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<title>Kevin Boone: Does it matter if amateur radio dies out?</title>
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<h1>Does it matter if amateur radio dies out?</h1>
<p>
<img class="article-top-image" src="img/mic.png"
alt="microphone"/>
This might seem an odd question to somebody who thinks that
amateur radio has already died out -- that it's gone the way
of Etch-a-Sketch, cigarette cards, and lava lamps. It might
seem ever odder to a person who's never even heard of
amateur radio -- and there many people who have not.
In fact, amateur radio retains a stalwart -- but ageing -- following, and new
digital methods of radio communication
have attracted some younger enthusiasts.
</p>
<p>
For the record, amateur radio is the practice of using simple,
ideally home-made radio equipment, to carry out short conversations
with other enthusiasts who may be geographically distant. These
conversations may be voice or data or still even -- amazingly -- Morse code.
In most countries certain radio wavebands are set aside for amateur
use, and to transmit on them you need a licence, which is often
issued on passing an exam.
</p>
<p>
Although the
fact of amateur radio's decline is incontestable, the reasons
are endlessly debated.
The most superficially credible explanation is that so many
superior communication technologies are available.
However, amateur radio was rarely a practical, robust
method of communication, and wasn't expected to be.
</p>
<img src="img/bear_radio_3.jpg" align="left" width="300px"
style="margin:20px"/>
<p>
Another possible explanation is the degradation in operating
conditions. There are natural and man-made causes for this.
Among the natural causes are the cyclic variation in sunspot
activity, which causes changes in the composition of the
ionosphere. Peaks in sunspot activity have been
getting progressively smaller since the 1960s, and current predictions
are that this trend will continue. In fact, had sunspot
activity been as unfavourable as it is now, when Marconi attempted his first
transatlantic transmissions in 1901, radio might never
have taken off at all.
</p>
<p>
Man-made causes of degraded operating conditions include the
electrical interference with which we now
fill our world -- power-line networking equipment is a particular
bugbear of the radio enthusiast.
</p>
<p>
Another justification that is frequently offered is that amateur radio
is unfashionable or unexciting -- and it isn't just young people
saying this. Maybe this is true but, if it is, it's hardly
a new perception. When Galton and Simpson wrote <i>The Radio Ham</i>
for television back in 1961, amateur radio enthusiasts were
already seen as figures of fun -- stuffy, social misfits,
tapping out Morse code in dark attic rooms.
Despite this attitude, interest in amateur radio was then at an all-time
peak:
operating conditions were favourable, there were no competing
low-cost methods of long-distance communication, and the world
had not yet succumbed to RF interference. A poor
public image did not discourage enthusiasts.
Still, there is a culture surrounding
amateur radio that many find unappealing. Peculiar features of
this culture include referring to people by
their call-signs rather than their names, and using a bunch of
abbreviations from the days of Morse code.
The exam-preparation booklet
<a href="https://rsgb.org/main/blog/publications/books-extra/2011/08/10/foundation-licence-now/" target="_blank">Foundation Licence Now</a>, endorsed
by the Radio Society of Great Britain (and now mercifully out of print)
contained a bunch of patronizing cartoons, in which every single
character, with no exceptions, was male. While every amateur radio
enthusiast I know is a decent fellow, it's a sad fact that he's,
well, a fellow. If there's any interest in the subject
among the other half of the
human race, it's scarcely acknowledged.
</p>
<p>
Whatever the explanation, amateur radio is dying.
It's even dying in Japan,
which historically had the greatest proportion of licensed operators
in the world. Since the mid-90s, the number of operators in Japan
has fallen by about 50%.
</p>
<p>
Should we be concerned by any of this? Most of us aren't overly concerned
by the decline in enthusiasm for skateboarding or Trivial Pursuit
parties. Why should amateur radio be any different?
In fact, leaving aside the (quite legitimate) concerns of its enthusiasts,
the continued importance of amateur radio comes down to
three questions:
</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>
Does it matter if we lose a practical means of communication?
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
It there any widespread benefit if the part of the RF
spectrum currently allocated
to amateur radio is re-used for something else?
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Does it matter if the technical skills inherent in amateur radio are
lost from society?
