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# CovidGlobal
Code & model files for Rahmandad, Lim & Sterman (2020), Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting across 86 nations: implications for projections and control (formerly: Estimating the global spread of COVID-19)
Code & model files for Rahmandad, Lim & Sterman (2020), Behavioral Dynamics of COVID-19: Estimating Under-Reporting, Multiple Waves, and Adherence Fatigue Across 91 Nations (formerly: Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting across 86 nations: implications for projections and control)

For any questions please contact [Tse Yang Lim](mailto:tylim@mit.edu)

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### Data
Contains Vensim data files (.vdf) used in model estimation, as well as the raw .csv files assembled from various sources ([JHU CSSE](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19), [OWID](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/testing/covid-testing-all-observations.csv), [World Bank](https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx), etc.) that are fed into the data pre-processing algorithm.

### Pre-Print (20200624) Version
Archived version of repo containing files used in the pre-print version of the paper ([SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635047), [MedRxiv](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451v1)), released 24 June 2020.
### Initial Submission (20200803) Version
Archived version of repo containing files used in the first submission of the paper, as of 03 August 2020, as well as the pre-print version of the paper ([SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635047), [MedRxiv](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20139451v1)), released 24 June 2020. Note: files for the updated pre-print are in the current repo version.

### Results
Contains output files from the model estimation presented in the paper, as well as Matlab code used for graphing of results, and output files from various robustness and sensitivity analyses (including additional sensitivity analysis results accompanying Supplement S7).
Contains output files from the model estimation presented in the paper, as well as Matlab code used for graphing of results, and output files from various robustness and sensitivity analyses (including synthetic data validation accompanying Supplement S3, out-of-sample validation results accompanying Supplement S6, and additional sensitivity analysis results accompanying Supplement S7).

### Vensim Files
Contains the main Vensim model file (.mdl) and other supplementary Vensim files used for model estimation (e.g. optimization control, payoff definition, savelist files, and so on). Also includes two sub-models used for further analysis.
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