Jens von Bergmann Last updated at 21 July, 2022 - 18:07
This notebook shows the confirmed COVID cases for Canadian provinces. The code for this notebook is available for anyone to adapt and use for their own purposes.
The Atlantic provinces have pursued very different COVID-19 strategies from the other provinces and have seen very different outcomes. The 7-day incidence, that is the cumulative number of cases over the past 7 days per 100,000 population, has been used by many jurisdictions as a key metric to trigger policy interventions.
For better comparison we can plot the Atlantic provinces and the other provinces on different scales.
Sometimes it is useful to get a clearer view on trend lines. Rolling 7-day sums (like above) or rolling averages (as often emplyed) are a problematic way to represent trend lines as the lag actual trends by 3 days.
A fairly simple trend line model like a (multiplicative) STL decomposition can extract cleaner trend lines that also cover the most recent 3 days of data, at the expense of a bit of added volatility at the very end of the trend line where the trend line may shift slightly when new data comes in.
