Skip to content

Commit

Permalink
paper.md: integrates C. Vernon remarks
Browse files Browse the repository at this point in the history
  • Loading branch information
spjuhel committed Jun 6, 2024
1 parent 0960286 commit ecd79c7
Showing 1 changed file with 19 additions and 35 deletions.
54 changes: 19 additions & 35 deletions paper.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ tags:
authors:
- name: Samuel Juhel
orcid: 0000-0001-8801-3890
equal-contrib: true
affiliation: "1, 2" # (Multiple affiliations must be quoted)
affiliations:
- name: CIRED, France
Expand All @@ -35,15 +34,15 @@ between multiple regions and sectors. Recent research in the field argues in
favor of using more Agent-Based oriented model, associated with an increase in
the complexity of the mechanisms represented [@coronese-2022-econom-impac].
However, the assumptions and hypotheses underlying these economic mechanisms
vary a lot, and sometime lack transparency, making it difficult to properly
vary a lot, and sometimes lack transparency, making it difficult to properly
interpret and compare results across models, even more so when the code used is
not published or undocumented.

The Adaptive Regional Input-Output model (or ARIO) is an hybrid input-output /
agent-based economic model, designed to compute indirect costs consequent to
economic shocks. Its first version dates back to 2008 and was originally
developed to assess the indirect costs of natural disasters
[@hallegatte-2008-adapt-region]. ARIO is now a well-established and pivotal
[@hallegatte-2008-adapt-region]. ARIO is now a well-established and a pivotal
model in its field, has been used in multiple studies, and has seen several
extensions or adaptations [@wu-2011-region-indir; @ranger-2010-asses-poten;
@henriet-2012-firm-networ; @hallegatte-2013-model-role;
Expand All @@ -52,14 +51,14 @@ extensions or adaptations [@wu-2011-region-indir; @ranger-2010-asses-poten;
@wang-2020-econom-footp; @wang-2018-quant-spatial].

In ARIO, the economy is modelled as a set of economic sectors and regions, and
we call a specific (region,sector) couple an *industry*. Each industry produces
we call a specific (region, sector) couple an *industry*. Each industry produces
a unique product which is assumed to be the same for all industries of the same
sector. Each industry keeps an inventory of inputs it requires for production.
Each industry answers a total demand consisting of the final demand (from
households, public spendings and private investments) and of the intermediate
demand (from other industries). An initial equilibrium state for the economy is
built based on a multi-regional input-output table. The model can then describe
how the economic, as depicted, responds to a shock (or multiple ones).
how the economy, as depicted, responds to a shock (or multiple ones).

`BoARIO` is an open-source Python package implementing the ARIO model. Its core
purpose is to help support better accessibility, transparency, replicability and
Expand All @@ -68,16 +67,16 @@ comparability in the field of indirect economic impacts modeling.
# Statement of need

Although the ARIO model has been used in multiple studies, and several extensions
exists, only a few implementation of the model or similar ones are openly available.
exists, only a few implementations of the model or similar ones are openly available.
We found the following existing implementations:

- A python implementation of MRIA [@koks-2016-multir-impac], is available on the [personal GitHub repository of E. Koks](https://github.com/ElcoK/MRIA).
- [C. Colon repository](https://github.com/ccolon/disrupt-supply-chain-model/) holds a python implementation of Disrupt Supply Chain [@colon-2020-critic-analy].
- A C++ implementation of the Acclimate model [@otto-2017-model-loss], is available [here](https://github.com/acclimate/acclimate).
- A Matlab implementation of C. Shughrue's model [@shughrue-2020-global-spread], is available on [his repository](https://github.com/chrisshughrue/GlobalUrbanCycloneImpactSimulation).
- The ARIO models version used in [@wang-2020-econom-footp, @guan-2020-global-suppl] are both available on [D. Wang personal repository](https://github.com/DaopingW/)
- A Python implementation of MRIA [@koks-2016-multir-impac].
- A Python implementation of Disrupt Supply Chain [@colon-2020-critic-analy].
- A C++ implementation of the Acclimate model [@otto-2017-model-loss].
- A Matlab implementation of C. Shughrue's model [@shughrue-2020-global-spread].
- The ARIO models version used in [@wang-2020-econom-footp, @guan-2020-global-suppl].

