>\n      <td>-0.055561</td>\n      <td>-0.023525</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-11</td>\n      <td>0.022138</td>\n      <td>0.017881</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-12</td>\n      <td>-0.014942</td>\n      <td>0.017567</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2015-08-13</td>\n      <td>-0.008672</td>\n      <td>0.017264</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-25</td>\n      <td>0.068426</td>\n      <td>0.024530</td>\n      <td>-0.083382</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-26</td>\n      <td>0.098867</td>\n      <td>0.023942</td>\n      <td>-0.044452</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-27</td>\n      <td>-0.151819</td>\n      <td>0.010964</td>\n      <td>-0.046520</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-06-28</td>\n      <td>0.103910</td>\n      <td>0.010845</td>\n      <td>-0.100083</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2019-07-01</td>\n      <td>-0.159026</td>\n      <td>0.012636</td>\n      <td>-0.111226</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>889 rows × 3 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 20
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# based on granger-causality: new df with btc, hs_rate and ggl_trends\n",
    "df_select_train_log_diff = df_train_log_diff[['btc_log_diff','hs_rate_log_diff','ggl_trends_log_diff']]\n",
    "df_select_train_log_diff"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "        AIC      BIC         FPE     HQIC\n0    -18.94   -18.92   5.952e-09   -18.93\n1    -19.03  -18.96*   5.437e-09  -19.00*\n2    -19.04   -18.92   5.388e-09   -19.00\n3    -19.04   -18.87   5.401e-09   -18.97\n4    -19.05   -18.84   5.318e-09   -18.97\n5    -19.05   -18.79   5.340e-09   -18.95\n6   -19.06*   -18.75  5.271e-09*   -18.94\n7    -19.05   -18.69   5.350e-09   -18.91\n8    -19.03   -18.62   5.432e-09   -18.87\n9    -19.04   -18.58   5.364e-09   -18.87\n10   -19.03   -18.52   5.455e-09   -18.83\n11   -19.03   -18.47   5.430e-09   -18.82\n12   -19.02   -18.42   5.472e-09   -18.79\n13   -19.02   -18.37   5.483e-09   -18.77\n14   -19.01   -18.30   5.550e-09   -18.74\n15   -18.99   -18.24   5.639e-09   -18.71",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>AIC</th>\n      <th>BIC</th>\n      <th>FPE</th>\n      <th>HQIC</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>-18.94</td>\n      <td>-18.92</td>\n      <td>5.952e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.93</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>-19.03</td>\n      <td>-18.96*</td>\n      <td>5.437e-09</td>\n      <td>-19.00*</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>-19.04</td>\n      <td>-18.92</td>\n      <td>5.388e-09</td>\n      <td>-19.00</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>-19.04</td>\n      <td>-18.87</td>\n      <td>5.401e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.97</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>-19.05</td>\n      <td>-18.84</td>\n      <td>5.318e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.97</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>-19.05</td>\n      <td>-18.79</td>\n      <td>5.340e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.95</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>-19.06*</td>\n      <td>-18.75</td>\n      <td>5.271e-09*</td>\n      <td>-18.94</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>-19.05</td>\n      <td>-18.69</td>\n      <td>5.350e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.91</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>8</td>\n      <td>-19.03</td>\n      <td>-18.62</td>\n      <td>5.432e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.87</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>-19.04</td>\n      <td>-18.58</td>\n      <td>5.364e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.87</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>10</td>\n      <td>-19.03</td>\n      <td>-18.52</td>\n      <td>5.455e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.83</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>-19.03</td>\n      <td>-18.47</td>\n      <td>5.430e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.82</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>-19.02</td>\n      <td>-18.42</td>\n      <td>5.472e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.79</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>13</td>\n      <td>-19.02</td>\n      <td>-18.37</td>\n      <td>5.483e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.77</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>-19.01</td>\n      <td>-18.30</td>\n      <td>5.550e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.74</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>-18.99</td>\n      <td>-18.24</td>\n      <td>5.639e-09</td>\n      <td>-18.71</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 21
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# select VAR-order for df_select_train_log_diff: 5\n",
    "df_select_var_order = select_VAR_order(df_select_train_log_diff[1:])\n",
    "df_select_var_order"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "\\begin{tabular}{rllll}\n\\hline\n    & AIC     & BIC     & FPE        & HQIC    \\\\\n\\hline\n  0 & -18.94  & -18.92  & 5.952e-09  & -18.93  \\\\\n  1 & -19.03  & -18.96* & 5.437e-09  & -19.00* \\\\\n  2 & -19.04  & -18.92  & 5.388e-09  & -19.00  \\\\\n  3 & -19.04  & -18.87  & 5.401e-09  & -18.97  \\\\\n  4 & -19.05  & -18.84  & 5.318e-09  & -18.97  \\\\\n  5 & -19.05  & -18.79  & 5.340e-09  & -18.95  \\\\\n  6 & -19.06* & -18.75  & 5.271e-09* & -18.94  \\\\\n  7 & -19.05  & -18.69  & 5.350e-09  & -18.91  \\\\\n  8 & -19.03  & -18.62  & 5.432e-09  & -18.87  \\\\\n  9 & -19.04  & -18.58  & 5.364e-09  & -18.87  \\\\\n 10 & -19.03  & -18.52  & 5.455e-09  & -18.83  \\\\\n 11 & -19.03  & -18.47  & 5.430e-09  & -18.82  \\\\\n 12 & -19.02  & -18.42  & 5.472e-09  & -18.79  \\\\\n 13 & -19.02  & -18.37  & 5.483e-09  & -18.77  \\\\\n 14 & -19.01  & -18.30  & 5.550e-09  & -18.74  \\\\\n 15 & -18.99  & -18.24  & 5.639e-09  & -18.71  \\\\\n\\hline\n\\end{tabular}\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# generate var_select_order latex output from df_select_var_order\n",
    "var_order_aslatex_of_order(df_select_var_order)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "  Summary of Regression Results   \n==================================\nModel:                         VAR\nMethod:                        OLS\nDate:           Thu, 01, Oct, 2020\nTime:                     00:20:58\n--------------------------------------------------------------------\nNo. of Equations:         3.00000    BIC:                   -18.7861\nNobs:                     883.000    HQIC:                  -18.9467\nLog likelihood:           4698.11    FPE:                5.35016e-09\nAIC:                     -19.0462    Det(Omega_mle):     5.06956e-09\n--------------------------------------------------------------------\nResults for equation btc_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.002733         0.001838            1.487           0.137\nL1.btc_log_diff               -0.010046         0.034290           -0.293           0.770\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.098875         0.084176            1.175           0.240\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.032020         0.021715            1.475           0.140\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.018625         0.034225            0.544           0.586\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.004482         0.086448           -0.052           0.959\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.048765         0.021770            2.240           0.025\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.021566         0.034534            0.625           0.532\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.075284         0.086420           -0.871           0.384\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.030308         0.021838            1.388           0.165\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.043457         0.034559            1.257           0.209\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.112133         0.086098            1.302           0.193\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.041528         0.021858            1.900           0.057\nL5.btc_log_diff               -0.008811         0.034568           -0.255           0.799\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.006645         0.083714            0.079           0.937\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.011248         0.021907           -0.513           0.608\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation hs_rate_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.004995         0.000738            6.764           0.000\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.002039         0.013777            0.148           0.882\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.272032         0.033819            8.044           0.000\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.005575         0.008725           -0.639           0.523\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.031761         0.013750            2.310           0.021\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.062717         0.034732            1.806           0.071\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.011328         0.008746           -1.295           0.195\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.008210         0.013875            0.592           0.554\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.032117         0.034721           -0.925           0.355\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.015919         0.008774           -1.814           0.070\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.003694         0.013885           -0.266           0.790\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.130560         0.034592           -3.774           0.000\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.002881         0.008782           -0.328           0.743\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.008159         0.013888            0.587           0.557\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.075401         0.033634           -2.242           0.025\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.021800         0.008801            2.477           0.013\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation ggl_trends_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.000282         0.002877            0.098           0.922\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.021429         0.053678            0.399           0.690\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.018680         0.131771            0.142           0.887\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.066846         0.033994            1.966           0.049\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.100075         0.053576            1.868           0.062\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.147848         0.135327            1.093           0.275\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.052476         0.034079            1.540           0.124\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.065041         0.054059            1.203           0.229\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.068219         0.135283           -0.504           0.614\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.048671         0.034185            1.424           0.155\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.056573         0.054100            1.046           0.296\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.083514         0.134779            0.620           0.535\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.051786         0.034217            1.513           0.130\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.038095         0.054113            0.704           0.481\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.103470         0.131046           -0.790           0.430\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.034923         0.034293           -1.018           0.309\n=========================================================================================\n\nCorrelation matrix of residuals\n                       btc_log_diff  hs_rate_log_diff  ggl_trends_log_diff\nbtc_log_diff               1.000000          0.072793             0.051310\nhs_rate_log_diff           0.072793          1.000000             0.016293\nggl_trends_log_diff        0.051310          0.016293             1.000000\n\n"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 24
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# obtain VAR-model for df_select_train_log_diff and lag order = 5\n",
    "df_select_var = fit_VAR_model_of_df(df_select_train_log_diff[1:], 5)\n",
    "df_select_var.summary()\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrrr}\n\\hline\n                        &   coefficient &   std.error &   t-stat &   prob \\\\\n\\hline\n const                  &        0.005  &      0.0007 &    6.764 &  0     \\\\\n L1.btc\\_log\\_diff        &        0.002  &      0.0138 &    0.148 &  0.882 \\\\\n L1.hs\\_rate\\_log\\_diff    &        0.272  &      0.0338 &    8.044 &  0     \\\\\n L1.ggl\\_trends\\_log\\_diff &       -0.0056 &      0.0087 &   -0.639 &  0.523 \\\\\n L2.btc\\_log\\_diff        &        0.0318 &      0.0138 &    2.31  &  0.021 \\\\\n L2.hs\\_rate\\_log\\_diff    &        0.0627 &      0.0347 &    1.806 &  0.071 \\\\\n L2.ggl\\_trends\\_log\\_diff &       -0.0113 &      0.0087 &   -1.295 &  0.195 \\\\\n L3.btc\\_log\\_diff        &        0.0082 &      0.0139 &    0.592 &  0.554 \\\\\n L3.hs\\_rate\\_log\\_diff    &       -0.0321 &      0.0347 &   -0.925 &  0.355 \\\\\n L3.ggl\\_trends\\_log\\_diff &       -0.0159 &      0.0088 &   -1.814 &  0.07  \\\\\n L4.btc\\_log\\_diff        &       -0.0037 &      0.0139 &   -0.266 &  0.79  \\\\\n L4.hs\\_rate\\_log\\_diff    &       -0.1306 &      0.0346 &   -3.774 &  0     \\\\\n L4.ggl\\_trends\\_log\\_diff &       -0.0029 &      0.0088 &   -0.328 &  0.743 \\\\\n L5.btc\\_log\\_diff        &        0.0082 &      0.0139 &    0.587 &  0.557 \\\\\n L5.hs\\_rate\\_log\\_diff    &       -0.0754 &      0.0336 &   -2.242 &  0.025 \\\\\n L5.ggl\\_trends\\_log\\_diff &        0.0218 &      0.0088 &    2.477 &  0.013 \\\\\n\\hline\n\\end{tabular}\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot var_select_coeffs from textfile as latex: 'M4_df_select_VAR_coefficients.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_df_select_VAR_coefficients.txt')"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "mse_select:\t\t 439.1335176962215\nausreisser_select:\t 14\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: obtain mse, ausreisser, predictions, lo-& up confint for df_select with lag order = 5\n",
    "df_select_var_pred_result = var_rolling_forecast(df[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']], 5)\n",
    "\n",
    "# printout results\n",
    "print('mse_select:\\t\\t', df_select_var_pred_result[0])\n",
    "print('ausreisser_select:\\t', df_select_var_pred_result[1])"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: create series and plot them for df_var_pred_result\n",
    "fig_7 = plot_var_pred_result(df[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_train[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_test[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_select_var_pred_result)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_7\n",
    "fig_7.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_7.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "## VAR: df_train_log_diff (12 Variables) ##"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "        AIC      BIC         FPE     HQIC\n0    -95.56  -95.49*   3.163e-42   -95.53\n1    -95.89   -95.04   2.261e-42  -95.57*\n2    -95.84   -94.20   2.375e-42   -95.22\n3    -95.84   -93.41   2.381e-42   -94.91\n4    -95.86   -92.64   2.344e-42   -94.63\n5   -95.97*   -91.96  2.108e-42*   -94.43\n6    -95.85   -91.06   2.377e-42   -94.02\n7    -95.76   -90.19   2.599e-42   -93.63\n8    -95.67   -89.31   2.858e-42   -93.24\n9    -95.59   -88.44   3.103e-42   -92.86\n10   -95.54   -87.60   3.285e-42   -92.50\n11   -95.46   -86.74   3.570e-42   -92.13\n12   -95.41   -85.90   3.810e-42   -91.77\n13   -95.30   -85.00   4.303e-42   -91.36\n14   -95.25   -84.16   4.572e-42   -91.01\n15   -95.11   -83.24   5.304e-42   -90.57",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>AIC</th>\n      <th>BIC</th>\n      <th>FPE</th>\n      <th>HQIC</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>-95.56</td>\n      <td>-95.49*</td>\n      <td>3.163e-42</td>\n      <td>-95.53</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>-95.89</td>\n      <td>-95.04</td>\n      <td>2.261e-42</td>\n      <td>-95.57*</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>-95.84</td>\n      <td>-94.20</td>\n      <td>2.375e-42</td>\n      <td>-95.22</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>-95.84</td>\n      <td>-93.41</td>\n      <td>2.381e-42</td>\n      <td>-94.91</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>-95.86</td>\n      <td>-92.64</td>\n      <td>2.344e-42</td>\n      <td>-94.63</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>5</td>\n      <td>-95.97*</td>\n      <td>-91.96</td>\n      <td>2.108e-42*</td>\n      <td>-94.43</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>6</td>\n      <td>-95.85</td>\n      <td>-91.06</td>\n      <td>2.377e-42</td>\n      <td>-94.02</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>7</td>\n      <td>-95.76</td>\n      <td>-90.19</td>\n      <td>2.599e-42</td>\n      <td>-93.63</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>8</td>\n      <td>-95.67</td>\n      <td>-89.31</td>\n      <td>2.858e-42</td>\n      <td>-93.24</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>9</td>\n      <td>-95.59</td>\n      <td>-88.44</td>\n      <td>3.103e-42</td>\n      <td>-92.86</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>10</td>\n      <td>-95.54</td>\n      <td>-87.60</td>\n      <td>3.285e-42</td>\n      <td>-92.50</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>11</td>\n      <td>-95.46</td>\n      <td>-86.74</td>\n      <td>3.570e-42</td>\n      <td>-92.13</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>12</td>\n      <td>-95.41</td>\n      <td>-85.90</td>\n      <td>3.810e-42</td>\n      <td>-91.77</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>13</td>\n      <td>-95.30</td>\n      <td>-85.00</td>\n      <td>4.303e-42</td>\n      <td>-91.36</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>14</td>\n      <td>-95.25</td>\n      <td>-84.16</td>\n      <td>4.572e-42</td>\n      <td>-91.01</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <td>15</td>\n      <td>-95.11</td>\n      <td>-83.24</td>\n      <td>5.304e-42</td>\n      <td>-90.57</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n</div>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 26
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# select VAR-order for df_train_log_diff: 5\n",
    "df_var_order = select_VAR_order(df_train_log_diff[1:])\n",
    "df_var_order"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# generate var_order latex output from df_var_order\n",
    "var_order_aslatex_of_order(df_var_order)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "  Summary of Regression Results   \n==================================\nModel:                         VAR\nMethod:                        OLS\nDate:           Thu, 01, Oct, 2020\nTime:                     00:21:14\n--------------------------------------------------------------------\nNo. of Equations:         12.0000    BIC:                   -91.7375\nNobs:                     883.000    HQIC:                  -94.1867\nLog likelihood:           27949.7    FPE:                2.74113e-42\nAIC:                     -95.7028    Det(Omega_mle):     1.22969e-42\n--------------------------------------------------------------------\nResults for equation btc_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.001063         0.003756            0.283           0.777\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.011233         0.039179            0.287           0.774\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff          -10.535739         8.332801           -1.264           0.206\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.154880         0.092997            1.665           0.096\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.010463         0.022999           -0.455           0.649\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.030715         0.022554            1.362           0.173\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.010936         0.009705           -1.127           0.260\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.291642         0.344159           -0.847           0.397\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.057077         0.075051           -0.761           0.447\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.064697         0.228312           -0.283           0.777\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.362927         0.206871            1.754           0.079\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.105338         0.133106           -0.791           0.429\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.015781         0.023299           -0.677           0.498\nL2.btc_log_diff               -0.005614         0.039135           -0.143           0.886\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff            0.208377         8.128596            0.026           0.980\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.022837         0.095400           -0.239           0.811\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.032282         0.022741            1.420           0.156\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.055298         0.022579            2.449           0.014\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.005580         0.010133           -0.551           0.582\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.463790         0.348973            1.329           0.184\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.028737         0.074849           -0.384           0.701\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.196933         0.227400           -0.866           0.386\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.173097         0.216777            0.799           0.425\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.006974         0.133602            0.052           0.958\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.015321         0.026139           -0.586           0.558\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.043961         0.039664            1.108           0.268\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff           11.474082         8.121501            1.413           0.158\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.123853         0.095074           -1.303           0.193\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.018456         0.022791           -0.810           0.418\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.037954         0.022851            1.661           0.097\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.014062         0.010249           -1.372           0.170\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.278530         0.348085           -0.800           0.424\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.092576         0.075214            1.231           0.218\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.294085         0.225928            1.302           0.193\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.116656         0.214646           -0.543           0.587\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.062904         0.132493           -0.475           0.635\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.006191         0.026260           -0.236           0.814\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.032543         0.040085            0.812           0.417\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           -3.925391         8.140425           -0.482           0.630\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.162291         0.094756            1.713           0.087\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.007571         0.022634            0.334           0.738\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.046503         0.023230            2.002           0.045\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff         0.014579         0.010095            1.444           0.149\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.196919         0.348063           -0.566           0.572\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.075088         0.075458            0.995           0.320\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.242515         0.227402           -1.066           0.286\nL4.sp500_log_diff             -0.003468         0.215438           -0.016           0.987\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.096011         0.130144            0.738           0.461\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.012357         0.025858           -0.478           0.633\nL5.btc_log_diff               -0.005141         0.039418           -0.130           0.896\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           10.103143         8.229443            1.228           0.220\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.032652         0.091436           -0.357           0.721\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.023243         0.019409           -1.198           0.231\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.013870         0.023612           -0.587           0.557\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff         0.004210         0.009654            0.436           0.663\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            0.107530         0.348723            0.308           0.758\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.043453         0.075834           -0.573           0.567\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.292881         0.222611           -1.316           0.188\nL5.sp500_log_diff              0.097533         0.210417            0.464           0.643\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.120237         0.123675           -0.972           0.331\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.005358         0.023741           -0.226           0.821\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation tot_btc_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.000083         0.000015            5.395           0.000\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.000109         0.000161            0.680           0.496\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.056532         0.034244           -1.651           0.099\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.000356         0.000382            0.933           0.351\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.000089         0.000095           -0.942           0.346\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.000087         0.000093           -0.940           0.347\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000157         0.000040           -3.933           0.000\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.000122         0.001414           -0.086           0.931\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.000249         0.000308            0.806           0.420\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.000302         0.000938           -0.322           0.748\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.000401         0.000850           -0.471           0.637\nL1.sse_log_diff                0.000846         0.000547            1.546           0.122\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000467         0.000096           -4.873           0.000\nL2.btc_log_diff               -0.000072         0.000161           -0.451           0.652\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff            0.048485         0.033405            1.451           0.147\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.000284         0.000392            0.725           0.468\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.000109         0.000093            1.171           0.241\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.000051         0.000093           -0.545           0.586\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000149         0.000042           -3.571           0.000\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.003691         0.001434            2.574           0.010\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff            0.000077         0.000308            0.251           0.802\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.000858         0.000935           -0.918           0.358\nL2.sp500_log_diff             -0.001971         0.000891           -2.213           0.027\nL2.sse_log_diff               -0.000323         0.000549           -0.589           0.556\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000175         0.000107           -1.629           0.103\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.000025         0.000163            0.156           0.876\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            0.058388         0.033375            1.749           0.080\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.000237         0.000391            0.607           0.544\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.000015         0.000094           -0.159           0.874\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000130         0.000094            1.380           0.168\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000113         0.000042           -2.671           0.008\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff            0.001564         0.001430            1.093           0.274\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.000861         0.000309            2.784           0.005\nL3.gold_log_diff              -0.000253         0.000928           -0.273           0.785\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.000355         0.000882           -0.403           0.687\nL3.sse_log_diff                0.000362         0.000544            0.665           0.506\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000139         0.000108           -1.291           0.197\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.000182         0.000165           -1.103           0.270\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            0.213640         0.033453            6.386           0.000\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.000149         0.000389           -0.381           0.703\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.000173         0.000093            1.856           0.063\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000014         0.000095            0.148           0.882\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000009         0.000041           -0.206           0.837\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.001339         0.001430           -0.936           0.349\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.000142         0.000310           -0.458           0.647\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.000432         0.000935           -0.462           0.644\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.000214         0.000885            0.241           0.809\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.000674         0.000535            1.261           0.207\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000091         0.000106           -0.858           0.391\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.000085         0.000162            0.526           0.599\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            0.383099         0.033819           11.328           0.000\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.000288         0.000376           -0.768           0.443\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.000204         0.000080           -2.553           0.011\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000320         0.000097            3.294           0.001\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000140         0.000040           -3.538           0.000\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            0.002852         0.001433            1.990           0.047\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.000477         0.000312           -1.530           0.126\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.001351         0.000915           -1.477           0.140\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.001195         0.000865           -1.381           0.167\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.000687         0.000508           -1.353           0.176\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.000083         0.000098            0.851           0.395\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation hs_rate_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.005095         0.001469            3.469           0.001\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.024071         0.015320            1.571           0.116\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff          -12.281848         3.258323           -3.769           0.000\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.300130         0.036364            8.254           0.000\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.015517         0.008993           -1.725           0.084\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.007385         0.008819           -0.837           0.402\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.005295         0.003795           -1.395           0.163\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff            0.163534         0.134574            1.215           0.224\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.043827         0.029347            1.493           0.135\nL1.gold_log_diff               0.015795         0.089275            0.177           0.860\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.044627         0.080891           -0.552           0.581\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.022106         0.052047           -0.425           0.671\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.001453         0.009110           -0.160           0.873\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.035905         0.015303            2.346           0.019\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -2.240741         3.178474           -0.705           0.481\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.069240         0.037304            1.856           0.063\nL2.eth_log_diff               -0.005138         0.008892           -0.578           0.563\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.008921         0.008829           -1.010           0.312\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.006096         0.003962           -1.538           0.124\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.369203         0.136457            2.706           0.007\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff            0.008016         0.029268            0.274           0.784\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.119440         0.088919           -1.343           0.179\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.034097         0.084765            0.402           0.687\nL2.sse_log_diff               -0.046593         0.052242           -0.892           0.372\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.003455         0.010221            0.338           0.735\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.012985         0.015510            0.837           0.402\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            0.935075         3.175699            0.294           0.768\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.029310         0.037176           -0.788           0.430\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.001545         0.008912           -0.173           0.862\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.015261         0.008935           -1.708           0.088\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000885         0.004008           -0.221           0.825\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.003387         0.136109           -0.025           0.980\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.030288         0.029410            1.030           0.303\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.087819         0.088343            0.994           0.320\nL3.sp500_log_diff              0.090863         0.083932            1.083           0.279\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.037313         0.051808           -0.720           0.471\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.003131         0.010268            0.305           0.760\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.010544         0.015674           -0.673           0.501\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            2.514299         3.183099            0.790           0.430\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.134306         0.037052           -3.625           0.000\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.011387         0.008850            1.287           0.198\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000429         0.009083            0.047           0.962\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001760         0.003947           -0.446           0.656\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            0.171003         0.136101            1.256           0.209\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.069137         0.029506           -2.343           0.019\nL4.gold_log_diff               0.201450         0.088919            2.266           0.023\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.001688         0.084241            0.020           0.984\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.033012         0.050889            0.649           0.517\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.001741         0.010111            0.172           0.863\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.000054         0.015413            0.004           0.997\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            9.394327         3.217907            2.919           0.004\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.096530         0.035754           -2.700           0.007\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.006171         0.007590            0.813           0.416\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.021641         0.009233            2.344           0.019\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000315         0.003775           -0.084           0.933\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.004099         0.136359           -0.030           0.976\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.010386         0.029653           -0.350           0.726\nL5.gold_log_diff               0.058082         0.087046            0.667           0.505\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.106641         0.082278           -1.296           0.195\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.016031         0.048360           -0.331           0.740\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.007247         0.009283            0.781           0.435\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation eth_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.002625         0.006329            0.415           0.678\nL1.btc_log_diff               -0.160716         0.066009           -2.435           