Public Health vs Scientists

Jens von Bergmann 17/03/2021

This repo has the code for a somewhat popular xkcd-style graphic I made. Anyone is welcome to use and adapt the code or graphic for their own purposes. In particular, people are welcome to adapt this to their local setting, either by translating or by changing the title from “Public Health” to “Politicians” as may be appropriate for in some jurisdictions.

This code uses the xkcd R package to produce an xkcd-style graphic.

library(tidyverse)
library(xkcd)

set.seed(123)

# generate the exponential curves with random noise
data <- tibble(x=seq(0,100)) %>%
  mutate(y=exp(0.05*x)) %>%
  mutate(xend=lead(x),
         yend=lead(y)) %>%
  mutate(yy=y*runif(nrow(.),0.95,1.05))

# boxes for highlighting different "phases" of exponential growth
boxes <- bind_rows(
  tibble(xmin=5,xmax=35,ymin=-2,ymax=10,x=20,y=20,
         l1="Going\ndown",l2="Exponential\ngrowth"),
  tibble(xmin=47,xmax=78,ymin=8,ymax=45,x=55,y=55,
         l1="Under\ncontrol",l2="Exponential\ngrowth"),
  tibble(xmin=83,xmax=100,ymin=70,ymax=140,x=70,y=130,
         l1="OMG\nExponential\ngrowth!",l2="Exponential\ngrowth")
) %>%
  pivot_longer(c("l1","l2"))

# stick men for decoration
ratioxy=0.8
dataman <- data.frame( x= 25, y=120,
                       scale = 15 ,
                       ratioxy = ratioxy,
                       angleofspine =  -pi/2  ,
                       anglerighthumerus = c(-pi/6, -pi/6),
                       anglelefthumerus = c(-pi/2 - pi/6, -pi/2 - pi/6),
                       anglerightradius = c(pi/5, -pi/5),
                       angleleftradius = c(pi/5, -pi/5),
                       angleleftleg = 3*pi/2  + pi / 12 ,
                       anglerightleg = 3*pi/2  - pi / 12,
                       angleofneck = runif(1, 3*pi/2-pi/10, 3*pi/2+pi/10),
                       name=c("l1","l2"))
mapping <- aes(x,  y,
                scale,ratioxy,angleofspine,
               anglerighthumerus,anglelefthumerus,anglerightradius,
               angleleftradius,angleleftleg,anglerightleg,angleofneck)

ggplot(data) +
  geom_line(aes(x=x,y=yy),size=1) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks=NULL,minor_breaks = NULL) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks=NULL,minor_breaks = NULL) +
  theme_xkcd() +
  theme(strip.text = element_text(size = 20)) +
  xkcdaxis(xrange=c(0,100),yrange=c(0,150)) +
  xkcdrect(data=boxes,aes(xmin=xmin,xmax=xmax,ymin=ymin,ymax=ymax),colour="black",fill=NA) +
  geom_text(data=boxes,aes(x=x,y=y,label=value),family="xkcd",size=4) +
  xkcdman(mapping,dataman) +
  labs(x=NULL,y=NULL) +
  facet_wrap("name",labeller = as_labeller(c(l1="Public Health",l2="Scientists")))

Omicron version

library(tidyverse)
library(xkcd)

set.seed(123)

data <- tibble(x=seq(0,100)) %>%
  mutate(y=exp(0.05*x)) %>%
  mutate(xend=lead(x),
         yend=lead(y)) %>%
  mutate(yy=y*runif(nrow(.),0.95,1.05)) %>%
  mutate(wt=50*exp(-0.01*x)**runif(nrow(.),0.95,1.05))

# boxes for highlighting different "phases" of exponential growth
boxes <- bind_rows(
  tibble(xmin=5,xmax=35,ymin=-2,ymax=10,x=20,y=17, name = "l2",value="Omicron"),
  tibble(xmin=47,xmax=75,ymin=8,ymax=38,x=58,y=32, name = "l2",value="Omicron"),
  tibble(xmin=83,xmax=100,ymin=70,ymax=150,x=70,y=130, name = "l2",value="Omicron"),
  tibble(xmin=5,xmax=35,ymin=35,ymax=55,x=20,y=65, name = "l1",value="We are\ndifferent"),
  tibble(xmin=47,xmax=78,ymin=35,ymax=75,x=58,y=65, name = "l1",value="But it's\nmilder"),
  tibble(xmin=83,xmax=100,ymin=70,ymax=150,x=70,y=130, name = "l1",value="OMG\nOmicron!"),
) 

# stick men for decoration
ratioxy=0.8
dataman <- data.frame( x= 25, y=120,
                       scale = 15 ,
                       ratioxy = ratioxy,
                       angleofspine =  -pi/2  ,
                       anglerighthumerus = c(-pi/6, -pi/6),
                       anglelefthumerus = c(-pi/2 - pi/6, -pi/2 - pi/6),
                       anglerightradius = c(pi/5, -pi/5),
                       angleleftradius = c(pi/5, -pi/5),
                       angleleftleg = 3*pi/2  + pi / 12 ,
                       anglerightleg = 3*pi/2  - pi / 12,
                       angleofneck = runif(1, 3*pi/2-pi/10, 3*pi/2+pi/10),
                       name=c("l1","l2"))
mapping <- aes(x,  y,
                scale,ratioxy,angleofspine,
               anglerighthumerus,anglelefthumerus,anglerightradius,
               angleleftradius,angleleftleg,anglerightleg,angleofneck)

ggplot(data) +
  geom_line(aes(x=x,y=yy+wt),size=1) +
  geom_line(aes(x=x,y=yy),size=0.5,linetype="dashed") +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks=NULL,minor_breaks = NULL) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks=NULL,minor_breaks = NULL) +
  theme_xkcd() +
  theme(strip.text = element_text(size = 20)) +
  xkcdaxis(xrange=c(0,100),yrange=c(0,150)) +
  xkcdrect(data=boxes,aes(xmin=xmin,xmax=xmax,ymin=ymin,ymax=ymax),colour="black",fill=NA) +
  geom_text(data=boxes,aes(x=x,y=y,label=value),family="xkcd",size=4) +
  xkcdman(mapping,dataman) +
  labs(x=NULL,y=NULL) +
  facet_wrap("name",labeller = as_labeller(c(l1="Public Health",l2="Scientists")))