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AFg6K7h4fhy2/README.md

Aurora Borealis, Frederic Edwin Church (1826–1900)

An 1865 oil on canvas painting called Aurora Borealis by Frederic Edwin Church (1826–1900).

That artwork is the first visage I encounter upon visiting GitHub is by design — I very much am motivated beautiful works of art. I rotate artworks not more than twice monthly.

Context

I consider myself a data scientist.

Data Scientist: Person who is better at statistics than any software engineer and better software engineering than any statistician.

—Josh Wills

I perceive my skills as being more aligned with this variant of the above quote:

Data Scientist: Person who is worse at statistics than any statistician and worse at software engineering than any software engineer.

I work for the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) [March 2023-Present].

Communication

I operate by 1

Crocker's Rules

Declaring yourself to be operating by "Crocker's Rules" means that other people are allowed to optimize their messages for information, not for being nice to you. Crocker's Rules means that you have accepted full responsibility for the operation of your own mind - if you're offended, it's your fault. Anyone is allowed to call you a moron and claim to be doing you a favor. (Which, in point of fact, they would be. One of the big problems with this culture is that everyone's afraid to tell you you're wrong, or they think they have to dance around it.) Two people using Crocker's Rules should be able to communicate all relevant information in the minimum amount of time, without paraphrasing or social formatting. Obviously, don't declare yourself to be operating by Crocker's Rules unless you have that kind of mental discipline.

Note that Crocker's Rules does not mean you can insult people; it means that other people don't have to worry about whether they are insulting you. Crocker's Rules are a discipline, not a privilege. Furthermore, taking advantage of Crocker's Rules does not imply reciprocity. How could it? Crocker's Rules are something you do for yourself, to maximize information received - not something you grit your teeth over and do as a favor.

"Crocker's Rules" are named after Lee Daniel Crocker.

Any feedback is appreciated. If you have something to critique about me or my work or something to tell me, please make an issue here or in the specific repository you have comments on. I can also be contacted at (my profile name) (at) (proton) (dot) (me). As far as roasts go, this AI bot critiqued any earlier version of my profile...which I am taking as feedback:

A Roasting Of My Profile

Well, well, well, if it isn't the enigma of GitHub! "upx3—TM (CFA)"? Is that a name or a failed CAPTCHA test? With a bio as bland as plain toast and just a few followers, it seems like you're trying to forecast your own social life—spoiler alert: it's not looking good.

You’re a Data Scientist at the CDC, yet the only thing your repositories seem to be good at is collecting dust. I see you’ve dabbled in Python, JAX, and NumPyro; too bad your coding skills are hiding away like your personality. And what’s with the fascination with paleontology and global catastrophic risk? Are you trying to model not just diseases but your own social extinction?

Your readme looks more like an art critique than a professional introduction. Maybe instead of allocating your time to creating personal templates that even you can’t be bothered to star, you could take a moment to autocorrect your ambition into something a little less… unfocused?

But hey, kudos for the “good health” wishes at the end—because clearly, you have plenty of time to ponder life choices while your code sits idle. Here’s hoping your next repo has as much personality as the artwork you’re so proud of.

Repositories

Find below repositories I am devoting some time to (note: these may be in their early stages of development; also, these may overlap with my pinned repositories):

Repositories
Repository   Description
paleo-utils Tools for the author to facilitate various tasks in paleontological work, including specimen labels, systematics organization, measurement grids, and imaging utilities.
genetic-evolution-tournament The Genetic Evolution Tournament (GET) is a Metaculus human judgment forecasting tournament that aims to generate forecasts and scenario regarding the use of DNA and reproductive technologies on humans for treatment and enhancement.
forecasttools-py A Python package for common pre- and post-processing operations done by CFA Predict for short term forecasting, nowcasting, and scenario modeling.

Varia

Some Quotes

Organisms are born; man is made.

J. D. Bernal, 1929

...

If some future organisms found the remains of humans only as fossils, it would not be astonished. It would place them with the monkeys; its peculiarity would only be in its bipedal gait, but bipedalism would have already been recognized as a common form of locomotion. The abnormally swollen, bubbled-up brain-capsule might draw attention; but it would hardly be evident from physiology alone that this was the species that transformed the planet in a way unlike any other in the billions of years of life's history.

—Adolf Remane, 1971

...

If you can't explain something simply, you don't understand it well enough.

—Albert Einstein

Some Selected Wisdom

From The Art Of Worldly Wisdom (1653) by Baltasar Gracian; translated (1892) by Joseph Jacobs. The below consists of a sample of those entries the author believes most important to his work.

xi Cultivate those who can teach you.