0.015\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff          -14.034205        14.039221           -1.000           0.317\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.158710         0.156682            1.013           0.311\nL1.eth_log_diff                0.085300         0.038750            2.201           0.028\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.010269         0.037998            0.270           0.787\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.003261         0.016352           -0.199           0.842\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.638610         0.579843           -1.101           0.271\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.011838         0.126447           -0.094           0.925\nL1.gold_log_diff               0.264440         0.384663            0.687           0.492\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.131135         0.348539            0.376           0.707\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.111569         0.224258           -0.498           0.619\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.012903         0.039254           -0.329           0.742\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.064309         0.065936            0.975           0.329\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff            5.918675        13.695173            0.432           0.666\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.115036         0.160732            0.716           0.474\nL2.eth_log_diff               -0.029246         0.038314           -0.763           0.445\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.039185         0.038041            1.030           0.303\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.015949         0.017073           -0.934           0.350\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.443167         0.587955            0.754           0.451\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.075354         0.126106           -0.598           0.550\nL2.gold_log_diff               0.083224         0.383127            0.217           0.828\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.408132         0.365228            1.117           0.264\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.225318         0.225095            1.001           0.317\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.026552         0.044039           -0.603           0.547\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.103291         0.066826            1.546           0.122\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff          -10.928980        13.683219           -0.799           0.424\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.107777         0.160182            0.673           0.501\nL3.eth_log_diff                0.052940         0.038398            1.379           0.168\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.047271         0.038500            1.228           0.220\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.014734         0.017267           -0.853           0.393\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.381538         0.586458           -0.651           0.515\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.069659         0.126721           -0.550           0.583\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.537012         0.380647            1.411           0.158\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.259684         0.361638           -0.718           0.473\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.076723         0.223227           -0.344           0.731\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.006162         0.044244           -0.139           0.889\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.050686         0.067536            0.751           0.453\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           11.979075        13.715103            0.873           0.382\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.029710         0.159645           -0.186           0.852\nL4.eth_log_diff               -0.026216         0.038134           -0.687           0.492\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.023483         0.039138           -0.600           0.549\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff         0.024901         0.017008            1.464           0.143\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.081363         0.586422           -0.139           0.890\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.027716         0.127133            0.218           0.827\nL4.gold_log_diff               0.174200         0.383130            0.455           0.649\nL4.sp500_log_diff             -0.227144         0.362973           -0.626           0.531\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.219670         0.219268            1.002           0.316\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.012944         0.043566           -0.297           0.766\nL5.btc_log_diff               -0.129957         0.066412           -1.957           0.050\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            1.504347        13.865082            0.108           0.914\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.259867         0.154053            1.687           0.092\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.089993         0.032701            2.752           0.006\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.039753         0.039782            0.999           0.318\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff         0.015282         0.016265            0.940           0.347\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            0.399007         0.587534            0.679           0.497\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.106672         0.127767           -0.835           0.404\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.547587         0.375058           -1.460           0.144\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.064468         0.354513           -0.182           0.856\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.575909         0.208370           -2.764           0.006\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.016082         0.040000            0.402           0.688\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation ggl_trends_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.002054         0.005748           -0.357           0.721\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.023398         0.059951            0.390           0.696\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff          -15.431202        12.750813           -1.210           0.226\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.114260         0.142303            0.803           0.422\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.006542         0.035193           -0.186           0.853\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.062969         0.034511            1.825           0.068\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.011885         0.014851           -0.800           0.424\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff            0.386924         0.526630            0.735           0.463\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.080968         0.114842            0.705           0.481\nL1.gold_log_diff               0.036672         0.349362            0.105           0.916\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.033202         0.316553           -0.105           0.916\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.280520         0.203678           -1.377           0.168\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.040024         0.035652           -1.123           0.262\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.086915         0.059885            1.451           0.147\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -7.544799        12.438339           -0.607           0.544\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.141064         0.145981            0.966           0.334\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.045303         0.034798            1.302           0.193\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.056924         0.034550            1.648           0.099\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.021460         0.015506           -1.384           0.166\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.236710         0.533997            0.443           0.658\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.012817         0.114533           -0.112           0.911\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.175333         0.347967           -0.504           0.614\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.609533         0.331711            1.838           0.066\nL2.sse_log_diff               -0.436724         0.204438           -2.136           0.033\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.003672         0.039997            0.092           0.927\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.053375         0.060694            0.879           0.379\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            0.673416        12.427482            0.054           0.957\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.058216         0.145482           -0.400           0.689\nL3.eth_log_diff                0.017519         0.034875            0.502           0.615\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.061286         0.034967            1.753           0.080\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff         0.017153         0.015683            1.094           0.274\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.672083         0.532638           -1.262           0.207\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.082978         0.115091           -0.721           0.471\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.343190         0.345714            0.993           0.321\nL3.sp500_log_diff              0.622639         0.328450            1.896           0.058\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.291081         0.202741           -1.436           0.151\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.035688         0.040183           -0.888           0.374\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.066673         0.061338            1.087           0.277\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            6.533867        12.456440            0.525           0.600\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.126527         0.144994            0.873           0.383\nL4.eth_log_diff               -0.029229         0.034635           -0.844           0.399\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.068991         0.035546            1.941           0.052\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff         0.020200         0.015447            1.308           0.191\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.117158         0.532605           -0.220           0.826\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.191430         0.115466           -1.658           0.097\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.353376         0.347969           -1.016           0.310\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.278832         0.329662            0.846           0.398\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.027223         0.199145            0.137           0.891\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.057696         0.039568            1.458           0.145\nL5.btc_log_diff               -0.016644         0.060317           -0.276           0.783\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           21.453203        12.592655            1.704           0.088\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.201968         0.139916           -1.444           0.149\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.025869         0.029700            0.871           0.384\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.048540         0.036132           -1.343           0.179\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff         0.041288         0.014772            2.795           0.005\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.852551         0.533615           -1.598           0.110\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.117254         0.116041           -1.010           0.312\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.741990         0.340638           -2.178           0.029\nL5.sp500_log_diff              0.914648         0.321979            2.841           0.005\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.065669         0.189247           -0.347           0.729\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.042779         0.036329           -1.178           0.239\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation wiki_views_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.005774         0.013425           -0.430           0.667\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.186207         0.140017            1.330           0.184\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            2.842456        29.779761            0.095           0.924\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.408416         0.332351            1.229           0.219\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.038554         0.082195           -0.469           0.639\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.180358         0.080602            2.238           0.025\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.376775         0.034685          -10.863           0.000\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff            1.334263         1.229954            1.085           0.278\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.189873         0.268216            0.708           0.479\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.041451         0.815941           -0.051           0.959\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.172896         0.739316           -0.234           0.815\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.561012         0.475693           -1.179           0.238\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.227107         0.083265           -2.728           0.006\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.254118         0.139862            1.817           0.069\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           10.019619        29.049971            0.345           0.730\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.157978         0.340941           -0.463           0.643\nL2.eth_log_diff               -0.052780         0.081271           -0.649           0.516\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.331702         0.080691            4.111           0.000\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.322989         0.036215           -8.919           0.000\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.788598         1.247161           -0.632           0.527\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.781127         0.267494           -2.920           0.003\nL2.gold_log_diff               1.794408         0.812683            2.208           0.027\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.510134         0.774716            0.658           0.510\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.515742         0.477468            1.080           0.280\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.074748         0.093414           -0.800           0.424\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.078031         0.141751            0.550           0.582\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff          -20.604937        29.024615           -0.710           0.478\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.127224         0.339776           -0.374           0.708\nL3.eth_log_diff                0.002220         0.081450            0.027           0.978\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.258717         0.081666            3.168           0.002\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.297667         0.036627           -8.127           0.000\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.892762         1.243985           -0.718           0.473\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.325903         0.268798           -1.212           0.225\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.828287         0.807423            1.026           0.305\nL3.sp500_log_diff              1.570173         0.767100            2.047           0.041\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.310025         0.473505           -0.655           0.513\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.182982         0.093849           -1.950           0.051\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.098267         0.143256            0.686           0.493\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            6.466629        29.092247            0.222           0.824\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.004411         0.338637            0.013           0.990\nL4.eth_log_diff               -0.006448         0.080890           -0.080           0.936\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.307103         0.083018            3.699           0.000\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.208038         0.036078           -5.766           0.000\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            0.518885         1.243908            0.417           0.677\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.322380         0.269672            1.195           0.232\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.563147         0.812688           -0.693           0.488\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.248721         0.769933            0.323           0.747\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.003795         0.465108            0.008           0.993\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.038537         0.092412           -0.417           0.677\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.174015         0.140871            1.235           0.217\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            6.164083        29.410379            0.210           0.834\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.051677         0.326775            0.158           0.874\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.060237         0.069365           -0.868           0.385\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.379881         0.084386            4.502           0.000\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.075718         0.034500           -2.195           0.028\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            1.159292         1.246267            0.930           0.352\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff            0.273702         0.271016            1.010           0.313\nL5.gold_log_diff              -1.305134         0.795567           -1.641           0.101\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.621737         0.751987           -0.827           0.408\nL5.sse_log_diff                0.400290         0.441991            0.906           0.365\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.019138         0.084847            0.226           0.822\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation usd_eur_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.000088         0.000398            0.222           0.825\nL1.btc_log_diff               -0.005776         0.004153           -1.391           0.164\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            0.553180         0.883280            0.626           0.531\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.002221         0.009858            0.225           0.822\nL1.eth_log_diff                0.002319         0.002438            0.951           0.341\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.003166         0.002391            1.324           0.185\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff         0.001162         0.001029            1.129           0.259\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.009051         0.036481           -0.248           0.804\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.014618         0.007955            1.837           0.066\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.001014         0.024201           -0.042           0.967\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.017522         0.021928           -0.799           0.424\nL1.sse_log_diff                0.019315         0.014109            1.369           0.171\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.002698         0.002470            1.092           0.275\nL2.btc_log_diff               -0.003213         0.004148           -0.774           0.439\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.537789         0.861634           -0.624           0.533\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.004909         0.010112           -0.485           0.627\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.004073         0.002411            1.690           0.091\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.002668         0.002393            1.115           0.265\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff         0.001385         0.001074            1.289           0.197\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.012246         0.036991           -0.331           0.741\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.005936         0.007934           -0.748           0.454\nL2.gold_log_diff               0.001933         0.024105            0.080           0.936\nL2.sp500_log_diff             -0.002999         0.022978           -0.130           0.896\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.004171         0.014162            0.295           0.768\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.007010         0.002771            2.530           0.011\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.005227         0.004204            1.243           0.214\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            0.391482         0.860882            0.455           0.649\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.003733         0.010078            0.370           0.711\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.003018         0.002416           -1.249           0.212\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.004380         0.002422           -1.808           0.071\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff         0.000104         0.001086            0.096           0.924\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.042623         0.036897           -1.155           0.248\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.011775         0.007973           -1.477           0.140\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.026726         0.023948            1.116           0.264\nL3.sp500_log_diff              0.012394         0.022753            0.545           0.586\nL3.sse_log_diff                0.008720         0.014044            0.621           0.535\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.001760         0.002784           -0.632           0.527\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.000950         0.004249            0.224           0.823\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.276106         0.862888           -0.320           0.749\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.013321         0.010044           -1.326           0.185\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.001019         0.002399            0.425           0.671\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.003815         0.002462           -1.549           0.121\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff         0.001677         0.001070            1.567           0.117\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.044466         0.036895           -1.205           0.228\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.008837         0.007999            1.105           0.269\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.014227         0.024105           -0.590           0.555\nL4.sp500_log_diff             -0.016586         0.022837           -0.726           0.468\nL4.sse_log_diff               -0.025507         0.013795           -1.849           0.064\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.005656         0.002741           -2.063           0.039\nL5.btc_log_diff               -0.002999         0.004178           -0.718           0.473\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.250103         0.872324           -0.287           0.774\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.006897         0.009692            0.712           0.477\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.001278         0.002057           -0.621           0.535\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000607         0.002503            0.242           0.808\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff         0.000780         0.001023            0.762           0.446\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.050992         0.036965           -1.379           0.168\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.014155         0.008038           -1.761           0.078\nL5.gold_log_diff               0.043900         0.023597            1.860           0.063\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.001340         0.022304           -0.060           0.952\nL5.sse_log_diff                0.010235         0.013110            0.781           0.435\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000616         0.002517           -0.245           0.807\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation oil_wti_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.000050         0.001811           -0.028           0.978\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.024530         0.018884            1.299           0.194\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            6.933129         4.016348            1.726           0.084\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.015352         0.044824            0.343           0.732\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.002618         0.011086           -0.236           0.813\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.006717         0.010871            0.618           0.537\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001377         0.004678           -0.294           0.768\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.219427         0.165882           -1.323           0.186\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.041216         0.036174           -1.139           0.255\nL1.gold_log_diff               0.018265         0.110045            0.166           0.868\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.270274         0.099710            2.711           0.007\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.026993         0.064156           -0.421           0.674\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.012071         0.011230           -1.075           0.282\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.007702         0.018863            0.408           0.683\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -4.625036         3.917923           -1.180           0.238\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff            0.007307         0.045982            0.159           0.874\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.015151         0.010961            1.382           0.167\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.012721         0.010883            1.169           0.242\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff         0.003327         0.004884            0.681           0.496\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.208550         0.168203           -1.240           0.215\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.036235         0.036076           -1.004           0.315\nL2.gold_log_diff               0.148397         0.109605            1.354           0.176\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.029735         0.104485            0.285           0.776\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.000801         0.064395            0.012           0.990\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.006086         0.012599            0.483           0.629\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.016309         0.019118            0.853           0.394\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff           -1.147237         3.914503           -0.293           0.769\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.023402         0.045825            0.511           0.610\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.032749         0.010985           -2.981           0.003\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.017800         0.011014            1.616           0.106\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff         0.001945         0.004940            0.394           0.694\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.122356         0.167774           -0.729           0.466\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.034952         0.036252           -0.964           0.335\nL3.gold_log_diff              -0.088915         0.108896           -0.817           0.414\nL3.sp500_log_diff              0.138390         0.103458            1.338           0.181\nL3.sse_log_diff                0.087544         0.063861            1.371           0.170\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.007148         0.012657            0.565           0.572\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.019176         0.019321           -0.993           0.321\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            0.372045         3.923624            0.095           0.924\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.010785         0.045671            0.236           0.813\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.030903         0.010909            2.833           0.005\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.025298         0.011196           -2.259           0.024\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff         0.005801         0.004866            1.192           0.233\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            0.343519         0.167764            2.048           0.041\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.066991         0.036370            1.842           0.065\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.064142         0.109606           -0.585           0.558\nL4.sp500_log_diff             -0.104248         0.103840           -1.004           0.315\nL4.sse_log_diff               -0.052078         0.062728           -0.830           0.406\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.010805         0.012463            0.867           0.386\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.011516         0.018999            0.606           0.544\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           -2.239118         3.966530           -0.565           0.572\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.023148         0.044072           -0.525           0.599\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.006916         0.009355            0.739           0.460\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.030271         0.011381           -2.660           0.008\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001260         0.004653           -0.271           0.787\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.205810         0.168082           -1.224           0.221\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff            0.091156         0.036552            2.494           0.013\nL5.gold_log_diff               0.043685         0.107297            0.407           0.684\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.191518         0.101419           -1.888           0.059\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.175974         0.059611           -2.952           0.003\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.001175         0.011443            0.103           0.918\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation gold_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.000935         0.000606           -1.545           0.122\nL1.btc_log_diff               -0.006674         0.006316           -1.057           0.291\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            1.423613         1.343241            1.060           0.289\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.001113         0.014991           -0.074           0.941\nL1.eth_log_diff                0.003504         0.003707            0.945           0.345\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.000471         0.003636           -0.130           0.897\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001685         0.001565           -1.077           0.282\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff            0.308803         0.055478            5.566           0.000\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.022929         0.012098            1.895           0.058\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.040225         0.036804           -1.093           0.274\nL1.sp500_log_diff             -0.075618         0.033347           -2.268           0.023\nL1.sse_log_diff                0.035732         0.021457            1.665           0.096\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.000809         0.003756            0.215           0.830\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.004106         0.006309            0.651           0.515\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.110666         1.310324           -0.084           0.933\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.012974         0.015378           -0.844           0.399\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.000192         0.003666            0.052           0.958\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.005467         0.003640            1.502           0.133\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000662         0.001633           -0.405           0.685\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff            0.036174         0.056254            0.643           0.520\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.001287         0.012066           -0.107           0.915\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.057878         0.036657           -1.579           0.114\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.008768         0.034944            0.251           0.802\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.011481         0.021537            0.533           0.594\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.002608         0.004214            0.619           0.536\nL3.btc_log_diff               -0.011910         0.006394           -1.863           0.063\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            2.016346         1.309180            1.540           0.124\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.001609         0.015326           -0.105           0.916\nL3.eth_log_diff                0.007418         0.003674            2.019           0.043\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.000275         0.003684            0.075           0.940\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.002693         0.001652           -1.630           0.103\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.007988         0.056111           -0.142           0.887\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.019683         0.012124           -1.623           0.104\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.088018         0.036419            2.417           0.016\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.011572         0.034601           -0.334           0.738\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.000860         0.021358           -0.040           0.968\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.004175         0.004233            0.986           0.324\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.001374         0.006462            0.213           0.832\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff            1.260120         1.312231            0.960           0.337\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.021877         0.015275           -1.432           0.152\nL4.eth_log_diff               -0.002887         0.003649           -0.791           0.429\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.007117         0.003745            1.901           0.057\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.002595         0.001627           -1.595           0.111\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.021363         0.056108           -0.381           0.703\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.005815         0.012164            0.478           0.633\nL4.gold_log_diff               0.016872         0.036657            0.460           0.645\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.022632         0.034728            0.652           0.515\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.003369         0.020979            0.161           0.872\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.003092         0.004168           -0.742           0.458\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.005736         0.006354            0.903           0.367\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            1.348493         1.326580            1.017           0.309\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.006470         0.014739            0.439           0.661\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.004633         0.003129           -1.481           0.139\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.001859         0.003806           -0.489           0.625\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001097         0.001556           -0.705           0.481\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            0.012077         0.056214            0.215           0.830\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.011431         0.012224           -0.935           0.350\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.035690         0.035885           -0.995           0.320\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.015804         0.033919           -0.466           0.641\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.018672         0.019936           -0.937           0.349\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.000807         0.003827           -0.211           0.833\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation sp500_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                          0.000186         0.000676            0.275           0.783\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.007279         0.007053            1.032           0.302\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            0.675097         1.500037            0.450           0.653\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.024843         0.016741            1.484           0.138\nL1.eth_log_diff                0.003016         0.004140            0.728           0.466\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.004781         0.004060           -1.178           0.239\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000231         0.001747           -0.132           0.895\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff            