Forecast to 2027

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/housing_benefit/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 description: Share of eligible Housing Benefit recipients that participate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.719
-  2024-01-01: 0.786
-  2023-01-01: 0.831
-  2022-01-01: 0.855
-  2021-01-01: 0.879
-  2020-01-01: 0.898
-  2019-01-01: 0.941
+  2025-01-01: 1.0
+  2024-01-01: 1.0
+  2023-01-01: 1.0
+  2022-01-01: 1.0
+  2021-01-01: 1.0
+  2020-01-01: 1.0
+  2019-01-01: 1.0
 metadata:
   label: Housing Benefit take-up rate
   name: HB_takeup

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/income_support/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 description: Share of eligible Income Support recipients that participate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.092
-  2024-01-01: 0.171
-  2023-01-01: 0.237
-  2022-01-01: 0.304
-  2021-01-01: 0.371
-  2020-01-01: 0.435
-  2019-01-01: 0.528
+  2025-01-01: 1.0
+  2024-01-01: 1.0
+  2023-01-01: 1.0
+  2022-01-01: 1.0
+  2021-01-01: 1.0
+  2020-01-01: 1.0
+  2019-01-01: 1.0
 metadata:
   label: Income Support take-up rate
   name: IS_takeup

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/pension_credit/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 description: Share of eligible Pension Credit recipients that participate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.645
-  2024-01-01: 0.638
-  2023-01-01: 0.634
-  2022-01-01: 0.616
-  2021-01-01: 0.63
-  2020-01-01: 0.648
-  2019-01-01: 0.637
+  2025-01-01: 0.463
+  2024-01-01: 0.4524
+  2023-01-01: 0.4483
+  2022-01-01: 0.4207
+  2021-01-01: 0.4239
+  2020-01-01: 0.4273
+  2019-01-01: 0.4261
 metadata:
   label: Pension Credit take-up rate
   name: PC_takeup

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/tax_credits/child_tax_credit/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 description: Share of eligible Child Tax Credit recipients that participate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.514
-  2024-01-01: 0.538
-  2023-01-01: 0.567
-  2022-01-01: 0.601
-  2021-01-01: 0.623
-  2020-01-01: 0.686
-  2019-01-01: 0.745
+  2025-01-01: 1.0
+  2024-01-01: 1.0
+  2023-01-01: 1.0
+  2022-01-01: 1.0
+  2021-01-01: 1.0
+  2020-01-01: 1.0
+  2019-01-01: 1.0
 metadata:
   label: Child Tax Credit take-up rate
   unit: /1

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/tax_credits/working_tax_credit/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
 description: Share of eligible Working Tax Credit recipients that participate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.438
-  2024-01-01: 0.482
-  2023-01-01: 0.512
-  2022-01-01: 0.541
-  2021-01-01: 0.497
-  2020-01-01: 0.597
-  2019-01-01: 0.644
+  2025-01-01: 1.0
+  2024-01-01: 1.0
+  2023-01-01: 1.0
+  2022-01-01: 1.0
+  2021-01-01: 1.0
+  2020-01-01: 1.0
+  2019-01-01: 1.0
 metadata:
   label: Working Tax Credit take-up rate
   name: WTC_takeup

openfisca_uk/parameters/benefit/universal_credit/takeup.yaml

@@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
 description: Universal Credit takeup rate
 values:
-  2025-01-01: 0.652
-  2024-01-01: 0.65
-  2023-01-01: 0.647
-  2022-01-01: 0.644
-  2021-01-01: 0.637
-  2020-01-01: 0.676
-  2019-01-01: 0.571
+  2025-01-01: 0.8717
+  2024-01-01: 0.8637
+  2023-01-01: 0.8555
+  2022-01-01: 0.8472
+  2021-01-01: 0.8366
+  2020-01-01: 0.869
+  2019-01-01: 0.7447
 metadata:
   unit: /1