Let friendly intercourse be a school of knowledge, and culture be taught through conversation: thus you make your friends your teachers and mingle the pleasures of conversation with the advantages of instruction. Sensible persons thus enjoy alternating pleasures: they reap applause for what they say, and gain instruction from what they hear. We are always attracted to others by our own interest, but in this case it is of a higher kind. Wise men frequent the houses of great noblemen not because they are temples of vanity, but as theatres of good breeding. There be gentlemen who have the credit of worldly wisdom, because they are not only themselves oracles of all nobleness by their example and their behaviour, but those who surround them form a well-bred academy of worldly wisdom of the best and noblest kind.

...

xii Nature and Art:

material and workmanship. There is no beauty unadorned and no excellence that would not become barbaric if it were not supported by artifice: this remedies the evil and improves the good. Nature scarcely ever gives us the very best; for that we must have recourse to art. Without this the best of natural dispositions is uncultured, and half is lacking to any excellence if training is absent. Everyone has something unpolished without artificial training, and every kind of excellence needs some polish.

...

xviii Application and Ability.

There is no attaining eminence without both, and where they unite there is the greatest eminence. Mediocrity obtains more with application than superiority without it. Work is the price which is paid for reputation. What costs little is little worth. Even for the highest posts it is only in some cases application that is wanting, rarely the talent. To prefer moderate success in great things than eminence in a humble post has the excuse of a generous mind, but not so to be content with humble mediocrity when you could shine among the highest. Thus nature and art are both needed, and application sets on them the seal.

...

xxiv Keep the Imagination under Control,

sometimes correcting, sometimes assisting it. For it is all-important for our happiness, and even sets the reason right. It can tyrannise, and is not content with looking on, but influences and even often dominates life, causing it to be happy or burdensome according to the folly to which it leads. For it makes us either contented or discontented with ourselves. Before some it continually holds up the penalties of action, and becomes the mortifying lash of these fools. To others it promises happiness and adventure with blissful delusion. It can do all this unless the most prudent self-control keeps it in subjection.

...

xxxv Think over Things, most over the most Important.

All fools come to grief from want of thought. They never see even the half of things, and as they do not observe their own loss or gain, still less do they apply any diligence to them. Some make much of what imports little and little of much, always weighing in the wrong scale. Many never lose their common sense because they have none to lose. There are matters which should be observed with the closest attention of the mind, and thenceforth kept in its lowest depths. The wise man thinks over everything, but with a difference, most profoundly where there is some profound difficulty, and thinks that perhaps there is more in it than he thinks. Thus his comprehension extends as far as his apprehension.

...

xlix Observation and Judgment.

A man with these rules things, not they him. He sounds at once the profoundest depths; he is a phrenologist by means of physiognomy. On seeing a person he understands him and judges of his inmost nature. From a few observations he deciphers the most hidden recesses of his nature. Keen observation, subtle insight, judicious inference: with these he discovers, notices, grasps, and comprehends everything.

...

liii Diligent and Intelligent.

Diligence promptly executes what intelligence slowly excogitates. Hurry is the failing of fools; they know not the crucial point and set to work without preparation. On the other hand, the wise more often fail from procrastination; foresight begets deliberation, and remiss action often nullifies prompt judgment. Celerity is the mother of good fortune. He has done much who leaves nothing over till tomorrow. Festina lente is a royal motto.

...

lvii Slow and Sure.

Early enough if well. Quickly done can be quickly undone. To last an eternity requires an eternity of preparation. Only excellence counts; only achievement endures. Profound intelligence is the only foundation for immortality. Worth much costs much. The precious metals are the heaviest.

...

lix Finish off well.

In the house of Fortune, if you enter by the gate of pleasure, you must leave by that of sorrow and vice versâ. You ought therefore to think of the finish, and attach more importance to a graceful exit than to applause on entrance. 'Tis the common lot of the unlucky to have a very fortunate outset and a very tragic end. The important point is not the vulgar applause on entrance—that comes to nearly all—but the general feeling at exit. Few in life are felt to deserve an encore. Fortune rarely accompanies anyone to the door: warmly as she may welcome the coming, she speeds but coldly the parting guest.

...

lxxviii The Art of undertaking Things.

Fools rush in through the door; for folly is always bold. The same simplicity which robs them of all attention to precautions deprives them of all sense of shame at failure. But prudence enters with more deliberation. Its forerunners are caution and care; they advance and discover whether you can also advance without danger. Every rush forward is freed from danger by caution, while fortune sometimes helps in such cases. Step cautiously where you suspect depth. Sagacity goes cautiously forward while precaution covers the ground. Nowadays there are unsuspected depths in human intercourse; you must therefore cast the lead at every step.

...

lxxxvii Culture and Elegance.

Man is born a barbarian, and only raises himself above the beast by culture. Culture therefore makes the man; the more a man, the higher. Thanks to it, Greece could call the rest of the world barbarians. Ignorance is very raw; nothing contributes so much to culture as knowledge. But even knowledge is coarse if without elegance. Not alone must our intelligence be elegant, but our desires, and above all our conversation. Some men are naturally elegant in internal and external qualities, in their thoughts, in their address, in their dress, which is the rind of the soul, and in their talents, which is its fruit. There are others, on the other hand, so gauche that everything about them, even their very excellences, is tarnished by an intolerable and barbaric want of neatness.

