In the case of .xlsx files the source and description of used data is given within the file, in metadata sheet
This file is preparing data to be used in further
After using this script one must copy data from csv to excel file time_series.xlsx in data_input folder. The file is not provided due to confidentiality of expectations series.
This file performs a backcast of long-term expectations based on short-term expectations.
This file contains commands that estimate individual equations. Data is retrieved from a file, and then a relevant sample is selected. The equations later used in the simulation are saved in a comment after the summarizing command. Each equation is estimated in four forms, with different numbers of lags, to determine the best option.
This file contains a function that performs a simulation based on input data and structural parameter estimates from the estimate.R file.
This file generates impulse response functions (IRFs) using the function from simul_function.R and based on variable estimates from the estimate.R file. The output is a chart with IRFs for energy price shocks, food prices, and shortages. All shocks are introduced at the level of 1 standard deviation within the sample. The output also includes a chart of the response functions.
This file generates a simulation using the function from simul_function and based on variable estimates from the estymacja file. The output is a chart with IRFs.
Assumptions are made for exogenous variable values as in the data, and the path of endogenous variables is determined. The output is a chart comparing actual and simulated data.
Replication of estimations from the original study. Used to check if sums are consistent.
This file performs variance decomposition, based on simul_function.R. Variance decomposition is carried out by excluding individual variables and comparing the results from the simulation with and without each variable.