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230 changes: 230 additions & 0 deletions content/blog/2023-08-07-welcome-peter.html
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---
title: Welcome Peter Jhon, Delphi's Inaugural Executive Director
author: Carlyn Van Dyke
date: 2023-08-07
tags:
- delphi
authors:
- carlyn
heroImage: blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg
heroImageThumb: blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
Hello from the Delphi research group at Carnegie Mellon University!
We're a group of faculty, students, and staff, based primarily out of CMU
together with strong collaborators from other universities and industry.
Our group was founded in 2012 to advance the theory and practice of epidemic
forecasting. Since March 2020, we have refocused efforts towards helping combat
the COVID-19 pandemic, by supporting informed decision-making at federal, state,
and local levels of government and in the healthcare sector. Until now, we've
been pretty “heads down” with our work, and slow to communicate what we've been
up to. But at last ... Delphi finally has a blog! This first post serves as an
introduction of sorts. Future posts will dive deeper into our various projects.
output:
blogdown::html_page:
toc: true
---



<script src="/rmarkdown-libs/header-attrs/header-attrs.js"></script>
<div id="TOC">
<ul>
<li>
<a href="#a-little-bit-about-us">A Little Bit About Us</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="#our-mission-and-strategy">Our Mission and Strategy</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="#what-weve-been-up-to">What We’ve Been Up To</a>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p>
Hello from the Delphi research group at Carnegie Mellon University!
We’re a group of faculty, students, and staff, based primarily out of CMU
together with strong collaborators from other universities and industry.
Our group was founded in 2012 to advance the theory and practice of epidemic
forecasting. Since March 2020, we have refocused efforts towards helping combat
the COVID-19 pandemic, by supporting informed decision-making at federal, state,
and local levels of government and in the healthcare sector. Until now, we’ve
been pretty “heads down” with our work, and slow to communicate what we’ve been
up to. But at last … Delphi finally has a blog! This first post serves as an
introduction of sorts. Future posts will dive deeper into our various projects.
</p>
<div id="a-little-bit-about-us" class="section level2">
<h2>
A Little Bit About Us
</h2>
<p>
We (Roni and Ryan) are co-leads and co-founders of the Delphi group.
When we started the group back in 2012,
our mission was to develop the theory
and practice of epidemiological forecasting, with a long-term
vision of seeing this technology become as universally accepted
and useful as weather forecasting is today.
In the following years, we developed both nowcasting and forecasting models,
focusing primarily on seasonal influenza in the US.
Our forecasting system is a perennial top finisher
in the Centers for Disease Control’s annual forecasting challenges.
In 2019, we were named one of the CDC’s two
Centers of Excellence for Influenza Forecasting.
</p>
<p>
Back when we formed the group in 2012,
the “original four” members were David Farrow, Logan Brooks, Roni, and Ryan.
By early 2020, pre-pandemic, we’d grown to about 7-8 members in size,
and were happily and steadily making progress on flu forecasting and nowcasting,
and making headway into dengue and norovirus.
To learn about the work our group has done in the past,
including some papers we’ve written, software tools we’ve built,
and the real-time epidemiological data server we’ve been deploying since 2016,
check out {{&lt; reflink “/” “our website” &gt;}}.
</p>
<p>
When the COVID-19 pandemic arrived, we focused all our attention on it.
Our Delphi team
quickly grew to 30+ members, and is still growing.
Most of our members are volunteers,
drawing talent from within CMU and several other universities,
including Stanford, UC Davis, and USC, and also from industry.
The pace has been intense and dizzying at times,
and we’re infinitely grateful for the contributions
and commitment of all our new members—we’d be nowhere without them.
See {{&lt; reflink “team” “here” &gt;}}
for a list of the Delphi team members.
</p>
<p>
With new members comes a new breadth of expertise:
our expertise now covers statistical modeling, computation,
systems engineering, user interfaces, visualization,
digital epidemiology, and epidemic forecasting.
We’ve been extremely fortunate to have developed
several new relationships with stakeholders and supporters in government,
the healthcare sector, and the tech industry; and of course,
we’re proud and grateful for our existing relationships,
especially our longstanding relationship with the CDC.
</p>
</div>
<div id="our-mission-and-strategy" class="section level2">
<h2>
Our Mission and Strategy
</h2>
<p>
While Delphi’s long-term mission remains to advance the theory and practice of
epidemic forecasting, since March 2020 our goals are to help combat the COVID-19
pandemic and save lives and livelihoods.
We aim to support informed decision-making at federal,
state, and local levels of government and in the healthcare sector.
