Eval: Probability Questions Sourced From Actuarial Exam P and Univers…

…ity Statistics Courses (openai#263)

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Note that even if the criteria are met, that does not guarantee the PR
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__PLEASE READ THIS__:

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## Eval details 📑
### Eval name
Probability Questions

### Eval description

Tests the model's ability to understand answer probability questions.
Questions are sourced from Society of Actuaries Exam P sample questions
and practice problems/exams from statistics classes at MIT, UPenn,
California State University, Durham University, University of
Connecticut, and other sources. The full list of questions and sources
(in the same order as in the `.jsonl` files) can be found in this Google
[sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TU_4VPhIce9JtLV5gLy619WNibVjiWB-dtiwqkBtCrU/edit?usp=sharing)

### What makes this a useful eval?

Test the model's ability to understand worded probability questions,
bring in concepts such as probability distributions, and then reason
through a correct answer.

## Criteria for a good eval ✅

Below are some of the criteria we look for in a good eval. In general,
we are seeking cases where the model does not do a good job despite
being capable of generating a good response (note that there are some
things large language models cannot do, so those would not make good
evals).

Your eval should be:

- [x] Thematically consistent: The eval should be thematically
consistent. We'd like to see a number of prompts all demonstrating some
particular failure mode. For example, we can create an eval on cases
where the model fails to reason about the physical world.
- [x] Contains failures where a human can do the task, but either GPT-4
or GPT-3.5-Turbo could not.
- [x] Includes good signal around what is the right behavior. This means
either a correct answer for `Basic` evals or the `Fact` Model-graded
eval, or an exhaustive rubric for evaluating answers for the `Criteria`
Model-graded eval.
- [x] Include at least 100 high quality examples (it is okay to only
contribute 5-10 meaningful examples and have us test them with GPT-4
before adding all 100)

If there is anything else that makes your eval worth including, please
document it below.

### Unique eval value

Using the `match` grading criteria, GPT3.5-turbo got an accuracy score
of `{'accuracy': 0.07}`

## Eval structure 🏗️

Your eval should
- [x] Check that your data is in `evals/registry/data/{name}`
- [x] Check that your yaml is registered at
`evals/registry/evals/{name}.jsonl`
- [x] Ensure you have the right to use the data you submit via this eval

(For now, we will only be approving evals that use one of the existing
eval classes. You may still write custom eval classes for your own
cases, and we may consider merging them in the future.)

## Final checklist 👀

### Submission agreement

By contributing to Evals, you are agreeing to make your evaluation logic
and data under the same MIT license as this repository. You must have
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right to use this data in future service improvements to our product.
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- [x] I agree that my submission will be made available under an MIT
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### Limited availability acknowledgement

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requirements mentioned above and high volume of submissions, we will not
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- [x] I understand that opening a PR, even if it meets the requirements
above, does not guarantee the PR will be merged nor GPT-4 access
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### Submit eval

- [x] I have filled out all required fields in the evals PR form
- [x] (Ignore if not submitting code) I have run `pip install
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and `autoflake` are running when I commit and push

Failure to fill out all required fields will result in the PR being
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### Eval JSON data 

Since we are using Git LFS, we are asking eval submitters to add in as
many Eval Samples (at least 5) from their contribution here:

<details>
  <summary>View evals in JSON</summary>

  ### Eval
  ```jsonl
{"input": [{"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful
statistician. Answer the questions with only the numerical answer
rounded to 4 decimal places. Provide no explanation."}, {"role": "user",
"content": "A pair of fair, standard dice are rolled. What is the
probability the sum of the dice is 5"}], "ideal": ["0.1111"]}
{"input": [{"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful
statistician. Answer the questions with only the numerical answer
rounded to 4 decimal places. Provide no explanation."}, {"role": "user",
"content": "An airplane is built to be able to fly on one engine. If the
plane's two engines operate independently, and each has a 1% chance of
failing in any given four-hour flight, what is the chance the plane will
fail to complete a four-hour flight to Oklahoma due to engine
failure?"}], "ideal": ["0.0001"]}
{"input": [{"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful
statistician. Answer the questions with only the numerical answer
rounded to 4 decimal places. Provide no explanation."}, {"role": "user",
"content": "A 1-inch-diameter coin is thrown on a table covered with a
grid of lines two inches apart. What is the probability the coin lands
in a square without touching any of the lines of the grid?"}], "ideal":
["0.2500"]}
{"input": [{"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful
statistician. Answer the questions with only the numerical answer
rounded to 4 decimal places. Provide no explanation."}, {"role": "user",
"content": "Of the 50 students in a certain class, 5 speak French. Two
students of the class will be selected at random. Which of the following
is closest to the probability that neither of the students selected will
speak French?"}], "ideal": ["0.8100"]}
{"input": [{"role": "system", "content": "You are a helpful
statistician. Answer the questions with only the numerical answer
rounded to 4 decimal places. Provide no explanation."}, {"role": "user",
"content": "Of the 10 marbles in a box, 2 are green. A person will
select 2 marbles simultaneously and at random from the box. What is the
probability that neither of the marbles selected will be green?"}],
"ideal": ["0.6222"]}
  ```
</details>

evals/registry/evals/probability_questions.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+probability-questions:
+  id: probability-questions.dev.v0
+  description: A collection of probability questions that ChatGPT fails.  Let's see if GPT-4 can do better.
+  metrics: [accuracy]
+probability-questions.dev.v0:
+  class: evals.elsuite.basic.match:Match
+  args:
+    samples_jsonl: probability_questions/probability_questions.jsonl