Add probing_diversity_penalty_msat to the scorer parameters

When doing background probing, its important to get a diverse view
of the network graph to ensure you have as many options when
pathfinding as possible.

Sadly, the naive probing we currently recommend users do does not
accomplish that - using the same success-optimized pathfinder when
sending as when probing results in always testing the same (good)
path over and over and over again.

Instead, here, we add a `probing_diversity_penalty_msat` parameter
to the scorer, allowing us to penalize channels for which we
already have recent data. It applies a penalty which scales with
the square of the inverse time since the channel was last updated,
up to one day.

lightning/src/routing/scoring.rs

@@ -475,6 +475,9 @@ where L::Target: Logger {
 	network_graph: G,
 	logger: L,
 	channel_liquidities: HashMap<u64, ChannelLiquidity>,
+	/// The last time we were given via a [`ScoreUpdate`] method. This does not imply that we've
+	/// decayed every liquidity bound up to that time.
+	last_duration_since_epoch: Duration,
 }
 
 /// Parameters for configuring [`ProbabilisticScorer`].
@@ -637,6 +640,22 @@ pub struct ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
 	///
 	/// Default value: false
 	pub linear_success_probability: bool,
+
+	/// In order to ensure we have knowledge for as many paths as possible, when probing it makes
+	/// sense to bias away from channels for which we have very recent data.
+	///
+	/// This value is a penalty that is applied based on the last time that we updated the bounds
+	/// on the available liquidity in a channel. The specified value is the maximum penalty that
+	/// will be applied.
+	///
+	/// It obviously does not make sense to assign a non-0 value here unless you are using the
+	/// pathfinding result for background probing.
+	///
+	/// Specifically, the following penalty is applied
+	/// `probing_diversity_penalty_msat * max(0, (86400 - current time + last update))^2 / 86400^2` is
+	///
+	/// Default value: 0
+	pub probing_diversity_penalty_msat: u64,
 }
 
 impl Default for ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
@@ -652,6 +671,7 @@ impl Default for ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
 			historical_liquidity_penalty_multiplier_msat: 10_000,
 			historical_liquidity_penalty_amount_multiplier_msat: 64,
 			linear_success_probability: false,
+			probing_diversity_penalty_msat: 0,
 		}
 	}
 }
@@ -706,6 +726,7 @@ impl ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters {
 			anti_probing_penalty_msat: 0,
 			considered_impossible_penalty_msat: 0,
 			linear_success_probability: true,
+			probing_diversity_penalty_msat: 0,
 		}
 	}
 }
@@ -823,6 +844,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ProbabilisticScorer<G, L> whe
 			network_graph,
 			logger,
 			channel_liquidities: new_hash_map(),
+			last_duration_since_epoch: Duration::from_secs(0),
 		}
 	}
 
@@ -1141,7 +1163,7 @@ DirectedChannelLiquidity< L, HT, T> {
 	/// Returns a liquidity penalty for routing the given HTLC `amount_msat` through the channel in
 	/// this direction.
 	fn penalty_msat(
-		&self, amount_msat: u64, inflight_htlc_msat: u64,
+		&self, amount_msat: u64, inflight_htlc_msat: u64, last_duration_since_epoch: Duration,
 		score_params: &ProbabilisticScoringFeeParameters,
 	) -> u64 {
 		let total_inflight_amount_msat = amount_msat.saturating_add(inflight_htlc_msat);
@@ -1216,6 +1238,13 @@ DirectedChannelLiquidity< L, HT, T> {
 			}
 		}
 
+		if score_params.probing_diversity_penalty_msat != 0 {
+			let time_since_update = last_duration_since_epoch.saturating_sub(*self.last_updated);
+			let mul = Duration::from_secs(60 * 60 * 24).saturating_sub(time_since_update).as_secs();
+			let penalty = score_params.probing_diversity_penalty_msat.saturating_mul(mul * mul);
+			res = res.saturating_add(penalty / ((60 * 60 * 24) * (60 * 60 * 24)));
+		}
+
 		res
 	}
 
@@ -1365,11 +1394,12 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreLookUp for Probabilistic
 		}
 
 		let capacity_msat = usage.effective_capacity.as_msat();
+		let time = self.last_duration_since_epoch;
 		self.channel_liquidities
 			.get(scid)
 			.unwrap_or(&ChannelLiquidity::new(Duration::ZERO))
 			.as_directed(&source, &target, capacity_msat)
-			.penalty_msat(usage.amount_msat, usage.inflight_htlc_msat, score_params)
+			.penalty_msat(usage.amount_msat, usage.inflight_htlc_msat, time, score_params)
 			.saturating_add(anti_probing_penalty_msat)
 			.saturating_add(base_penalty_msat)
 	}
@@ -1415,6 +1445,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreUpdate for Probabilistic
 			}
 			if at_failed_channel { break; }
 		}
+		self.last_duration_since_epoch = duration_since_epoch;
 	}
 
 	fn payment_path_successful(&mut self, path: &Path, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
@@ -1442,6 +1473,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreUpdate for Probabilistic
 					hop.short_channel_id);
 			}
 		}
+		self.last_duration_since_epoch = duration_since_epoch;
 	}
 
 	fn probe_failed(&mut self, path: &Path, short_channel_id: u64, duration_since_epoch: Duration) {
@@ -1473,6 +1505,7 @@ impl<G: Deref<Target = NetworkGraph<L>>, L: Deref> ScoreUpdate for Probabilistic
 			liquidity.min_liquidity_offset_msat != 0 || liquidity.max_liquidity_offset_msat != 0 ||
 				liquidity.liquidity_history.has_datapoints()
 		});
+		self.last_duration_since_epoch = duration_since_epoch;
 	}
 }
 
@@ -1906,15 +1939,20 @@ ReadableArgs<(ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)> for ProbabilisticScore
 		r: &mut R, args: (ProbabilisticScoringDecayParameters, G, L)
 	) -> Result<Self, DecodeError> {
 		let (decay_params, network_graph, logger) = args;
-		let mut channel_liquidities = new_hash_map();
+		let mut channel_liquidities: HashMap<u64, ChannelLiquidity> = new_hash_map();
 		read_tlv_fields!(r, {
 			(0, channel_liquidities, required),
 		});
+		let mut last_duration_since_epoch = Duration::from_secs(0);
+		for (_, liq) in channel_liquidities.iter() {
+			last_duration_since_epoch = cmp::max(last_duration_since_epoch, liq.last_updated);
+		}
 		Ok(Self {
 			decay_params,
 			network_graph,
 			logger,
 			channel_liquidities,
+			last_duration_since_epoch,
 		})
 	}
 }