0.053895         0.061954            0.870           0.384\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.002257         0.013510            0.167           0.867\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.065977         0.041100           -1.605           0.108\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.013636         0.037240            0.366           0.714\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.020280         0.023961           -0.846           0.397\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.014202         0.004194           -3.386           0.001\nL2.btc_log_diff               -0.000418         0.007045           -0.059           0.953\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff            0.175642         1.463277            0.120           0.904\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.010491         0.017174           -0.611           0.541\nL2.eth_log_diff               -0.002821         0.004094           -0.689           0.491\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.006009         0.004065           -1.478           0.139\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.002863         0.001824           -1.569           0.117\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.029881         0.062821           -0.476           0.634\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.018424         0.013474           -1.367           0.172\nL2.gold_log_diff               0.016073         0.040936            0.393           0.695\nL2.sp500_log_diff             -0.028318         0.039023           -0.726           0.468\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.011767         0.024051            0.489           0.625\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.002295         0.004705           -0.488           0.626\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.019352         0.007140            2.710           0.007\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff            0.547134         1.462000            0.374           0.708\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.006149         0.017115           -0.359           0.719\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.005810         0.004103           -1.416           0.157\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.011671         0.004114            2.837           0.005\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.004853         0.001845           -2.630           0.009\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.012359         0.062661           -0.197           0.844\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.002618         0.013540            0.193           0.847\nL3.gold_log_diff               0.009365         0.040671            0.230           0.818\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.029038         0.038640           -0.752           0.452\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.022002         0.023851           -0.922           0.356\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.001227         0.004727           -0.260           0.795\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.009085         0.007216           -1.259           0.208\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.807146         1.465407           -0.551           0.582\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.027834         0.017058            1.632           0.103\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.009873         0.004074            2.423           0.015\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.004091         0.004182           -0.978           0.328\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000189         0.001817           -0.104           0.917\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            0.118810         0.062657            1.896           0.058\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.015256         0.013584           -1.123           0.261\nL4.gold_log_diff               0.059406         0.040936            1.451           0.147\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.040306         0.038782            1.039           0.299\nL4.sse_log_diff                0.050406         0.023428            2.152           0.031\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.004041         0.004655            0.868           0.385\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.012730         0.007096            1.794           0.073\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.594648         1.481431           -0.401           0.688\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.017234         0.016460           -1.047           0.295\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.001147         0.003494            0.328           0.743\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.000796         0.004251           -0.187           0.851\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000161         0.001738           -0.093           0.926\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.076133         0.062776           -1.213           0.225\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.003174         0.013651           -0.233           0.816\nL5.gold_log_diff               0.059861         0.040074            1.494           0.135\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.020955         0.037878           -0.553           0.580\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.019155         0.022264           -0.860           0.390\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.001502         0.004274           -0.351           0.725\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation sse_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.000204         0.001001           -0.204           0.839\nL1.btc_log_diff               -0.000722         0.010445           -0.069           0.945\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            1.214852         2.221432            0.547           0.584\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.019730         0.024792           -0.796           0.426\nL1.eth_log_diff                0.004053         0.006131            0.661           0.509\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.001887         0.006013            0.314           0.754\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff         0.002455         0.002587            0.949           0.343\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.062559         0.091749           -0.682           0.495\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff            0.020717         0.020008            1.035           0.300\nL1.gold_log_diff              -0.004381         0.060865           -0.072           0.943\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.531492         0.055150            9.637           0.000\nL1.sse_log_diff               -0.097833         0.035484           -2.757           0.006\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.008766         0.006211            1.411           0.158\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.020524         0.010433            1.967           0.049\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff           -2.834063         2.166993           -1.308           0.191\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.022876         0.025433           -0.899           0.368\nL2.eth_log_diff               -0.012528         0.006062           -2.066           0.039\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.005412         0.006019           -0.899           0.369\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff         0.002198         0.002701            0.814           0.416\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.090518         0.093032           -0.973           0.331\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.010014         0.019954           -0.502           0.616\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.009029         0.060622           -0.149           0.882\nL2.sp500_log_diff              0.071990         0.057790            1.246           0.213\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.064135         0.035617            1.801           0.072\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.011145         0.006968            1.599           0.110\nL3.btc_log_diff                0.033754         0.010574            3.192           0.001\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff           -1.550419         2.165101           -0.716           0.474\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.008601         0.025346            0.339           0.734\nL3.eth_log_diff               -0.020567         0.006076           -3.385           0.001\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.003139         0.006092            0.515           0.606\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.001474         0.002732           -0.540           0.590\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff            0.166689         0.092795            1.796           0.072\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.001227         0.020051            0.061           0.951\nL3.gold_log_diff              -0.065780         0.060230           -1.092           0.275\nL3.sp500_log_diff              0.115894         0.057222            2.025           0.043\nL3.sse_log_diff               -0.024825         0.035321           -0.703           0.482\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.012432         0.007001           -1.776           0.076\nL4.btc_log_diff               -0.002455         0.010686           -0.230           0.818\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           -0.791788         2.170146           -0.365           0.715\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.014187         0.025261           -0.562           0.574\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.010102         0.006034            1.674           0.094\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.013154         0.006193           -2.124           0.034\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.000748         0.002691           -0.278           0.781\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            0.134213         0.092790            1.446           0.148\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.012488         0.020116            0.621           0.535\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.055153         0.060623           -0.910           0.363\nL4.sp500_log_diff              0.101821         0.057433            1.773           0.076\nL4.sse_log_diff               -0.020277         0.034695           -0.584           0.559\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff           0.006094         0.006894            0.884           0.377\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.029127         0.010508            2.772           0.006\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff            2.087461         2.193877            0.951           0.341\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff            0.016406         0.024376            0.673           0.501\nL5.eth_log_diff               -0.012241         0.005174           -2.366           0.018\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.002296         0.006295            0.365           0.715\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.005022         0.002574           -1.951           0.051\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.059485         0.092966           -0.640           0.522\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff            0.016746         0.020217            0.828           0.407\nL5.gold_log_diff               0.062103         0.059346            1.046           0.295\nL5.sp500_log_diff              0.026764         0.056095            0.477           0.633\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.075756         0.032970           -2.298           0.022\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.005734         0.006329           -0.906           0.365\n=========================================================================================\n\nResults for equation ffd_rate_log_diff\n=========================================================================================\n                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob\n-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nconst                         -0.001090         0.005563           -0.196           0.845\nL1.btc_log_diff                0.012419         0.058017            0.214           0.831\nL1.tot_btc_log_diff            6.418980        12.339520            0.520           0.603\nL1.hs_rate_log_diff            0.055053         0.137713            0.400           0.689\nL1.eth_log_diff               -0.036184         0.034058           -1.062           0.288\nL1.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.032907         0.033398            0.985           0.324\nL1.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.025863         0.014372           -1.800           0.072\nL1.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.199989         0.509643           -0.392           0.695\nL1.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.141950         0.111138           -1.277           0.202\nL1.gold_log_diff               0.129323         0.338093            0.383           0.702\nL1.sp500_log_diff              0.067265         0.306342            0.220           0.826\nL1.sse_log_diff                0.395114         0.197108            2.005           0.045\nL1.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.487194         0.034502          -14.121           0.000\nL2.btc_log_diff                0.009539         0.057953            0.165           0.869\nL2.tot_btc_log_diff          -20.920570        12.037124           -1.738           0.082\nL2.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.147367         0.141272           -1.043           0.297\nL2.eth_log_diff                0.023813         0.033676            0.707           0.479\nL2.ggl_trends_log_diff        -0.043508         0.033435           -1.301           0.193\nL2.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.030436         0.015006           -2.028           0.043\nL2.usd_eur_log_diff           -0.396885         0.516773           -0.768           0.442\nL2.oil_wti_log_diff           -0.321609         0.110839           -2.902           0.004\nL2.gold_log_diff              -0.191784         0.336743           -0.570           0.569\nL2.sp500_log_diff             -0.154952         0.321011           -0.483           0.629\nL2.sse_log_diff                0.260787         0.197843            1.318           0.187\nL2.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.240529         0.038707           -6.214           0.000\nL3.btc_log_diff               -0.073667         0.058736           -1.254           0.210\nL3.tot_btc_log_diff           33.205302        12.026618            2.761           0.006\nL3.hs_rate_log_diff            0.166990         0.140789            1.186           0.236\nL3.eth_log_diff                0.082048         0.033750            2.431           0.015\nL3.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.021849         0.033839            0.646           0.518\nL3.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.046951         0.015177           -3.094           0.002\nL3.usd_eur_log_diff            0.288931         0.515457            0.561           0.575\nL3.oil_wti_log_diff            0.121515         0.111379            1.091           0.275\nL3.gold_log_diff              -0.343202         0.334563           -1.026           0.305\nL3.sp500_log_diff             -0.248469         0.317855           -0.782           0.434\nL3.sse_log_diff                0.153442         0.196201            0.782           0.434\nL3.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.118518         0.038887           -3.048           0.002\nL4.btc_log_diff                0.024528         0.059359            0.413           0.679\nL4.tot_btc_log_diff           -8.451649        12.054642           -0.701           0.483\nL4.hs_rate_log_diff            0.070831         0.140317            0.505           0.614\nL4.eth_log_diff                0.034184         0.033517            1.020           0.308\nL4.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.060184         0.034399            1.750           0.080\nL4.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.054569         0.014949           -3.650           0.000\nL4.usd_eur_log_diff            1.035600         0.515425            2.009           0.045\nL4.oil_wti_log_diff            0.124500         0.111741            1.114           0.265\nL4.gold_log_diff              -0.530641         0.336745           -1.576           0.115\nL4.sp500_log_diff             -0.079365         0.319029           -0.249           0.804\nL4.sse_log_diff               -0.028507         0.192722           -0.148           0.882\nL4.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.023870         0.038292           -0.623           0.533\nL5.btc_log_diff                0.055090         0.058371            0.944           0.345\nL5.tot_btc_log_diff           17.703450        12.186463            1.453           0.146\nL5.hs_rate_log_diff           -0.022087         0.135402           -0.163           0.870\nL5.eth_log_diff                0.014338         0.028742            0.499           0.618\nL5.ggl_trends_log_diff         0.031225         0.034966            0.893           0.372\nL5.wiki_views_log_diff        -0.066947         0.014296           -4.683           0.000\nL5.usd_eur_log_diff            0.123073         0.516402            0.238           0.812\nL5.oil_wti_log_diff            0.002596         0.112298            0.023           0.982\nL5.gold_log_diff              -0.607631         0.329651           -1.843           0.065\nL5.sp500_log_diff             -0.514814         0.311593           -1.652           0.098\nL5.sse_log_diff               -0.161185         0.183143           -0.880           0.379\nL5.ffd_rate_log_diff          -0.028076         0.035157           -0.799           0.425\n=========================================================================================\n\nCorrelation matrix of residuals\n                       btc_log_diff  tot_btc_log_diff  hs_rate_log_diff  eth_log_diff  ggl_trends_log_diff  wiki_views_log_diff  usd_eur_log_diff  oil_wti_log_diff  gold_log_diff  sp500_log_diff  sse_log_diff  ffd_rate_log_diff\nbtc_log_diff               1.000000          0.104268          0.072003      0.450318             0.038280             0.057372          0.001065         -0.018179       0.052576        0.010738      0.006786          -0.031578\ntot_btc_log_diff           0.104268          1.000000          0.304008      0.106771             0.026919             0.112671         -0.037761         -0.101360       0.081479       -0.026240      0.034982           0.047162\nhs_rate_log_diff           0.072003          0.304008          1.000000      0.084595            -0.007960             0.024508         -0.002082         -0.031731       0.041942       -0.048644     -0.009040          -0.011638\neth_log_diff               0.450318          0.106771          0.084595      1.000000            -0.017677             0.027930         -0.016898         -0.051609       0.111002        0.049025      0.059349          -0.041515\nggl_trends_log_diff        0.038280          0.026919         -0.007960     -0.017677             1.000000             0.077014          0.033745         -0.074380       0.025312       -0.074535     -0.024140          -0.019144\nwiki_views_log_diff        0.057372          0.112671          0.024508      0.027930             0.077014             1.000000          0.027512         -0.044743       0.011702       -0.054890     -0.016861           0.010509\nusd_eur_log_diff           0.001065         -0.037761         -0.002082     -0.016898             0.033745             0.027512          1.000000          0.045454       0.297030       -0.024927     -0.039385          -0.018023\noil_wti_log_diff          -0.018179         -0.101360         -0.031731     -0.051609            -0.074380            -0.044743          0.045454          1.000000      -0.004710        0.287701      0.077465          -0.052195\ngold_log_diff              0.052576          0.081479          0.041942      0.111002             0.025312             0.011702          0.297030         -0.004710       1.000000       -0.018014     -0.000486           0.022809\nsp500_log_diff             0.010738         -0.026240         -0.048644      0.049025            -0.074535            -0.054890         -0.024927          0.287701      -0.018014        1.000000      0.219982          -0.057395\nsse_log_diff               0.006786          0.034982         -0.009040      0.059349            -0.024140            -0.016861         -0.039385          0.077465      -0.000486        0.219982      1.000000           0.010483\nffd_rate_log_diff         -0.031578          0.047162         -0.011638     -0.041515            -0.019144             0.010509         -0.018023         -0.052195       0.022809       -0.057395      0.010483           1.000000\n\n"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 27
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# obtain VAR-model for df_train_log_diff and lag order = 5\n",
    "df_var = fit_VAR_model_of_df(df_train_log_diff[1:], 5)\n",
    "df_var.summary()\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "traceback": [
      "\u001b[1;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[1;31mFileNotFoundError\u001b[0m                         Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "\u001b[1;32m<ipython-input-28-63001530579a>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m<module>\u001b[1;34m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m      1\u001b[0m \u001b[1;31m# read in and plot var_coeffs from textfile: 'M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt'\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m----> 2\u001b[1;33m \u001b[0mvar_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m'M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt'\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m      3\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m<ipython-input-8-cbffe777a9c1>\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mvar_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt\u001b[1;34m(filepath)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    182\u001b[0m \u001b[1;32mdef\u001b[0m \u001b[0mvar_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mfilepath\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    183\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;31m# read in df from textfile\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m--> 184\u001b[1;33m     \u001b[0mvar_btc_coefficients\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mpd\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mread_csv\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0msave_plot_to\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m+\u001b[0m\u001b[0mfilepath\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mdelimiter\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m'\\s+'\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mheader\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m    185\u001b[0m     \u001b[0mvar_btc_coefficients\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mset_index\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mvar_btc_coefficients\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mcolumns\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m[\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m]\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0minplace\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m\u001b[1;32mTrue\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    186\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;31m# generate latex output\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m~\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\io\\parsers.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mparser_f\u001b[1;34m(filepath_or_buffer, sep, delimiter, header, names, index_col, usecols, squeeze, prefix, mangle_dupe_cols, dtype, engine, converters, true_values, false_values, skipinitialspace, skiprows, skipfooter, nrows, na_values, keep_default_na, na_filter, verbose, skip_blank_lines, parse_dates, infer_datetime_format, keep_date_col, date_parser, dayfirst, cache_dates, iterator, chunksize, compression, thousands, decimal, lineterminator, quotechar, quoting, doublequote, escapechar, comment, encoding, dialect, error_bad_lines, warn_bad_lines, delim_whitespace, low_memory, memory_map, float_precision)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    683\u001b[0m         )\n\u001b[0;32m    684\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m--> 685\u001b[1;33m         \u001b[1;32mreturn\u001b[0m \u001b[0m_read\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mfilepath_or_buffer\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mkwds\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m    686\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    687\u001b[0m     \u001b[0mparser_f\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m__name__\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mname\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m~\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\io\\parsers.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m_read\u001b[1;34m(filepath_or_buffer, kwds)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    455\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    456\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;31m# Create the parser.\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m--> 457\u001b[1;33m     \u001b[0mparser\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mTextFileReader\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mfp_or_buf\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m**\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkwds\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m    458\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    459\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mchunksize\u001b[0m \u001b[1;32mor\u001b[0m \u001b[0miterator\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m~\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\io\\parsers.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m__init__\u001b[1;34m(self, f, engine, **kwds)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    893\u001b[0m             \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0moptions\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m[\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m\"has_index_names\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m]\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mkwds\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m[\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m\"has_index_names\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m]\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    894\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m--> 895\u001b[1;33m         \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_make_engine\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mengine\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m    896\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m    897\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;32mdef\u001b[0m \u001b[0mclose\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m~\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\io\\parsers.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m_make_engine\u001b[1;34m(self, engine)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1133\u001b[0m     \u001b[1;32mdef\u001b[0m \u001b[0m_make_engine\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[0mengine\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m\"c\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1134\u001b[0m         \u001b[1;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mengine\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m==\u001b[0m \u001b[1;34m\"c\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m-> 1135\u001b[1;33m             \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_engine\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mCParserWrapper\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mf\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m**\u001b[0m\u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0moptions\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m   1136\u001b[0m         \u001b[1;32melse\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1137\u001b[0m             \u001b[1;32mif\u001b[0m \u001b[0mengine\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m==\u001b[0m \u001b[1;34m\"python\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m:\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32m~\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\pandas\\io\\parsers.py\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36m__init__\u001b[1;34m(self, src, **kwds)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1915\u001b[0m         \u001b[0mkwds\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m[\u001b[0m\u001b[1;34m\"usecols\"\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m]\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0musecols\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1916\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m-> 1917\u001b[1;33m         \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_reader\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mparsers\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0mTextReader\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m(\u001b[0m\u001b[0msrc\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m,\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m**\u001b[0m\u001b[0mkwds\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m)\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0m\u001b[0;32m   1918\u001b[0m         \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0munnamed_cols\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m=\u001b[0m \u001b[0mself\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0m_reader\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m.\u001b[0m\u001b[0munnamed_cols\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n\u001b[0;32m   1919\u001b[0m \u001b[1;33m\u001b[0m\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32mpandas\\_libs\\parsers.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.parsers.TextReader.__cinit__\u001b[1;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;32mpandas\\_libs\\parsers.pyx\u001b[0m in \u001b[0;36mpandas._libs.parsers.TextReader._setup_parser_source\u001b[1;34m()\u001b[0m\n",
      "\u001b[1;31mFileNotFoundError\u001b[0m: [Errno 2] File b'C:\\\\\\\\Users\\\\joche\\\\OneDrive\\\\03 TUM - TUM-BWL\\\\Semester 8\\\\01 Bachelorarbeit\\\\04 Results\\\\Plots/M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt' does not exist: b'C:\\\\\\\\Users\\\\joche\\\\OneDrive\\\\03 TUM - TUM-BWL\\\\Semester 8\\\\01 Bachelorarbeit\\\\04 Results\\\\Plots/M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt'"
     ],
     "ename": "FileNotFoundError",
     "evalue": "[Errno 2] File b'C:\\\\\\\\Users\\\\joche\\\\OneDrive\\\\03 TUM - TUM-BWL\\\\Semester 8\\\\01 Bachelorarbeit\\\\04 Results\\\\Plots/M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt' does not exist: b'C:\\\\\\\\Users\\\\joche\\\\OneDrive\\\\03 TUM - TUM-BWL\\\\Semester 8\\\\01 Bachelorarbeit\\\\04 Results\\\\Plots/M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt'",
     "output_type": "error"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot var_coeffs from textfile: 'M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_df_VAR_coefficients.txt')"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# IRF: impulse response of df_var\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.irf import IRAnalysis\n",
    "df_var_irf = df_var.irf(15)\n",
    "fig_9 = df_var_irf.plot(orth=False, impulse = 'btc_log_diff', response='wiki_views_log_diff', figsize=(8,15),subplot_params={'fontsize' : 9})\n",
    "fig_9.tight_layout()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_9\n",
    "fig_9.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_9.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# IRF: cumulative impulse responses of df_var\n",
    "fig_10 = df_var_irf.plot_cum_effects(orth=False, impulse = 'btc_log_diff', response='wiki_views_log_diff',figsize=(8,15),subplot_params={'fontsize' : 9})\n",
    "fig_10.tight_layout()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_10\n",
    "fig_10.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_10.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\ipykernel_launcher.py:29: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log\nC:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\ipykernel_launcher.py:210: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log\nC:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\ipykernel_launcher.py:211: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log\nC:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\ipykernel_launcher.py:212: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in log\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "mse:\t\t 507.96568585996687\nausreisser:\t 17\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: obtain mse, ausreisser, predictions, lo-& up confint for df with lag order = 5\n",
    "df_var_pred_result = var_rolling_forecast(df, 5)\n",
    "# printout results\n",
    "print('mse:\\t\\t', df_var_pred_result[0])\n",
    "print('ausreisser:\\t', df_var_pred_result[1])"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: create series and plot them for df_var_pred_result\n",
    "fig_8 = plot_var_pred_result(df,df_train,df_test,df_var_pred_result)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_8\n",
    "fig_8.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_8.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "## VECM: df_select_train_log (3 Variables) ##"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "## ARCHIVE ##\n",
    "# series and lag plot to show trend and autocorrelation\n",
    "fig, axs = plt.subplots(2,1)\n",
    "axs[0].plot(df_log)\n",
    "pd.plotting.lag_plot(df_log, ax = axs[1])\n"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 30,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# based on granger-causality: new df with btc, hs_rate and ggl_trends\n",
    "df_select_train_log = df_train_log[['btc_log','hs_rate_log','ggl_trends_log']]"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 31,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Johansen cointegration test using trace test statistic with 5% significance level\n=====================================\nr_0 r_1 test statistic critical value\n-------------------------------------\n  0   3          57.72          24.28\n  1   3          28.34          12.32\n  2   3          3.164          4.130\n-------------------------------------\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# determine cointegration rank of df_select_train_log with trace statistic\n",
    "print_select_coint_rank(df_select_train_log,'trace',10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_select_tab_10_cointrank_trace.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_select_tab_10_cointrank_trace.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Johansen cointegration test using maximum eigenvalue test statistic with 5% significance level\n=====================================\nr_0 r_1 test statistic critical value\n-------------------------------------\n  0   1          29.38          17.80\n  1   2          25.17          11.22\n  2   3          3.164          4.130\n-------------------------------------\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# determine cointegration rank of df_select_train_log with maxeig statistic\n",
    "print_select_coint_rank(df_select_train_log,'maxeig',10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_select_tab_11_cointrank_maxeig.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_select_tab_11_cointrank_maxeig.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 33,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      " Variable  \t\ttest-statistic\tCV(95%)\t\tSignif\n\nbtc_log \t 57.72     \t 24.2761  \t True\nhs_rate_log \t 28.34     \t 12.3212  \t True\nggl_trends_log \t 3.16      \t 4.1296   \t False\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# print out johansen cointegration result for df_select_train_log\n",
    "print_cointegration_test_of(df_select_train_log,10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_select_tab_12_johansen_cointrank_trace.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_select_tab_12_johansen_cointrank_trace.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "<class 'statsmodels.iolib.summary.Summary'>\n\"\"\"\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation btc_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.0004      0.034     -0.012      0.991      -0.066       0.066\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0893      0.082      1.090      0.276      -0.071       0.250\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0187      0.022      0.863      0.388      -0.024       0.061\nL2.btc_log            0.0270      0.034      0.800      0.424      -0.039       0.093\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0065      0.085     -0.077      0.939      -0.173       0.160\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0345      0.022      1.592      0.111      -0.008       0.077\nL3.btc_log            0.0270      0.034      0.796      0.426      -0.039       0.093\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0781      0.085     -0.923      0.356      -0.244       0.088\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0156      0.022      0.715      0.475      -0.027       0.058\nL4.btc_log            0.0472      0.034      1.390      0.165      -0.019       0.114\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.1085      0.081      1.336      0.182      -0.051       0.268\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.0261      0.022      1.193      0.233      -0.017       0.069\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation hs_rate_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0033      0.014      0.243      0.808      -0.024       0.030\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.2812      0.033      8.437      0.000       0.216       0.347\nL1.ggl_trends_log    -0.0056      0.009     -0.636      0.525      -0.023       0.012\nL2.btc_log            0.0347      0.014      2.524      0.012       0.008       0.062\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.0599      0.035      1.736      0.083      -0.008       0.128\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0111      0.009     -1.255      0.209      -0.028       0.006\nL3.btc_log            0.0106      0.014      0.764      0.445      -0.017       0.038\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0396      0.034     -1.149      0.250      -0.107       0.028\nL3.ggl_trends_log    -0.0166      0.009     -1.869      0.062      -0.034       0.001\nL4.btc_log           -0.0020      0.014     -0.143      0.886      -0.029       0.025\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.1519      0.033     -4.591      0.000      -0.217      -0.087\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0032      0.009     -0.357      0.721      -0.021       0.014\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ggl_trends_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.0026      0.053     -0.049      0.961      -0.106       0.100\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0722      0.128      0.566      0.571      -0.178       0.322\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0907      0.034      2.690      0.007       0.025       0.157\nL2.btc_log            0.0814      0.053      1.549      0.121      -0.022       0.184\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.1811      0.132      1.370      0.171      -0.078       0.440\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0791      0.034      2.338      0.019       0.013       0.145\nL3.btc_log            0.0485      0.053      0.917      0.359      -0.055       0.152\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0454      0.132     -0.344      0.731      -0.304       0.213\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0758      0.034      2.232      0.026       0.009       0.142\nL4.btc_log            0.0446      0.053      0.842      0.400      -0.059       0.148\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0818      0.127      0.646      0.518      -0.167       0.330\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.0805      0.034      2.360      0.018       0.014       0.147\n              Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation btc_log               \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0271      0.008     -3.537      0.000      -0.042      -0.012\nec2            0.0102      0.003      3.557      0.000       0.005       0.016\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation hs_rate_log             \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0014      0.003     -0.453      0.651      -0.008       0.005\nec2            0.0006      0.001      0.549      0.583      -0.002       0.003\n           Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ggl_trends_log           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0541      0.012      4.527      0.000       0.031       0.078\nec2           -0.0203      0.004     -4.537      0.000      -0.029      -0.012\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 1           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.2      2.237e-16          0          0      0.000    2.24e-16    2.24e-16\nbeta.3         3.7538      1.118      3.357      0.001       1.562       5.945\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 2           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1       3.59e-15          0          0      0.000    3.59e-15    3.59e-15\nbeta.2         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.3        12.3941      2.981      4.158      0.000       6.552      18.236\n==============================================================================\n\"\"\"",
