Skip to content

Commit

Permalink
Bug fix/storm speed (#104)
Browse files Browse the repository at this point in the history 
* correction for speed and bearing calculation, previously applied computation uniformly for all unique datetimes even though they can be across different forecasts

* updated the modified reference files. best-track is unchanged except for the first time which was previously set to be 0, now the next time is propagated backward

* handling special case where no previous times available for new forecast

* make sure ^Cw is not larger than the maximum radii of the strongest isotach

* reformat

* Fix tests

* check for negative time intervals and use abs for computing speed and forward_azimuth for computing bearing (usually inverse_azimuth)

---------

Co-authored-by: SorooshMani-NOAA <soroosh.mani@noaa.gov>
  • Loading branch information
@WPringle @SorooshMani-NOAA
WPringle and SorooshMani-NOAA authored Jul 25, 2024
1 parent 4688531 commit 201daf0
Show file tree
Hide file tree
Showing 24 changed files with 25,880 additions and 25,846 deletions.
80 changes: 57 additions & 23 deletions stormevents/nhc/track.py
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1072,40 +1072,60 @@ def __compute_velocity(data: DataFrame) -> DataFrame:
for advisory in pandas.unique(data["advisory"]):
advisory_data = data.loc[data["advisory"] == advisory]

indices = numpy.array(
[
numpy.where(advisory_data["datetime"] == unique_datetime)[0][0]
for unique_datetime in pandas.unique(advisory_data["datetime"])
]
)
indices = advisory_data.index
shifted_indices = numpy.roll(indices, 1)
shifted_indices[0] = 0

indices = advisory_data.index[indices]
shifted_indices = advisory_data.index[shifted_indices]
shifted_indices[0] = indices[0]

# check for negative time shifts which indicate new forecasts
# and update this with the last previously available time
for counter, ind in enumerate(zip(indices, shifted_indices)):
this_time = advisory_data.loc[ind[0], "datetime"]
shift_time = advisory_data.loc[ind[1], "datetime"]
if shift_time > this_time:
# update shift index
if (advisory_data["datetime"] < this_time).sum() == 0:
shifted_indices[counter] = advisory_data["datetime"][
advisory_data["datetime"] > this_time
].index[0]
else:
shifted_indices[counter] = advisory_data["datetime"][
advisory_data["datetime"] < this_time
].index[-1]

_, inverse_azimuths, distances = geodetic.inv(
forward_azimuths, inverse_azimuths, distances = geodetic.inv(
advisory_data.loc[indices, "longitude"],
advisory_data.loc[indices, "latitude"],
advisory_data.loc[shifted_indices, "longitude"],
advisory_data.loc[shifted_indices, "latitude"],
)

intervals = advisory_data.loc[indices, "datetime"].diff()
speeds = distances / (intervals / pandas.to_timedelta(1, "s"))
bearings = pandas.Series(inverse_azimuths % 360, index=speeds.index)

for index in indices:
cluster_index = (
advisory_data["datetime"] == advisory_data.loc[index, "datetime"]
intervals = (
(
advisory_data.loc[indices, "datetime"].values
- advisory_data.loc[shifted_indices, "datetime"].values
)
advisory_data.loc[cluster_index, "speed"] = speeds[index]
advisory_data.loc[cluster_index, "direction"] = bearings[index]
.astype("timedelta64[s]")
.astype(float)
)
speeds = pandas.Series(distances / abs(intervals), index=indices)
bearings = pandas.Series(inverse_azimuths % 360, index=indices)
# use forward azimuths for negative intervals
bearings[intervals < 0] = pandas.Series(
forward_azimuths[intervals < 0] % 360, index=indices[intervals < 0]
)
bearings[pandas.isna(speeds)] = numpy.nan
# fill in nans carrying forward, because it is same valid time
# and forecast but different isotach.
# then fill nans backwards to handle the first time
speeds.ffill(inplace=True)
bearings.ffill(inplace=True)
speeds.bfill(inplace=True)
bearings.bfill(inplace=True)
advisory_data["speed"] = speeds
advisory_data["direction"] = bearings

