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What has now appeared is that the mathematical concept of probability is, in most cases, inadequate to express our mental confidence or diffidence in making such inferences, and that the mathematical quantity which appears to be appropriate for measuring our order of preference among different possible populations does not in fact obey the laws of probability. To distinguish it from probability, I have used the term "Likelihood" to designate this quantity*; since both the words "likelihood" and "probability" are loosely used in common speech to cover both kinds of relationship.
In the
Likelihood-Function
notebook there is a short aside on Fisher's distinguishing and use of likelihood in a different manner from probability. This should be complimented and extended by the following quote from Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research WorkersThis quote was first made known to me by browsing @rajatthomas's lecture "On Computational and Probabilistic Inference" from the 2019 Advanced Workshop on Accelerating the Search for Dark Matter with Machine Learning.
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