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IRV non-monotonicity number is a lower bound #19

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monotonicity_criterion#Estimated_likelihood_of_IRV_lacking_monotonicity says

"15% probability. In elections with more than 3 candidates, these probabilities tend to increase eventually toward 100%"

Smith's page says "For now, let's consider only 3-candidate IRV elections."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monotonicity_criterion#Estimated_likelihood_of_IRV_lacking_monotonicity says 

"15% probability. In elections with more than 3 candidates, these probabilities tend to increase eventually toward 100%"

Smith's page says "For now, let's consider only 3-candidate IRV elections."
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