EnsoSstMap
Computes the spatial correlation and root mean square error (RMSE) of global (60°S-60°N) surface temperature anomalies (TSA) during boreal winter (December value smoothed with a 5-month triangular-weighted moving average) between model and observations
ERA-Interim 1979-2018 (main)
Niño3.4, global60
model and observations regridded toward a generic 1°x1° grid (using cdms esmf linear method)
- seasonal cycle removed
- detrending (if applicable)
- smoothed with time running average
- spatial average
- seasonal cycle removed
- detrending (if applicable)
- smoothed with time running average
- regridding (if applicable)
- December Niño3.4 SSTA regressed onto December TSA global (60°S-60°N)
- correlation computation
- RMSE computation
monthly
°C/°C
sea surface temperature (SST) surface temperature (TS)
The first level shows the diagnostic used to compute the metric and highlight the main differences between the model and the reference.
Figure 1: structure of surface temperature anomalies (TSA) on Earth (between 60°S-60°N), showing the location of TSA associated with ENSO. Usually the teleconnection pattern is ok - corr ~ 0.5, rmse ~ 0.2°C/°C - but it is too weak in southern Africa and North Pacific, and too strong in the USA. Here the teleconnection pattern is slightly better - corr = 0.63, rmse = 0.14°C/°C - but it is too weak in Southern Africa, North Pacific and Australia and too strong over South East Asia, in the USA and the southern South Pacific. The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model. The metrics derived are the spatial correlation and spatial RMSE between the model map and the reference map.
The second level focusses on teleconnections over key land regions: southern half of Africa, North America, South America, South East Asia, Australia.
Figure 2: surface temperature anomalies (TSA) over the southern half of Africa. The reference shows a strong positive teleconnection (up to 0.7°C/°C) over southern Africa (South of 15°S) and a weaker negative teleconnection (around -0.4°C/°C) over eastern Africa (Kenya & Tanzania). Usually the models tend to simulate a positive teleconnection (around 0.3°C/°C) everywhere. Here the model simulates the negative teleconnection over eastern Africa but the positive teleconnection over southern Africa is too weak. The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 3: surface temperature anomalies (TSA) over North America. The reference shows a strong positive teleconnection (up to 0.7°C/°C) over northern North America (North of 40°N) and a weaker negative teleconnection (around -0.4°C/°C) over southwestern North America (Southwest USA and Mexico). Usually the models simulate this pattern but the positive pattern is weaker and too far North and the negative pattern extends too far East. The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 4: surface temperature anomalies (TSA) over South America. The reference shows a strong positive teleconnection (up to 0.9°C/°C) over northern South America (North of the Amazon river) and a weaker negative teleconnection (around -0.4°C/°C) over southern South America (Chile, Argentina & Uruguay). Usually the models simulate this pattern but the positive teleconnection extends all over South America North of 30°S. Here the model does not simulate the maximum positive teleconnection above the Amazon river but a quite uniform positive teleconnection (around 0.3 or 0.4 °C/°C) all over South America North of 30°S and the negative teleconnection over southern South America is too weak (between -0.1 and -0.2°C/°C). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 5: surface temperature anomalies (TSA) over South East Asia. The reference shows positive teleconnections (around 0.3°C/°C) over India and the Indochinese peninsula, and a negative teleconnection (around -0.3°C/°C) over the Tibetan plateau. Usually the models simulate a too strong (around 0.4 or 0.5°C/°C) positive teleconnection that extends almost all over South East Asia (but there is a very weak, -0.1°C/°C negative teleconnection over the Tibetan plateau). Here the model simulates quite well the reference pattern but the positive teleconnections over of India and the Indochinese peninsula are too strong (around 0.6°C/°C), there is also a 0.4°C/°C teleconnection over Sumatra and Borneo islands, and the negative teleconnection over the Tibetan plateau is a bit too strong in the East (over Myanmar). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.
Figure 6: surface temperature anomalies (TSA) over Australia. The reference shows two strong positive teleconnections over western Australia (up to 0.6°C/°C) and eastern Australia (up to 0.9°C/°C). Usually the models simulate a quite uniform positive (around 0.6°C/°C) teleconnection over Australia with a maximum around 0.7°C/°C in eastern Australia. Here the model simulates a pattern close to the "usual" simulated pattern but weaker (around 0.3°C/°C with a maximum 0.5 to 0.6°C/°C in eastern Australia). The left and right maps show respectively the reference and the model.