data.loc[data["advisory"] == advisory] = advisory_data

data.loc[pandas.isna(data["speed"]), "speed"] = 0

return data

@property
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1352,7 +1372,21 @@ def clamp(n, minn, maxn):
or forecast.loc[valid_index, "forecast_hours"].iloc[0] == 0
):
continue
forecast.loc[valid_index, "radius_of_maximum_winds"] = rmw
# make sure rolling rmw is not larger than the maximum radii of the strongest isotach
# this problem usually comes from the rolling average
max_isotach_radii = isotach_radii.loc[valid_index].iloc[-1].max()
if rmw < max_isotach_radii or numpy.isnan(max_isotach_radii):
forecast.loc[valid_index, "radius_of_maximum_winds"] = rmw
# in case it does not come from rolling average just set to be Vr/Vmax ratio of max_isotach_radii
if (
forecast.loc[valid_index, "radius_of_maximum_winds"].iloc[-1]
> max_isotach_radii
):
forecast.loc[valid_index, "radius_of_maximum_winds"] = (
max_isotach_radii
* forecast.loc[valid_index, "isotach_radius"].iloc[-1]
/ forecast.loc[valid_index, "max_sustained_wind_speed"].iloc[-1]
)

# fill OFCL background pressure with the first entry from 0-hr CARQ background pressure (at sea level)
forecast.loc[radp_missing, "background_pressure"] = carq_ref[
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion stormevents/stormevent.py
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -516,7 +516,7 @@ def __repr__(self) -> str:
return (
f"{self.__class__.__name__}("
f"name={repr(self.name)}, "
f"year={repr(self.year)}, "
f"year={int(self.year)}, "
f"start_date={repr(self.start_date)}, "
f"end_date={repr(self.end_date)}"
f")"
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_storm_event_track/florence2018.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 179W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, SIX, 2
AL, 06, 2018083018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 190W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 270, 6, SIX, 3
AL, 06, 2018083100, , BEST, 0, 131N, 202W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 284, 6, SIX, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_storm_event_track/ida2021.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 179W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, SIX, 2
AL, 06, 2018083018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 190W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 270, 6, SIX, 3
AL, 06, 2018083100, , BEST, 0, 131N, 202W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 284, 6, SIX, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/florence2018.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 128N, 169W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, INVEST, 1
AL, 06, 2018083012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 179W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, SIX, 2
AL, 06, 2018083018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 190W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 270, 6, SIX, 3
AL, 06, 2018083100, , BEST, 0, 131N, 202W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 284, 6, SIX, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/harvey2017.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 09, 2017081606, , BEST, 0, 137N, 458W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, ,,, 0, 0,, 1
AL, 09, 2017081606, , BEST, 0, 137N, 458W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, ,,, 270, 8,, 1
AL, 09, 2017081612, , BEST, 0, 137N, 474W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 8, INVEST, 2
AL, 09, 2017081618, , BEST, 0, 136N, 490W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 267, 8, INVEST, 3
AL, 09, 2017081700, , BEST, 0, 136N, 506W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 8, INVEST, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/ike2008.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 09, 2008090106, , BEST, 0, 172N, 370W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 09, 2008090106, , BEST, 0, 172N, 370W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 250, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 274, 7, INVEST, 1
AL, 09, 2008090112, , BEST, 0, 173N, 384W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 75, 0, 60, 1011, 250, 90, 40, 0, L, 0, , 274, 7, NINE, 2
AL, 09, 2008090118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 399W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 110, 0, 75, 1011, 250, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 278, 7, IKE, 3
AL, 09, 2008090200, , BEST, 0, 178N, 413W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 120, 0, 90, 1011, 250, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 283, 7, IKE, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/irene2011.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 09, 2011082100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 590W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 45, 1010, 175, 60, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRENE, 1