      "text/html": "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0004</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td> 0.991</td> <td>   -0.066</td> <td>    0.066</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0893</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td>    1.090</td> <td> 0.276</td> <td>   -0.071</td> <td>    0.250</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0187</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    0.863</td> <td> 0.388</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.061</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0270</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    0.800</td> <td> 0.424</td> <td>   -0.039</td> <td>    0.093</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0065</td> <td>    0.085</td> <td>   -0.077</td> <td> 0.939</td> <td>   -0.173</td> <td>    0.160</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0345</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    1.592</td> <td> 0.111</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.077</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0270</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    0.796</td> <td> 0.426</td> <td>   -0.039</td> <td>    0.093</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0781</td> <td>    0.085</td> <td>   -0.923</td> <td> 0.356</td> <td>   -0.244</td> <td>    0.088</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0156</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    0.715</td> <td> 0.475</td> <td>   -0.027</td> <td>    0.058</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0472</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    1.390</td> <td> 0.165</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.114</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1085</td> <td>    0.081</td> <td>    1.336</td> <td> 0.182</td> <td>   -0.051</td> <td>    0.268</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0261</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    1.193</td> <td> 0.233</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.069</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation hs_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0033</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    0.243</td> <td> 0.808</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.2812</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    8.437</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.216</td> <td>    0.347</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0056</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.636</td> <td> 0.525</td> <td>   -0.023</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0347</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    2.524</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>    0.062</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0599</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    1.736</td> <td> 0.083</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.128</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0111</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -1.255</td> <td> 0.209</td> <td>   -0.028</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0106</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    0.764</td> <td> 0.445</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.038</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0396</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -1.149</td> <td> 0.250</td> <td>   -0.107</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0166</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -1.869</td> <td> 0.062</td> <td>   -0.034</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0020</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>   -0.143</td> <td> 0.886</td> <td>   -0.029</td> <td>    0.025</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.1519</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>   -4.591</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.217</td> <td>   -0.087</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0032</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.357</td> <td> 0.721</td> <td>   -0.021</td> <td>    0.014</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ggl_trends_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0026</td> <td>    0.053</td> <td>   -0.049</td> <td> 0.961</td> <td>   -0.106</td> <td>    0.100</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0722</td> <td>    0.128</td> <td>    0.566</td> <td> 0.571</td> <td>   -0.178</td> <td>    0.322</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0907</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    2.690</td> <td> 0.007</td> <td>    0.025</td> <td>    0.157</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0814</td> <td>    0.053</td> <td>    1.549</td> <td> 0.121</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.184</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1811</td> <td>    0.132</td> <td>    1.370</td> <td> 0.171</td> <td>   -0.078</td> <td>    0.440</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0791</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    2.338</td> <td> 0.019</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.145</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0485</td> <td>    0.053</td> <td>    0.917</td> <td> 0.359</td> <td>   -0.055</td> <td>    0.152</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0454</td> <td>    0.132</td> <td>   -0.344</td> <td> 0.731</td> <td>   -0.304</td> <td>    0.213</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0758</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    2.232</td> <td> 0.026</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>    0.142</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0446</td> <td>    0.053</td> <td>    0.842</td> <td> 0.400</td> <td>   -0.059</td> <td>    0.148</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0818</td> <td>    0.127</td> <td>    0.646</td> <td> 0.518</td> <td>   -0.167</td> <td>    0.330</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0805</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    2.360</td> <td> 0.018</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    0.147</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0271</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>   -3.537</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.042</td> <td>   -0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0102</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    3.557</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.016</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation hs_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0014</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -0.453</td> <td> 0.651</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.549</td> <td> 0.583</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ggl_trends_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0541</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>    4.527</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.031</td> <td>    0.078</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>   -0.0203</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -4.537</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.029</td> <td>   -0.012</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 1</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>       <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th> <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th> <td> 2.237e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.24e-16</td> <td> 2.24e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th> <td>    3.7538</td> <td>    1.118</td> <td>    3.357</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>    1.562</td> <td>    5.945</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 2</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>       <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th> <td>  3.59e-15</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 3.59e-15</td> <td> 3.59e-15</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th> <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th> <td>   12.3941</td> <td>    2.981</td> <td>    4.158</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    6.552</td> <td>   18.236</td>\n</tr>\n</table>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 34
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# obtain VECM(4) for df_select_train_log\n",
    "df_select_vecm = get_vecm_model(df_select_train_log,4,2,'nc')\n",
    "df_select_vecm.summary()\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 29,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "\\begin{tabular}{lrrrrrr}\n\\hline\n                   &    coef &   std.err &      z &   P\\ensuremath{>}|z| &   [0.025 &   0.975] \\\\\n\\hline\n L1.btc\\_log        & -0.0004 &     0.034 & -0.012 &   0.991 &   -0.066 &    0.066 \\\\\n L1.hs\\_rate\\_log    &  0.0893 &     0.082 &  1.09  &   0.276 &   -0.071 &    0.25  \\\\\n L1.ggl\\_trends\\_log &  0.0187 &     0.022 &  0.863 &   0.388 &   -0.024 &    0.061 \\\\\n L2.btc\\_log        &  0.027  &     0.034 &  0.8   &   0.424 &   -0.039 &    0.093 \\\\\n L2.hs\\_rate\\_log    & -0.0065 &     0.085 & -0.077 &   0.939 &   -0.173 &    0.16  \\\\\n L2.ggl\\_trends\\_log &  0.0345 &     0.022 &  1.592 &   0.111 &   -0.008 &    0.077 \\\\\n L3.btc\\_log        &  0.027  &     0.034 &  0.796 &   0.426 &   -0.039 &    0.093 \\\\\n L3.hs\\_rate\\_log    & -0.0781 &     0.085 & -0.923 &   0.356 &   -0.244 &    0.088 \\\\\n L3.ggl\\_trends\\_log &  0.0156 &     0.022 &  0.715 &   0.475 &   -0.027 &    0.058 \\\\\n L4.btc\\_log        &  0.0472 &     0.034 &  1.39  &   0.165 &   -0.019 &    0.114 \\\\\n L4.hs\\_rate\\_log    &  0.1085 &     0.081 &  1.336 &   0.182 &   -0.051 &    0.268 \\\\\n L4.ggl\\_trends\\_log &  0.0261 &     0.022 &  1.193 &   0.233 &   -0.017 &    0.069 \\\\\n\\hline\n\\end{tabular}\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_df_select_VECM_coefficients.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_df_select_VECM_coefficients.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "mse_select:\t\t 628.8598662521392\nausreisser_select:\t 29\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: obtain mse, ausreisser, predictions, lo-& up confint for df_select with lag order = 4\n",
    "df_select_vecm_pred_result = vecm_rolling_forecast(df[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],lag_order=4,coint_rank=2,det='nc')\n",
    "\n",
    "# printout results\n",
    "print('mse_select:\\t\\t', df_select_vecm_pred_result[0])\n",
    "print('ausreisser_select:\\t', df_select_vecm_pred_result[1])"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# rolling forecast: create series and plot them for df_vecm_pred_result\n",
    "fig_11 = plot_var_pred_result(df[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_train[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_test[['btc','hs_rate','ggl_trends']],\n",
    "                             df_select_vecm_pred_result)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_11\n",
    "fig_11.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_11.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "## VECM: df_train_log (12 Variables) ##"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Johansen cointegration test using trace test statistic with 5% significance level\n=====================================\nr_0 r_1 test statistic critical value\n-------------------------------------\n  0  12          441.3          311.1\n  1  12          340.1          263.3\n  2  12          272.8          219.4\n  3  12          209.1          179.5\n  4  12          158.2          143.7\n  5  12          117.5          111.8\n  6  12          79.60          83.94\n-------------------------------------\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# determine cointegration rank of df_train_log with trace statistic\n",
    "print_select_coint_rank(df_train_log,'trace',10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_7_cointrank_trace.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_7_cointrank_trace.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 37,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      "Johansen cointegration test using maximum eigenvalue test statistic with 5% significance level\n=====================================\nr_0 r_1 test statistic critical value\n-------------------------------------\n  0   1          101.2          73.09\n  1   2          67.37          67.08\n  2   3          63.66          61.04\n  3   4          50.86          54.96\n-------------------------------------\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# determine cointegration rank of df_train_log with maxeig statistic\n",
    "print_select_coint_rank(df_train_log,'maxeig',10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_8_cointrank_maxeig.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_8_cointrank_maxeig.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 38,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "text": [
      " Variable  \t\ttest-statistic\tCV(95%)\t\tSignif\n\nbtc_log \t 441.34    \t 311.1288 \t True\ntot_btc_log \t 340.14    \t 263.2603 \t True\nhs_rate_log \t 272.77    \t 219.4051 \t True\neth_log \t 209.11    \t 179.5199 \t True\nggl_trends_log \t 158.24    \t 143.6691 \t True\nwiki_views_log \t 117.47    \t 111.7797 \t True\nusd_eur_log \t 79.6      \t 83.9383  \t False\noil_wti_log \t 47.01     \t 60.0627  \t False\ngold_log \t 29.19     \t 40.1749  \t False\nsp500_log \t 15.96     \t 24.2761  \t False\nsse_log \t 6.11      \t 12.3212  \t False\nffd_rate_log \t 0.0       \t 4.1296   \t False\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# print out johansen cointegration result for df_train_log\n",
    "print_cointegration_test_of(df_train_log,10,0.05)\n",
    "# -> Copy summary output and save as .txt"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_9_johansen_cointrank_trace.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_9_johansen_cointrank_trace.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 39,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\joche\\Anaconda3\\lib\\site-packages\\statsmodels\\tsa\\base\\tsa_model.py:583: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.\n  ' ignored when e.g. forecasting.', ValueWarning)\n"
     ],
     "output_type": "stream"
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "<class 'statsmodels.iolib.summary.Summary'>\n\"\"\"\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation btc_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0237      0.037      0.633      0.527      -0.050       0.097\nL1.tot_btc_log      -10.4730      8.627     -1.214      0.225     -27.382       6.436\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.1341      0.087      1.534      0.125      -0.037       0.306\nL1.eth_log           -0.0114      0.022     -0.525      0.600      -0.054       0.031\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0143      0.023      0.634      0.526      -0.030       0.059\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0087      0.011     -0.777      0.437      -0.031       0.013\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.3145      0.329     -0.956      0.339      -0.959       0.330\nL1.oil_wti_log       -0.0624      0.072     -0.870      0.384      -0.203       0.078\nL1.gold_log          -0.0400      0.223     -0.180      0.857      -0.476       0.396\nL1.sp500_log          0.3312      0.202      1.637      0.102      -0.065       0.728\nL1.sse_log           -0.1184      0.128     -0.926      0.354      -0.369       0.132\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0028      0.024     -0.119      0.906      -0.050       0.044\nL2.btc_log            0.0118      0.038      0.311      0.755      -0.062       0.086\nL2.tot_btc_log       -2.5155      8.680     -0.290      0.772     -19.529      14.498\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0121      0.091     -0.133      0.894      -0.191       0.166\nL2.eth_log            0.0273      0.022      1.253      0.210      -0.015       0.070\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0361      0.023      1.598      0.110      -0.008       0.080\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0045      0.011     -0.426      0.670      -0.025       0.016\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.4436      0.337      1.317      0.188      -0.216       1.104\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0350      0.072     -0.488      0.626      -0.175       0.106\nL2.gold_log          -0.1852      0.221     -0.839      0.402      -0.618       0.248\nL2.sp500_log          0.1661      0.209      0.795      0.427      -0.244       0.576\nL2.sse_log           -0.0034      0.127     -0.027      0.978      -0.253       0.246\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0025      0.026     -0.097      0.923      -0.053       0.048\nL3.btc_log            0.0541      0.038      1.424      0.155      -0.020       0.129\nL3.tot_btc_log        9.2641      8.637      1.073      0.283      -7.663      26.191\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.1203      0.091     -1.322      0.186      -0.299       0.058\nL3.eth_log           -0.0206      0.021     -0.961      0.336      -0.063       0.021\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0197      0.023      0.865      0.387      -0.025       0.064\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0152      0.010     -1.523      0.128      -0.035       0.004\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.3253      0.337     -0.965      0.334      -0.986       0.335\nL3.oil_wti_log        0.0648      0.072      0.901      0.368      -0.076       0.206\nL3.gold_log           0.3323      0.221      1.501      0.133      -0.102       0.766\nL3.sp500_log         -0.0722      0.208     -0.347      0.728      -0.480       0.335\nL3.sse_log           -0.0762      0.125     -0.607      0.544      -0.322       0.170\nL3.ffd_rate_log       0.0047      0.025      0.186      0.852      -0.045       0.055\nL4.btc_log            0.0495      0.038      1.307      0.191      -0.025       0.124\nL4.tot_btc_log       -5.8107      8.545     -0.680      0.497     -22.559      10.938\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.1462      0.087      1.676      0.094      -0.025       0.317\nL4.eth_log            0.0002      0.019      0.013      0.990      -0.036       0.037\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.0283      0.023      1.232      0.218      -0.017       0.073\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0125      0.009      1.337      0.181      -0.006       0.031\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.2912      0.335     -0.868      0.385      -0.949       0.366\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0608      0.072      0.841      0.400      -0.081       0.202\nL4.gold_log          -0.2040      0.215     -0.950      0.342      -0.625       0.217\nL4.sp500_log          0.0316      0.203      0.156      0.876      -0.366       0.429\nL4.sse_log            0.1018      0.118      0.860      0.390      -0.130       0.334\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0024      0.023     -0.105      0.916      -0.048       0.043\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation tot_btc_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0002      0.000      1.129      0.259      -0.000       0.000\nL1.tot_btc_log       -0.2062      0.036     -5.800      0.000      -0.276      -0.137\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0003      0.000      0.832      0.405      -0.000       0.001\nL1.eth_log        -7.154e-05   8.98e-05     -0.797      0.425      -0.000       0.000\nL1.ggl_trends_log    -0.0002   9.32e-05     -1.751      0.080      -0.000    1.95e-05\nL1.wiki_views_log -1.038e-05    4.6e-05     -0.226      0.821      -0.000    7.97e-05\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.0024      0.001     -1.807      0.071      -0.005       0.000\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0001      0.000      0.400      0.689      -0.000       0.001\nL1.gold_log           0.0015      0.001      1.676      0.094      -0.000       0.003\nL1.sp500_log          0.0010      0.001      1.183      0.237      -0.001       0.003\nL1.sse_log            0.0008      0.001      1.517      0.129      -0.000       0.002\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0005   9.82e-05     -4.690      0.000      -0.001      -0.000\nL2.btc_log            0.0001      0.000      0.719      0.472      -0.000       0.000\nL2.tot_btc_log       -0.1546      0.036     -4.323      0.000      -0.225      -0.085\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.0003      0.000      0.882      0.378      -0.000       0.001\nL2.eth_log            0.0001   8.98e-05      1.179      0.238   -7.01e-05       0.000\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0002   9.32e-05     -2.255      0.024      -0.000   -2.75e-05\nL2.wiki_views_log -2.544e-05   4.38e-05     -0.580      0.562      -0.000    6.05e-05\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.0020      0.001      1.476      0.140      -0.001       0.005\nL2.oil_wti_log     4.371e-06      0.000      0.015      0.988      -0.001       0.001\nL2.gold_log           0.0011      0.001      1.162      0.245      -0.001       0.003\nL2.sp500_log         -0.0001      0.001     -0.156      0.876      -0.002       0.002\nL2.sse_log        -3.762e-05      0.001     -0.072      0.943      -0.001       0.001\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0002      0.000     -1.433      0.152      -0.000    5.59e-05\nL3.btc_log            0.0001      0.000      0.784      0.433      -0.000       0.000\nL3.tot_btc_log       -0.1388      0.036     -3.900      0.000      -0.209      -0.069\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.0004      0.000      1.182      0.237      -0.000       0.001\nL3.eth_log         1.271e-05   8.85e-05      0.144      0.886      -0.000       0.000\nL3.ggl_trends_log -8.813e-06   9.38e-05     -0.094      0.925      -0.000       0.000\nL3.wiki_views_log  1.291e-05   4.12e-05      0.314      0.754   -6.78e-05    9.36e-05\nL3.usd_eur_log        0.0004      0.001      0.313      0.754      -0.002       0.003\nL3.oil_wti_log        0.0008      0.000      2.763      0.006       0.000       0.001\nL3.gold_log           0.0009      0.001      0.965      0.334      -0.001       0.003\nL3.sp500_log          0.0006      0.001      0.691      0.489      -0.001       0.002\nL3.sse_log            0.0006      0.001      1.231      0.218      -0.000       0.002\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0003      0.000     -2.430      0.015      -0.000   -4.93e-05\nL4.btc_log        -6.857e-05      0.000     -0.439      0.660      -0.000       0.000\nL4.tot_btc_log        0.0082      0.035      0.233      0.816      -0.061       0.077\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0001      0.000      0.390      0.697      -0.001       0.001\nL4.eth_log            0.0002   7.71e-05      2.046      0.041    6.61e-06       0.000\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0001   9.47e-05     -1.273      0.203      -0.000    6.51e-05\nL4.wiki_views_log  8.224e-05   3.85e-05      2.134      0.033    6.72e-06       0.000\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.0022      0.001     -1.614      0.107      -0.005       0.000\nL4.oil_wti_log      5.79e-05      0.000      0.194      0.846      -0.001       0.001\nL4.gold_log           0.0011      0.001      1.260      0.208      -0.001       0.003\nL4.sp500_log          0.0010      0.001      1.186      0.236      -0.001       0.003\nL4.sse_log            0.0010      0.000      1.986      0.047    1.28e-05       0.002\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0002   9.51e-05     -1.813      0.070      -0.000    1.39e-05\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation hs_rate_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0226      0.015      1.533      0.125      -0.006       0.051\nL1.tot_btc_log      -15.8456      3.390     -4.675      0.000     -22.489      -9.202\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.3115      0.034      9.068      0.000       0.244       0.379\nL1.eth_log           -0.0181      0.009     -2.110      0.035      -0.035      -0.001\nL1.ggl_trends_log    -0.0113      0.009     -1.266      0.205      -0.029       0.006\nL1.wiki_views_log     0.0005      0.004      0.110      0.913      -0.008       0.009\nL1.usd_eur_log        0.1014      0.129      0.785      0.432      -0.152       0.355\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0502      0.028      1.782      0.075      -0.005       0.105\nL1.gold_log           0.0773      0.087      0.884      0.377      -0.094       0.249\nL1.sp500_log         -0.0102      0.079     -0.129      0.897      -0.166       0.146\nL1.sse_log           -0.0241      0.050     -0.480      0.632      -0.123       0.074\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0078      0.009     -0.838      0.402      -0.026       0.011\nL2.btc_log            0.0386      0.015      2.603      0.009       0.010       0.068\nL2.tot_btc_log       -7.0257      3.411     -2.060      0.039     -13.710      -0.341\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.0685      0.036      1.914      0.056      -0.002       0.139\nL2.eth_log           -0.0084      0.009     -0.977      0.329      -0.025       0.008\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0135      0.009     -1.520      0.128      -0.031       0.004\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0015      0.004     -0.366      0.715      -0.010       0.007\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.2995      0.132      2.264      0.024       0.040       0.559\nL2.oil_wti_log        0.0112      0.028      0.398      0.691      -0.044       0.066\nL2.gold_log          -0.0461      0.087     -0.531      0.595      -0.216       0.124\nL2.sp500_log          0.0927      0.082      1.129      0.259      -0.068       0.254\nL2.sse_log           -0.0440      0.050     -0.879      0.379      -0.142       0.054\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0048      0.010     -0.471      0.637      -0.025       0.015\nL3.btc_log            0.0155      0.015      1.035      0.301      -0.014       0.045\nL3.tot_btc_log       -3.4647      3.393     -1.021      0.307     -10.116       3.186\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0383      0.036     -1.070      0.285      -0.108       0.032\nL3.eth_log           -0.0055      0.008     -0.655      0.512      -0.022       0.011\nL3.ggl_trends_log    -0.0217      0.009     -2.421      0.015      -0.039      -0.004\nL3.wiki_views_log     0.0042      0.004      1.067      0.286      -0.004       0.012\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.0337      0.132     -0.254      0.799      -0.293       0.226\nL3.oil_wti_log        0.0387      0.028      1.370      0.171      -0.017       0.094\nL3.gold_log           0.1350      0.087      1.553      0.120      -0.035       0.305\nL3.sp500_log          0.1118      0.082      1.369      0.171      -0.048       0.272\nL3.sse_log           -0.0186      0.049     -0.377      0.706      -0.115       0.078\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0075      0.010     -0.750      0.453      -0.027       0.012\nL4.btc_log           -0.0123      0.015     -0.825      0.410      -0.041       0.017\nL4.tot_btc_log       -1.7076      3.357     -0.509      0.611      -8.288       4.873\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.1583      0.034     -4.618      0.000      -0.225      -0.091\nL4.eth_log            0.0100      0.007      1.359      0.174      -0.004       0.024\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0051      0.009     -0.563      0.573      -0.023       0.013\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0007      0.004      0.192      0.848      -0.006       0.008\nL4.usd_eur_log        0.1455      0.132      1.104      0.270      -0.113       0.404\nL4.oil_wti_log       -0.0600      0.028     -2.113      0.035      -0.116      -0.004\nL4.gold_log           0.2537      0.084      3.007      0.003       0.088       0.419\nL4.sp500_log          0.0012      0.080      0.015      0.988      -0.155       0.157\nL4.sse_log            0.0408      0.047      0.876      0.381      -0.050       0.132\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0079      0.009     -0.875      0.381      -0.026       0.010\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation eth_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.1434      0.063     -2.264      0.024      -0.268      -0.019\nL1.tot_btc_log      -13.2771     14.587     -0.910      0.363     -41.868      15.314\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0984      0.148      0.665      0.506      -0.191       0.388\nL1.eth_log            0.0588      0.037      1.596      0.111      -0.013       0.131\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0131      0.038      0.342      0.732      -0.062       0.088\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0219      0.019     -1.163      0.245      -0.059       0.015\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.6174      0.556     -1.111      0.267      -1.707       0.472\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0302      0.121      0.249      0.803      -0.208       0.268\nL1.gold_log           0.0006      0.376      0.002      0.999      -0.737       0.738\nL1.sp500_log          0.0951      0.342      0.278      0.781      -0.575       0.766\nL1.sse_log           -0.0950      0.216     -0.440      0.660      -0.519       0.329\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0318      0.040     -0.789      0.430      -0.111       0.047\nL2.btc_log            0.0555      0.064      0.869      0.385      -0.070       0.181\nL2.tot_btc_log        1.7373     14.678      0.118      0.906     -27.031      30.506\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.0597      0.154      0.387      0.698      -0.242       0.361\nL2.eth_log           -0.0466      0.037     -1.266      0.206      -0.119       0.026\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0349      0.038      0.913      0.362      -0.040       0.110\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0343      0.018     -1.908      0.056      -0.070       0.001\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.2219      0.569      0.390      0.697      -0.894       1.338\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0712      0.121     -0.587      0.557      -0.309       0.166\nL2.gold_log          -0.0056      0.373     -0.015      0.988      -0.737       0.726\nL2.sp500_log          0.4204      0.353      1.190      0.234      -0.272       1.113\nL2.sse_log            0.1851      0.215      0.859      0.390      -0.237       0.607\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0350      0.043     -0.805      0.421      -0.120       0.050\nL3.btc_log            0.1150      0.064      1.789      0.074      -0.011       0.241\nL3.tot_btc_log      -11.7640     14.604     -0.806      0.420     -40.387      16.858\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.1018      0.154      0.662      0.508      -0.200       0.403\nL3.eth_log            0.0273      0.036      0.752      0.452      -0.044       0.098\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0497      0.039      1.292      0.196      -0.026       0.125\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0323      0.017     -1.914      0.056      -0.065       0.001\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.4967      0.570     -0.872      0.383      -1.614       0.620\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0303      0.122     -0.249      0.803      -0.269       0.208\nL3.gold_log           0.3025      0.374      0.808      0.419      -0.431       1.036\nL3.sp500_log         -0.1821      0.351     -0.518      0.604      -0.871       0.507\nL3.sse_log           -0.1252      0.212     -0.590      0.555      -0.541       0.291\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0212      0.043     -0.493      0.622      -0.105       0.063\nL4.btc_log            0.0535      0.064      0.835      0.404      -0.072       0.179\nL4.tot_btc_log        3.6770     14.449      0.254      0.799     -24.643      31.997\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0391      0.148      0.265      0.791      -0.250       0.328\nL4.eth_log           -0.0248      0.032     -0.785      0.432      -0.087       0.037\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0269      0.039     -0.693      0.489      -0.103       0.049\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0128      0.016      0.811      0.418      -0.018       0.044\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.0653      0.567     -0.115      0.908      -1.177       1.047\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0359      0.122      0.294      0.769      -0.204       0.275\nL4.gold_log          -0.0872      0.363     -0.240      0.810      -0.799       0.625\nL4.sp500_log         -0.0401      0.343     -0.117      0.907      -0.712       0.632\nL4.sse_log            0.2091      0.200      1.044      0.296      -0.183       0.602\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0249      0.039     -0.639      0.523      -0.101       0.052\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ggl_trends_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0037      0.057      0.065      0.948      -0.109       0.116\nL1.tot_btc_log       -4.4117     13.234     -0.333      0.739     -30.350      21.526\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.1123      0.134      0.837      0.402      -0.151       0.375\nL1.eth_log            0.0015      0.033      0.044      0.965      -0.064       0.067\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.1066      0.035      3.071      0.002       0.039       0.175\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0372      0.017     -2.173      0.030      -0.071      -0.004\nL1.usd_eur_log        0.4057      0.504      0.804      0.421      -0.583       1.394\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.1157      0.110      1.051      0.293      -0.100       0.331\nL1.gold_log          -0.0104      0.341     -0.030      0.976      -0.680       0.659\nL1.sp500_log         -0.3982      0.310     -1.283      0.199      -1.007       0.210\nL1.sse_log           -0.0923      0.196     -0.471      0.638      -0.477       0.292\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.1014      0.037     -2.775      0.006      -0.173      -0.030\nL2.btc_log            0.0644      0.058      1.111      0.267      -0.049       0.178\nL2.tot_btc_log       -8.1372     13.316     -0.611      0.541     -34.236      17.962\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.2128      0.140      1.523      0.128      -0.061       0.487\nL2.eth_log            0.0441      0.033      1.320      0.187      -0.021       0.110\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.1060      0.035      3.056      0.002       0.038       0.174\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0437      0.016     -2.680      0.007      -0.076      -0.012\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.1765      0.517      0.342      0.733      -0.836       1.189\nL2.oil_wti_log        0.0223      0.110      0.203      0.839      -0.193       0.238\nL2.gold_log          -0.1990      0.339     -0.587      0.557      -0.863       0.465\nL2.sp500_log          0.1323      0.321      0.413      0.680      -0.496       0.761\nL2.sse_log           -0.3012      0.195     -1.542      0.123      -0.684       0.082\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0404      0.039     -1.025      0.306      -0.118       0.037\nL3.btc_log            0.0482      0.058      0.826      0.409      -0.066       0.162\nL3.tot_btc_log       -3.2514     13.249     -0.245      0.806     -29.218      22.715\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0394      0.140     -0.282      0.778      -0.313       0.234\nL3.eth_log            0.0185      0.033      0.562      0.574      -0.046       0.083\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.1014      0.035      2.903      0.004       0.033       0.170\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0028      0.015     -0.183      0.855      -0.033       0.027\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.9923      0.517     -1.919      0.055      -2.006       0.021\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0665      0.110     -0.603      0.547      -0.283       0.150\nL3.gold_log           0.4503      0.340      1.326      0.185      -0.215       1.116\nL3.sp500_log          0.3488      0.319      1.094      0.274      -0.276       0.974\nL3.sse_log           -0.1723      0.192     -0.895      0.371      -0.549       0.205\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0678      0.039     -1.739      0.082      -0.144       0.009\nL4.btc_log            0.0569      0.058      0.979      0.327      -0.057       0.171\nL4.tot_btc_log        6.9672     13.108      0.532      0.595     -18.725      32.659\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0679      0.134      0.507      0.612      -0.194       0.330\nL4.eth_log           -0.0074      0.029     -0.257      0.797      -0.064       0.049\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.1104      0.035      3.131      0.002       0.041       0.179\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0015      0.014      0.106      0.916      -0.027       0.030\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.2892      0.515     -0.562      0.574      -1.298       0.719\nL4.oil_wti_log       -0.1321      0.111     -1.191      0.234      -0.349       0.085\nL4.gold_log          -0.4858      0.330     -1.474      0.140      -1.132       0.160\nL4.sp500_log          0.0194      0.311      0.062      0.950      -0.590       0.629\nL4.sse_log            0.1854      0.182      1.021      0.307      -0.171       0.542\nL4.ffd_rate_log       0.0517      0.035      1.462      