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added together the variances so that the results of predicts correspond to the posterior predictive distribution #117

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@pasq-cat pasq-cat commented Sep 1, 2024

right now it correspond to a maximum likelihood estimate centered around the MAP. The contribution to the variance due to the priors is not added to the variance coming from the likelihood

@pasq-cat pasq-cat linked an issue Sep 1, 2024 that may be closed by this pull request
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codecov bot commented Sep 1, 2024

Codecov Report

All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests ✅

Project coverage is 96.47%. Comparing base (b638fcb) to head (94040ab).

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##             main     #117   +/-   ##
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  Coverage   96.47%   96.47%           
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  Files          21       21           
  Lines         595      596    +1     
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+ Hits          574      575    +1     
  Misses         21       21           

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@pasq-cat pasq-cat requested a review from pat-alt September 1, 2024 19:51
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I think this is confusing the distribution over network outputs $p(f|x,D)$ (i.e. the GLM predictive) with the approximate predictive distribution $p(y|x,D)$ (see section 2.1 (4) in Daxberger et al). The former does not incorporate observational noise, the latter does.

The information of the weight prior does enter into the GLM predictive, but not the one for the observational noise (it shouldn't).

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pasq-cat commented Sep 2, 2024

I think this is confusing the distribution over network outputs p ( f | x , D ) (i.e. the GLM predictive) with the approximate predictive distribution p ( y | x , D ) (see section 2.1 (4) in Daxberger et al). The former does not incorporate observational noise, the latter does.

The information of the weight prior does enter into the GLM predictive, but not the one for the observational noise (it shouldn't).

mmm ok
i will leave this issue to you.

@pasq-cat pasq-cat closed this Sep 3, 2024
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Make plot and predict consistent
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