AL, 09, 2011082100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 590W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 45, 1010, 175, 60, 55, 0, L, 0, , 303, 9, IRENE, 1
AL, 09, 2011082106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 606W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 0, 0, 80, 1010, 175, 50, 55, 0, L, 0, , 303, 9, IRENE, 2
AL, 09, 2011082112, , BEST, 0, 168N, 622W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 0, 0, 70, 1010, 175, 50, 55, 0, L, 0, , 298, 9, IRENE, 3
AL, 09, 2011082118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 637W, 50, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 20, 0, 70, 1010, 175, 50, 55, 0, L, 0, , 296, 8, IRENE, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/irma2017.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 11, 2017083000, , BEST, 0, 161N, 269W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 11, 2017083000, , BEST, 0, 161N, 269W, 30, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 274, 7, INVEST, 1
AL, 11, 2017083006, , BEST, 0, 162N, 283W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 274, 7, INVEST, 2
AL, 11, 2017083012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 297W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 20, 50, 0, L, 0, , 274, 7, IRMA, 3
AL, 11, 2017083018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 308W, 50, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1011, 200, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 270, 5, IRMA, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/isabel2003.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 13, 2003090600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 314W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, ,,, 0, 0,, 1
AL, 13, 2003090600, , BEST, 0, 138N, 314W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, ,,, 275, 7,, 1
AL, 13, 2003090606, , BEST, 0, 139N, 327W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, ,,, 275, 7,, 2
AL, 13, 2003090612, , BEST, 0, 136N, 339W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 75, 1012, 150, 25, 0, 0, ,,, 256, 6,, 3
AL, 13, 2003090618, , BEST, 0, 134N, 349W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 25, 75, 1012, 150, 25, 0, 0, ,,, 259, 5,, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/maria2017.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 15, 2017091612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 497W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 15, 2017091612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 497W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 270, 10, INVEST, 1
AL, 15, 2017091618, , BEST, 0, 122N, 517W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 150, 40, 50, 0, L, 0, , 270, 10, FIFTEEN, 2
AL, 15, 2017091700, , BEST, 0, 124N, 531W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 40, 1012, 150, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 278, 7, MARIA, 3
AL, 15, 2017091706, , BEST, 0, 128N, 544W, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 40, 0, 50, 1010, 150, 20, 65, 0, L, 0, , 288, 7, MARIA, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/michael2018.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 14, 2018100618, , BEST, 0, 178N, 866W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 90, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 14, 2018100618, , BEST, 0, 178N, 866W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 90, 35, 0, L, 0, , 316, 2, INVEST, 1
AL, 14, 2018100700, , BEST, 0, 181N, 869W, 25, 1004, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 90, 35, 0, L, 0, , 316, 2, FOURTEEN, 2
AL, 14, 2018100706, , BEST, 0, 184N, 868W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 120, 40, 0, L, 0, , 18, 2, FOURTEEN, 3
AL, 14, 2018100712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 864W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 180, 0, 0, 1009, 270, 120, 40, 0, L, 0, , 44, 3, FOURTEEN, 4
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion tests/data/reference/test_vortex_track/sandy2012.fort.22
View file
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
AL, 18, 2012102118, , BEST, 0, 143N, 774W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 150, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, 1
AL, 18, 2012102118, , BEST, 0, 143N, 774W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 150, 35, 0, L, 0, , 224, 3, INVEST, 1
AL, 18, 2012102200, , BEST, 0, 139N, 778W, 25, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 150, 35, 0, L, 0, , 224, 3, INVEST, 2
AL, 18, 2012102206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 782W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 225, 75, 35, 0, L, 0, , 224, 3, INVEST, 3
AL, 18, 2012102212, , BEST, 0, 131N, 786W, 30, 1002, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 250, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 224, 3, EIGHTEEN, 4
Expand Down
Loading

0 comments on commit 201daf0

Please sign in to comment.