0.144      -0.018       0.121\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation wiki_views_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.2421      0.133      1.815      0.070      -0.019       0.504\nL1.tot_btc_log      -29.1321     30.722     -0.948      0.343     -89.347      31.083\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.4296      0.311      1.380      0.168      -0.181       1.040\nL1.eth_log           -0.0556      0.078     -0.717      0.473      -0.208       0.096\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0432      0.081      0.537      0.591      -0.115       0.201\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.1914      0.040     -4.821      0.000      -0.269      -0.114\nL1.usd_eur_log        0.9703      1.171      0.829      0.407      -1.325       3.265\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0967      0.255      0.378      0.705      -0.404       0.597\nL1.gold_log           0.2876      0.793      0.363      0.717      -1.266       1.841\nL1.sp500_log          0.1504      0.721      0.209      0.835      -1.262       1.563\nL1.sse_log           -0.5847      0.455     -1.284      0.199      -1.477       0.308\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.2464      0.085     -2.905      0.004      -0.413      -0.080\nL2.btc_log            0.2642      0.135      1.964      0.050       0.001       0.528\nL2.tot_btc_log       -7.5010     30.913     -0.243      0.808     -68.089      53.087\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.1837      0.324     -0.567      0.571      -0.819       0.452\nL2.eth_log           -0.0296      0.078     -0.381      0.703      -0.182       0.122\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.1725      0.081      2.141      0.032       0.015       0.330\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.1658      0.038     -4.377      0.000      -0.240      -0.092\nL2.usd_eur_log       -0.9965      1.199     -0.831      0.406      -3.347       1.354\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.7716      0.255     -3.022      0.003      -1.272      -0.271\nL2.gold_log           1.6497      0.786      2.098      0.036       0.108       3.191\nL2.sp500_log          0.9856      0.744      1.324      0.185      -0.473       2.444\nL2.sse_log            0.7350      0.454      1.620      0.105      -0.154       1.624\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0987      0.092     -1.078      0.281      -0.278       0.081\nL3.btc_log            0.1267      0.135      0.936      0.349      -0.139       0.392\nL3.tot_btc_log      -48.0194     30.756     -1.561      0.118    -108.301      12.262\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.0539      0.324      0.166      0.868      -0.581       0.689\nL3.eth_log           -0.0215      0.076     -0.281      0.779      -0.171       0.128\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.1331      0.081      1.641      0.101      -0.026       0.292\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.1661      0.036     -4.669      0.000      -0.236      -0.096\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.5040      1.200     -0.420      0.675      -2.856       1.848\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.2948      0.256     -1.150      0.250      -0.797       0.207\nL3.gold_log           0.9611      0.788      1.219      0.223      -0.584       2.506\nL3.sp500_log          1.3570      0.740      1.833      0.067      -0.094       2.808\nL3.sse_log           -0.0873      0.447     -0.195      0.845      -0.963       0.788\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.2161      0.091     -2.387      0.017      -0.394      -0.039\nL4.btc_log            0.0799      0.135      0.593      0.553      -0.184       0.344\nL4.tot_btc_log      -22.7361     30.431     -0.747      0.455     -82.380      36.908\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.1787      0.311      0.575      0.565      -0.430       0.788\nL4.eth_log            0.0469      0.067      0.703      0.482      -0.084       0.177\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.1852      0.082      2.263      0.024       0.025       0.346\nL4.wiki_views_log    -0.1044      0.033     -3.136      0.002      -0.170      -0.039\nL4.usd_eur_log        1.0369      1.195      0.868      0.385      -1.305       3.378\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.2945      0.257      1.144      0.253      -0.210       0.799\nL4.gold_log          -0.4468      0.765     -0.584      0.559      -1.946       1.053\nL4.sp500_log          0.2544      0.722      0.353      0.724      -1.160       1.669\nL4.sse_log           -0.0022      0.422     -0.005      0.996      -0.829       0.825\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0566      0.082     -0.689      0.491      -0.218       0.104\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation usd_eur_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.0064      0.004     -1.622      0.105      -0.014       0.001\nL1.tot_btc_log        1.4720      0.913      1.612      0.107      -0.318       3.262\nL1.hs_rate_log       -0.0006      0.009     -0.062      0.951      -0.019       0.018\nL1.eth_log            0.0013      0.002      0.584      0.559      -0.003       0.006\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0025      0.002      1.042      0.298      -0.002       0.007\nL1.wiki_views_log     0.0009      0.001      0.803      0.422      -0.001       0.003\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.0177      0.035     -0.509      0.610      -0.086       0.050\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0161      0.008      2.119      0.034       0.001       0.031\nL1.gold_log           0.0016      0.024      0.068      0.946      -0.045       0.048\nL1.sp500_log         -0.0216      0.021     -1.009      0.313      -0.064       0.020\nL1.sse_log            0.0151      0.014      1.118      0.264      -0.011       0.042\nL1.ffd_rate_log       0.0007      0.003      0.269      0.788      -0.004       0.006\nL2.btc_log           -0.0043      0.004     -1.072      0.284      -0.012       0.004\nL2.tot_btc_log        0.0600      0.919      0.065      0.948      -1.741       1.861\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0070      0.010     -0.724      0.469      -0.026       0.012\nL2.eth_log            0.0034      0.002      1.469      0.142      -0.001       0.008\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0023      0.002      0.961      0.337      -0.002       0.007\nL2.wiki_views_log     0.0014      0.001      1.222      0.222      -0.001       0.004\nL2.usd_eur_log       -0.0157      0.036     -0.441      0.659      -0.086       0.054\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0016      0.008     -0.216      0.829      -0.017       0.013\nL2.gold_log           0.0115      0.023      0.494      0.621      -0.034       0.057\nL2.sp500_log         -0.0114      0.022     -0.515      0.607      -0.055       0.032\nL2.sse_log            0.0024      0.013      0.177      0.860      -0.024       0.029\nL2.ffd_rate_log       0.0055      0.003      2.003      0.045       0.000       0.011\nL3.btc_log            0.0046      0.004      1.141      0.254      -0.003       0.012\nL3.tot_btc_log        1.0168      0.914      1.112      0.266      -0.775       2.808\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0002      0.010     -0.020      0.984      -0.019       0.019\nL3.eth_log           -0.0039      0.002     -1.725      0.085      -0.008       0.001\nL3.ggl_trends_log    -0.0055      0.002     -2.300      0.021      -0.010      -0.001\nL3.wiki_views_log     0.0002      0.001      0.229      0.819      -0.002       0.002\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.0474      0.036     -1.329      0.184      -0.117       0.023\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0096      0.008     -1.254      0.210      -0.024       0.005\nL3.gold_log           0.0270      0.023      1.151      0.250      -0.019       0.073\nL3.sp500_log          0.0096      0.022      0.435      0.664      -0.034       0.053\nL3.sse_log            0.0083      0.013      0.623      0.533      -0.018       0.034\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0028      0.003     -1.059      0.290      -0.008       0.002\nL4.btc_log         1.228e-05      0.004      0.003      0.998      -0.008       0.008\nL4.tot_btc_log        0.5592      0.904      0.618      0.536      -1.214       2.332\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.0141      0.009     -1.524      0.127      -0.032       0.004\nL4.eth_log            0.0006      0.002      0.305      0.760      -0.003       0.004\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0050      0.002     -2.072      0.038      -0.010      -0.000\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0013      0.001      1.292      0.196      -0.001       0.003\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.0451      0.036     -1.269      0.204      -0.115       0.025\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0110      0.008      1.438      0.151      -0.004       0.026\nL4.gold_log          -0.0185      0.023     -0.813      0.416      -0.063       0.026\nL4.sp500_log         -0.0231      0.021     -1.079      0.281      -0.065       0.019\nL4.sse_log           -0.0304      0.013     -2.427      0.015      -0.055      -0.006\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0062      0.002     -2.522      0.012      -0.011      -0.001\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation oil_wti_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0195      0.018      1.058      0.290      -0.017       0.056\nL1.tot_btc_log        6.8411      4.242      1.613      0.107      -1.474      15.156\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0166      0.043      0.386      0.700      -0.068       0.101\nL1.eth_log            0.0033      0.011      0.306      0.759      -0.018       0.024\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0083      0.011      0.744      0.457      -0.014       0.030\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0084      0.005     -1.531      0.126      -0.019       0.002\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.1645      0.162     -1.017      0.309      -0.481       0.152\nL1.oil_wti_log       -0.0348      0.035     -0.987      0.324      -0.104       0.034\nL1.gold_log          -0.0123      0.109     -0.112      0.911      -0.227       0.202\nL1.sp500_log          0.1761      0.099      1.770      0.077      -0.019       0.371\nL1.sse_log           -0.0127      0.063     -0.202      0.840      -0.136       0.111\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0090      0.012     -0.769      0.442      -0.032       0.014\nL2.btc_log            0.0129      0.019      0.694      0.488      -0.024       0.049\nL2.tot_btc_log       -4.0276      4.269     -0.944      0.345     -12.394       4.339\nL2.hs_rate_log        0.0243      0.045      0.542      0.588      -0.064       0.112\nL2.eth_log            0.0154      0.011      1.438      0.150      -0.006       0.036\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0183      0.011      1.648      0.099      -0.003       0.040\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0040      0.005     -0.767      0.443      -0.014       0.006\nL2.usd_eur_log       -0.1886      0.166     -1.139      0.255      -0.513       0.136\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0545      0.035     -1.544      0.122      -0.124       0.015\nL2.gold_log           0.1190      0.109      1.096      0.273      -0.094       0.332\nL2.sp500_log          0.0193      0.103      0.188      0.851      -0.182       0.221\nL2.sse_log           -0.0242      0.063     -0.386      0.700      -0.147       0.099\nL2.ffd_rate_log       0.0078      0.013      0.614      0.539      -0.017       0.033\nL3.btc_log            0.0109      0.019      0.586      0.558      -0.026       0.048\nL3.tot_btc_log        0.8348      4.247      0.197      0.844      -7.489       9.159\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.0198      0.045      0.443      0.658      -0.068       0.108\nL3.eth_log           -0.0286      0.011     -2.705      0.007      -0.049      -0.008\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0236      0.011      2.106      0.035       0.002       0.046\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0055      0.005     -1.113      0.266      -0.015       0.004\nL3.usd_eur_log       -0.1512      0.166     -0.913      0.361      -0.476       0.174\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0414      0.035     -1.171      0.242      -0.111       0.028\nL3.gold_log          -0.1034      0.109     -0.950      0.342      -0.317       0.110\nL3.sp500_log          0.1406      0.102      1.376      0.169      -0.060       0.341\nL3.sse_log            0.0567      0.062      0.918      0.358      -0.064       0.178\nL3.ffd_rate_log       0.0086      0.013      0.687      0.492      -0.016       0.033\nL4.btc_log           -0.0111      0.019     -0.598      0.550      -0.048       0.025\nL4.tot_btc_log        2.1472      4.202      0.511      0.609      -6.089      10.383\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0053      0.043      0.124      0.902      -0.079       0.089\nL4.eth_log            0.0186      0.009      2.026      0.043       0.001       0.037\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0184      0.011     -1.624      0.104      -0.041       0.004\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0031      0.005      0.667      0.505      -0.006       0.012\nL4.usd_eur_log        0.2719      0.165      1.648      0.099      -0.051       0.595\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0583      0.036      1.640      0.101      -0.011       0.128\nL4.gold_log          -0.0720      0.106     -0.681      0.496      -0.279       0.135\nL4.sp500_log         -0.0686      0.100     -0.688      0.491      -0.264       0.127\nL4.sse_log           -0.0606      0.058     -1.041      0.298      -0.175       0.054\nL4.ffd_rate_log       0.0084      0.011      0.737      0.461      -0.014       0.031\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation gold_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.0093      0.006     -1.538      0.124      -0.021       0.003\nL1.tot_btc_log        1.9018      1.388      1.370      0.171      -0.819       4.623\nL1.hs_rate_log       -0.0043      0.014     -0.303      0.762      -0.032       0.023\nL1.eth_log            0.0026      0.004      0.754      0.451      -0.004       0.010\nL1.ggl_trends_log    -0.0024      0.004     -0.650      0.515      -0.010       0.005\nL1.wiki_views_log     0.0008      0.002      0.455      0.649      -0.003       0.004\nL1.usd_eur_log        0.3223      0.053      6.091      0.000       0.219       0.426\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0236      0.012      2.047      0.041       0.001       0.046\nL1.gold_log          -0.0649      0.036     -1.810      0.070      -0.135       0.005\nL1.sp500_log         -0.0778      0.033     -2.389      0.017      -0.142      -0.014\nL1.sse_log            0.0405      0.021      1.970      0.049       0.000       0.081\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0040      0.004     -1.038      0.299      -0.011       0.004\nL2.btc_log            0.0012      0.006      0.191      0.848      -0.011       0.013\nL2.tot_btc_log       -0.0429      1.397     -0.031      0.976      -2.781       2.695\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0111      0.015     -0.757      0.449      -0.040       0.018\nL2.eth_log            0.0002      0.004      0.052      0.958      -0.007       0.007\nL2.ggl_trends_log     0.0028      0.004      0.767      0.443      -0.004       0.010\nL2.wiki_views_log     0.0016      0.002      0.929      0.353      -0.002       0.005\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.0577      0.054      1.065      0.287      -0.048       0.164\nL2.oil_wti_log        0.0002      0.012      0.015      0.988      -0.022       0.023\nL2.gold_log          -0.0842      0.036     -2.370      0.018      -0.154      -0.015\nL2.sp500_log          0.0087      0.034      0.258      0.796      -0.057       0.075\nL2.sse_log            0.0212      0.020      1.034      0.301      -0.019       0.061\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.0013      0.004     -0.326      0.744      -0.009       0.007\nL3.btc_log           -0.0145      0.006     -2.371      0.018      -0.026      -0.003\nL3.tot_btc_log        2.3767      1.390      1.710      0.087      -0.347       5.101\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.0024      0.015      0.167      0.868      -0.026       0.031\nL3.eth_log            0.0062      0.003      1.799      0.072      -0.001       0.013\nL3.ggl_trends_log    -0.0019      0.004     -0.514      0.607      -0.009       0.005\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0011      0.002     -0.704      0.482      -0.004       0.002\nL3.usd_eur_log        0.0090      0.054      0.166      0.868      -0.097       0.115\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0193      0.012     -1.664      0.096      -0.042       0.003\nL3.gold_log           0.0607      0.036      1.705      0.088      -0.009       0.131\nL3.sp500_log         -0.0088      0.033     -0.263      0.792      -0.074       0.057\nL3.sse_log            0.0040      0.020      0.200      0.841      -0.036       0.044\nL3.ffd_rate_log       0.0009      0.004      0.208      0.835      -0.007       0.009\nL4.btc_log           -0.0016      0.006     -0.262      0.793      -0.014       0.010\nL4.tot_btc_log        1.4457      1.375      1.051      0.293      -1.250       4.141\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.0184      0.014     -1.314      0.189      -0.046       0.009\nL4.eth_log           -0.0018      0.003     -0.589      0.556      -0.008       0.004\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.0051      0.004      1.366      0.172      -0.002       0.012\nL4.wiki_views_log    -0.0014      0.002     -0.903      0.366      -0.004       0.002\nL4.usd_eur_log       -0.0071      0.054     -0.131      0.896      -0.113       0.099\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0060      0.012      0.519      0.604      -0.017       0.029\nL4.gold_log          -0.0020      0.035     -0.058      0.954      -0.070       0.066\nL4.sp500_log          0.0310      0.033      0.951      0.341      -0.033       0.095\nL4.sse_log           -0.0009      0.019     -0.049      0.961      -0.038       0.036\nL4.ffd_rate_log      -0.0047      0.004     -1.262      0.207      -0.012       0.003\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation sp500_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0054      0.007      0.801      0.423      -0.008       0.018\nL1.tot_btc_log        1.1801      1.541      0.766      0.444      -1.841       4.201\nL1.hs_rate_log        0.0248      0.016      1.585      0.113      -0.006       0.055\nL1.eth_log            0.0038      0.004      0.982      0.326      -0.004       0.011\nL1.ggl_trends_log    -0.0027      0.004     -0.658      0.510      -0.011       0.005\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0018      0.002     -0.896      0.370      -0.006       0.002\nL1.usd_eur_log        0.1026      0.059      1.747      0.081      -0.013       0.218\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0006      0.013      0.049      0.961      -0.024       0.026\nL1.gold_log          -0.0827      0.040     -2.081      0.037      -0.161      -0.005\nL1.sp500_log          0.0473      0.036      1.307      0.191      -0.024       0.118\nL1.sse_log           -0.0335      0.023     -1.469      0.142      -0.078       0.011\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.0099      0.004     -2.331      0.020      -0.018      -0.002\nL2.btc_log           -0.0008      0.007     -0.121      0.904      -0.014       0.012\nL2.tot_btc_log        0.8756      1.551      0.565      0.572      -2.164       3.915\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0129      0.016     -0.791      0.429      -0.045       0.019\nL2.eth_log           -0.0022      0.004     -0.567      0.571      -0.010       0.005\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0030      0.004     -0.751      0.453      -0.011       0.005\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0039      0.002     -2.059      0.039      -0.008      -0.000\nL2.usd_eur_log        0.0326      0.060      0.541      0.588      -0.085       0.150\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0206      0.013     -1.610      0.107      -0.046       0.004\nL2.gold_log          -0.0054      0.039     -0.136      0.892      -0.083       0.072\nL2.sp500_log          0.0212      0.037      0.568      0.570      -0.052       0.094\nL2.sse_log           -0.0024      0.023     -0.108      0.914      -0.047       0.042\nL2.ffd_rate_log       0.0011      0.005      0.248      0.805      -0.008       0.010\nL3.btc_log            0.0168      0.007      2.475      0.013       0.003       0.030\nL3.tot_btc_log        1.4499      1.543      0.940      0.347      -1.574       4.474\nL3.hs_rate_log       -0.0133      0.016     -0.816      0.414      -0.045       0.019\nL3.eth_log           -0.0047      0.004     -1.234      0.217      -0.012       0.003\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0131      0.004      3.217      0.001       0.005       0.021\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0052      0.002     -2.930      0.003      -0.009      -0.002\nL3.usd_eur_log        0.0364      0.060      0.605      0.545      -0.082       0.154\nL3.oil_wti_log        0.0028      0.013      0.217      0.828      -0.022       0.028\nL3.gold_log          -0.0084      0.040     -0.213      0.831      -0.086       0.069\nL3.sp500_log          0.0082      0.037      0.221      0.825      -0.065       0.081\nL3.sse_log           -0.0293      0.022     -1.309      0.190      -0.073       0.015\nL3.ffd_rate_log       0.0024      0.005      0.537      0.591      -0.006       0.011\nL4.btc_log           -0.0077      0.007     -1.139      0.255      -0.021       0.006\nL4.tot_btc_log        0.4006      1.527      0.262      0.793      -2.591       3.393\nL4.hs_rate_log        0.0148      0.016      0.950      0.342      -0.016       0.045\nL4.eth_log            0.0053      0.003      1.595      0.111      -0.001       0.012\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0029      0.004     -0.706      0.480      -0.011       0.005\nL4.wiki_views_log    -0.0005      0.002     -0.280      0.780      -0.004       0.003\nL4.usd_eur_log        0.1578      0.060      2.632      0.008       0.040       0.275\nL4.oil_wti_log       -0.0162      0.013     -1.255      0.209      -0.042       0.009\nL4.gold_log           0.0417      0.038      1.088      0.277      -0.033       0.117\nL4.sp500_log          0.0696      0.036      1.924      0.054      -0.001       0.141\nL4.sse_log            0.0503      0.021      2.377      0.017       0.009       0.092\nL4.ffd_rate_log       0.0064      0.004      1.565      0.118      -0.002       0.015\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation sse_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log           -0.0006      0.010     -0.059      0.953      -0.020       0.019\nL1.tot_btc_log        1.7051      2.318      0.736      0.462      -2.837       6.248\nL1.hs_rate_log       -0.0249      0.023     -1.059      0.290      -0.071       0.021\nL1.eth_log            0.0054      0.006      0.922      0.357      -0.006       0.017\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0002      0.006      0.025      0.980      -0.012       0.012\nL1.wiki_views_log     0.0024      0.003      0.788      0.431      -0.004       0.008\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.0678      0.088     -0.768      0.443      -0.241       0.105\nL1.oil_wti_log        0.0123      0.019      0.638      0.523      -0.025       0.050\nL1.gold_log          -0.0293      0.060     -0.491      0.624      -0.147       0.088\nL1.sp500_log          0.5227      0.054      9.617      0.000       0.416       0.629\nL1.sse_log           -0.1017      0.034     -2.961      0.003      -0.169      -0.034\nL1.ffd_rate_log       0.0104      0.006      1.621      0.105      -0.002       0.023\nL2.btc_log            0.0232      0.010      2.284      0.022       0.003       0.043\nL2.tot_btc_log       -2.0074      2.332     -0.861      0.389      -6.578       2.563\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.0179      0.024     -0.733      0.464      -0.066       0.030\nL2.eth_log           -0.0103      0.006     -1.764      0.078      -0.022       0.001\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0062      0.006     -1.014      0.311      -0.018       0.006\nL2.wiki_views_log     0.0029      0.003      1.017      0.309      -0.003       0.009\nL2.usd_eur_log       -0.0493      0.090     -0.545      0.586      -0.227       0.128\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.0138      0.019     -0.714      0.475      -0.052       0.024\nL2.gold_log          -0.0692      0.059     -1.167      0.243      -0.185       0.047\nL2.sp500_log          0.1119      0.056      1.993      0.046       0.002       0.222\nL2.sse_log            0.0665      0.034      1.944      0.052      -0.001       0.134\nL2.ffd_rate_log       0.0149      0.007      2.157      0.031       0.001       0.028\nL3.btc_log            0.0302      0.010      2.953      0.003       0.010       0.050\nL3.tot_btc_log       -0.7877      2.320     -0.340      0.734      -5.335       3.760\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.0143      0.024      0.587      0.557      -0.034       0.062\nL3.eth_log           -0.0173      0.006     -3.001      0.003      -0.029      -0.006\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0020      0.006      0.324      0.746      -0.010       0.014\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0006      0.003     -0.226      0.821      -0.006       0.005\nL3.usd_eur_log        0.1832      0.091      2.024      0.043       0.006       0.361\nL3.oil_wti_log       -0.0019      0.019     -0.098      0.922      -0.040       0.036\nL3.gold_log          -0.1134      0.059     -1.908      0.056      -0.230       0.003\nL3.sp500_log          0.1283      0.056      2.297      0.022       0.019       0.238\nL3.sse_log           -0.0288      0.034     -0.854      0.393      -0.095       0.037\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0087      0.007     -1.271      0.204      -0.022       0.005\nL4.btc_log            0.0040      0.010      0.390      0.697      -0.016       0.024\nL4.tot_btc_log        0.2111      2.296      0.092      0.927      -4.288       4.711\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.0068      0.023     -0.291      0.771      -0.053       0.039\nL4.eth_log            0.0018      0.005      0.355      0.723      -0.008       0.012\nL4.ggl_trends_log    -0.0152      0.006     -2.461      0.014      -0.027      -0.003\nL4.wiki_views_log     0.0013      0.003      0.506      0.613      -0.004       0.006\nL4.usd_eur_log        0.1304      0.090      1.447      0.148      -0.046       0.307\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.0103      0.019      0.532      0.595      -0.028       0.048\nL4.gold_log          -0.1007      0.058     -1.745      0.081      -0.214       0.012\nL4.sp500_log          0.1300      0.054      2.388      0.017       0.023       0.237\nL4.sse_log           -0.0057      0.032     -0.179      0.858      -0.068       0.057\nL4.ffd_rate_log       0.0103      0.006      1.657      0.098      -0.002       0.022\nDet. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ffd_rate_log\n=====================================================================================\n                        coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nL1.btc_log            0.0121      0.056      0.217      0.829      -0.098       0.122\nL1.tot_btc_log       -1.6155     12.895     -0.125      0.900     -26.889      23.658\nL1.hs_rate_log       -0.0248      0.131     -0.190      0.850      -0.281       0.231\nL1.eth_log           -0.0541      0.033     -1.661      0.097      -0.118       0.010\nL1.ggl_trends_log     0.0539      0.034      1.594      0.111      -0.012       0.120\nL1.wiki_views_log    -0.0340      0.017     -2.039      0.041      -0.067      -0.001\nL1.usd_eur_log       -0.1305      0.491     -0.266      0.791      -1.094       0.833\nL1.oil_wti_log       -0.0994      0.107     -0.927      0.354      -0.309       0.111\nL1.gold_log           0.4630      0.333      1.392      0.164      -0.189       1.115\nL1.sp500_log          0.1372      0.302      0.454      0.650      -0.456       0.730\nL1.sse_log            0.2927      0.191      1.532      0.126      -0.082       0.667\nL1.ffd_rate_log      -0.4408      0.036    -12.379      0.000      -0.511      -0.371\nL2.btc_log            0.0209      0.056      0.371      0.711      -0.090       0.132\nL2.tot_btc_log      -25.5742     12.975     -1.971      0.049     -51.005      -0.144\nL2.hs_rate_log       -0.2351      0.136     -1.727      0.084      -0.502       0.032\nL2.eth_log            0.0170      0.033      0.520      0.603      -0.047       0.081\nL2.ggl_trends_log    -0.0268      0.034     -0.793      0.428      -0.093       0.039\nL2.wiki_views_log    -0.0313      0.016     -1.966      0.049      -0.062   -9.17e-05\nL2.usd_eur_log       -0.4784      0.503     -0.950      0.342      -1.465       0.508\nL2.oil_wti_log       -0.2962      0.107     -2.764      0.006      -0.506      -0.086\nL2.gold_log           0.0922      0.330      0.279      0.780      -0.555       0.739\nL2.sp500_log          0.1734      0.312      0.555      0.579      -0.439       0.786\nL2.sse_log            0.1915      0.190      1.006      0.314      -0.182       0.565\nL2.ffd_rate_log      -0.2082      0.038     -5.416      0.000      -0.284      -0.133\nL3.btc_log           -0.0792      0.057     -1.394      0.163      -0.191       0.032\nL3.tot_btc_log       30.7638     12.909      2.383      0.017       5.462      56.065\nL3.hs_rate_log        0.1346      0.136      0.990      0.322      -0.132       0.401\nL3.eth_log            0.0697      0.032      2.171      0.030       0.007       0.133\nL3.ggl_trends_log     0.0433      0.034      1.272      0.203      -0.023       0.110\nL3.wiki_views_log    -0.0432      0.015     -2.892      0.004      -0.072      -0.014\nL3.usd_eur_log        0.2058      0.504      0.408      0.683      -0.782       1.193\nL3.oil_wti_log        0.1824      0.108      1.695      0.090      -0.028       0.393\nL3.gold_log          -0.0823      0.331     -0.249      0.804      -0.731       0.566\nL3.sp500_log         -0.1045      0.311     -0.336      0.737      -0.713       0.504\nL3.sse_log           -0.0190      0.188     -0.101      0.919      -0.387       0.349\nL3.ffd_rate_log      -0.0950      0.038     -2.499      0.012      -0.169      -0.020\nL4.btc_log            0.0152      0.057      0.269      0.788      -0.096       0.126\nL4.tot_btc_log       -7.5146     12.773     -0.588      0.556     -32.549      17.519\nL4.hs_rate_log       -0.0157      0.130     -0.120      0.904      -0.271       0.240\nL4.eth_log            0.0285      0.028      1.019      0.308      -0.026       0.083\nL4.ggl_trends_log     0.0724      0.034      2.108      0.035       0.005       0.140\nL4.wiki_views_log    -0.0388      0.014     -2.778      0.005      -0.066      -0.011\nL4.usd_eur_log        0.9794      0.501      1.953      0.051      -0.003       1.962\nL4.oil_wti_log        0.2001      0.108      1.852      0.064      -0.012       0.412\nL4.gold_log          -0.3037      0.321     -0.946      0.344      -0.933       0.326\nL4.sp500_log          0.0868      0.303      0.286      0.775      -0.507       0.680\nL4.sse_log           -0.2261      0.177     -1.277      0.202      -0.573       0.121\nL4.ffd_rate_log   -4.127e-05      0.034     -0.001      0.999      -0.068       0.068\n              Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation btc_log               \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0379      0.011     -3.577      0.000      -0.059      -0.017\nec2           -0.0107      0.034     -0.313      0.754      -0.077       0.056\nec3            0.0132      0.012      1.067      0.286      -0.011       0.038\nec4            0.0046      0.003      1.470      0.142      -0.002       0.011\nec5            0.0318      0.011      2.955      0.003       0.011       0.053\nec6           -0.0061      0.009     -0.690      0.490      -0.024       0.011\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation tot_btc_log             \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1        -2.464e-05   4.37e-05     -0.564      0.573      -0.000     6.1e-05\nec2            0.0011      0.000      7.864      0.000       0.001       0.001\nec3         -4.59e-05   5.12e-05     -0.897      0.370      -0.000    5.44e-05\nec4        -1.512e-05   1.28e-05     -1.182      0.237   -4.02e-05    9.96e-06\nec5            0.0001   4.44e-05      3.220      0.001    5.59e-05       0.000\nec6           -0.0002   3.66e-05     -4.244      0.000      -0.000   -8.37e-05\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation hs_rate_log             \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0053      0.004      1.277      0.202      -0.003       0.013\nec2            0.0462      0.013      3.453      0.001       0.020       0.072\nec3           -0.0075      0.005     -1.531      0.126      -0.017       0.002\nec4           -0.0003      0.001     -0.233      0.816      -0.003       0.002\nec5            0.0056      0.004      1.328      0.184      -0.003       0.014\nec6           -0.0071      0.003     -2.045      0.041      -0.014      -0.000\n              Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation eth_log               \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0106      0.018      0.590      0.555      -0.025       0.046\nec2            0.0215      0.058      0.373      0.709      -0.091       0.134\nec3           -0.0131      0.021     -0.625      0.532      -0.054       0.028\nec4           -0.0186      0.005     -3.536      0.000      -0.029      -0.008\nec5            0.0081      0.018      0.445      0.656      -0.028       0.044\nec6            0.0231      0.015      1.536      0.124      -0.006       0.053\n           Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ggl_trends_log           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0684      0.016      4.203      0.000       0.036       0.100\nec2           -0.1318      0.052     -2.525      0.012      -0.234      -0.030\nec3           -0.0605      0.019     -3.179      0.001      -0.098      -0.023\nec4           -0.0132      0.005     -2.781      0.005      -0.023      -0.004\nec5           -0.0838      0.017     -5.068      0.000      -0.116      -0.051\nec6            0.0231      0.014      1.691      0.091      -0.004       0.050\n           Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation wiki_views_log           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0124      0.038     -0.328      0.743      -0.086       0.062\nec2            0.5255      0.121      4.336      0.000       0.288       0.763\nec3           -0.1486      0.044     -3.361      0.001      -0.235      -0.062\nec4            0.0284      0.011      2.567      0.010       0.007       0.050\nec5            0.1970      0.038      5.133      0.000       0.122       0.272\nec6           -0.2193      0.032     -6.926      0.000      -0.281      -0.157\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation usd_eur_log             \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1        -8.663e-06      0.001     -0.008      0.994      -0.002       0.002\nec2           -0.0024      0.004     -0.661      0.509      -0.009       0.005\nec3           -0.0011      0.001     -0.863      0.388      -0.004       0.001\nec4            0.0004      0.000      1.198      0.231      -0.000       0.001\nec5            0.0009      0.001      0.819      0.413      -0.001       0.003\nec6           -0.0003      0.001     -0.298      0.766      -0.002       0.002\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation oil_wti_log             \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0029      0.005     -0.564      0.572      -0.013       0.007\nec2           -0.0401      0.017     -2.398      0.016      -0.073      -0.007\nec3            0.0038      0.006      0.625      0.532      -0.008       0.016\nec4           -0.0018      0.002     -1.209      0.227      -0.005       0.001\nec5           -0.0080      0.005     -1.516      0.129      -0.018       0.002\nec6            0.0100      0.004      2.296      0.022       0.001       0.019\n              Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation gold_log              \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0046      0.002      2.694      0.007       0.001       0.008\nec2            0.0149      0.005      2.727      0.006       0.004       0.026\nec3           -0.0061      0.002     -3.051      0.002      -0.010      -0.002\nec4           -0.0008      0.000     -1.680      0.093      -0.002       0.000\nec5            0.0024      0.002      1.411      0.158      -0.001       0.006\nec6           -0.0036      0.001     -2.507      0.012      -0.006      -0.001\n             Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation sp500_log              \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0010      0.002      0.505      0.614      -0.003       0.005\nec2            0.0160      0.006      2.623      0.009       0.004       0.028\nec3            0.0080      0.002      3.619      0.000       0.004       0.012\nec4           -0.0002      0.001     -0.294      0.769      -0.001       0.001\nec5           -0.0003      0.002     -0.139      0.889      -0.004       0.004\nec6            0.0023      0.002      1.453      0.146      -0.001       0.005\n              Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation sse_log               \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1           -0.0035      0.003     -1.221      0.222      -0.009       0.002\nec2            0.0024      0.009      0.264      0.792      -0.016       0.020\nec3            0.0016      0.003      0.466      0.641      -0.005       0.008\nec4           -0.0017      0.001     -2.063      0.039      -0.003   -8.59e-05\nec5            0.0044      0.003      1.518      0.129      -0.001       0.010\nec6            0.0015      0.002      0.615      0.539      -0.003       0.006\n            Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ffd_rate_log            \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nec1            0.0011      0.016      0.067      0.947      -0.030       0.032\nec2            0.0052      0.051      0.102      0.918      -0.094       0.105\nec3            0.0598      0.019      3.221      0.001       0.023       0.096\nec4            0.0097      0.005      2.080      0.037       0.001       0.019\nec5           -0.0282      0.016     -1.749      0.080      -0.060       0.003\nec6            0.0284      0.013      2.135      0.033       0.002       0.054\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 1           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.2     -5.477e-16          0          0      0.000   -5.48e-16   -5.48e-16\nbeta.3      7.382e-17          0          0      0.000    7.38e-17    7.38e-17\nbeta.4     -1.667e-17          0          0      0.000   -1.67e-17   -1.67e-17\nbeta.5       2.43e-17          0          0      0.000    2.43e-17    2.43e-17\nbeta.6     -6.826e-17          0          0      0.000   -6.83e-17   -6.83e-17\nbeta.7       -16.0754      1.756     -9.155      0.000     -19.517     -12.634\nbeta.8         1.8940      0.628      3.015      0.003       0.663       3.125\nbeta.9         6.6093      2.634      2.509      0.012       1.447      11.772\nbeta.10       -7.8263      6.748     -1.160      0.246     -21.052       5.399\nbeta.11       -0.1407      1.673     -0.084      0.933      -3.420       3.139\nbeta.12        0.3692      4.524      0.082      0.935      -8.497       9.236\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 2           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1     -4.732e-17          0          0      0.000   -4.73e-17   -4.73e-17\nbeta.2         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.3     -1.916e-18          0          0      0.000   -1.92e-18   -1.92e-18\nbeta.4      2.504e-17          0          0      0.000     2.5e-17     2.5e-17\nbeta.5      3.836e-17          0          0      0.000    3.84e-17    3.84e-17\nbeta.6     -2.237e-17          0          0      0.000   -2.24e-17   -2.24e-17\nbeta.7         1.9236      0.561      3.430      0.001       0.824       3.023\nbeta.8        -0.6952      0.201     -3.465      0.001      -1.088      -0.302\nbeta.9        -2.7021      0.841     -3.212      0.001      -4.351      -1.053\nbeta.10        0.2536      2.155      0.118      0.906      -3.971       4.478\nbeta.11        0.4715      0.535      0.882      0.378      -0.576       1.519\nbeta.12       -0.1460      1.445     -0.101      0.920      -2.978       2.686\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 3           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1      2.262e-16          0          0      0.000    2.26e-16    2.26e-16\nbeta.2      1.043e-15          0          0      0.000    1.04e-15    1.04e-15\nbeta.3         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.4      2.092e-18          0          0      0.000    2.09e-18    2.09e-18\nbeta.5     -7.213e-18          0          0      0.000   -7.21e-18   -7.21e-18\nbeta.6     -1.135e-16          0          0      0.000   -1.14e-16   -1.14e-16\nbeta.7        -5.1047      0.914     -5.583      0.000      -6.897      -3.313\nbeta.8         3.0639      0.327      9.366      0.000       2.423       3.705\nbeta.9         7.9699      1.372      5.810      0.000       5.281      10.658\nbeta.10      -11.2072      3.514     -3.189      0.001     -18.095      -4.320\nbeta.11        0.2101      0.871      0.241      0.809      -1.498       1.918\nbeta.12       -0.2863      2.356     -0.122      0.903      -4.904       4.331\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 4           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1     -3.653e-16          0          0      0.000   -3.65e-16   -3.65e-16\nbeta.2     -5.514e-16          0          0      0.000   -5.51e-16   -5.51e-16\nbeta.3     -3.429e-16          0          0      0.000   -3.43e-16   -3.43e-16\nbeta.4         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.5      3.886e-16          0          0      0.000    3.89e-16    3.89e-16\nbeta.6     -3.865e-16          0          0      0.000   -3.86e-16   -3.86e-16\nbeta.7       -18.7557      1.278    -14.674      0.000     -21.261     -16.251\nbeta.8        -6.2366      0.457    -13.639      0.000      -7.133      -5.340\nbeta.9       -18.5105      1.917     -9.654      0.000     -22.268     -14.753\nbeta.10       11.4560      4.912      2.332      0.020       1.828      21.083\nbeta.11        8.3768      1.218      6.877      0.000       5.989      10.764\nbeta.12       -1.9935      3.293     -0.605      0.545      -8.448       4.461\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 5           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1        3.5e-17          0          0      0.000     3.5e-17     3.5e-17\nbeta.2      3.229e-16          0          0      0.000    3.23e-16    3.23e-16\nbeta.3      2.255e-16          0          0      0.000    2.26e-16    2.26e-16\nbeta.4     -2.363e-17          0          0      0.000   -2.36e-17   -2.36e-17\nbeta.5         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.6     -6.623e-17          0          0      0.000   -6.62e-17   -6.62e-17\nbeta.7       -15.2629      0.858    -17.782      0.000     -16.945     -13.581\nbeta.8         0.9231      0.307      3.006      0.003       0.321       1.525\nbeta.9         4.6515      1.288      3.613      0.000       2.128       7.175\nbeta.10       -3.6282      3.299     -1.100      0.271     -10.094       2.837\nbeta.11       -1.2250      0.818     -1.498      0.134      -2.828       0.378\nbeta.12        0.2882      2.211      0.130      0.896      -4.046       4.623\n          Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 6           \n==============================================================================\n                 coef    std err          z      P>|z|      [0.025      0.975]\n------------------------------------------------------------------------------\nbeta.1     -2.405e-16          0          0      0.000    -2.4e-16    -2.4e-16\nbeta.2     -2.746e-16          0          0      0.000   -2.75e-16   -2.75e-16\nbeta.3      1.541e-16          0          0      0.000    1.54e-16    1.54e-16\nbeta.4       2.88e-17          0          0      0.000    2.88e-17    2.88e-17\nbeta.5      1.079e-16          0          0      0.000    1.08e-16    1.08e-16\nbeta.6         1.0000          0          0      0.000       1.000       1.000\nbeta.7        -7.9889      0.187    -42.833      0.000      -8.354      -7.623\nbeta.8        -4.6060      0.067    -69.028      0.000      -4.737      -4.475\nbeta.9        -7.9717      0.280    -28.492      0.000      -8.520      -7.423\nbeta.10        7.5963      0.717     10.598      0.000       6.191       9.001\nbeta.11        0.9931      0.178      5.587      0.000       0.645       1.341\nbeta.12       -0.5955      0.481     -1.239      0.215      -1.537       0.346\n==============================================================================\n\"\"\"",
