This repository contains the models used in the Open Philanthropy report "Semi-informative priors over AI timelines".

The three most important files are the following:

• functions.py contains the functions that correspond to the models used in the report.
• sections.py runs the models with the particular inputs that are used in the report. Each function in this file corresponds to a particular section or table in the report.
• print_output.py runs every function in sections.py. You can run this file to see the results of all calculations in order.

test_bayesian_frequentist_equivalence.py was used to check the correctness of some of the functions in functions.py.

webapp_frontend.py contains the code for the web application at aipriors.com, which is a user-friendly interface to the most important parts of the model.