We found that none of these implementation offers a comprehensive documentation, and are generally
We found that none of these implementations offer a comprehensive documentation, and are generally
specific to the case study they were used for. The purpose of the `BoARIO` package is to offer
a generic, documented, easy to use, easy to extend, and replicability-oriented model for indirect impact assessment.

Expand All @@ -91,24 +90,23 @@ simple steps:
The ARIO model relies on Multi-Regional Input-Output Tables (MRIOTs) to define
the initial state of the economy. `BoARIO` was designed to be entirely agnostic
of the MRIOT used, thanks to the `pymrio` package [@stadler2021_Pymrio]. This
aspect notably allows to fully benefit from the increasing number of such tables
are becoming available [@stadler18-exiob; @oecd-2021-oecd-inter;
aspect notably permits full benefit from the increasing availability of such tables [@stadler18-exiob; @oecd-2021-oecd-inter;
@thissen-2018-eureg; @lenzen-2012-mappin-struc].

The package allows for different shocking events to be defined (currently,
shocks on production or shocks on both production and demand, by including a
demand stemming from the reconstruction effort, the inclusion of shocks on demand only
and other types of shock will be added in future versions).
As such, different types of case-study can be conducted (at different scope, for
As such, different types of case studies can be conducted (at different scope, for
multiple or singular events). Users benefit from a precise control on aspects
such as the distribution of the impact towards the different sectors and
regions, the recovery of from the impact, etc. but also from the default
modeling choices common in the corresponding literature. The rationale for detailed
regions, the recovery from the impact, and also from the default
modeling choices common in the corresponding literature. The rationale for the detailed
configuration of the model is "allowing for, but not require".

Simulations log the evolution of each variable of interest (production,
production capacity, intermediate demand, reconstruction demand, etc.) at each
step and for each industry, in `pandas DataFrames` objects, allowing in depth
step and for each industry, in `pandas DataFrame` objects, allowing in depth
descriptions and understanding of the economic responses. The package can be
used "live", e.g. in a Jupyter Notebook, as well as in large simulation
pipelines, for instance using the `Snakemake` package from @koester-2012-snakem-scalab[^1].
Expand All @@ -126,44 +124,30 @@ documentation](https://spjuhel.github.io/BoARIO/) (where a more in depth
description is available), offers an accessible interface for researchers with
limited programming knowledge. It also aims to be modular and extensible to
include additional economic mechanisms in future versions. Finally, its API aims
at making it inter-operable with other modeling software: for instance the `CLIMADA`
at making it interoperable with other modeling software: for instance the `CLIMADA`
platform [@gabriela-aznar-siguan-2023-8383171] to which `BoARIO` is in the
process of being integrated.

`BoARIO` is at the core of its author's PhD thesis, and was notably used in
[@juhel-2023-robus], in review process. Other notable ongoing projects,
are:
- an evaluation of the indirect costs of future floods at the global scope and
comparing its results to similar studies using the Acclimate and MRIA models
[@willner-2018-global-econom; @koks-2019-macroec-impac].
- a study on the compounding effect of indirect impacts from multiple events,
using time-series of tropical cyclones generated with `CLIMADA`, and comparing
the effect of considering events as isolated or consecutive.

# Status

`BoARIO` is released under the open-source GPL-3.0 license and is currently
developed by Samuel Juhel. The core of its development was made over the course
of a PhD at CIRED and LMD, under the supervision of Vincent Viguié and Fabio
D'Andrea, and funded by ADEME (the french agency for transition).

`BoARIO` can be installed from pip or conda using:
`BoARIO` can be installed from PyPi or Conda-Forge using:

pip install boario

conda install -c conda-forge boario

Integration tests can be run using `pytest`.

Further improvements, notably the implementation of additional economic mechanisms or variations of existing ones are already planned.

# Acknowledgements

I wish to acknowledge Vincent Viguié and Fabio D'Andrea for their support in the
development of `BoARIO` during his PhD, as well as Adrien Delahais for his
feedbacks on the model use. I also want to thank David N. Bresch for indirectly
inspiring me to develop a package for more than just my personal use, and
Alessio Ciullo, for its interest in the package, its valuable suggestions and
Alessio Ciullo, for their interest and valuable suggestions as well as
the work done to integrate `BoARIO` to `CLIMADA`.

# References

0 comments on commit ecd79c7

Please sign in to comment.