IPCC AR6 WGI - Chapter 11 Figures

This repository contains data analysis scripts and visualization of many figures of Chapter 11 of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of Working Group 1 (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also includes parts of two figures in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM), data preparation for one figure of Chapter 12, and of Figure SPM.2 of AR6 Synthesis Report (SYR).

Figures

The following table shows which figures/ panels for the WGI SPM, Chapter 11 and Chapter 12 in the IPCC AR6 report were created from this repository. It also shows which part (data analysis and visualization) is actually done in the repository.

Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis

Figure	Panel	A*	V†	Notebook	Data Source
Figure SPM.5	d	x	x	Figure_SPM.5_SM_map	CMIP6
Figure SPM.6	c	x		SMDroughtIndex	CMIP6
Figure 11.2	-	x	x	Figure_11.2_obs_ts_plots	Dunn et al. (2020), Section 2.3.1.1.3
Figure 11.3	all	x	x	Figure_11.3_TXx_scaling	CMIP6
Figure 11.9	all	x	x	Figure_11.9_HadEX3_maps	Dunn et al. (2020)
Figure 11.10	all		x	Figure_11.10_Wehner_temperature_bias	Wehner et al. (2020)
Figure 11.11	a-c	x	x	Figure_11.11_TXx_map	CMIP6
Figure 11.11	d-f	x	x	Figure_11.11_TNn_map	CMIP6
Figure 11.12	-		x	Figure_11.12_TXx_intensity_Li_et_al	Li et al. (2020)
Figure 11.13	b-c		x	Figure_11.13_Rx1day_trend_maps_Sun	Sun et al. (2020)
Figure 11.14	all		x	Figure_11.14_Wehner_precipitation_bias	Wehner et al. (2020)
Figure 11.15	-		x	Figure_11.15_Rx1day_intensity_Li_et_al	Li et al. (2020)
Figure 11.16	all	x	x	Figure_11.16_Rx1day_map	CMIP6
Figure 11.17	all		x	Figure_11.17_CDD_SPI_SPEI	Spinoni et al. (2019)
Figure 11.18	all	x	x	SMDroughtIndex	CMIP6
Figure 11.19	a-c	x	x	Figure_11.19_CDD_map	CMIP6
Figure 11.19	d-f	x	x	Figure_11.19_SM_map	CMIP6
Figure 11.19	g-l	x	x	SMDroughtIndex	CMIP6
Box 11.1, Figure 1	all		x	Box_11.1_Figure_1_Pfahl_2017	Pfahl et al. (2017)
Box 11.4, Figure 1	-		x	Box_11.4_Figure_1_Sippel_2015	Sippel et al. (2015)
Box 11.4, Figure 2	-	x	x	Box_11.4_Figure_2_2018	Hersbach et al. (2020)
FAQ 11.1, Figure 1	all	x	x	FAQ_11.1_Figure_1_mean_vs_extreme	CMIP6
Figure 11.SM.1	all	x	x	Figure_11.SM.1_TNn_scaling	CMIP6
Figure 12.4	j-l	x		Figure_12.4_S12.4_SM_data_tables	CMIP6

^*Analysis ^† Visualisation

Synthesis Report

Figure	Panel	A*	V†	Notebook	Data Source
SYR Figure SPM.2	a	x	x	SYR_Figure_SPM.2a_TXx_map	CMIP6
SYR Figure SPM.2	b	x	x	SYR_Figure_SPM.2b_SM_tot_map	CMIP6
SYR Figure SPM.2	c	x	x	SYR_Figure_SPM.2c_Rx1day_map	CMIP6

^*Analysis ^† Visualisation

Tables

The following shows which tables in Chapter 11 were created from this repository.

Table	Notebook	Data Source
Table 11.SM.1	Table_11.SM.1_GSAT_anom	CMIP5 & CMIP6
Table 11.SM.2-8	Table_11.SM_cmip_indices_regional	CMIP6

Associated data repositories

There are three external data repositories associated with Chapter 11, which provide additional data and data used in the chapter in a computer accessible form.

Global mean temperature anomalies for CMIP5 and CMIP6

The cmip_temperatures repository provides mean temperature anomalies for different time periods for CMIP5 and CMIP6. It contains the same info as Table 11.SM.1. Note that these temperature anomalies are unassessed.

Global warming levels for CMIP5 and CMIP6

The cmip_warming_levels repository documents the year when a certain global warming level was reached in CMIP5 and CMIP6 data. There is no associated table in the IPCC report.

Multi-model-median regional means at warming levels for selected indices (CMIP6)

The cmip_indices_regional repository documents multi-model-median regional means at warming levels for selected indices (CMIP6) & contains the same info as Table 11.SM.2 through Table 11.SM.8.

Regional Factsheets

The map insets for IPCC AR6 WGI regional fact sheets were created in the RegionalFactSheetsMaps notebook. These maps were used for the following fact sheets: Introduction, Africa, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, Europe, North and Central America, and Ocean.

Data

This repository is provided without data. The data volume (approximately 1 TB) prohibits an efficient distribution. In addition not all data is in the public domain.

There are several ways to obtain some or all the data

• The data can be provided upon reasonable request (either the whole data folder or parts).
• Some of the final data (i.e. exactly what is shown in the figure) is available from CEDA, (e.g. the data for Figure SPM 5).
• Some datasets are publicly available, e.g. HadEX3.

License

Copyright (c) 2021 ETH Zurich, Mathias Hauser.

This is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, version 3 or (at your option) any later version.

The code is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.

You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License along with this code. If not, see https://www.gnu.org/licenses/.

Acknowledgment

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and coordinated CMIP5 and CMIP6. We particularly thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. We thank Urs Beyerle for downloading, archiving, and curating the CMIP5 and CMIP6 data at ETH Zurich.

References

• Dunn, R. J. H., Alexander, L. V., Donat, M. G., Zhang, X., Bador, M., Herold, N., et al. (2020). Development of an Updated Global Land In Situ-Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes: HadEX3. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 125. doi:10.1029/2019JD032263.
• Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., et al. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049. doi:10.1002/qj.3803.
• Li, C., Zwiers, F., Zhang, X., Li, G., Sun, Y., and Wehner, M. (2020a). Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models. J. Clim. (submitted, 1–61. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1.
• Pfahl, S., O’Gorman, P. A., and Fischer, E. M. (2017). Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7, 423. doi:10.1038/nclimate3287.
• Sippel, S., Zscheischler, J., Heimann, M., Otto, F. E. L., Peters, J., and Mahecha, M. D. (2015). Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 9990–9998. doi:10.1002/2015GL066307.
• Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., De Jager, A., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Vogt, J. V., et al. (2019). A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud. 22, 100593. doi:10.1016/J.EJRH.2019.100593.
• Sun, Q., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F., Westra, S., and Alexander, L. V (2020). A global, continental and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation. J. Clim., 1–52. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1.
• Wehner, M., Gleckler, P., and Lee, J. (2020). Characterization of long period return values of extreme daily temperature and precipitation in the CMIP6 models: Part 1, model evaluation. Weather Clim. Extrem. 30, 100283. doi:10.1016/j.wace.2020.100283.