      "text/html": "<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0237</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>    0.633</td> <td> 0.527</td> <td>   -0.050</td> <td>    0.097</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -10.4730</td> <td>    8.627</td> <td>   -1.214</td> <td> 0.225</td> <td>  -27.382</td> <td>    6.436</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1341</td> <td>    0.087</td> <td>    1.534</td> <td> 0.125</td> <td>   -0.037</td> <td>    0.306</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0114</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>   -0.525</td> <td> 0.600</td> <td>   -0.054</td> <td>    0.031</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0143</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    0.634</td> <td> 0.526</td> <td>   -0.030</td> <td>    0.059</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0087</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>   -0.777</td> <td> 0.437</td> <td>   -0.031</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.3145</td> <td>    0.329</td> <td>   -0.956</td> <td> 0.339</td> <td>   -0.959</td> <td>    0.330</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0624</td> <td>    0.072</td> <td>   -0.870</td> <td> 0.384</td> <td>   -0.203</td> <td>    0.078</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0400</td> <td>    0.223</td> <td>   -0.180</td> <td> 0.857</td> <td>   -0.476</td> <td>    0.396</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.3312</td> <td>    0.202</td> <td>    1.637</td> <td> 0.102</td> <td>   -0.065</td> <td>    0.728</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.1184</td> <td>    0.128</td> <td>   -0.926</td> <td> 0.354</td> <td>   -0.369</td> <td>    0.132</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0028</td> <td>    0.024</td> <td>   -0.119</td> <td> 0.906</td> <td>   -0.050</td> <td>    0.044</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0118</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    0.311</td> <td> 0.755</td> <td>   -0.062</td> <td>    0.086</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -2.5155</td> <td>    8.680</td> <td>   -0.290</td> <td> 0.772</td> <td>  -19.529</td> <td>   14.498</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0121</td> <td>    0.091</td> <td>   -0.133</td> <td> 0.894</td> <td>   -0.191</td> <td>    0.166</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0273</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    1.253</td> <td> 0.210</td> <td>   -0.015</td> <td>    0.070</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0361</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    1.598</td> <td> 0.110</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.080</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0045</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>   -0.426</td> <td> 0.670</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.016</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.4436</td> <td>    0.337</td> <td>    1.317</td> <td> 0.188</td> <td>   -0.216</td> <td>    1.104</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0350</td> <td>    0.072</td> <td>   -0.488</td> <td> 0.626</td> <td>   -0.175</td> <td>    0.106</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.1852</td> <td>    0.221</td> <td>   -0.839</td> <td> 0.402</td> <td>   -0.618</td> <td>    0.248</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1661</td> <td>    0.209</td> <td>    0.795</td> <td> 0.427</td> <td>   -0.244</td> <td>    0.576</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0034</td> <td>    0.127</td> <td>   -0.027</td> <td> 0.978</td> <td>   -0.253</td> <td>    0.246</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0025</td> <td>    0.026</td> <td>   -0.097</td> <td> 0.923</td> <td>   -0.053</td> <td>    0.048</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0541</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    1.424</td> <td> 0.155</td> <td>   -0.020</td> <td>    0.129</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    9.2641</td> <td>    8.637</td> <td>    1.073</td> <td> 0.283</td> <td>   -7.663</td> <td>   26.191</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.1203</td> <td>    0.091</td> <td>   -1.322</td> <td> 0.186</td> <td>   -0.299</td> <td>    0.058</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0206</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>   -0.961</td> <td> 0.336</td> <td>   -0.063</td> <td>    0.021</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0197</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    0.865</td> <td> 0.387</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.064</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0152</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -1.523</td> <td> 0.128</td> <td>   -0.035</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.3253</td> <td>    0.337</td> <td>   -0.965</td> <td> 0.334</td> <td>   -0.986</td> <td>    0.335</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0648</td> <td>    0.072</td> <td>    0.901</td> <td> 0.368</td> <td>   -0.076</td> <td>    0.206</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.3323</td> <td>    0.221</td> <td>    1.501</td> <td> 0.133</td> <td>   -0.102</td> <td>    0.766</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0722</td> <td>    0.208</td> <td>   -0.347</td> <td> 0.728</td> <td>   -0.480</td> <td>    0.335</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0762</td> <td>    0.125</td> <td>   -0.607</td> <td> 0.544</td> <td>   -0.322</td> <td>    0.170</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0047</td> <td>    0.025</td> <td>    0.186</td> <td> 0.852</td> <td>   -0.045</td> <td>    0.055</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0495</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    1.307</td> <td> 0.191</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.124</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -5.8107</td> <td>    8.545</td> <td>   -0.680</td> <td> 0.497</td> <td>  -22.559</td> <td>   10.938</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1462</td> <td>    0.087</td> <td>    1.676</td> <td> 0.094</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.317</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td> 0.990</td> <td>   -0.036</td> <td>    0.037</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0283</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    1.232</td> <td> 0.218</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.073</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0125</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>    1.337</td> <td> 0.181</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.031</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.2912</td> <td>    0.335</td> <td>   -0.868</td> <td> 0.385</td> <td>   -0.949</td> <td>    0.366</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0608</td> <td>    0.072</td> <td>    0.841</td> <td> 0.400</td> <td>   -0.081</td> <td>    0.202</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.2040</td> <td>    0.215</td> <td>   -0.950</td> <td> 0.342</td> <td>   -0.625</td> <td>    0.217</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0316</td> <td>    0.203</td> <td>    0.156</td> <td> 0.876</td> <td>   -0.366</td> <td>    0.429</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.1018</td> <td>    0.118</td> <td>    0.860</td> <td> 0.390</td> <td>   -0.130</td> <td>    0.334</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0024</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -0.105</td> <td> 0.916</td> <td>   -0.048</td> <td>    0.043</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation tot_btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    1.129</td> <td> 0.259</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -0.2062</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -5.800</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.276</td> <td>   -0.137</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0003</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.832</td> <td> 0.405</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>-7.154e-05</td> <td> 8.98e-05</td> <td>   -0.797</td> <td> 0.425</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0002</td> <td> 9.32e-05</td> <td>   -1.751</td> <td> 0.080</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 1.95e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>-1.038e-05</td> <td>  4.6e-05</td> <td>   -0.226</td> <td> 0.821</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 7.97e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0024</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -1.807</td> <td> 0.071</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0001</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.400</td> <td> 0.689</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0015</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.676</td> <td> 0.094</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0010</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.183</td> <td> 0.237</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0008</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.517</td> <td> 0.129</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0005</td> <td> 9.82e-05</td> <td>   -4.690</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>   -0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0001</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.719</td> <td> 0.472</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -0.1546</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -4.323</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.225</td> <td>   -0.085</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0003</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.882</td> <td> 0.378</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0001</td> <td> 8.98e-05</td> <td>    1.179</td> <td> 0.238</td> <td>-7.01e-05</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0002</td> <td> 9.32e-05</td> <td>   -2.255</td> <td> 0.024</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>-2.75e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>-2.544e-05</td> <td> 4.38e-05</td> <td>   -0.580</td> <td> 0.562</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 6.05e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0020</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.476</td> <td> 0.140</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td> 4.371e-06</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td> 0.988</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0011</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.162</td> <td> 0.245</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0001</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.156</td> <td> 0.876</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>-3.762e-05</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.072</td> <td> 0.943</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0002</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>   -1.433</td> <td> 0.152</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 5.59e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0001</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.784</td> <td> 0.433</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -0.1388</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -3.900</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.209</td> <td>   -0.069</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0004</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    1.182</td> <td> 0.237</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td> 1.271e-05</td> <td> 8.85e-05</td> <td>    0.144</td> <td> 0.886</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>-8.813e-06</td> <td> 9.38e-05</td> <td>   -0.094</td> <td> 0.925</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td> 1.291e-05</td> <td> 4.12e-05</td> <td>    0.314</td> <td> 0.754</td> <td>-6.78e-05</td> <td> 9.36e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0004</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.313</td> <td> 0.754</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0008</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    2.763</td> <td> 0.006</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0009</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.965</td> <td> 0.334</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.691</td> <td> 0.489</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.231</td> <td> 0.218</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0003</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>   -2.430</td> <td> 0.015</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>-4.93e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>-6.857e-05</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>   -0.439</td> <td> 0.660</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.0082</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    0.233</td> <td> 0.816</td> <td>   -0.061</td> <td>    0.077</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0001</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.390</td> <td> 0.697</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0002</td> <td> 7.71e-05</td> <td>    2.046</td> <td> 0.041</td> <td> 6.61e-06</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0001</td> <td> 9.47e-05</td> <td>   -1.273</td> <td> 0.203</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 6.51e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td> 8.224e-05</td> <td> 3.85e-05</td> <td>    2.134</td> <td> 0.033</td> <td> 6.72e-06</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0022</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -1.614</td> <td> 0.107</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>  5.79e-05</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.194</td> <td> 0.846</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0011</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.260</td> <td> 0.208</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0010</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.186</td> <td> 0.236</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0010</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    1.986</td> <td> 0.047</td> <td> 1.28e-05</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0002</td> <td> 9.51e-05</td> <td>   -1.813</td> <td> 0.070</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 1.39e-05</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation hs_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0226</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    1.533</td> <td> 0.125</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.051</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -15.8456</td> <td>    3.390</td> <td>   -4.675</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  -22.489</td> <td>   -9.202</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.3115</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    9.068</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.244</td> <td>    0.379</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0181</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -2.110</td> <td> 0.035</td> <td>   -0.035</td> <td>   -0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0113</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -1.266</td> <td> 0.205</td> <td>   -0.029</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0005</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.110</td> <td> 0.913</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1014</td> <td>    0.129</td> <td>    0.785</td> <td> 0.432</td> <td>   -0.152</td> <td>    0.355</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0502</td> <td>    0.028</td> <td>    1.782</td> <td> 0.075</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td>    0.105</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0773</td> <td>    0.087</td> <td>    0.884</td> <td> 0.377</td> <td>   -0.094</td> <td>    0.249</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0102</td> <td>    0.079</td> <td>   -0.129</td> <td> 0.897</td> <td>   -0.166</td> <td>    0.146</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0241</td> <td>    0.050</td> <td>   -0.480</td> <td> 0.632</td> <td>   -0.123</td> <td>    0.074</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0078</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.838</td> <td> 0.402</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0386</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    2.603</td> <td> 0.009</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>    0.068</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -7.0257</td> <td>    3.411</td> <td>   -2.060</td> <td> 0.039</td> <td>  -13.710</td> <td>   -0.341</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0685</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    1.914</td> <td> 0.056</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.139</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0084</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.977</td> <td> 0.329</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0135</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -1.520</td> <td> 0.128</td> <td>   -0.031</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0015</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.366</td> <td> 0.715</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.2995</td> <td>    0.132</td> <td>    2.264</td> <td> 0.024</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>    0.559</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0112</td> <td>    0.028</td> <td>    0.398</td> <td> 0.691</td> <td>   -0.044</td> <td>    0.066</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0461</td> <td>    0.087</td> <td>   -0.531</td> <td> 0.595</td> <td>   -0.216</td> <td>    0.124</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0927</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td>    1.129</td> <td> 0.259</td> <td>   -0.068</td> <td>    0.254</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0440</td> <td>    0.050</td> <td>   -0.879</td> <td> 0.379</td> <td>   -0.142</td> <td>    0.054</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0048</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -0.471</td> <td> 0.637</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.015</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0155</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    1.035</td> <td> 0.301</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.045</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -3.4647</td> <td>    3.393</td> <td>   -1.021</td> <td> 0.307</td> <td>  -10.116</td> <td>    3.186</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0383</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -1.070</td> <td> 0.285</td> <td>   -0.108</td> <td>    0.032</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0055</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>   -0.655</td> <td> 0.512</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0217</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -2.421</td> <td> 0.015</td> <td>   -0.039</td> <td>   -0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0042</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.067</td> <td> 0.286</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0337</td> <td>    0.132</td> <td>   -0.254</td> <td> 0.799</td> <td>   -0.293</td> <td>    0.226</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0387</td> <td>    0.028</td> <td>    1.370</td> <td> 0.171</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.094</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.1350</td> <td>    0.087</td> <td>    1.553</td> <td> 0.120</td> <td>   -0.035</td> <td>    0.305</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1118</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td>    1.369</td> <td> 0.171</td> <td>   -0.048</td> <td>    0.272</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0186</td> <td>    0.049</td> <td>   -0.377</td> <td> 0.706</td> <td>   -0.115</td> <td>    0.078</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0075</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -0.750</td> <td> 0.453</td> <td>   -0.027</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0123</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>   -0.825</td> <td> 0.410</td> <td>   -0.041</td> <td>    0.017</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -1.7076</td> <td>    3.357</td> <td>   -0.509</td> <td> 0.611</td> <td>   -8.288</td> <td>    4.873</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.1583</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -4.618</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.225</td> <td>   -0.091</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0100</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    1.359</td> <td> 0.174</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.024</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0051</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.563</td> <td> 0.573</td> <td>   -0.023</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0007</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.192</td> <td> 0.848</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1455</td> <td>    0.132</td> <td>    1.104</td> <td> 0.270</td> <td>   -0.113</td> <td>    0.404</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0600</td> <td>    0.028</td> <td>   -2.113</td> <td> 0.035</td> <td>   -0.116</td> <td>   -0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.2537</td> <td>    0.084</td> <td>    3.007</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>    0.088</td> <td>    0.419</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0012</td> <td>    0.080</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td> 0.988</td> <td>   -0.155</td> <td>    0.157</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0408</td> <td>    0.047</td> <td>    0.876</td> <td> 0.381</td> <td>   -0.050</td> <td>    0.132</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0079</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.875</td> <td> 0.381</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation eth_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.1434</td> <td>    0.063</td> <td>   -2.264</td> <td> 0.024</td> <td>   -0.268</td> <td>   -0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -13.2771</td> <td>   14.587</td> <td>   -0.910</td> <td> 0.363</td> <td>  -41.868</td> <td>   15.314</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0984</td> <td>    0.148</td> <td>    0.665</td> <td> 0.506</td> <td>   -0.191</td> <td>    0.388</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0588</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>    1.596</td> <td> 0.111</td> <td>   -0.013</td> <td>    0.131</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0131</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    0.342</td> <td> 0.732</td> <td>   -0.062</td> <td>    0.088</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0219</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -1.163</td> <td> 0.245</td> <td>   -0.059</td> <td>    0.015</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.6174</td> <td>    0.556</td> <td>   -1.111</td> <td> 0.267</td> <td>   -1.707</td> <td>    0.472</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0302</td> <td>    0.121</td> <td>    0.249</td> <td> 0.803</td> <td>   -0.208</td> <td>    0.268</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.376</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td> 0.999</td> <td>   -0.737</td> <td>    0.738</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0951</td> <td>    0.342</td> <td>    0.278</td> <td> 0.781</td> <td>   -0.575</td> <td>    0.766</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0950</td> <td>    0.216</td> <td>   -0.440</td> <td> 0.660</td> <td>   -0.519</td> <td>    0.329</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0318</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>   -0.789</td> <td> 0.430</td> <td>   -0.111</td> <td>    0.047</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0555</td> <td>    0.064</td> <td>    0.869</td> <td> 0.385</td> <td>   -0.070</td> <td>    0.181</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.7373</td> <td>   14.678</td> <td>    0.118</td> <td> 0.906</td> <td>  -27.031</td> <td>   30.506</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0597</td> <td>    0.154</td> <td>    0.387</td> <td> 0.698</td> <td>   -0.242</td> <td>    0.361</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0466</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>   -1.266</td> <td> 0.206</td> <td>   -0.119</td> <td>    0.026</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0349</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    0.913</td> <td> 0.362</td> <td>   -0.040</td> <td>    0.110</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0343</td> <td>    0.018</td> <td>   -1.908</td> <td> 0.056</td> <td>   -0.070</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.2219</td> <td>    0.569</td> <td>    0.390</td> <td> 0.697</td> <td>   -0.894</td> <td>    1.338</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0712</td> <td>    0.121</td> <td>   -0.587</td> <td> 0.557</td> <td>   -0.309</td> <td>    0.166</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0056</td> <td>    0.373</td> <td>   -0.015</td> <td> 0.988</td> <td>   -0.737</td> <td>    0.726</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.4204</td> <td>    0.353</td> <td>    1.190</td> <td> 0.234</td> <td>   -0.272</td> <td>    1.113</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.1851</td> <td>    0.215</td> <td>    0.859</td> <td> 0.390</td> <td>   -0.237</td> <td>    0.607</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0350</td> <td>    0.043</td> <td>   -0.805</td> <td> 0.421</td> <td>   -0.120</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.1150</td> <td>    0.064</td> <td>    1.789</td> <td> 0.074</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.241</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -11.7640</td> <td>   14.604</td> <td>   -0.806</td> <td> 0.420</td> <td>  -40.387</td> <td>   16.858</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1018</td> <td>    0.154</td> <td>    0.662</td> <td> 0.508</td> <td>   -0.200</td> <td>    0.403</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0273</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    0.752</td> <td> 0.452</td> <td>   -0.044</td> <td>    0.098</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0497</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>    1.292</td> <td> 0.196</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.125</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0323</td> <td>    0.017</td> <td>   -1.914</td> <td> 0.056</td> <td>   -0.065</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.4967</td> <td>    0.570</td> <td>   -0.872</td> <td> 0.383</td> <td>   -1.614</td> <td>    0.620</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0303</td> <td>    0.122</td> <td>   -0.249</td> <td> 0.803</td> <td>   -0.269</td> <td>    0.208</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.3025</td> <td>    0.374</td> <td>    0.808</td> <td> 0.419</td> <td>   -0.431</td> <td>    1.036</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.1821</td> <td>    0.351</td> <td>   -0.518</td> <td> 0.604</td> <td>   -0.871</td> <td>    0.507</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.1252</td> <td>    0.212</td> <td>   -0.590</td> <td> 0.555</td> <td>   -0.541</td> <td>    0.291</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0212</td> <td>    0.043</td> <td>   -0.493</td> <td> 0.622</td> <td>   -0.105</td> <td>    0.063</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0535</td> <td>    0.064</td> <td>    0.835</td> <td> 0.404</td> <td>   -0.072</td> <td>    0.179</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    3.6770</td> <td>   14.449</td> <td>    0.254</td> <td> 0.799</td> <td>  -24.643</td> <td>   31.997</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0391</td> <td>    0.148</td> <td>    0.265</td> <td> 0.791</td> <td>   -0.250</td> <td>    0.328</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0248</td> <td>    0.032</td> <td>   -0.785</td> <td> 0.432</td> <td>   -0.087</td> <td>    0.037</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0269</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>   -0.693</td> <td> 0.489</td> <td>   -0.103</td> <td>    0.049</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0128</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>    0.811</td> <td> 0.418</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.044</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0653</td> <td>    0.567</td> <td>   -0.115</td> <td> 0.908</td> <td>   -1.177</td> <td>    1.047</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0359</td> <td>    0.122</td> <td>    0.294</td> <td> 0.769</td> <td>   -0.204</td> <td>    0.275</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0872</td> <td>    0.363</td> <td>   -0.240</td> <td> 0.810</td> <td>   -0.799</td> <td>    0.625</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0401</td> <td>    0.343</td> <td>   -0.117</td> <td> 0.907</td> <td>   -0.712</td> <td>    0.632</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.2091</td> <td>    0.200</td> <td>    1.044</td> <td> 0.296</td> <td>   -0.183</td> <td>    0.602</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0249</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>   -0.639</td> <td> 0.523</td> <td>   -0.101</td> <td>    0.052</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ggl_trends_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0037</td> <td>    0.057</td> <td>    0.065</td> <td> 0.948</td> <td>   -0.109</td> <td>    0.116</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -4.4117</td> <td>   13.234</td> <td>   -0.333</td> <td> 0.739</td> <td>  -30.350</td> <td>   21.526</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1123</td> <td>    0.134</td> <td>    0.837</td> <td> 0.402</td> <td>   -0.151</td> <td>    0.375</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0015</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    0.044</td> <td> 0.965</td> <td>   -0.064</td> <td>    0.067</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1066</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    3.071</td> <td> 0.002</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>    0.175</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0372</td> <td>    0.017</td> <td>   -2.173</td> <td> 0.030</td> <td>   -0.071</td> <td>   -0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.4057</td> <td>    0.504</td> <td>    0.804</td> <td> 0.421</td> <td>   -0.583</td> <td>    1.394</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.1157</td> <td>    0.110</td> <td>    1.051</td> <td> 0.293</td> <td>   -0.100</td> <td>    0.331</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0104</td> <td>    0.341</td> <td>   -0.030</td> <td> 0.976</td> <td>   -0.680</td> <td>    0.659</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.3982</td> <td>    0.310</td> <td>   -1.283</td> <td> 0.199</td> <td>   -1.007</td> <td>    0.210</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0923</td> <td>    0.196</td> <td>   -0.471</td> <td> 0.638</td> <td>   -0.477</td> <td>    0.292</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.1014</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>   -2.775</td> <td> 0.006</td> <td>   -0.173</td> <td>   -0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0644</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>    1.111</td> <td> 0.267</td> <td>   -0.049</td> <td>    0.178</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -8.1372</td> <td>   13.316</td> <td>   -0.611</td> <td> 0.541</td> <td>  -34.236</td> <td>   17.962</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.2128</td> <td>    0.140</td> <td>    1.523</td> <td> 0.128</td> <td>   -0.061</td> <td>    0.487</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0441</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    1.320</td> <td> 0.187</td> <td>   -0.021</td> <td>    0.110</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1060</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    3.056</td> <td> 0.002</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    0.174</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0437</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>   -2.680</td> <td> 0.007</td> <td>   -0.076</td> <td>   -0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1765</td> <td>    0.517</td> <td>    0.342</td> <td> 0.733</td> <td>   -0.836</td> <td>    1.189</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0223</td> <td>    0.110</td> <td>    0.203</td> <td> 0.839</td> <td>   -0.193</td> <td>    0.238</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.1990</td> <td>    0.339</td> <td>   -0.587</td> <td> 0.557</td> <td>   -0.863</td> <td>    0.465</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1323</td> <td>    0.321</td> <td>    0.413</td> <td> 0.680</td> <td>   -0.496</td> <td>    0.761</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.3012</td> <td>    0.195</td> <td>   -1.542</td> <td> 0.123</td> <td>   -0.684</td> <td>    0.082</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0404</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>   -1.025</td> <td> 0.306</td> <td>   -0.118</td> <td>    0.037</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0482</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>    0.826</td> <td> 0.409</td> <td>   -0.066</td> <td>    0.162</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -3.2514</td> <td>   13.249</td> <td>   -0.245</td> <td> 0.806</td> <td>  -29.218</td> <td>   22.715</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0394</td> <td>    0.140</td> <td>   -0.282</td> <td> 0.778</td> <td>   -0.313</td> <td>    0.234</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0185</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    0.562</td> <td> 0.574</td> <td>   -0.046</td> <td>    0.083</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1014</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    2.903</td> <td> 0.004</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    0.170</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0028</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>   -0.183</td> <td> 0.855</td> <td>   -0.033</td> <td>    0.027</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.9923</td> <td>    0.517</td> <td>   -1.919</td> <td> 0.055</td> <td>   -2.006</td> <td>    0.021</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0665</td> <td>    0.110</td> <td>   -0.603</td> <td> 0.547</td> <td>   -0.283</td> <td>    0.150</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.4503</td> <td>    0.340</td> <td>    1.326</td> <td> 0.185</td> <td>   -0.215</td> <td>    1.116</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.3488</td> <td>    0.319</td> <td>    1.094</td> <td> 0.274</td> <td>   -0.276</td> <td>    0.974</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.1723</td> <td>    0.192</td> <td>   -0.895</td> <td> 0.371</td> <td>   -0.549</td> <td>    