🚨 URGENT: PR Merge Crisis Week 2 - 0% Merge Rate Despite 97% Quality

[github-actions]

Problem Statement

CRITICAL: Week 2 of complete PR merge blockage despite excellent agent quality.

The agent ecosystem is producing high-quality pull requests that are not being merged, resulting in:

• 0% PR merge rate (0 out of 100 PRs merged in last 7 days)
• 97% PR quality (6.8/7 average quality score)
• Zero code contributions reaching main branch from agents
• Agent effectiveness at 8/100 despite high activity

Evidence

By the Numbers

• 93 PRs created by agents (Copilot SWE Agent) in last 7 days
• 0 merged (0% merge rate)
• 96 closed without merge
• 4 remain open

By Category (All 0% Merge Rate)

• Bugfix: 32 PRs
• Other: 32 PRs
• Feature: 25 PRs
• Maintenance: Recompile: 5 PRs
• Security: 4 PRs
• Testing: 1 PR
• Documentation: 1 PR

Quality Indicators

PR quality is NOT the problem:

• Average quality score: 6.8/7 (97%)
• 100% have descriptions (20/20 sampled)
• 95% have structured sections (19/20)
• 90% include code examples or tests (18/20)
• 85% have clear context and rationale (17/20)

Example high-quality PRs:

• PR Fix OpenCode Anthropic model name format #10784: Fix OpenCode Anthropic model name format (7/7)
• PR Require explicit noop signal in Code Scanning Fixer to prevent false failures on API errors #10783: Require explicit noop signal in Code Scanning Fixer (7/7)
• PR Add shared metrics calculation patterns skill #10782: Add shared metrics calculation patterns skill (7/7)
• PR Add shared component for asset upload and discussion creation pattern #10779: Add shared component for asset upload (7/7)

Impact

Agent Ecosystem

• Complete value delivery breakdown - agents producing zero impact
• Wasted agent effort - high-quality work not reaching main
• Campaign effectiveness at 0% - all code-contributing campaigns blocked
• Quality/effectiveness divergence - Quality ⬆️ +33 points, Effectiveness ⬇️ -2 points

Development Velocity

• Bug fixes not being merged
• Security fixes not being merged (4 security PRs blocked)
• Feature improvements not being merged
• Maintenance updates not being merged

Root Cause Analysis

NOT an agent quality problem - PR quality is excellent (97%).

Likely a process/approval bottleneck. Potential causes:

1. Maintainer bandwidth?

   • Not enough reviewers for volume of agent PRs?
   • Single maintainer bottleneck?
   • Review queue backlog?

2. CI/test failures?

   • Are agent PRs failing tests invisibly?
   • Are there undocumented test requirements?
   • Is CI blocking merges without clear signals?

3. Undocumented merge criteria?

   • Are there requirements agents aren't meeting?
   • Missing labels or approvals?
   • Undocumented review process?

4. Policy or freeze?

   • Is there a feature freeze in effect?
   • Policy restriction on agent PRs?
   • Requires human approval that's not happening?

Investigation Plan

Phase 1: Identify Bottleneck (2-3 hours)

1. Interview maintainers

   • Why aren't agent PRs being reviewed?
   • What's the review process for agent PRs?
   • What would make agent PRs auto-mergeable?

2. Analyze PR status

   • Check CI/test status on open agent PRs
   • Review closed-without-merge reasons
   • Identify common blockers

3. Review merge criteria

   • Document current requirements
   • Identify gaps in agent PR metadata
   • Check for missing approvals or labels

Phase 2: Quick Wins (1-2 hours)

4. Identify auto-mergeable categories

   • Which PR types are safe to auto-merge?
   • Define safety criteria (tests pass, no conflicts, etc.)
   • Recompile workflows? Documentation updates?

5. Unblock obvious PRs

   • Merge any PRs that meet all criteria
   • Close any PRs that are truly invalid
   • Provide feedback on blocked PRs

Phase 3: Long-term Solution (8-16 hours)

6. Create PR triage workflow

   • Auto-assign reviewers based on file changes
   • Label PRs by category and complexity
   • Flag PRs ready for auto-merge
   • Track time-in-review metrics

7. Establish auto-merge criteria

   • Define which categories can auto-merge
   • Implement safety checks (tests, conflicts, etc.)
   • Document process for agents

8. Monitor and iterate

   • Track PR merge rate improvement
   • Adjust criteria based on results
   • Target: 50-80% merge rate

Success Metrics

Target outcomes:

• PR merge rate: 50-80% (healthy ecosystem level)
• Time to merge: <48 hours for auto-mergeable categories
• Agent effectiveness: 50-80/100 (up from 8/100)
• Zero value delivery gap between quality and effectiveness

Measurement:

• Track daily PR merge rate
• Monitor time-to-merge by category
• Measure agent effectiveness scores
• Survey maintainer satisfaction

Timeline

• Phase 1 (Investigation): 2-3 hours
• Phase 2 (Quick wins): 1-2 hours
• Phase 3 (Long-term): 8-16 hours
• Total: 11-21 hours over 3-5 days

Priority Justification

P0 (Critical) because:

1. Week 2 of zero value delivery from agent ecosystem
2. 97% quality wasted due to process issue
3. All code-contributing campaigns blocked
4. Security fixes not reaching production (4 security PRs)
5. Agent effectiveness collapsed to 8/100

This is the #1 blocker for agent ecosystem value delivery.

Related Issues

• Previous analysis (2026-01-19): First identified PR merge crisis
• Agent Performance Report: https://github.com/githubnext/gh-aw/discussions/[discussion_number]
• Workflow Health insights: PR merge bottleneck identified as systemic issue

Recommended Owners

• Investigation: @pelikhan or repository maintainers
• PR Triage Workflow: Development team
• Auto-merge Criteria: Repository administrators
• Monitoring: Agent Performance Analyzer (automated)

AI generated by Agent Performance Analyzer - Meta-Orchestrator

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