openfisca_uk/parameters/hmrc/child_benefit/takeup.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+description: Share of eligible Child Benefit recipients that participate
+values:
+  2025-01-01: 0.7588
+  2024-01-01: 0.7616
+  2023-01-01: 0.7625
+  2022-01-01: 0.764
+  2021-01-01: 0.7639
+  2020-01-01: 0.771
+  2019-01-01: 0.7768
+metadata:
+  label: Child Benefit take-up rate
+  name: CB_takeup
+  unit: /1

openfisca_uk/tools/simulation.py

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 from openfisca_uk.entities import *
 import numpy as np
 import warnings
-from openfisca_uk.initial_setup import set_default
+from openfisca_uk.initial_setup import REPO, set_default
 from openfisca_uk.reforms.presets.current_date import use_current_parameters
 from openfisca_uk.reforms.presets.average_parameters import (
     average_parameters as apply_parameter_averaging,
@@ -80,6 +80,7 @@ def __init__(
         duplicate_records: bool = False,
         adjust_weights: bool = True,
         average_parameters: bool = False,
+        add_baseline_benefits: bool = True,
     ):
         if adjust_weights:
             duplicate_records = True
@@ -193,6 +194,25 @@ def close():
                         ).values,
                     )
 
+            # Add baseline benefits
+
+        if add_baseline_benefits:
+            with h5py.File(REPO / "data" / "baseline_benefits.h5", "r") as f:
+                for year in list(range(2019, 2026)):
+                    for benefit in [
+                        "universal_credit",
+                        "pension_credit",
+                        "working_tax_credit",
+                        "child_tax_credit",
+                        "income_support",
+                        "housing_benefit",
+                    ]:
+                        self.simulation.set_input(
+                            f"baseline_has_{benefit}",
+                            year,
+                            np.array(f[f"{year}/{benefit}"]) > 0,
+                        )
+
         if average_parameters:
             self.simulation.tax_benefit_system.parameters = (
                 apply_parameter_averaging(

openfisca_uk/tools/takeup.py

@@ -1,4 +1,20 @@
-from openfisca_uk import parameters
+import os
+from openfisca_uk import REPO, parameters
+from openfisca_uk.tools.simulation import Microsimulation
+import h5py
+
+BENEFITS = [
+    "universal_credit",
+    "pension_credit",
+    "child_benefit",
+    "working_tax_credit",
+    "child_tax_credit",
+    "income_support",
+    "housing_benefit",
+    "JSA_income",
+]
+
+YEARS = list(range(2019, 2026))
 
 
 def add_takeup_parameters():
@@ -8,50 +24,62 @@ def add_takeup_parameters():
 
     from openfisca_uk import Microsimulation
 
-    years = list(range(2019, 2026))
-
     baseline = Microsimulation()
     full_benefit_claimants = Microsimulation()
-    for year in years:
+    for year in YEARS:
         full_benefit_claimants.set_input(
             "claims_all_entitled_benefits",
             year,
             [True] * len(baseline.calc("benunit_id", period=year)),
         )
 
-    VARIABLES = [
-        "universal_credit",
-        "pension_credit",
-        "working_tax_credit",
-        "child_tax_credit",
-        "income_support",
-        "housing_benefit",
-    ]
-
     takeup_parameters = [
         parameters.benefit.universal_credit.takeup,
         parameters.benefit.pension_credit.takeup,
+        parameters.hmrc.child_benefit.takeup,
         parameters.benefit.tax_credits.working_tax_credit.takeup,
         parameters.benefit.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.takeup,
         parameters.benefit.income_support.takeup,
         parameters.benefit.housing_benefit.takeup,
+        parameters.benefit.JSA.income.takeup,
     ]
 