</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2>A practical means of communication?</h2>
<p>
On the one hand, the life-saving
role played by amateur radio operators in a number of
disaster situations cannot be denied. As a means of emergency
communication, the value proposition of amateur radio is
that it is not dependent on infrastructure, or even on mains power.
A single car battery will run a transceiver at decent power levels for
some hours. Amateur radio operators are, on the whole, pretty skilled
at working around difficult operating conditions. Unfortunately,
mainstream technologies
like cellular phones and Internet services are dependent on an extensive,
fragile infrastructure, that can often fail in floods
or strong winds. In the UK, and probably elsewhere,
an amateur radio licence carries with it the obligation to make
oneself available for emergency communications if requested.
</p>
<img src="img/bear_radio_2.jpg" align="right" width="300px"
style="margin:20px"/>
<p>
On the other hand, it's hard to determine with any confidence exactly
how often amateur radio plays a crucial role in disaster
relief. That it <i>sometimes</i> does, cannot be denied. But how often? It's
hard to get reliable information.
</p>
<p>
The problem with the 'no infrastructure' proposition is that it
isn't really true. It's undeniable that an amateur radio
operator using a simple HF (typically about 7-20 MHz) transceiver
in Little Crumbling, England can sometimes talk to another in Dogpatch, Iowa
using only simple, home-made equipment.
But these enthusiasts may not be able to talk to others in the next
town, because of the vagaries of HF wave propagation. To get robust,
reliable
point-to-point communication, you need a network of repeaters, and
this amounts to infrastructure, of a sort. These repeaters are going
to be subject to the same catastrophes that knock out mainstream
communications systems.
</p>
<p>
There's also a suspicion -- at least in the UK -- that sometimes
radio volunteers can actually interfere with emergency response,
rather than assisting. That's not because of any lack of technical skill, but
a result of inadequate understanding of the way that mainstream
services are coordinated. Even the various professional emergency
services don't always work well together.
</p>
<p>
Nevertheless, in the UK and, I suspect elsewhere, there is a long-standing
tradition of unpaid volunteers doing life-saving work that many
would argue should be the province of governmental agencies.
We have volunteer firefighters, volunteer ambulance drivers,
volunteer first-aiders, volunteer lifeboat crews, and so on.
While these life-saving services could be centrally
funded and managed, the reality is that often they are not --
volunteers do a crucial, and often dangerous, job, as well
as professionals.
An amateur
radio emergency service doesn't cost the taxpayer anything, and
might just safe lives.
</p>
<h2>A waste of spectrum?</h2>
<p>
The electromagnetic spectrum is a crowded place these days.
Amateur radio occupies a tiny sliver of each of the regular bands,
often shared with other users. The amateur part of the spectrum
is always under threat from commercial and military users and,
the less activity there is in amateur radio, the more pressing that
threat becomes.
</p>
<p>
Are there better uses for the
electromagnetic spectrum than amateur radio?
The part of the spectrum that is most contested, I think, is that
part which is most used for low-power, line-of-sight communication.
The VHF 2m (~140 MHz) band is widely used in aviation and marine
communication, as well as by amateur radio operators. Amateur
radio could see itself muscled out of this band without
a strong presence and vocal representation.
At the same time, the lower-frequency bands are
becoming increasingly unusable because of interference.
</p>
<p>
Potentially the solution here is to make better use of the limited
spectrum -- both by amateur radio operators and everybody else.
Most VHF communication is still analogue, and hugely inefficient in
its use of bandwidth. Analogue voice communication amounts
to the transmission of silence a lot of the time.
Amateur radio has already risen to this challenge, to some extent,
with digital modes of operation multiplexing large numbers of
conversations into tiny frequency ranges. The technology for doing this
is very interesting and could well have wider application.
</p>
<img src="img/bear_radio_1.jpg" align="left" width="300px"
style="margin:20px"/>
<p>
In the end, squeezing amateur radio out of the spectrum would be
like taking away the bicycle lane on a highway -- bad for cyclists,
with very little benefit for anybody else. It would be a very
short-term, limited solution to a problem that needs a global,
coordinated response. But where have we heard that before?
