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update function names, harmonize terminology
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cbahlai committed Aug 6, 2019
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## Authors/developers: Christie A. Bahlai [@cbahlai](https://github.com/cbahlai) and Elise F. Zipkin [@ezipkin](https://github.com/ezipkin)

In this repository, we develop a novel break-point analysis tool for population time series data, building on the methods described in [Bahlai et al 2015, Ecological Applications](https://doi.org/10.1890/14-2022.1). The tool uses the Ricker model as the data-generating process for a dynamic regime, iterates through all break point combinations, and uses information-theoretic decision tools (i.e. Akaike's Information Criteron) to determine best fits. In this repository we develop the tool, simulate data under a variety of conditions to demonstrate the tool, and apply the tool to two case studies: overwintering populations of monarch butterflies and invasions of multicolored Asian ladybeetle. This tool is scripted entirely in R.
In this repository, we develop a novel break-point analysis tool for population time series data, building on the methods described in [Bahlai et al 2015, Ecological Applications](https://doi.org/10.1890/14-2022.1). The tool uses the Ricker model as the data-generating process for a dynamic rule, iterates through all break point combinations, and uses information-theoretic decision tools (i.e. Akaike's Information Criteron) to determine best fits. In this repository we develop the tool, simulate data under a variety of conditions to demonstrate the tool, and apply the tool to two case studies: overwintering populations of monarch butterflies and invasions of multicolored Asian ladybeetle. This tool is scripted entirely in R.

## File navigation

**regime_shift_detector.R** - contains functions to detect regime shifts in population time series. The function RSdetector() takes raw time series data and generates a complete report on fits, best fits, break points, and regression parameters for models with best fits
**dynamic_shift_detector.R** - contains functions to detect regime shifts in population time series. The function DSdetector() takes raw time series data and generates a complete report on fits, best fits, break points, and regression parameters for models with best fits

**monarch_example.R** - applies the regime shift detector analysis to monarch overwintering data from Mexico
**monarch_example.R** - applies the dynamic shift detector analysis to monarch overwintering data from Mexico

**plot_monarch_figures.R** - plots output from monarch example, places outputs in **figs folder**

**harmonia_example.R** - applies the regime shift detector analysis to harmonia ladybeetle population data from Kellogg Biological Station. Includes data cleaning/manipulation code after Bahlai et al 2015.
**harmonia_example.R** - applies the dynamic shift detector analysis to harmonia ladybeetle population data from Kellogg Biological Station. Includes data cleaning/manipulation code after Bahlai et al 2015.

**plot_harmona_figures.R** - plots output from harmonia example, places outputs in **figs folder**

**simulations.R**- a set of functions that creates time series data using secified parameters, and then a set of funtions to test if the parameters input match the ones detected by the regime shift detector, and the code that creates simulations under a variety of conditions, runs it through the comparison functions, and tallies the outputs, outputs a CSV file to the **'simresults' folder**
**simulations.R**- a set of functions that creates time series data using secified parameters, and then a set of funtions to test if the parameters input match the ones detected by the dynamic shift detector, and the code that creates simulations under a variety of conditions, runs it through the comparison functions, and tallies the outputs, outputs a CSV file to the **'simresults' folder**

**plot_simulation_results.R** - takes the simulation outputs and creates plots based on varying one input at a time to see the RSdetector's performance under differing conditions- outputs figures as PDF vector graphis to the **'figs' folder**
**plot_simulation_results.R** - takes the simulation outputs and creates plots based on varying one input at a time to see the DSdetector's performance under differing conditions- outputs figures as PDF vector graphis to the **'figs' folder**

**casestudydata folder** contains data for Harmonia case study. Monarch study data are proprietary

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