Probabilistic part for determination of minimum reserve capacity on yearly basis (Y-1) for single LFC Block in SOR level (year-ahead)

For the minimum reserve capacity calculation run py/minimum_reserve_capacity_calc.py. Results are generated to the same folder report_<current_day-current_month-current_year.pdf> as a name.

It takes the input data (constants.py/ACEOL_TABLE): at least one full year (constants.py/AT_LEAST_ONE_FULL_YEAR_PERIOD) starting not less than 6 months before the current date (constants.py/NOT_EARLIER_THAN_SIX_MONTHS). Extracts data for Baltic region (constants.py/REGIONS). Finds the 0.01 and 99.99 percentile (constants.py/PERCENTILE_0001_VALUE and constants.py/PERCENTILE_9999_VALUE) and presents these as a result.

Because,

from the “Methodology for the regional sizing of reserve capacity” in accordance with IME Regulation, Article 4 (4):

To determine the reserve capacity per direction at SOR level required to respect the FRCE target parameters in Article 128 of SO Regulation, a probabilistic approach shall be applied additionally.

a. TSOs of the relevant SOR shall provide the RCC the LFC block imbalance data time series (ACEol). The sampling of those time series shall cover the time to restore the frequency according to Annex III of SO Regulation. The time period considered for those historical records shall be representative and include at least one full year period ending not earlier than six months before the calculation date. The time period considered shall be the same for all LFC block imbalance time series within the relevant SOR and agreed by all TSOs of the relevant SOR.

b. The RCC shall sump up per sampling time the LFC block imbalance time series of the SOR received under point a. without separating positive and negative imbalances

c. The RCC shall calculate the reserve capacity needed to cover the positive SOR imbalances for at least 99,99%* of the time based on the historical records summed up at SOR level referred to in point b. The use of applying this level is decrease system operational risks which are increased by not separating positive and negative imbalances under point b.

d. The RCC shall calculate the reserve capacity needed to cover the negative SOR imbalances for at least 99.99%* of the time based on the summed up historical records referred to in point (b). The use of applying this level is to decrease system operational risks which are increased by not separating positive and negative imbalances under point b.

*Parameter values are determined in coordinated manner of relevant TOSs of the SOR on yearly basis