BART: add partial dependence plots and individual conditional expecta…

…tion plots (#5091)

* add utils for prediction and interpretability

* remove file

* add tests

* test mixed response

* fix tests

* update release notes

* remove unused import

RELEASE-NOTES.md

@@ -15,6 +15,8 @@
 - `pm.DensityDist` no longer accepts the `logp` as its first position argument. It is now an optional keyword argument. If you pass a callable as the first positional argument, a `TypeError` will be raised (see [5026](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5026)).
 - `pm.DensityDist` now accepts distribution parameters as positional arguments. Passing them as a dictionary in the `observed` keyword argument is no longer supported and will raise an error (see [5026](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5026)).
 - The signature of the `logp` and `random` functions that can be passed into a `pm.DensityDist` has been changed (see [5026](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5026)).
+- Generalize BART. A BART variable can be combined with other random variables. The `inv_link` argument has been removed (see [4914](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/4914)).
+- Move BART to its own module (see [5058](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5058)).
 - ...
 
 ### New Features
@@ -32,6 +34,8 @@
 - New experimental mass matrix tuning method jitter+adapt_diag_grad. [#5004](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc/pull/5004)
 - `pm.DensityDist` can now accept an optional `logcdf` keyword argument to pass in a function to compute the cummulative density function of the distribution (see [5026](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5026)).
 - `pm.DensityDist` can now accept an optional `get_moment` keyword argument to pass in a function to compute the moment of the distribution (see [5026](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5026)).
+-  BART: add linear response, increase number of trees fitted per step [5044](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5044).
+-  BART: add partial dependence plots and individual conditional expectation plots [5091](https://github.com/pymc-devs/pymc3/pull/5091).
 - ...
 
 ### Maintenance

pymc/bart/__init__.py

@@ -15,5 +15,6 @@
 
 from pymc.bart.bart import BART
 from pymc.bart.pgbart import PGBART
+from pymc.bart.utils import plot_dependence, predict
 
 __all__ = ["BART", "PGBART"]

pymc/bart/bart.py

@@ -41,35 +41,7 @@ def _shape_from_params(self, dist_params, rep_param_idx=1, param_shapes=None):
 
     @classmethod
     def rng_fn(cls, rng=np.random.default_rng(), *args, **kwargs):
-        size = kwargs.pop("size", None)
-        X_new = kwargs.pop("X_new", None)
-        all_trees = cls.all_trees
-        if all_trees:
-
-            if size is None:
-                size = ()
-            elif isinstance(size, int):
-                size = [size]
-
-            flatten_size = 1
-            for s in size:
-                flatten_size *= s
-
-            idx = rng.randint(len(all_trees), size=flatten_size)
-
-            if X_new is None:
-                pred = np.zeros((flatten_size, all_trees[0][0].num_observations))
-                for ind, p in enumerate(pred):
-                    for tree in all_trees[idx[ind]]:
-                        p += tree.predict_output()
-            else:
-                pred = np.zeros((flatten_size, X_new.shape[0]))
-                for ind, p in enumerate(pred):
-                    for tree in all_trees[idx[ind]]:
-                        p += np.array([tree.predict_out_of_sample(x, cls.m) for x in X_new])
-            return pred.reshape((*size, -1))
-        else:
-            return np.full_like(cls.Y, cls.Y.mean())
+        return np.full_like(cls.Y, cls.Y.mean())
 
 
 bart = BARTRV()
@@ -117,15 +89,13 @@ def __new__(
         **kwargs,
     ):
 
-        cls.all_trees = []
         X, Y = preprocess_XY(X, Y)
 
         bart_op = type(
             f"BART_{name}",
             (BARTRV,),
             dict(
                 name="BART",
-                all_trees=cls.all_trees,
                 inplace=False,
                 initval=Y.mean(),
                 X=X,

pymc/bart/pgbart.py

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@
 
 import logging
 
+from copy import copy
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Tuple
 
 import aesara
@@ -121,7 +122,7 @@ class PGBART(ArrayStepShared):
     name = "bartsampler"
     default_blocked = False
     generates_stats = True
-    stats_dtypes = [{"variable_inclusion": np.ndarray}]
+    stats_dtypes = [{"variable_inclusion": np.ndarray, "bart_trees": np.ndarray}]
 
     def __init__(self, vars=None, num_particles=10, max_stages=100, batch="auto", model=None):
         _log.warning("BART is experimental. Use with caution.")
@@ -159,6 +160,7 @@ def __init__(self, vars=None, num_particles=10, max_stages=100, batch="auto", mo
             tree_id=0,
             leaf_node_value=self.init_mean / self.m,
             idx_data_points=np.arange(self.num_observations, dtype="int32"),
+            m=self.m,
         )
         self.mean = fast_mean()
         self.linear_fit = fast_linear_fit()
@@ -169,8 +171,6 @@ def __init__(self, vars=None, num_particles=10, max_stages=100, batch="auto", mo
 
         self.tune = True
         self.idx = 0
-        self.iter = 0
-        self.sum_trees = []
         self.batch = batch
 
         if self.batch == "auto":
@@ -193,12 +193,12 @@ def __init__(self, vars=None, num_particles=10, max_stages=100, batch="auto", mo
                 self.init_likelihood,
             )
             self.all_particles.append(p)
+        self.all_trees = np.array([p.tree for p in self.all_particles])
         super().__init__(vars, shared)
 
     def astep(self, q: RaveledVars) -> Tuple[RaveledVars, List[Dict[str, Any]]]:
         point_map_info = q.point_map_info
         sum_trees_output = q.data
-
         variable_inclusion = np.zeros(self.num_variates, dtype="int")
 
         if self.idx == self.m:
@@ -212,7 +212,6 @@ def astep(self, q: RaveledVars) -> Tuple[RaveledVars, List[Dict[str, Any]]]:
             particles = self.init_particles(tree_id)
             # Compute the sum of trees without the tree we are attempting to replace
             self.sum_trees_output_noi = sum_trees_output - particles[0].tree.predict_output()
-            self.idx += 1
 