Whenever possible, we strive to make our work useful
to the private and public sectors, other researchers,
the press, and the general public.
</p>
<p>
Our strategy:
</p>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>
<p>
Improve pandemic situational awareness and understanding
by providing comprehensive, geographically-detailed,
and continuously-updated indicators of pandemic activity and its impact,
helping to make meaning out of the pandemic information deluge.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Support local, state, and federal governments’
ongoing decision-making in their attempts to balance
public health concerns with economic preservation,
by providing validated, verifiable, localized,
short-term forecasts of epidemic spread and healthcare demand,
under any assumed level of the local population’s mobility and distancing
behavior.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Analyze and demonstrate the impacts of governments’
past tightening or loosening of mitigation measures
(e.g., opening or closing schools or businesses,
imposing or lifting bans on gatherings, shelter in place orders, etc.)
on a population’s mobility and distancing behavior.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Engage continuously with our target users to communicate
our findings, and inform our directions and priorities.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Make our products useful and accessible to other
researchers and tool developers, to amplify their impact.
To that end, we’ll continue to make everything we invent or produce
publicly and freely available as soon as possible
and to the greatest degree allowed, including models,
algorithms, software, tools, estimates, and forecasts.
</p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="what-weve-been-up-to" class="section level2">
<h2>
What We’ve Been Up To
</h2>
<p>
So what have we been doing since March?
We’ve been working towards our strategic goals above,
and have made good progress on some of them.
</p>
<p>
Here’s a quick summary:
</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>
We’ve built a number of new indicators of COVID-19 activity.
These are fine-grained geographically
(most of them are available at the US county level)
and temporally (all of them updated daily).
They are designed to shed light on the current picture of COVID in the US,
beyond the typical publicly-available metrics like confirmed cases and deaths.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
Some of our indicators are based on massive-scale surveys that we’re running
through partnerships with Facebook and Google, and others are based on
aggregated counts from massive medical claims data sets through partners like
Change Healthcare.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
We’ve built a {{&lt; apireflink “api/covidcast.html” “public API” &gt;}},
and {{&lt; apireflink “api/covidcast_clients.html” “R and Python packages” &gt;}},
to serve our indicators to researchers and the public. This API provides new
data daily.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
We’ve built {{&lt; reflink “covidcast” “interactive maps and graphics” &gt;}} to
display our indicators, and better inform the public and decision-makers.
</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>
We’ve developed forecasts of the future spread of the pandemic,
validated them prospectively, and started submitting them to CDC.
</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>
In subsequent posts, we’ll dive deeper into many of these projects, and touch on
what’s next for us (a lot… in many ways, we feel that our most important work
is still ahead of us). Until next time!
</p>
</div>
5 changes: 3 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2024-09-13-back-to-the-future.html
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---
title: Back to the Future From Delphi Epidata to COVIDcast, and Back
title: Back to the Future - From Delphi Epidata to COVIDcast, and Back
author: Roni Rosenfeld, Peter Jhon, Carlyn Van Dyke
date: 2024-10-01
tags:
Expand All @@ -13,7 +13,8 @@
heroImageThumb: blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
When the pandemic broke out, Delphi naturally turned our focus to COVID-19. Our collection of signals grew dramatically, from a few dozen to several hundred, with all new signals focusing on COVID-19 in the US. We also created a new Delphi Epidata ingestion pipeline, database schema, API endpoint, and visualization website, all focusing on COVID-19 signals, and gave it the name COVIDcast. As a result, COVIDcast is the portion of Delphi Epidata that focuses on COVID-19 related signals. It is currently the biggest portion of Delphi Epidata, and constitutes what we believe may be the largest public repository of real-time, geographically-detailed indicators of COVID-19 activity in the U.S.
As the pandemic’s critical phase began to subside, we have been gradually returning to our long-term mission: to develop the theory and practice of epidemic forecasting for all existing and emerging pathogens and other fast moving public health concerns. At the signals level, this means zooming out from just COVIDcast to the bigger picture, returning the focus to Delphi Epidata. We have recently reconfigured our website accordingly. The move from COVIDcast to Delphi Epidata is not a rename, but rather a post-pandemic return to our original broader concept.

As the pandemic’s critical phase began to subside, we have been gradually returning to our long-term mission: to develop the theory and practice of epidemic forecasting for all existing and emerging pathogens and other fast moving public health concerns. At the signals level, this means zooming out from just COVIDcast to the bigger picture, returning the focus to Delphi Epidata. We have recently reconfigured our website accordingly. The move from COVIDcast to Delphi Epidata is not a rename, but rather a post-pandemic return to our original broader concept.
output:
blogdown::html_page:
toc: true
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