0.205</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0678</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>   -1.739</td> <td> 0.082</td> <td>   -0.144</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0569</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>    0.979</td> <td> 0.327</td> <td>   -0.057</td> <td>    0.171</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    6.9672</td> <td>   13.108</td> <td>    0.532</td> <td> 0.595</td> <td>  -18.725</td> <td>   32.659</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0679</td> <td>    0.134</td> <td>    0.507</td> <td> 0.612</td> <td>   -0.194</td> <td>    0.330</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0074</td> <td>    0.029</td> <td>   -0.257</td> <td> 0.797</td> <td>   -0.064</td> <td>    0.049</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1104</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    3.131</td> <td> 0.002</td> <td>    0.041</td> <td>    0.179</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0015</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    0.106</td> <td> 0.916</td> <td>   -0.027</td> <td>    0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.2892</td> <td>    0.515</td> <td>   -0.562</td> <td> 0.574</td> <td>   -1.298</td> <td>    0.719</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.1321</td> <td>    0.111</td> <td>   -1.191</td> <td> 0.234</td> <td>   -0.349</td> <td>    0.085</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.4858</td> <td>    0.330</td> <td>   -1.474</td> <td> 0.140</td> <td>   -1.132</td> <td>    0.160</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0194</td> <td>    0.311</td> <td>    0.062</td> <td> 0.950</td> <td>   -0.590</td> <td>    0.629</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.1854</td> <td>    0.182</td> <td>    1.021</td> <td> 0.307</td> <td>   -0.171</td> <td>    0.542</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0517</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>    1.462</td> <td> 0.144</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.121</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation wiki_views_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.2421</td> <td>    0.133</td> <td>    1.815</td> <td> 0.070</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.504</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -29.1321</td> <td>   30.722</td> <td>   -0.948</td> <td> 0.343</td> <td>  -89.347</td> <td>   31.083</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.4296</td> <td>    0.311</td> <td>    1.380</td> <td> 0.168</td> <td>   -0.181</td> <td>    1.040</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0556</td> <td>    0.078</td> <td>   -0.717</td> <td> 0.473</td> <td>   -0.208</td> <td>    0.096</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0432</td> <td>    0.081</td> <td>    0.537</td> <td> 0.591</td> <td>   -0.115</td> <td>    0.201</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.1914</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>   -4.821</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.269</td> <td>   -0.114</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.9703</td> <td>    1.171</td> <td>    0.829</td> <td> 0.407</td> <td>   -1.325</td> <td>    3.265</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0967</td> <td>    0.255</td> <td>    0.378</td> <td> 0.705</td> <td>   -0.404</td> <td>    0.597</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.2876</td> <td>    0.793</td> <td>    0.363</td> <td> 0.717</td> <td>   -1.266</td> <td>    1.841</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1504</td> <td>    0.721</td> <td>    0.209</td> <td> 0.835</td> <td>   -1.262</td> <td>    1.563</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.5847</td> <td>    0.455</td> <td>   -1.284</td> <td> 0.199</td> <td>   -1.477</td> <td>    0.308</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.2464</td> <td>    0.085</td> <td>   -2.905</td> <td> 0.004</td> <td>   -0.413</td> <td>   -0.080</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.2642</td> <td>    0.135</td> <td>    1.964</td> <td> 0.050</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.528</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -7.5010</td> <td>   30.913</td> <td>   -0.243</td> <td> 0.808</td> <td>  -68.089</td> <td>   53.087</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.1837</td> <td>    0.324</td> <td>   -0.567</td> <td> 0.571</td> <td>   -0.819</td> <td>    0.452</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0296</td> <td>    0.078</td> <td>   -0.381</td> <td> 0.703</td> <td>   -0.182</td> <td>    0.122</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1725</td> <td>    0.081</td> <td>    2.141</td> <td> 0.032</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    0.330</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.1658</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>   -4.377</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.240</td> <td>   -0.092</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.9965</td> <td>    1.199</td> <td>   -0.831</td> <td> 0.406</td> <td>   -3.347</td> <td>    1.354</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.7716</td> <td>    0.255</td> <td>   -3.022</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>   -1.272</td> <td>   -0.271</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>    1.6497</td> <td>    0.786</td> <td>    2.098</td> <td> 0.036</td> <td>    0.108</td> <td>    3.191</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.9856</td> <td>    0.744</td> <td>    1.324</td> <td> 0.185</td> <td>   -0.473</td> <td>    2.444</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.7350</td> <td>    0.454</td> <td>    1.620</td> <td> 0.105</td> <td>   -0.154</td> <td>    1.624</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0987</td> <td>    0.092</td> <td>   -1.078</td> <td> 0.281</td> <td>   -0.278</td> <td>    0.081</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.1267</td> <td>    0.135</td> <td>    0.936</td> <td> 0.349</td> <td>   -0.139</td> <td>    0.392</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -48.0194</td> <td>   30.756</td> <td>   -1.561</td> <td> 0.118</td> <td> -108.301</td> <td>   12.262</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0539</td> <td>    0.324</td> <td>    0.166</td> <td> 0.868</td> <td>   -0.581</td> <td>    0.689</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0215</td> <td>    0.076</td> <td>   -0.281</td> <td> 0.779</td> <td>   -0.171</td> <td>    0.128</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1331</td> <td>    0.081</td> <td>    1.641</td> <td> 0.101</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.292</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.1661</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -4.669</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.236</td> <td>   -0.096</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.5040</td> <td>    1.200</td> <td>   -0.420</td> <td> 0.675</td> <td>   -2.856</td> <td>    1.848</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.2948</td> <td>    0.256</td> <td>   -1.150</td> <td> 0.250</td> <td>   -0.797</td> <td>    0.207</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.9611</td> <td>    0.788</td> <td>    1.219</td> <td> 0.223</td> <td>   -0.584</td> <td>    2.506</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    1.3570</td> <td>    0.740</td> <td>    1.833</td> <td> 0.067</td> <td>   -0.094</td> <td>    2.808</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0873</td> <td>    0.447</td> <td>   -0.195</td> <td> 0.845</td> <td>   -0.963</td> <td>    0.788</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.2161</td> <td>    0.091</td> <td>   -2.387</td> <td> 0.017</td> <td>   -0.394</td> <td>   -0.039</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0799</td> <td>    0.135</td> <td>    0.593</td> <td> 0.553</td> <td>   -0.184</td> <td>    0.344</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -22.7361</td> <td>   30.431</td> <td>   -0.747</td> <td> 0.455</td> <td>  -82.380</td> <td>   36.908</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1787</td> <td>    0.311</td> <td>    0.575</td> <td> 0.565</td> <td>   -0.430</td> <td>    0.788</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0469</td> <td>    0.067</td> <td>    0.703</td> <td> 0.482</td> <td>   -0.084</td> <td>    0.177</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.1852</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td>    2.263</td> <td> 0.024</td> <td>    0.025</td> <td>    0.346</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.1044</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>   -3.136</td> <td> 0.002</td> <td>   -0.170</td> <td>   -0.039</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    1.0369</td> <td>    1.195</td> <td>    0.868</td> <td> 0.385</td> <td>   -1.305</td> <td>    3.378</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.2945</td> <td>    0.257</td> <td>    1.144</td> <td> 0.253</td> <td>   -0.210</td> <td>    0.799</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.4468</td> <td>    0.765</td> <td>   -0.584</td> <td> 0.559</td> <td>   -1.946</td> <td>    1.053</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.2544</td> <td>    0.722</td> <td>    0.353</td> <td> 0.724</td> <td>   -1.160</td> <td>    1.669</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0022</td> <td>    0.422</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td> 0.996</td> <td>   -0.829</td> <td>    0.825</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0566</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td>   -0.689</td> <td> 0.491</td> <td>   -0.218</td> <td>    0.104</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation usd_eur_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0064</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -1.622</td> <td> 0.105</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.4720</td> <td>    0.913</td> <td>    1.612</td> <td> 0.107</td> <td>   -0.318</td> <td>    3.262</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0006</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.062</td> <td> 0.951</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.018</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0013</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.584</td> <td> 0.559</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0025</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    1.042</td> <td> 0.298</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0009</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.803</td> <td> 0.422</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0177</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>   -0.509</td> <td> 0.610</td> <td>   -0.086</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0161</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>    2.119</td> <td> 0.034</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.031</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0016</td> <td>    0.024</td> <td>    0.068</td> <td> 0.946</td> <td>   -0.045</td> <td>    0.048</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0216</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>   -1.009</td> <td> 0.313</td> <td>   -0.064</td> <td>    0.020</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0151</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    1.118</td> <td> 0.264</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.042</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0007</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.269</td> <td> 0.788</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0043</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -1.072</td> <td> 0.284</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.0600</td> <td>    0.919</td> <td>    0.065</td> <td> 0.948</td> <td>   -1.741</td> <td>    1.861</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0070</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -0.724</td> <td> 0.469</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0034</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    1.469</td> <td> 0.142</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0023</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.961</td> <td> 0.337</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0014</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.222</td> <td> 0.222</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0157</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -0.441</td> <td> 0.659</td> <td>   -0.086</td> <td>    0.054</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0016</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>   -0.216</td> <td> 0.829</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0115</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    0.494</td> <td> 0.621</td> <td>   -0.034</td> <td>    0.057</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0114</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>   -0.515</td> <td> 0.607</td> <td>   -0.055</td> <td>    0.032</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.177</td> <td> 0.860</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.029</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0055</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    2.003</td> <td> 0.045</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0046</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.141</td> <td> 0.254</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.0168</td> <td>    0.914</td> <td>    1.112</td> <td> 0.266</td> <td>   -0.775</td> <td>    2.808</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0002</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -0.020</td> <td> 0.984</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0039</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -1.725</td> <td> 0.085</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0055</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -2.300</td> <td> 0.021</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>   -0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.229</td> <td> 0.819</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0474</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -1.329</td> <td> 0.184</td> <td>   -0.117</td> <td>    0.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0096</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>   -1.254</td> <td> 0.210</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0270</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    1.151</td> <td> 0.250</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.073</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0096</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>    0.435</td> <td> 0.664</td> <td>   -0.034</td> <td>    0.053</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0083</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.623</td> <td> 0.533</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.034</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0028</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -1.059</td> <td> 0.290</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td> 1.228e-05</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td> 0.998</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.5592</td> <td>    0.904</td> <td>    0.618</td> <td> 0.536</td> <td>   -1.214</td> <td>    2.332</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0141</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -1.524</td> <td> 0.127</td> <td>   -0.032</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.305</td> <td> 0.760</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0050</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -2.072</td> <td> 0.038</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>   -0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0013</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    1.292</td> <td> 0.196</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0451</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -1.269</td> <td> 0.204</td> <td>   -0.115</td> <td>    0.025</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0110</td> <td>    0.008</td> <td>    1.438</td> <td> 0.151</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.026</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0185</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -0.813</td> <td> 0.416</td> <td>   -0.063</td> <td>    0.026</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0231</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>   -1.079</td> <td> 0.281</td> <td>   -0.065</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0304</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>   -2.427</td> <td> 0.015</td> <td>   -0.055</td> <td>   -0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0062</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -2.522</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>   -0.001</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation oil_wti_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0195</td> <td>    0.018</td> <td>    1.058</td> <td> 0.290</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.056</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    6.8411</td> <td>    4.242</td> <td>    1.613</td> <td> 0.107</td> <td>   -1.474</td> <td>   15.156</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0166</td> <td>    0.043</td> <td>    0.386</td> <td> 0.700</td> <td>   -0.068</td> <td>    0.101</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0033</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    0.306</td> <td> 0.759</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.024</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0083</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    0.744</td> <td> 0.457</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0084</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -1.531</td> <td> 0.126</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.1645</td> <td>    0.162</td> <td>   -1.017</td> <td> 0.309</td> <td>   -0.481</td> <td>    0.152</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0348</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>   -0.987</td> <td> 0.324</td> <td>   -0.104</td> <td>    0.034</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0123</td> <td>    0.109</td> <td>   -0.112</td> <td> 0.911</td> <td>   -0.227</td> <td>    0.202</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1761</td> <td>    0.099</td> <td>    1.770</td> <td> 0.077</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.371</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0127</td> <td>    0.063</td> <td>   -0.202</td> <td> 0.840</td> <td>   -0.136</td> <td>    0.111</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0090</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>   -0.769</td> <td> 0.442</td> <td>   -0.032</td> <td>    0.014</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0129</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.694</td> <td> 0.488</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.049</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -4.0276</td> <td>    4.269</td> <td>   -0.944</td> <td> 0.345</td> <td>  -12.394</td> <td>    4.339</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0243</td> <td>    0.045</td> <td>    0.542</td> <td> 0.588</td> <td>   -0.064</td> <td>    0.112</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0154</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    1.438</td> <td> 0.150</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.036</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0183</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    1.648</td> <td> 0.099</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.040</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0040</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -0.767</td> <td> 0.443</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.1886</td> <td>    0.166</td> <td>   -1.139</td> <td> 0.255</td> <td>   -0.513</td> <td>    0.136</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0545</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>   -1.544</td> <td> 0.122</td> <td>   -0.124</td> <td>    0.015</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.1190</td> <td>    0.109</td> <td>    1.096</td> <td> 0.273</td> <td>   -0.094</td> <td>    0.332</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0193</td> <td>    0.103</td> <td>    0.188</td> <td> 0.851</td> <td>   -0.182</td> <td>    0.221</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0242</td> <td>    0.063</td> <td>   -0.386</td> <td> 0.700</td> <td>   -0.147</td> <td>    0.099</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0078</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.614</td> <td> 0.539</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.033</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0109</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.586</td> <td> 0.558</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.048</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.8348</td> <td>    4.247</td> <td>    0.197</td> <td> 0.844</td> <td>   -7.489</td> <td>    9.159</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0198</td> <td>    0.045</td> <td>    0.443</td> <td> 0.658</td> <td>   -0.068</td> <td>    0.108</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0286</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>   -2.705</td> <td> 0.007</td> <td>   -0.049</td> <td>   -0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0236</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    2.106</td> <td> 0.035</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.046</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0055</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -1.113</td> <td> 0.266</td> <td>   -0.015</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.1512</td> <td>    0.166</td> <td>   -0.913</td> <td> 0.361</td> <td>   -0.476</td> <td>    0.174</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0414</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>   -1.171</td> <td> 0.242</td> <td>   -0.111</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.1034</td> <td>    0.109</td> <td>   -0.950</td> <td> 0.342</td> <td>   -0.317</td> <td>    0.110</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1406</td> <td>    0.102</td> <td>    1.376</td> <td> 0.169</td> <td>   -0.060</td> <td>    0.341</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0567</td> <td>    0.062</td> <td>    0.918</td> <td> 0.358</td> <td>   -0.064</td> <td>    0.178</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0086</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.687</td> <td> 0.492</td> <td>   -0.016</td> <td>    0.033</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0111</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -0.598</td> <td> 0.550</td> <td>   -0.048</td> <td>    0.025</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    2.1472</td> <td>    4.202</td> <td>    0.511</td> <td> 0.609</td> <td>   -6.089</td> <td>   10.383</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0053</td> <td>    0.043</td> <td>    0.124</td> <td> 0.902</td> <td>   -0.079</td> <td>    0.089</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0186</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>    2.026</td> <td> 0.043</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.037</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0184</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>   -1.624</td> <td> 0.104</td> <td>   -0.041</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0031</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.667</td> <td> 0.505</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.2719</td> <td>    0.165</td> <td>    1.648</td> <td> 0.099</td> <td>   -0.051</td> <td>    0.595</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0583</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    1.640</td> <td> 0.101</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.128</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0720</td> <td>    0.106</td> <td>   -0.681</td> <td> 0.496</td> <td>   -0.279</td> <td>    0.135</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0686</td> <td>    0.100</td> <td>   -0.688</td> <td> 0.491</td> <td>   -0.264</td> <td>    0.127</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0606</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>   -1.041</td> <td> 0.298</td> <td>   -0.175</td> <td>    0.054</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0084</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    0.737</td> <td> 0.461</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.031</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation gold_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0093</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -1.538</td> <td> 0.124</td> <td>   -0.021</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.9018</td> <td>    1.388</td> <td>    1.370</td> <td> 0.171</td> <td>   -0.819</td> <td>    4.623</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0043</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>   -0.303</td> <td> 0.762</td> <td>   -0.032</td> <td>    0.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0026</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.754</td> <td> 0.451</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0024</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.650</td> <td> 0.515</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0008</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.455</td> <td> 0.649</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.3223</td> <td>    0.053</td> <td>    6.091</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.219</td> <td>    0.426</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0236</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>    2.047</td> <td> 0.041</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.046</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0649</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -1.810</td> <td> 0.070</td> <td>   -0.135</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0778</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>   -2.389</td> <td> 0.017</td> <td>   -0.142</td> <td>   -0.014</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0405</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>    1.970</td> <td> 0.049</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    0.081</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0040</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -1.038</td> <td> 0.299</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0012</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.191</td> <td> 0.848</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -0.0429</td> <td>    1.397</td> <td>   -0.031</td> <td> 0.976</td> <td>   -2.781</td> <td>    2.695</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0111</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>   -0.757</td> <td> 0.449</td> <td>   -0.040</td> <td>    0.018</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.052</td> <td> 0.958</td> <td>   -0.007</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0028</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.767</td> <td> 0.443</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0016</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.929</td> <td> 0.353</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0577</td> <td>    0.054</td> <td>    1.065</td> <td> 0.287</td> <td>   -0.048</td> <td>    0.164</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td> 0.988</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0842</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>   -2.370</td> <td> 0.018</td> <td>   -0.154</td> <td>   -0.015</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0087</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    0.258</td> <td> 0.796</td> <td>   -0.057</td> <td>    0.075</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0212</td> <td>    0.020</td> <td>    1.034</td> <td> 0.301</td> <td>   -0.019</td> <td>    0.061</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0013</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.326</td> <td> 0.744</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0145</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -2.371</td> <td> 0.018</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>   -0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    2.3767</td> <td>    1.390</td> <td>    1.710</td> <td> 0.087</td> <td>   -0.347</td> <td>    5.101</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    0.167</td> <td> 0.868</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.031</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0062</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    1.799</td> <td> 0.072</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0019</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.514</td> <td> 0.607</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0011</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -0.704</td> <td> 0.482</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0090</td> <td>    0.054</td> <td>    0.166</td> <td> 0.868</td> <td>   -0.097</td> <td>    0.115</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0193</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>   -1.664</td> <td> 0.096</td> <td>   -0.042</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0607</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    1.705</td> <td> 0.088</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>    0.131</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.0088</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>   -0.263</td> <td> 0.792</td> <td>   -0.074</td> <td>    0.057</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0040</td> <td>    0.020</td> <td>    0.200</td> <td> 0.841</td> <td>   -0.036</td> <td>    0.044</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0009</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.208</td> <td> 0.835</td> <td>   -0.007</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0016</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -0.262</td> <td> 0.793</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.4457</td> <td>    1.375</td> <td>    1.051</td> <td> 0.293</td> <td>   -1.250</td> <td>    4.141</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0184</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>   -1.314</td> <td> 0.189</td> <td>   -0.046</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0018</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -0.589</td> <td> 0.556</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0051</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.366</td> <td> 0.172</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0014</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -0.903</td> <td> 0.366</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0071</td> <td>    0.054</td> <td>   -0.131</td> <td> 0.896</td> <td>   -0.113</td> <td>    0.099</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0060</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>    0.519</td> <td> 0.604</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.029</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0020</td> <td>    0.035</td> <td>   -0.058</td> <td> 0.954</td> <td>   -0.070</td> <td>    0.066</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0310</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    0.951</td> <td> 0.341</td> <td>   -0.033</td> <td>    0.095</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0009</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -0.049</td> <td> 0.961</td> <td>   -0.038</td> <td>    0.036</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0047</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -1.262</td> <td> 0.207</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation sp500_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0054</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    0.801</td> <td> 0.423</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.018</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.1801</td> <td>    1.541</td> <td>    0.766</td> <td> 0.444</td> <td>   -1.841</td> <td>    4.201</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0248</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>    1.585</td> <td> 0.113</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.055</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0038</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.982</td> <td> 0.326</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0027</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.658</td> <td> 0.510</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0018</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -0.896</td> <td> 0.370</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1026</td> <td>    0.059</td> <td>    1.747</td> <td> 0.081</td> <td>   -0.013</td> <td>    0.218</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0006</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.049</td> <td> 0.961</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.026</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0827</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>   -2.081</td> <td> 0.037</td> <td>   -0.161</td> <td>   -0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0473</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    1.307</td> <td> 0.191</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.118</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0335</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -1.469</td> <td> 0.142</td> <td>   -0.078</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0099</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -2.331</td> <td> 0.020</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>   -0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0008</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>   -0.121</td> <td> 0.904</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.8756</td> <td>    1.551</td> <td>    0.565</td> <td> 0.572</td> <td>   -2.164</td> <td>    3.915</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0129</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>   -0.791</td> <td> 0.429</td> <td>   -0.045</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0022</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.567</td> <td> 0.571</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0030</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.751</td> <td> 0.453</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0039</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -2.059</td> <td> 0.039</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>   -0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0326</td> <td>    0.060</td> <td>    0.541</td> <td> 0.588</td> <td>   -0.085</td> <td>    0.150</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0206</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>   -1.610</td> <td> 0.107</td> <td>   -0.046</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0054</td> <td>    0.039</td> <td>   -0.136</td> <td> 0.892</td> <td>   -0.083</td> <td>    0.072</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0212</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>    0.568</td> <td> 0.570</td> <td>   -0.052</td> <td>    0.094</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0024</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -0.108</td> <td> 0.914</td> <td>   -0.047</td> <td>    0.042</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0011</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.248</td> <td> 0.805</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0168</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    2.475</td> <td> 0.013</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.4499</td> <td>    1.543</td> <td>    0.940</td> <td> 0.347</td> <td>   -1.574</td> <td>    4.474</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0133</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>   -0.816</td> <td> 0.414</td> <td>   -0.045</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0047</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -1.234</td> <td> 0.217</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0131</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    3.217</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.021</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0052</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -2.930</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>   -0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.0364</td> <td>    0.060</td> <td>    0.605</td> <td> 0.545</td> <td>   -0.082</td> <td>    0.154</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0028</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    0.217</td> <td> 0.828</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0084</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>   -0.213</td> <td> 0.831</td> <td>   -0.086</td> <td>    0.069</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0082</td> <td>    0.037</td> <td>    0.221</td> <td> 0.825</td> <td>   -0.065</td> <td>    0.081</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0293</td> <td>    0.022</td> <td>   -1.309</td> <td> 0.190</td> <td>   -0.073</td> <td>    0.015</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.537</td> <td> 0.591</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0077</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>   -1.139</td> <td> 0.255</td> <td>   -0.021</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.4006</td> <td>    1.527</td> <td>    0.262</td> <td> 0.793</td> <td>   -2.591</td> <td>    3.393</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0148</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>    0.950</td> <td> 0.342</td> <td>   -0.016</td> <td>    0.045</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0053</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    1.595</td> <td> 0.111</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0029</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.706</td> <td> 0.480</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0005</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -0.280</td> <td> 0.780</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1578</td> <td>    0.060</td> <td>    2.632</td> <td> 0.008</td> <td>    0.040</td> <td>    0.275</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0162</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>   -1.255</td> <td> 0.209</td> <td>   -0.042</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0417</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    1.088</td> <td> 0.277</td> <td>   -0.033</td> <td>    0.117</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0696</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    1.924</td> <td> 0.054</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.141</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0503</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>    2.377</td> <td> 0.017</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>    0.092</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0064</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.565</td> <td> 0.118</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.015</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation sse_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0006</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>   -0.059</td> <td> 0.953</td> <td>   -0.020</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    1.7051</td> <td>    2.318</td> <td>    0.736</td> <td> 0.462</td> <td>   -2.837</td> <td>    6.248</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0249</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -1.059</td> <td> 0.290</td> <td>   -0.071</td> <td>    0.021</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0054</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.922</td> <td> 0.357</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.017</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0002</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.025</td> <td> 