</p>
<h2>Deskilling and disempowering?</h2>
<p>
One of
the founding justifications for a waveband allocation for
amateur radio was that
it would provide a means for the development of technical
skills in the general community. It was thought to be
beneficial to society as a whole
if the average level of technical knowledge was raised.
If amateur radio dies, will society lose a pool of skilled
technical experts? That's a difficult question to answer.
</p>
<p>
There's no doubt that amateur radio operation can, in some
scenarios, require a high level of technical skill. Some enthusiasts
do still build, and sometimes design, their own equipment. Many
will build their own antennas and ancillary equipment. To operate
the HF bands successfully, you need to know about the physics
of the ionosphere and the way it affects RF wave propagation
-- or, at least, know how to find somebody who does.
</p>
<p>
However, a lot of this skill and knowledge, it seems to me,
falls into the 'arcane' category. Certainly we need a society
where everybody knows what an amp is, and perhaps even how a transistor
works. But how great a loss would it be if nobody knew how
to wind a balun or calibrate a VFO (don't even ask)?
</p>
<p>
I tend to have a somewhat alarmist view of these things. It concerns
me greatly, for example, that today's computer science graduates
don't know how a logic gate works. You're never going to need that
knowledge to write a web page or even code a transaction processing
system; but the next wave of technological advance will come,
if it comes at all, from people who understand fundamentals.
I don't think <i>everybody</i> needs to know this stuff, but
there needs to be a general respect for people who do. We really
don't want to get into a situation where it is regarded as aberrant
to take an interest in the deep complexities of technology.
</p>
<p>
For all that, I'm far from convinced that most amateur radio
enthusiasts have a deep interest in technology. If you look in the
advertising pages of amateur radio publications, you'll see a lot
of advertisements for transceivers costing thousands of pounds,
and very little for components, tools, or test equipment. It
increasingly looks as if amateur radio is a way for wealthy,
middle-aged folks to dispose of their surplus income.
I not at all sure that there are enough amateur
radio enthusiasts with a technological interest,
to make a significant difference to the average
level of knowledge in society.
</p>
<h2>Summary</h2>
<p>
So does it matter if amateur radio dies out? It matters to established
enthusiasts,
many of whom expected to be the respected 'elmers' (mentors) of
the next generation of operators. These folks have found to their
chagrin that, in fact, there is no next generation.
</p>
<p>
I remain optimistic that young people with an interest in technology
will find an outlet for it. It probably won't be in radio -- not,
at least, in amateur radio as we currently understand it. It
might be tinkering with MicroBits or hacking up video games
or something that hasn't been invented yet. I've never been
convinced that a person with no overt interest in engineering
could be enticed into becoming an amateur radio operator, by
the prospect of carrying on a stuttering conversation about
antenna sizes with a complete stranger in another country, anyway.
</p>
<p>
I've also never been convinced that the existence of amateur
radio has made an interest in technology seem less geeky and
inaccessible. If it was was perceived as a nerdy back
in Tony Hancock's day, how much more must it seem so now?
Without knowing the first thing about physics or engineering,
anybody can communicate around the world, as casually as
shouting across the room.
</p>
<p>
It seems to me that the main interest in amateur radio these
days is among 'prepper' types -- people who are planning for the
end of civilization. I can see how a means of wide-area communication
that is not dependent on an established infrastructure could
be of use in such a scenario. I don't know how much comfort
it will be, having an intermittent, noisy conversation
with somebody in, say, Latvia, when we're huddled around a smoky
campfire, gnawing on the bones of our pets.
</p>
<p>
While I accept that the end of civilization is a notional possibility
-- and Covid has certainly increased its probability --
I don't see how planning for it constitutes a good reason to
maintain interest in amateur radio, if its time has passed. It seems
to me that, if there is a good reason to keep amateur radio alive, it is
because of its potential for emergency communications.
While that potential certainly exists, I'm far from certain that it
is exercised very often, or even that effectively.
</p>
<p>
If we need a technical pastime that will appeal to young
people -- and I'm not sure they won't find one on their own -- it
needs to be something makes some kind of sense in the modern world.
</p>
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