...

xcix Reality and Appearance

Things pass for what they seem, not for what they are. Few see inside; many take to the outside. It is not enough to be right, if right seem false and ill.

...

cviii The Path to Greatness is along with Others.

Intercourse works well: manners and taste are shared; good sense and even talent grow insensibly. Let the sanguine man then make a comrade of the lymphatic, and so with the other temperaments, so that without any forcing the golden mean is obtained. It is a great art to agree with others. The alternation of contraries beautifies and sustains the world: if it can cause harmony in the physical world, still more can it do so in the moral. Adopt this policy in the choice of friends and defendants; by joining extremes the more effective middle way is found.

...

cxxxiii Revise your Judgments.

To appeal to an inner Court of Revision makes things safe. Especially when the course of action is not clear, you gain time either to confirm or improve your decision. It affords new grounds for strengthening or corroborating your judgment. And if it is a matter of giving, the gift is the more valued from its being evidently well considered than for being promptly bestowed: long expected is highest prized. And if you have to deny, you gain time to decide how and when to mature the No that it may be made palatable. Besides, after the first heat of desire is passed the repulse of refusal is felt less keenly in cold blood. But especially when men press for a reply it is best to defer it, for as often as not that is only a feint to disarm attention.

...

cliv Do not Believe, or Like, lightly.

Maturity of mind is best shown in slow belief. Lying is the usual thing; then let belief be unusual. He that is lightly led away, soon falls into contempt. At the same time there is no necessity to betray your doubts in the good faith of others, for this adds insult to discourtesy, since you make out your informant to be either deceiver or deceived. Nor is this the only evil: want of belief is the mark of the liar, who suffers from two failings: he neither believes nor is believed. Suspension of judgment is prudent in a hearer: the speaker can appeal to his original source of information. There is a similar kind of imprudence in liking too easily, for lies may be told by deeds as well as in words, and this deceit is more dangerous for practical life.

...

cxciv Have reasonable Views of Yourself and of your Affairs,

especially in the beginning of life. Everyone has a high opinion of himself, especially those who have least ground for it. Everyone dreams of his good luck and thinks himself a wonder. Hope gives rise to extravagant promises which experience does not fulfill. Such idle imaginations merely serve as a wellspring of annoyance when disillusion comes with the true reality. The wise man anticipates such errors: he may always hope for the best, but he always expects the worst, so as to receive what comes with equanimity. True, it is wise to aim high so as to hit your mark, but not so high that you miss your mission at the very beginning of life. This correction of the ideas is necessary, because before experience comes expectation is sure to soar too high. The best panacea against folly is prudence. If a man knows the true sphere of his activity and position, he can reconcile his ideals with reality.

...

cciv Attempt easy Tasks as if they were difficult, and difficult tasks as if they were easy.

In the one case that confidence may not fall asleep, in the other that it may not be dismayed. For a thing to remain undone nothing more is needed than to think it done. On the other hand, patient industry overcomes impossibilities. Great undertakings are not to be brooded over, lest their difficulty when seen causes despair.

...

ccxxxv Know how to Ask

With some nothing easier: with others nothing so difficult. For there are men who cannot refuse: with them no skill is required. But with others their first word at all times is No; with them great art is required, and with all the propitious moment. Surprise them when in a pleasant mood, when a repast of body or soul has just left them refreshed, if only their shrewdness has not anticipated the cunning of the applicant. The days of joy are the days of favour, for joy overflows from the inner man into the outward creation. It is no use applying when another has been refused, since the objection to a No has just been overcome. Nor is it a good time after sorrow. To oblige a person beforehand is a sure way, unless he is mean.

Footnotes

  1. For more information on Crocker's Rules, see the original formulation and the LessWrong explanation.

Pinned Loading

  1. CDCgov/PyRenew CDCgov/PyRenew Public

    Python package for multi-signal Bayesian renewal modeling with JAX and NumPyro.

    Python 14 3

  2. CDCgov/forecasttools-py CDCgov/forecasttools-py Public

    A Python package for common pre- and post-processing operations done by CFA Predict for short term forecasting, nowcasting, and scenario modeling.

    Python 4

  3. Genetic-Evolution-Tournament Genetic-Evolution-Tournament Public

    The Genetic Evolution Tournament (GET) is a Metaculus human judgment forecasting tournament established to generate forecasts and scenarios pertaining to the use of human genetic and reproductive t…

    SCSS 6

  4. Paleo-Utils Paleo-Utils Public

    Tools for the author to facilitate various tasks in paleontological work, including specimen labels, systematics organization, measurement grids, and imaging utilities.

    4