-    for variable, parameter in zip(VARIABLES, takeup_parameters):
+    for variable, parameter in zip(BENEFITS, takeup_parameters):
         parameter.values_list = []
-        for year in years:
+        print(f"{variable}:")
+        for year in YEARS:
             baseline_claimants = (
                 baseline.calc(variable, period=year) > 0
             ).sum()
             maximum_claimants = (
                 full_benefit_claimants.calc(variable, period=year) > 0
             ).sum()
+            takeup_rate = round(baseline_claimants / maximum_claimants, 4)
+            print(
+                f"\t{year}: {baseline_claimants/1e6:.2f}m / {maximum_claimants/1e6:.2f}m = {takeup_rate:.1%}"
+            )
             parameter.update(
-                value=round(baseline_claimants / maximum_claimants, 3),
+                value=takeup_rate,
                 period=f"year:{year}:1",
             )
-        print(f"{variable} benefit takeup parameter:\n\n{parameter}")
+
+    print("PARAMETERS:")
+    for parameter in takeup_parameters:
+        print(f"\t{parameter.name}: \n{parameter}\n\n")
+
+
+def generate_baseline_benefit_variables():
+    baseline = Microsimulation(add_baseline_benefits=False)
+    filepath = REPO / "data" / "baseline_benefits.h5"
+    os.remove(filepath)
+    with h5py.File(filepath, "w") as f:
+        for year in YEARS:
+            for benefit in BENEFITS:
+                f[f"{year}/{benefit}"] = baseline.calc(
+                    benefit, period=year
+                ).values
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":
+    generate_baseline_benefit_variables()
     add_takeup_parameters()

openfisca_uk/variables/government/dwp/JSA_income.py

@@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
         any_unemployed = benunit.any(unemployed_members)
         # Cannot claim Income Support.
         not_on_income_support = benunit("income_support", period) == 0
-        on_legacy_benefits = benunit("claims_legacy_benefits", period)
+        already_claiming = aggr(benunit, period, ["JSA_income_reported"]) > 0
         return (
             hours_eligible
             & all_under_SP_age
             & any_unemployed
             & not_on_income_support
-            & on_legacy_benefits
+            & already_claiming
         )
 
 

openfisca_uk/variables/government/dwp/housing_benefit.py

@@ -17,10 +17,10 @@ class housing_benefit_eligible(Variable):
 
     def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
         social = benunit.any(benunit.members("in_social_housing", period))
-        claims_legacy_benefits = benunit("claims_legacy_benefits", period)
-        return claims_legacy_benefits & (
-            social | benunit("LHA_eligible", period)
+        already_claiming = (
+            aggr(benunit, period, ["housing_benefit_reported"]) > 0
         )
+        return already_claiming & (social | benunit("LHA_eligible", period))
 
 
 class would_claim_HB(Variable):

openfisca_uk/variables/government/dwp/income_support.py

@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
         claims_all_entitled_benefits = benunit(
             "claims_all_entitled_benefits", period
         )
-        baseline = benunit("baseline_has_is", period)
+        baseline = benunit("baseline_has_income_support", period)
         takeup_rate = parameters(period).benefit.housing_benefit.takeup
         return select(
             [reported_is | claims_all_entitled_benefits, ~baseline, True],
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
         )
 
 
-class baseline_has_is(Variable):
+class baseline_has_income_support(Variable):
     label = "Receives Income Support (baseline)"
     entity = BenUnit
     definition_period = YEAR
@@ -105,12 +105,14 @@ def formula(benunit, period, parameters):
         has_carers = aggr(benunit, period, ["is_carer_for_benefits"]) > 0
         none_SP_age = ~benunit.any(benunit.members("is_SP_age", period))
         has_ESA_income = benunit("ESA_income", period) > 0
-        claims_legacy_benefits = benunit("claims_legacy_benefits", period)
+        already_claiming = (
+            aggr(benunit, period, ["income_support_reported"]) > 0
+        )
         return (
             (has_carers | lone_parent_with_young_child)
             & none_SP_age
             & ~has_ESA_income
-            & claims_legacy_benefits
+            & already_claiming
         )