             # The old tree is not growing so we update the weights only once.
             self.update_weight(particles[0])
@@ -258,6 +257,7 @@ def astep(self, q: RaveledVars) -> Tuple[RaveledVars, List[Dict[str, Any]]]:
             # Get the new tree and update
             new_particle = np.random.choice(particles, p=normalized_weights)
             new_tree = new_particle.tree
+            self.all_trees[self.idx] = new_tree
             new_particle.log_weight = new_particle.old_likelihood_logp - self.log_num_particles
             self.all_particles[tree_id] = new_particle
             sum_trees_output = self.sum_trees_output_noi + new_tree.predict_output()
@@ -268,17 +268,11 @@ def astep(self, q: RaveledVars) -> Tuple[RaveledVars, List[Dict[str, Any]]]:
                     self.ssv = SampleSplittingVariable(self.split_prior)
             else:
                 self.batch = max(1, int(self.m * 0.2))
-                self.iter += 1
-                self.sum_trees.append(new_tree)
-                if not self.iter % self.m:
-                    # XXX update the all_trees variable in BARTRV to be used in the rng_fn method
-                    # this fails for chains > 1 as the variable is not shared between proccesses
-                    self.bart.all_trees.append(self.sum_trees)
-                    self.sum_trees = []
                 for index in new_particle.used_variates:
                     variable_inclusion[index] += 1
+            self.idx += 1
 
-        stats = {"variable_inclusion": variable_inclusion}
+        stats = {"variable_inclusion": variable_inclusion, "bart_trees": copy(self.all_trees)}
         sum_trees_output = RaveledVars(sum_trees_output, point_map_info)
         return sum_trees_output, [stats]
 
@@ -526,11 +520,11 @@ def linear_fit(X, Y):
         xbar = np.sum(X) / n
         ybar = np.sum(Y) / n
 
-        if np.all(X == xbar):
-            b = 0
+        den = X @ X - n * xbar ** 2
+        if den > 1e-10:
+            b = (X @ Y - n * xbar * ybar) / den
         else:
-            b = (X @ Y - n * xbar * ybar) / (X @ X - n * xbar ** 2)
-
+            b = 0
         a = ybar - b * xbar
         Y_fit = a + b * X
         return Y_fit, [a, b, 0]

pymc/bart/tree.py

@@ -45,21 +45,23 @@ class Tree:
         Identifier used to get the previous tree in the ParticleGibbs algorithm used in BART.
     num_observations : int
         Number of observations used to fit BART.
-
+    m : int
+        Number of trees
 
     Parameters
     ----------
     tree_id : int, optional
     num_observations : int, optional
     """
 
-    def __init__(self, tree_id=0, num_observations=0):
+    def __init__(self, tree_id=0, num_observations=0, m=0):
         self.tree_structure = {}
         self.num_nodes = 0
         self.idx_leaf_nodes = []
         self.idx_prunable_split_nodes = []
         self.tree_id = tree_id
         self.num_observations = num_observations
+        self.m = m
 
     def __getitem__(self, index):
         return self.get_node(index)
@@ -94,16 +96,14 @@ def predict_output(self):
 
         return output.astype(aesara.config.floatX)
 
-    def predict_out_of_sample(self, X, m):
+    def predict_out_of_sample(self, X):
         """
         Predict output of tree for an unobserved point x.
 
         Parameters
         ----------
         X : numpy array
             Unobserved point
-        m : int
-            Number of trees
 
         Returns
         -------
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ def predict_out_of_sample(self, X, m):
             return leaf_node.value
         else:
             x = X[split_variable].item()
-            y_x = (linear_params[0] + linear_params[1] * x) / m
+            y_x = (linear_params[0] + linear_params[1] * x) / self.m
             return y_x + linear_params[2]
 
     def _traverse_tree(self, x, node_index=0, split_variable=None):
@@ -170,20 +170,22 @@ def grow_tree(self, index_leaf_node, new_split_node, new_left_node, new_right_no
             self.idx_prunable_split_nodes.remove(parent_index)
 
     @staticmethod
-    def init_tree(tree_id, leaf_node_value, idx_data_points):
+    def init_tree(tree_id, leaf_node_value, idx_data_points, m):
         """
 
         Parameters
         ----------
         tree_id
         leaf_node_value
         idx_data_points
+        m : int
+            number of trees in BART
 
         Returns
         -------
 
         """
-        new_tree = Tree(tree_id, len(idx_data_points))
+        new_tree = Tree(tree_id, len(idx_data_points), m)
         new_tree[0] = LeafNode(index=0, value=leaf_node_value, idx_data_points=idx_data_points)
         return new_tree