FIX: do not use subsample index to get actual targets in UnivariatePr…

…obabilitySimulator (#303) * FIX: do not use subsample index to get actual targets in univ.prob.sim. * TEST: update unit test for UnivariateProbabilitySimulator * DOC: update release notes
BCG-X-Official · Sep 22, 2021 · d50418c · d50418c
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diff --git a/RELEASE_NOTES.rst b/RELEASE_NOTES.rst
@@ -10,6 +10,14 @@ fit the underlying crossfit.
 One example where this can be useful is to use only a recent period of a time series as
 the baseline of a simulation.
 
+1.2.1
+~~~~~
+
+- FIX: fix a bug in :class:`.UnivariateProbabilitySimulator` that was introduced in
+  FACET 1.2.0
+- catch up with FACET 1.1.2
+
+
 1.2.0
 ~~~~~
 

diff --git a/src/facet/simulation/_simulation.py b/src/facet/simulation/_simulation.py
@@ -628,7 +628,7 @@ def expected_output(self) -> float:
 
         :return: observed frequency of the positive class
         """
-        actual_outputs = self.sample.target.loc[self.subsample]
+        actual_outputs = self.sample.target
 
         return (actual_outputs == self._positive_class()).sum() / len(actual_outputs)
 

diff --git a/test/test/facet/test_simulation.py b/test/test/facet/test_simulation.py
@@ -505,15 +505,15 @@ def test_univariate_probability_simulation(
     )
 
     index = pd.Index(
-        data=[5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5], name=UnivariateUpliftSimulator.IDX_PARTITION
+        data=[5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5, 8], name=UnivariateUpliftSimulator.IDX_PARTITION
     )
 
     assert simulation_result.baseline == approx(0.5)
 
     assert_series_equal(
         simulation_result.outputs_lower_bound(),
         pd.Series(
-            [0.346255, 0.346255, 0.353697, 0.394167, 0.401895, 0.417372],
+            [0.346255, 0.346255, 0.353697, 0.394167, 0.401895, 0.417372, 0.417372],
             name=UnivariateSimulationResult.COL_LOWER_BOUND,
             index=index,
         ),
@@ -522,7 +522,7 @@ def test_univariate_probability_simulation(
     assert_series_equal(
         simulation_result.outputs_median(),
         pd.Series(
-            [0.460432, 0.450516, 0.469412, 0.488569, 0.492651, 0.507788],
+            [0.460432, 0.450516, 0.469412, 0.488569, 0.492651, 0.507788, 0.507788],
             name=UnivariateSimulationResult.COL_MEDIAN,
             index=index,
         ),
@@ -531,7 +531,7 @@ def test_univariate_probability_simulation(
     assert_series_equal(
         simulation_result.outputs_upper_bound(),
         pd.Series(
-            [0.582565, 0.562096, 0.570590, 0.580023, 0.599714, 0.602303],
+            [0.582565, 0.562096, 0.570590, 0.580023, 0.599714, 0.602303, 0.602303],
             name=UnivariateSimulationResult.COL_UPPER_BOUND,
             index=index,
         ),