0.980</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.788</td> <td> 0.431</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0678</td> <td>    0.088</td> <td>   -0.768</td> <td> 0.443</td> <td>   -0.241</td> <td>    0.105</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0123</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.638</td> <td> 0.523</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0293</td> <td>    0.060</td> <td>   -0.491</td> <td> 0.624</td> <td>   -0.147</td> <td>    0.088</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.5227</td> <td>    0.054</td> <td>    9.617</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.416</td> <td>    0.629</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.1017</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -2.961</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>   -0.169</td> <td>   -0.034</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0104</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    1.621</td> <td> 0.105</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0232</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>    2.284</td> <td> 0.022</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.043</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -2.0074</td> <td>    2.332</td> <td>   -0.861</td> <td> 0.389</td> <td>   -6.578</td> <td>    2.563</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0179</td> <td>    0.024</td> <td>   -0.733</td> <td> 0.464</td> <td>   -0.066</td> <td>    0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0103</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -1.764</td> <td> 0.078</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0062</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -1.014</td> <td> 0.311</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0029</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    1.017</td> <td> 0.309</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.009</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.0493</td> <td>    0.090</td> <td>   -0.545</td> <td> 0.586</td> <td>   -0.227</td> <td>    0.128</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0138</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -0.714</td> <td> 0.475</td> <td>   -0.052</td> <td>    0.024</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0692</td> <td>    0.059</td> <td>   -1.167</td> <td> 0.243</td> <td>   -0.185</td> <td>    0.047</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1119</td> <td>    0.056</td> <td>    1.993</td> <td> 0.046</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.222</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.0665</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    1.944</td> <td> 0.052</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.134</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0149</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    2.157</td> <td> 0.031</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0302</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>    2.953</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -0.7877</td> <td>    2.320</td> <td>   -0.340</td> <td> 0.734</td> <td>   -5.335</td> <td>    3.760</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.0143</td> <td>    0.024</td> <td>    0.587</td> <td> 0.557</td> <td>   -0.034</td> <td>    0.062</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0173</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -3.001</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>   -0.029</td> <td>   -0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0020</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.324</td> <td> 0.746</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>    0.014</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0006</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -0.226</td> <td> 0.821</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1832</td> <td>    0.091</td> <td>    2.024</td> <td> 0.043</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.361</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0019</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -0.098</td> <td> 0.922</td> <td>   -0.040</td> <td>    0.036</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.1134</td> <td>    0.059</td> <td>   -1.908</td> <td> 0.056</td> <td>   -0.230</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1283</td> <td>    0.056</td> <td>    2.297</td> <td> 0.022</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.238</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0288</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -0.854</td> <td> 0.393</td> <td>   -0.095</td> <td>    0.037</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0087</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>   -1.271</td> <td> 0.204</td> <td>   -0.022</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0040</td> <td>    0.010</td> <td>    0.390</td> <td> 0.697</td> <td>   -0.016</td> <td>    0.024</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>    0.2111</td> <td>    2.296</td> <td>    0.092</td> <td> 0.927</td> <td>   -4.288</td> <td>    4.711</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0068</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>   -0.291</td> <td> 0.771</td> <td>   -0.053</td> <td>    0.039</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0018</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.355</td> <td> 0.723</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0152</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>   -2.461</td> <td> 0.014</td> <td>   -0.027</td> <td>   -0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>    0.0013</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.506</td> <td> 0.613</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.1304</td> <td>    0.090</td> <td>    1.447</td> <td> 0.148</td> <td>   -0.046</td> <td>    0.307</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.0103</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    0.532</td> <td> 0.595</td> <td>   -0.028</td> <td>    0.048</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.1007</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>   -1.745</td> <td> 0.081</td> <td>   -0.214</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1300</td> <td>    0.054</td> <td>    2.388</td> <td> 0.017</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    0.237</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0057</td> <td>    0.032</td> <td>   -0.179</td> <td> 0.858</td> <td>   -0.068</td> <td>    0.057</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>    0.0103</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    1.657</td> <td> 0.098</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.022</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Det. terms outside the coint. relation & lagged endog. parameters for equation ffd_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n          <td></td>             <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0121</td> <td>    0.056</td> <td>    0.217</td> <td> 0.829</td> <td>   -0.098</td> <td>    0.122</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -1.6155</td> <td>   12.895</td> <td>   -0.125</td> <td> 0.900</td> <td>  -26.889</td> <td>   23.658</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0248</td> <td>    0.131</td> <td>   -0.190</td> <td> 0.850</td> <td>   -0.281</td> <td>    0.231</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.eth_log</th>        <td>   -0.0541</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>   -1.661</td> <td> 0.097</td> <td>   -0.118</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0539</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    1.594</td> <td> 0.111</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.120</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0340</td> <td>    0.017</td> <td>   -2.039</td> <td> 0.041</td> <td>   -0.067</td> <td>   -0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.1305</td> <td>    0.491</td> <td>   -0.266</td> <td> 0.791</td> <td>   -1.094</td> <td>    0.833</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.0994</td> <td>    0.107</td> <td>   -0.927</td> <td> 0.354</td> <td>   -0.309</td> <td>    0.111</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.4630</td> <td>    0.333</td> <td>    1.392</td> <td> 0.164</td> <td>   -0.189</td> <td>    1.115</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1372</td> <td>    0.302</td> <td>    0.454</td> <td> 0.650</td> <td>   -0.456</td> <td>    0.730</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.2927</td> <td>    0.191</td> <td>    1.532</td> <td> 0.126</td> <td>   -0.082</td> <td>    0.667</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L1.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.4408</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>  -12.379</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.511</td> <td>   -0.371</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0209</td> <td>    0.056</td> <td>    0.371</td> <td> 0.711</td> <td>   -0.090</td> <td>    0.132</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>  -25.5742</td> <td>   12.975</td> <td>   -1.971</td> <td> 0.049</td> <td>  -51.005</td> <td>   -0.144</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.2351</td> <td>    0.136</td> <td>   -1.727</td> <td> 0.084</td> <td>   -0.502</td> <td>    0.032</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0170</td> <td>    0.033</td> <td>    0.520</td> <td> 0.603</td> <td>   -0.047</td> <td>    0.081</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>   -0.0268</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -0.793</td> <td> 0.428</td> <td>   -0.093</td> <td>    0.039</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0313</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>   -1.966</td> <td> 0.049</td> <td>   -0.062</td> <td>-9.17e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>   -0.4784</td> <td>    0.503</td> <td>   -0.950</td> <td> 0.342</td> <td>   -1.465</td> <td>    0.508</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>   -0.2962</td> <td>    0.107</td> <td>   -2.764</td> <td> 0.006</td> <td>   -0.506</td> <td>   -0.086</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.gold_log</th>       <td>    0.0922</td> <td>    0.330</td> <td>    0.279</td> <td> 0.780</td> <td>   -0.555</td> <td>    0.739</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.1734</td> <td>    0.312</td> <td>    0.555</td> <td> 0.579</td> <td>   -0.439</td> <td>    0.786</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.sse_log</th>        <td>    0.1915</td> <td>    0.190</td> <td>    1.006</td> <td> 0.314</td> <td>   -0.182</td> <td>    0.565</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L2.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.2082</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>   -5.416</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.284</td> <td>   -0.133</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.btc_log</th>        <td>   -0.0792</td> <td>    0.057</td> <td>   -1.394</td> <td> 0.163</td> <td>   -0.191</td> <td>    0.032</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   30.7638</td> <td>   12.909</td> <td>    2.383</td> <td> 0.017</td> <td>    5.462</td> <td>   56.065</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>    0.1346</td> <td>    0.136</td> <td>    0.990</td> <td> 0.322</td> <td>   -0.132</td> <td>    0.401</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0697</td> <td>    0.032</td> <td>    2.171</td> <td> 0.030</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    0.133</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0433</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    1.272</td> <td> 0.203</td> <td>   -0.023</td> <td>    0.110</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0432</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>   -2.892</td> <td> 0.004</td> <td>   -0.072</td> <td>   -0.014</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.2058</td> <td>    0.504</td> <td>    0.408</td> <td> 0.683</td> <td>   -0.782</td> <td>    1.193</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.1824</td> <td>    0.108</td> <td>    1.695</td> <td> 0.090</td> <td>   -0.028</td> <td>    0.393</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.0823</td> <td>    0.331</td> <td>   -0.249</td> <td> 0.804</td> <td>   -0.731</td> <td>    0.566</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sp500_log</th>      <td>   -0.1045</td> <td>    0.311</td> <td>   -0.336</td> <td> 0.737</td> <td>   -0.713</td> <td>    0.504</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.0190</td> <td>    0.188</td> <td>   -0.101</td> <td> 0.919</td> <td>   -0.387</td> <td>    0.349</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L3.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>   -0.0950</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>   -2.499</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>   -0.169</td> <td>   -0.020</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.btc_log</th>        <td>    0.0152</td> <td>    0.057</td> <td>    0.269</td> <td> 0.788</td> <td>   -0.096</td> <td>    0.126</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.tot_btc_log</th>    <td>   -7.5146</td> <td>   12.773</td> <td>   -0.588</td> <td> 0.556</td> <td>  -32.549</td> <td>   17.519</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.hs_rate_log</th>    <td>   -0.0157</td> <td>    0.130</td> <td>   -0.120</td> <td> 0.904</td> <td>   -0.271</td> <td>    0.240</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.eth_log</th>        <td>    0.0285</td> <td>    0.028</td> <td>    1.019</td> <td> 0.308</td> <td>   -0.026</td> <td>    0.083</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ggl_trends_log</th> <td>    0.0724</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>    2.108</td> <td> 0.035</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    0.140</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.wiki_views_log</th> <td>   -0.0388</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>   -2.778</td> <td> 0.005</td> <td>   -0.066</td> <td>   -0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.usd_eur_log</th>    <td>    0.9794</td> <td>    0.501</td> <td>    1.953</td> <td> 0.051</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    1.962</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.oil_wti_log</th>    <td>    0.2001</td> <td>    0.108</td> <td>    1.852</td> <td> 0.064</td> <td>   -0.012</td> <td>    0.412</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.gold_log</th>       <td>   -0.3037</td> <td>    0.321</td> <td>   -0.946</td> <td> 0.344</td> <td>   -0.933</td> <td>    0.326</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sp500_log</th>      <td>    0.0868</td> <td>    0.303</td> <td>    0.286</td> <td> 0.775</td> <td>   -0.507</td> <td>    0.680</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.sse_log</th>        <td>   -0.2261</td> <td>    0.177</td> <td>   -1.277</td> <td> 0.202</td> <td>   -0.573</td> <td>    0.121</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>L4.ffd_rate_log</th>   <td>-4.127e-05</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td> 0.999</td> <td>   -0.068</td> <td>    0.068</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0379</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>   -3.577</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.059</td> <td>   -0.017</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>   -0.0107</td> <td>    0.034</td> <td>   -0.313</td> <td> 0.754</td> <td>   -0.077</td> <td>    0.056</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>    0.0132</td> <td>    0.012</td> <td>    1.067</td> <td> 0.286</td> <td>   -0.011</td> <td>    0.038</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>    0.0046</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    1.470</td> <td> 0.142</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0318</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    2.955</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    0.053</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.0061</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>   -0.690</td> <td> 0.490</td> <td>   -0.024</td> <td>    0.011</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation tot_btc_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>-2.464e-05</td> <td> 4.37e-05</td> <td>   -0.564</td> <td> 0.573</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>  6.1e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0011</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    7.864</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td> -4.59e-05</td> <td> 5.12e-05</td> <td>   -0.897</td> <td> 0.370</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td> 5.44e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>-1.512e-05</td> <td> 1.28e-05</td> <td>   -1.182</td> <td> 0.237</td> <td>-4.02e-05</td> <td> 9.96e-06</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0001</td> <td> 4.44e-05</td> <td>    3.220</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td> 5.59e-05</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.0002</td> <td> 3.66e-05</td> <td>   -4.244</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>-8.37e-05</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation hs_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0053</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.277</td> <td> 0.202</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.013</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0462</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    3.453</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>    0.020</td> <td>    0.072</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.0075</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -1.531</td> <td> 0.126</td> <td>   -0.017</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0003</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.233</td> <td> 0.816</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0056</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    1.328</td> <td> 0.184</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.014</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.0071</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -2.045</td> <td> 0.041</td> <td>   -0.014</td> <td>   -0.000</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation eth_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0106</td> <td>    0.018</td> <td>    0.590</td> <td> 0.555</td> <td>   -0.025</td> <td>    0.046</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0215</td> <td>    0.058</td> <td>    0.373</td> <td> 0.709</td> <td>   -0.091</td> <td>    0.134</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.0131</td> <td>    0.021</td> <td>   -0.625</td> <td> 0.532</td> <td>   -0.054</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0186</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -3.536</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.029</td> <td>   -0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0081</td> <td>    0.018</td> <td>    0.445</td> <td> 0.656</td> <td>   -0.028</td> <td>    0.044</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0231</td> <td>    0.015</td> <td>    1.536</td> <td> 0.124</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>    0.053</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ggl_trends_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0684</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>    4.203</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.036</td> <td>    0.100</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>   -0.1318</td> <td>    0.052</td> <td>   -2.525</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>   -0.234</td> <td>   -0.030</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.0605</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>   -3.179</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>   -0.098</td> <td>   -0.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0132</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -2.781</td> <td> 0.005</td> <td>   -0.023</td> <td>   -0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>   -0.0838</td> <td>    0.017</td> <td>   -5.068</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.116</td> <td>   -0.051</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0231</td> <td>    0.014</td> <td>    1.691</td> <td> 0.091</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation wiki_views_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0124</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>   -0.328</td> <td> 0.743</td> <td>   -0.086</td> <td>    0.062</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.5255</td> <td>    0.121</td> <td>    4.336</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.288</td> <td>    0.763</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.1486</td> <td>    0.044</td> <td>   -3.361</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>   -0.235</td> <td>   -0.062</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>    0.0284</td> <td>    0.011</td> <td>    2.567</td> <td> 0.010</td> <td>    0.007</td> <td>    0.050</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.1970</td> <td>    0.038</td> <td>    5.133</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.122</td> <td>    0.272</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.2193</td> <td>    0.032</td> <td>   -6.926</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -0.281</td> <td>   -0.157</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation usd_eur_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>-8.663e-06</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td> 0.994</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>   -0.0024</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>   -0.661</td> <td> 0.509</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.0011</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.863</td> <td> 0.388</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>    0.0004</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>    1.198</td> <td> 0.231</td> <td>   -0.000</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0009</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.819</td> <td> 0.413</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.0003</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.298</td> <td> 0.766</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation oil_wti_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0029</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -0.564</td> <td> 0.572</td> <td>   -0.013</td> <td>    0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>   -0.0401</td> <td>    0.017</td> <td>   -2.398</td> <td> 0.016</td> <td>   -0.073</td> <td>   -0.007</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>    0.0038</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    0.625</td> <td> 0.532</td> <td>   -0.008</td> <td>    0.016</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0018</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -1.209</td> <td> 0.227</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>   -0.0080</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>   -1.516</td> <td> 0.129</td> <td>   -0.018</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0100</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    2.296</td> <td> 0.022</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation gold_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0046</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    2.694</td> <td> 0.007</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0149</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    2.727</td> <td> 0.006</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.026</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>   -0.0061</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -3.051</td> <td> 0.002</td> <td>   -0.010</td> <td>   -0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0008</td> <td>    0.000</td> <td>   -1.680</td> <td> 0.093</td> <td>   -0.002</td> <td>    0.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    1.411</td> <td> 0.158</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>   -0.0036</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -2.507</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>   -0.006</td> <td>   -0.001</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation sp500_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0010</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.505</td> <td> 0.614</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0160</td> <td>    0.006</td> <td>    2.623</td> <td> 0.009</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.028</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>    0.0080</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    3.619</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.004</td> <td>    0.012</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0002</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -0.294</td> <td> 0.769</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>   -0.0003</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>   -0.139</td> <td> 0.889</td> <td>   -0.004</td> <td>    0.004</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0023</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    1.453</td> <td> 0.146</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.005</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation sse_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>   -0.0035</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>   -1.221</td> <td> 0.222</td> <td>   -0.009</td> <td>    0.002</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0024</td> <td>    0.009</td> <td>    0.264</td> <td> 0.792</td> <td>   -0.016</td> <td>    0.020</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>    0.0016</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    0.466</td> <td> 0.641</td> <td>   -0.005</td> <td>    0.008</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>   -0.0017</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>   -2.063</td> <td> 0.039</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>-8.59e-05</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>    0.0044</td> <td>    0.003</td> <td>    1.518</td> <td> 0.129</td> <td>   -0.001</td> <td>    0.010</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0015</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.615</td> <td> 0.539</td> <td>   -0.003</td> <td>    0.006</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Loading coefficients (alpha) for equation ffd_rate_log</caption>\n<tr>\n   <td></td>      <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec1</th> <td>    0.0011</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>    0.067</td> <td> 0.947</td> <td>   -0.030</td> <td>    0.032</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec2</th> <td>    0.0052</td> <td>    0.051</td> <td>    0.102</td> <td> 0.918</td> <td>   -0.094</td> <td>    0.105</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec3</th> <td>    0.0598</td> <td>    0.019</td> <td>    3.221</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>    0.023</td> <td>    0.096</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec4</th> <td>    0.0097</td> <td>    0.005</td> <td>    2.080</td> <td> 0.037</td> <td>    0.001</td> <td>    0.019</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec5</th> <td>   -0.0282</td> <td>    0.016</td> <td>   -1.749</td> <td> 0.080</td> <td>   -0.060</td> <td>    0.003</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>ec6</th> <td>    0.0284</td> <td>    0.013</td> <td>    2.135</td> <td> 0.033</td> <td>    0.002</td> <td>    0.054</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 1</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td>-5.477e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-5.48e-16</td> <td>-5.48e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td> 7.382e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 7.38e-17</td> <td> 7.38e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td>-1.667e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-1.67e-17</td> <td>-1.67e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td>  2.43e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.43e-17</td> <td> 2.43e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>-6.826e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-6.83e-17</td> <td>-6.83e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>  -16.0754</td> <td>    1.756</td> <td>   -9.155</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  -19.517</td> <td>  -12.634</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>    1.8940</td> <td>    0.628</td> <td>    3.015</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>    0.663</td> <td>    3.125</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>    6.6093</td> <td>    2.634</td> <td>    2.509</td> <td> 0.012</td> <td>    1.447</td> <td>   11.772</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>   -7.8263</td> <td>    6.748</td> <td>   -1.160</td> <td> 0.246</td> <td>  -21.052</td> <td>    5.399</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>   -0.1407</td> <td>    1.673</td> <td>   -0.084</td> <td> 0.933</td> <td>   -3.420</td> <td>    3.139</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>    0.3692</td> <td>    4.524</td> <td>    0.082</td> <td> 0.935</td> <td>   -8.497</td> <td>    9.236</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 2</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td>-4.732e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-4.73e-17</td> <td>-4.73e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td>-1.916e-18</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-1.92e-18</td> <td>-1.92e-18</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td> 2.504e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  2.5e-17</td> <td>  2.5e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td> 3.836e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 3.84e-17</td> <td> 3.84e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>-2.237e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-2.24e-17</td> <td>-2.24e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>    1.9236</td> <td>    0.561</td> <td>    3.430</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>    0.824</td> <td>    3.023</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>   -0.6952</td> <td>    0.201</td> <td>   -3.465</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>   -1.088</td> <td>   -0.302</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>   -2.7021</td> <td>    0.841</td> <td>   -3.212</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>   -4.351</td> <td>   -1.053</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>    0.2536</td> <td>    2.155</td> <td>    0.118</td> <td> 0.906</td> <td>   -3.971</td> <td>    4.478</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>    0.4715</td> <td>    0.535</td> <td>    0.882</td> <td> 0.378</td> <td>   -0.576</td> <td>    1.519</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>   -0.1460</td> <td>    1.445</td> <td>   -0.101</td> <td> 0.920</td> <td>   -2.978</td> <td>    2.686</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 3</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td> 2.262e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.26e-16</td> <td> 2.26e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td> 1.043e-15</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 1.04e-15</td> <td> 1.04e-15</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td> 2.092e-18</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.09e-18</td> <td> 2.09e-18</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td>-7.213e-18</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-7.21e-18</td> <td>-7.21e-18</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>-1.135e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-1.14e-16</td> <td>-1.14e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>   -5.1047</td> <td>    0.914</td> <td>   -5.583</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -6.897</td> <td>   -3.313</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>    3.0639</td> <td>    0.327</td> <td>    9.366</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    2.423</td> <td>    3.705</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>    7.9699</td> <td>    1.372</td> <td>    5.810</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    5.281</td> <td>   10.658</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>  -11.2072</td> <td>    3.514</td> <td>   -3.189</td> <td> 0.001</td> <td>  -18.095</td> <td>   -4.320</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>    0.2101</td> <td>    0.871</td> <td>    0.241</td> <td> 0.809</td> <td>   -1.498</td> <td>    1.918</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>   -0.2863</td> <td>    2.356</td> <td>   -0.122</td> <td> 0.903</td> <td>   -4.904</td> <td>    4.331</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 4</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td>-3.653e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-3.65e-16</td> <td>-3.65e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td>-5.514e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-5.51e-16</td> <td>-5.51e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td>-3.429e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-3.43e-16</td> <td>-3.43e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td> 3.886e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 3.89e-16</td> <td> 3.89e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>-3.865e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-3.86e-16</td> <td>-3.86e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>  -18.7557</td> <td>    1.278</td> <td>  -14.674</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  -21.261</td> <td>  -16.251</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>   -6.2366</td> <td>    0.457</td> <td>  -13.639</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -7.133</td> <td>   -5.340</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>  -18.5105</td> <td>    1.917</td> <td>   -9.654</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  -22.268</td> <td>  -14.753</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>   11.4560</td> <td>    4.912</td> <td>    2.332</td> <td> 0.020</td> <td>    1.828</td> <td>   21.083</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>    8.3768</td> <td>    1.218</td> <td>    6.877</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    5.989</td> <td>   10.764</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>   -1.9935</td> <td>    3.293</td> <td>   -0.605</td> <td> 0.545</td> <td>   -8.448</td> <td>    4.461</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 5</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td>   3.5e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  3.5e-17</td> <td>  3.5e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td> 3.229e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 3.23e-16</td> <td> 3.23e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td> 2.255e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.26e-16</td> <td> 2.26e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td>-2.363e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-2.36e-17</td> <td>-2.36e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>-6.623e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-6.62e-17</td> <td>-6.62e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>  -15.2629</td> <td>    0.858</td> <td>  -17.782</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>  -16.945</td> <td>  -13.581</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>    0.9231</td> <td>    0.307</td> <td>    3.006</td> <td> 0.003</td> <td>    0.321</td> <td>    1.525</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>    4.6515</td> <td>    1.288</td> <td>    3.613</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    2.128</td> <td>    7.175</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>   -3.6282</td> <td>    3.299</td> <td>   -1.100</td> <td> 0.271</td> <td>  -10.094</td> <td>    2.837</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>   -1.2250</td> <td>    0.818</td> <td>   -1.498</td> <td> 0.134</td> <td>   -2.828</td> <td>    0.378</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>    0.2882</td> <td>    2.211</td> <td>    0.130</td> <td> 0.896</td> <td>   -4.046</td> <td>    4.623</td>\n</tr>\n</table>\n<table class=\"simpletable\">\n<caption>Cointegration relations for loading-coefficients-column 6</caption>\n<tr>\n     <td></td>        <th>coef</th>     <th>std err</th>      <th>z</th>      <th>P>|z|</th>  <th>[0.025</th>    <th>0.975]</th>  \n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.1</th>  <td>-2.405e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> -2.4e-16</td> <td> -2.4e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.2</th>  <td>-2.746e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>-2.75e-16</td> <td>-2.75e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.3</th>  <td> 1.541e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 1.54e-16</td> <td> 1.54e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.4</th>  <td>  2.88e-17</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 2.88e-17</td> <td> 2.88e-17</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.5</th>  <td> 1.079e-16</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td> 1.08e-16</td> <td> 1.08e-16</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.6</th>  <td>    1.0000</td> <td>        0</td> <td>        0</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    1.000</td> <td>    1.000</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.7</th>  <td>   -7.9889</td> <td>    0.187</td> <td>  -42.833</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -8.354</td> <td>   -7.623</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.8</th>  <td>   -4.6060</td> <td>    0.067</td> <td>  -69.028</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -4.737</td> <td>   -4.475</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.9</th>  <td>   -7.9717</td> <td>    0.280</td> <td>  -28.492</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>   -8.520</td> <td>   -7.423</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.10</th> <td>    7.5963</td> <td>    0.717</td> <td>   10.598</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    6.191</td> <td>    9.001</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.11</th> <td>    0.9931</td> <td>    0.178</td> <td>    5.587</td> <td> 0.000</td> <td>    0.645</td> <td>    1.341</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n  <th>beta.12</th> <td>   -0.5955</td> <td>    0.481</td> <td>   -1.239</td> <td> 0.215</td> <td>   -1.537</td> <td>    0.346</td>\n</tr>\n</table>"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result",
     "execution_count": 39
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# obtain vecm(5-1) for df_train_log and coint_rank 6\n",
    "df_vecm = get_vecm_model(df_train_log,k_ar_diff=4,coint_rank=6,det='nc')\n",
    "df_vecm.summary()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_13_vecm_coeffs.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_13_vecm_coeffs.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_14_vecm_alpha1.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_14_vecm_alpha1.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# read in and plot from textfile as latex: 'M4_tab_15_vecm_beta1.txt'\n",
    "var_coeffs_aslatex_from_txt('M4_tab_15_vecm_beta1.txt')\n",
    "# -> Copy latex output and input in overleaf"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# IRF: impulse response of df_vecm\n",
    "df_vecm_irf = df_vecm.irf(15)\n",
    "fig_12 = df_vecm_irf.plot(orth=False, response='btc_log', figsize=(8,15),subplot_params={'fontsize' : 9})\n",
    "fig_12.tight_layout()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# save fig_12\n",
    "fig_12.savefig(save_plot_to+'M4_fig_12.svg',format='svg',bbox_inches='tight',pad_inches = 0)"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false,
    "pycharm": {
     "name": "#%%\n",
     "is_executing": false
    }
   }
  }
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